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DRC: Prediction -- Trip to Cal won't go well for UNT

Brett Vito

By Brett Vito
in Mean Green Football

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Brett Vito
Brett Vito

DRC: https://dentonrc.com/sports/prediction----trip-to-cal-will-not-go/article_bace12f5-feba-5ff7-a3df-ab74d96a1c0a.html

untjim1995
untjim1995

In other news, Brett, while you are way out on that giant limb of us losing to a P5 on the road with no defense--we also need oxygen to breathe...

MGNation92
MGNation92

Definite loss. We might be in a tailspin until post Houston. 1-4 start to the year is a very real possibility.

MrStrange18 Apprentice

MrStrange18

Posted
Posted

Yeah... not excited about this game.  Maybe Seth, Mason and Co will make us all eat crow, but I think this will be tough trip.

I know this is Old Denton think here... but I just want to come out of there injury free so we can come home and beat UTSA.

GMG

  • Upvote 3
MeanGreenTexan Grand Master

MeanGreenTexan

Posted
Posted

I just can't make a score prediction this week.   There is a lot to digest from last week's game to this week.  Way too many questions...

Was last weekend an aberration offensively?  Will the offense get back on track this week?  Even if the offense can get back on track, is CAL's defense good enough to contain it to under 25pts? Will CAL be caught sleepwalking between last weekend's win & next weekend's Ole Miss game in Oxford (our best hope)?  Can/will the defense make any adjustments, or are we just what we are?

I think this game will answer a lot of questions about this team, and we can move forward with more knowledgeable predictions starting next week.

  • Upvote 5
MrStrange18 Apprentice

MrStrange18

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I just can't make a score prediction this week.   There is a lot to digest from last week's game to this week.  Way too many questions...

Was last weekend an aberration offensively?  Will the offense get back on track this week?  Even if the offense can get back on track, is CAL's defense good enough to contain it to under 25pts? Will CAL be caught sleepwalking between last weekend's win & next weekend's Ole Miss game in Oxford (our best hope)?  Can/will the defense make any adjustments, or are we just what we are?

I think this game will answer a lot of questions about this team, and we can move forward with more knowledgeable predictions starting next week.

Yeah, I have noticed there has been a lot of chatter about this weeks game.  I guess we are still licking our wounds from last week.

I think you are right though.  If we win or even hang with Cal... it will show that last week was a fluke.  If we get absolutely embarrassed... Maybe old Graham had more of an impact on the offense than we thought...

  • Upvote 1
UNTLifer Grand Master

UNTLifer

Posted
Posted

I have no idea how this will go, but if Cal's offense, with their recent struggles, drops 40+ on us then we have bigger issues than I thought.  I had a coach from my younger years state that there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal.  We are wounded right now, so I hope that statement ages well with us.

  • Upvote 2
phillaak23 Newbie

phillaak23

Posted
Posted

In the past 9 games, Cal has given up more than 21 points only once.  That's after playing teams like UW (twice), WSU, Stanford, USC, TCU.

UNT can absolutely win this game.  But its not going to be by scoring, they will have to do it thru their defense. 

  • Lovely Take 1
UNTLifer Grand Master

UNTLifer

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, phillaak23 said:

In the past 9 games, Cal has given up more than 21 points only once.  That's after playing teams like UW (twice), WSU, Stanford, USC, TCU.

UNT can absolutely win this game.  But its not going to be by scoring, they will have to do it thru their defense. 

Wish I could say that provided me with some comfort, but our D will have to step up in a big way.

  • Upvote 2
oski Newbie

oski

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, phillaak23 said:

In the past 9 games, Cal has given up more than 21 points only once.  That's after playing teams like UW (twice), WSU, Stanford, USC, TCU.

UNT can absolutely win this game.  But its not going to be by scoring, they will have to do it thru their defense. 

and that game had 2 defensive tds by the other team and cal had 5 turnovers total.   

  • Upvote 2
oski Newbie

oski

Posted
Posted
Just now, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Do you think Cal can score in the 40s against us?

doubtful unless your defense is truly awful or there are defensive scores.   cal's receivers were running open most of the game against davis and they only scored 27.   

  • Upvote 1
NorthTexasSportsNetwork Grand Master

NorthTexasSportsNetwork

Posted
Posted
Just now, oski said:

doubtful unless your defense is truly awful or there are defensive scores.   cal's receivers were running open most of the game against davis and they only scored 27.   

Okay. Well our defense has to be ready to hit on the 1st quarter. If they aren’t it’s gonna be a long game

  • Upvote 1
phillaak23 Newbie

phillaak23

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Do you think Cal can score in the 40s against us?

Possible but unlikely.  Even if Cal were super efficient on offense, they like to chew clock so they never have that many offensive possessions in a game (very dissimilar to the Dykes team UNT just played)

If UNT has any chance of winning, they need to hold the Cal offense to under 24 (preferably even lower).

There is a formula for beating the Cal defense, but its not easy.  Cal basically dares teams to drive the entire length of the field.  They will concede some short passes, but they rarely (if ever) give up explosive plays (that's both a function of scheme and exceptional tackling). Cal's defense is basically betting that the opposing team will make a mistake (penalty, turnover, or sack) before getting to the endzone first down by first down. 

So if a team can run between the tackles and be patient and take the short throws and methodically move the ball downfield, then you can move the ball against Cal.  Its just extremely difficult to do.  Plus, once you get to the red zone, that's where Cal's defense really stiffens up. They have yet to give up a passing TD this year.  

  • Upvote 2
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untjim1995 Grand Master

untjim1995

Posted
Posted

44-30, Cal. We have given up 31 at home to FCS ACU and 49 to G5 SMU in an almost neutral site game. Cal is pretty good and they aren't gonna have any trouble scoring on this unit.

Our game to get better and feel better is the following weekend when we play UTSA here.

  • Upvote 1
FremontBear Newbie

FremontBear

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Do you think Cal can score in the 40s against us?

We'd have problems scoring 40 on Little Sisters of the Poor. All modesty aside, I think our D would give Mean Green a lot of trouble, and our O will convert just enough opportunities for a solid win. Something like 31-17

  • Upvote 2

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