How ESPN's FPI Predicts the Rest of the Season (Post LaTech Mauling)

[Big Z]

What happens if we beat La Tech and La Tech beats Southern Miss?

[MrStrange18]

14 minutes ago, Big Z said:

What happens if we beat La Tech and La Tech beats Southern Miss?

Unfortunately... I think we need to win a few more before we start thinking about tie-breaker scenarios 

[Big Z]

Just now, MrStrange18 said:

Unfortunately... I think we need to win a few more before we start thinking about tie-breaker scenarios 

I agree but if it does happen...

[MrStrange18]

I believe it goes to tie breakers in conference before it goes to OOC records.  If we win out and USM beats La Tech, we should be in good shape to win the west

[UNT 90 Grad]

1 hour ago, Big Z said:

What happens if we beat La Tech and La Tech beats Southern Miss?

Tiebreaker rules:

Conference USA

Two teams: Head-to-head

Three or more teams:

1. Highest regular season winning percentage based on overall Conference USA play.
2. If tied, head-to-head between tied teams.
3. If still tied, highest winning percentage within division.
4. If still tied, compare records against divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
5. If still tied, compare records with common cross-divisional opponents.
6. If still tied, compare records against cross-divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
7. If still tied, team with highest (College Football Playoff) ranking.
8. If still tied, the representative will be the team that has not participated in the championship game most recently.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2015/5/8/8561899/tiebreaker-standings-college-conference-rule#conferenceusa

[RiseUNT]

We did this last year then we lost to ODU.

[untbowler]

On 10/7/2019 at 12:44 PM, Cerebus said:

After our stirring victory over Bye Week University (BWU):

 

I think ESPN is underrating Rice, UAB, and Charlotte. This team has not looked good on the road.

MTSU will be another good bell-weather game to see how team will finish. 

[TheColonyEagle]

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

Post USM Game:

I have no idea how the MTSU game is gonna go....but the Charlotte game just seems like a problem

[MeanGreenTexan]

3 hours ago, Big Z said:

What happens if we beat La Tech and La Tech beats Southern Miss?

 

1 hour ago, UNT 90 Grad said:

Tiebreaker rules:

Conference USA

Two teams: Head-to-head

Three or more teams:

1. Highest regular season winning percentage based on overall Conference USA play.
2. If tied, head-to-head between tied teams.
3. If still tied, highest winning percentage within division.
4. If still tied, compare records against divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
5. If still tied, compare records with common cross-divisional opponents.
6. If still tied, compare records against cross-divisional opponents in descending order of finish.
7. If still tied, team with highest (College Football Playoff) ranking.
8. If still tied, the representative will be the team that has not participated in the championship game most recently.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2015/5/8/8561899/tiebreaker-standings-college-conference-rule#conferenceusa

Assuming your scenario includes all 3 teams tied atop the West Standings at 5-1, and win their cross-divisional games to wind up with just 1 loss...   Bullet #8 means it's USM.

[tmjerm]

3 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

 

Assuming your scenario includes all 3 teams tied atop the West Standings at 5-1, and win their cross-divisional games to wind up with just 1 loss...   Bullet #8 means it's USM.

How on earth do you get past 7?  Also, 8, though impossible, is silly. You should reward consistency instead of punish it. 

[Cerebus]

1 hour ago, tmjerm said:

How on earth do you get past 7?  Also, 8, though impossible, is silly. You should reward consistency instead of punish it. 

None of us will have a CFP ranking, so in effect it will be a tie.

[Cerebus]

On 10/16/2019 at 9:46 AM, Cerebus said:

Post USM Game:

Post MTSU:

[ADLER]

Southern Miss hosts UAB on 11/9 and WKU on 11/23, and Southern Miss plays at FAU on 11/30. Even their games at UTSA and Rice could be tough.

La Tech still has to play at Marshall on 11/15 and at UAB on 11/23.

They both have a chance of losing another game (or two) in conference play.

 

 

[UNTFan23]

On 10/16/2019 at 9:53 AM, MeanGreenTexan said:

I've officially been broken by FPI's artificial intelligence algorithms and am now a 100% believer.   Looks like we'll be going 7-5.  Good enough to go to the Hawaii Bowl!!

Prepare to welcome our AI overlords.

[greenminer]

4 hours ago, UNTFan23 said:

Prepare to welcome our AI overlords.

Speaking of advanced tech: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/tech/google-quantum-supremacy-scn/index.html

[MeanGreenTexan]

11 hours ago, UNTFan23 said:

Prepare to welcome our AI overlords.

 

7 hours ago, GENIYASA said:

Going to 7-4 from two straight nine wins season would be a very disappointing season.  

Going to 7-4 from two straight nine wins season would be a very disappointing season.  

I love that these two posts are in sequence.

[ADLER]

12 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I love that these two posts are in sequence.

I think the GENIYASA poster is just an automated Russki bot. 

Putin wants all of GoMeanGreen.com's top secrets

I'ts all probably part of that whole decades long Moose & Squirrel debacle.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2019 by ADLER

[exormax3]

Going 6-6 would be an incredible thing at this point

[Cerebus]

On 10/21/2019 at 12:23 PM, Cerebus said:

Post MTSU:

Post Charlotte Debacle:

[Big Z]

1 minute ago, Cerebus said:

Post Charlotte Debacle:

Can only hope...

[untbowler]

2 hours ago, exormax3 said:

Going 6-6 would be an incrediblely disappointing thing at this point

 

[MrStrange18]

1 hour ago, untbowler said:

 

The bar gets lowered every week for me... I will be happy with not a losing season at this point.

[MeanGreenTexan]

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

Post Charlotte Debacle:

What?

Why did our odds against LATech not change?
Why did our odds VS everyone else go UP?

This makes absolutely no sense, and since they were so wrong last week, I'm rebelling against our AI overlords again.

[Cerebus]

32 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

This makes absolutely no sense, and since they were so wrong last week, I'm rebelling against our AI overlords again.

That isn't how probability works.  They had the chances of us winning at 63.7%  In other words if we played them 1000 times we would win 637 of those games and lose 363. 

Probability >50% doesn't mean a guaranteed win, and <50% doesn't mean a guaranteed loss. 

[MeanGreenTexan]

11 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

That isn't how probability works.  They had the chances of us winning at 63.7%  In other words if we played them 1000 times we would win 637 of those games and lose 363. 

Probability >50% doesn't mean a guaranteed win, and <50% doesn't mean a guaranteed loss. 

I get that, but I would expect those %'s to change as they have been week-to-week.  

Losing to a poor Charlotte team should alter factors to DROP our probable win % against LATech who won Saturday, and UAB who was idle... right?
I guess since Rice/UTEP lost as well Saturday, I suppose our %'s could go up VS them.