How ESPN's FPI Predicts the Rest of the Season (Post LaTech Mauling)

THOR · September 16, 2019

only la tech and charlotte went down in win%

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · September 17, 2019

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

USM just won @Troy. They might be more real than we imagined.

LaTech Rolled Bowling Green 35-7. If they can beat USM in Ruston on 10/9, then when we play them there on 11/9 they will likely be 7-1 with their only loss being at UT.

PS: USM scheduled us for Homecoming.

Don't forget about LT. Every other year we are the HC team

MeanGreenTexan · September 17, 2019

3 hours ago, Cerebus said:

USM just won @Troy. They might be more real than we imagined.

LaTech Rolled Bowling Green 35-7. If they can beat USM in Ruston on 10/9, then when we play them there on 11/9 they will likely be 7-1 with their only loss being at UT.

PS: USM scheduled us for Homecoming.

SoMiss is “very good” every year & they still can’t beat us or LATech. What’s hard for me to understand is that our games w/LATech & Houston are nearly toss-ups, while we supposedly have less than a 1/3% chance to win vs SoMiss. That’s the broken part.

All About UNT · September 17, 2019

3 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

SoMiss is “very good” every year & they still can’t beat us or LATech. What’s hard for me to understand is that our games w/LATech & Houston are nearly toss-ups, while we supposedly have less than a 1/3% chance to win vs SoMiss. That’s the broken part.

Yeah that is quite perplexing to me too. I can't help but thinking that their history of running the conference of semi late sways those percentages

LongJim · September 17, 2019

13 hours ago, Cerebus said:

LaTech Rolled Bowling Green 35-7. If they can beat USM in Ruston on 10/9, then when we play them there on 11/9 they will likely be 7-1 with their only loss being at UT.

Watched LT against UT. UNT is going to have their hands full. They have some defensive guys who are fast and have some size.

They can also move the ball on the ground with 2 running backs who are very good. QB is a player as well, and the WRs can fly. Will be a big test.

LongJim · September 17, 2019

Rice should be a win for UNT. They are woefully undersized except for a couple of guys on DL. O line is their strength, and they can run the football some, but that's about it.

Their linebacker, Blaze Alldredge, is their best defensive player, and is always around the ball. He's fun to watch, but the UNT offense will have to account for him because he will try to be as disruptive as possible.

Big Z · September 17, 2019

15 minutes ago, LongJim said:

Watched LT against UT. UNT is going to have their hands full. They have some defensive guys who are fast and have some size.

They can also move the ball on the ground with 2 running backs who are very good. QB is a player as well, and the WRs can fly. Will be a big test.

I’m not buying into La Tech just yet, the last two wins haven’t really impressed me. Let’s see what they do Friday night.

MeanGreenTexan · September 17, 2019

5 hours ago, Big Z said:

I’m not buying into La Tech just yet, the last two wins haven’t really impressed me. Let’s see what they do Friday night.

It has really been a topsy turvvy first few weeks of football for teams NT is concerned with.
LA Tech looked non-competitive VS Texas, but that was to be somewhat expected. Then they get in a dogfight with Grambling St., which was NOT expected. Then they just dismantle BGU on the road... so I don't see how anyone could have a good read on them yet.
What has Southern Miss done, outside of winning a squeaker against Troy (who, by the way is not the same Troy without coach Brown) to make people think, "that's definitely the team to beat in C-USA West."? I just don't get it.

Big Z · September 17, 2019

3 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

It has really been a topsy turvvy first few weeks of football for teams NT is concerned with.
LA Tech looked non-competitive VS Texas, but that was to be somewhat expected. Then they get in a dogfight with Grambling St., which was NOT expected. Then they just dismantle BGU on the road... so I don't see how anyone could have a good read on them yet.
What has Southern Miss done, outside of winning a squeaker against Troy (who, by the way is not the same Troy without coach Brown) to make people think, "that's definitely the team to beat in C-USA West."? I just don't get it.

Agree

Some fans need to tap the brakes or take some anxiety medicine. Let’s just focus on UTSA first.

Edited September 17, 2019 by Big Z

Cerebus · September 17, 2019

14 hours ago, All About UNT said:

Yeah that is quite perplexing to me too. I can't help but thinking that their history of running the conference of semi late sways those percentages

FPI does use some of the previous season results to weight at the start of a new season, however it diminishes over the course of that season as new stats are fed in. FPI is based on Expected Points Added (think of it as a football WAR). USM haven't won the conference since 2011, FPI didn't start until 2013, so none of that performance has had any input into FPI.

This is ESPN's quick rundown of FPI.

How to understand college football analytics – the ultimate guide is a good start on understanding a lot of these analytics, include EPA.

No predictive system is perfect, but FPI is pretty good:

Quote

Over the last 10 seasons, the FPI favorite has won 75 percent of FBS-versus-FBS games, which is comparable to the Vegas closing line. Looking at the last four seasons, that percentage has risen to 77 percent, and in games that FPI and Vegas differed, the FPI favorite won 55 percent of the time. If you want to follow along with how FPI performs throughout the season, feel free to go to the prediction tracker website.

It’s worth noting that the results of analytics such as FPI are not black-and-white -- they give us likelihoods of outcomes, not certainties. Therefore, when FPI gives a team a 75 percent chance to win and that team loses, FPI is not necessarily “wrong.” A team with a 75 percent chance to win should lose one out of every four times, and if every team with a 75 percent chance to win does in fact win, the system is broken.

All About UNT · September 17, 2019

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

FPI does use some of the previous season results to weight at the start of a new season, however it diminishes over the course of that season as new stats are fed in. FPI is based on Expected Points Added (think of it as a football WAR). USM haven't won the conference since 2011, FPI didn't start until 2013, so none of that performance has had any input into FPI.

This is ESPN's quick rundown of FPI.

How to understand college football analytics – the ultimate guide is a good start on understanding a lot of these analytics, include EPA.

No predictive system is perfect, but FPI is pretty good:

Thanks for the heads-up

Cerebus · September 23, 2019

On 9/16/2019 at 4:44 PM, Cerebus said:

Updated after week 3:

After Week 4:

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · September 23, 2019

11 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

After Week 4:

9-3 after last week 7-5😂

Christopher Walker · September 23, 2019

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

After Week 4:

good day GIF by Ice Cube

MeanGreenTexan · September 23, 2019

Just now, Christopher Walker said:

I think this thing puts way too much emphasis on home field. I'm much more worried about losing to Houston at Apogee than I am losing to SoMiss away.

outoftown · September 23, 2019

3 hours ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

9-3 after last week 7-5😂

If one calculates the percentages out, its more like 7.5 expected wins now, while before was like 6.8 expected wins.

Time to improve that further on saturday by adding 45% more win probability to the 55% NT already has for its game against Houston.

eppy4life · September 24, 2019

I disagree about La Tech but time will tell. I'm focused on Houston.

UNT Texas Hooligan · September 24, 2019

13 hours ago, Cerebus said:

After Week 4:

I like seeing all of that green

RiseUNT · September 24, 2019

Why are we looking ahead? Why is the schedule being predicted after this week? Don't they know we can't look ahead?

Cerebus · September 24, 2019

21 hours ago, outoftown said:

If one calculates the percentages out, its more like 7.5 expected wins now, while before was like 6.8 expected wins.

This guy maths.

Cerebus · September 30, 2019

On 9/23/2019 at 8:25 AM, Cerebus said:

After Week 4:

Post UH:

Cerebus · October 1, 2019

So how would everyone feel if we ended up 7-5?

Felozano · October 2, 2019

38 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

So how would everyone feel if we ended up 7-5?

It would feel like a missed opportunity with the best QB in UNT history. The silver lining would be a Bowl Win.

This team could still run the table. The enthusiasm from the IPF combined with the Bye may be just what this team needs to come back strong!

GrandGreen · October 2, 2019

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

So how would everyone feel if we ended up 7-5?

Not great, but I would feel a lot better going 7-5 with wins over La Tech and USM. That would mean getting beat by a couple of underdog teams, but would put NT in better shape to win the division with a 6-2 record. Plus I just rather not lose to La Tech and USM.

Greendylan · October 2, 2019

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

So how would everyone feel if we ended up 7-5?

Before the season began, that would have seemed a game or two low to me. As of right now, that would be a relief. Unless we pull off an upset at Southern Miss, we will fall to 2-4. How often does a team start 2-4 and then finish with 6 straight wins? 7-5 is probably the ceiling of realistic outcomes.

Edited October 2, 2019 by Greendylan