What Seth Littrell may be teaching me about North Texas

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

Let me start by saying I hope this post doesn't age well.....meaning I hope someone is throwing this in my face as we hoist the conference championship trophy later this year.

However....

Watching that debacle on Saturday got me thinking about Seth Littrell's tenure here and got me wondering: "How many games has he won that he "shouldn't" have won? How many games has he won as an underdog? How many games has he won with something on the line?" And conversely...."how many games has he LOST that he shouldn't have?"

Obviously, the Arkansas game sticks out but in hindsight....that Arkansas team would've been beaten by half the teams in CUSA. Their QB play was so bad that the guy that we destroyed last year is now starting for them....think about that.

But what is Seth Littrell's best win?

Arkansas aside, I think his best win to date is 2017 @ Southern Miss. I was actually at that game and we looked bad in the first quarter, cut the lead before half and then pretty much dominated the 2nd half. (they could not guard Guyton). That win was the spring board to making us conference contenders. The gut check win later that season at La Tech was big as well. I would argue that's his big win with "something on the line"

However if you look at his losses since his 2nd year (I'll cut him some slack on year 1) Most were important games with something on the line. He's lost more of those than he's won. And all of them were either complete melt downs (ODU, UAB, La Tech last year) or he gets his doors blown off (SMU 2019, FAU x2, Troy, Utah St). Those losses shouldn't happen like they did.

In 2017, he lost 5 games (I won't count the Iowa game...I'll just count games we should supposedly be equal to talent wise). Those 4 losses were to SMU, FAU twice and Troy. Average score: 54-28

In 2018, he lost 4 games. The bowl game to Utah St and 3 2nd half meltdowns.

In 2019, Year 4 coach vs year 2 coach....we were never in the SMU game and got embarrassed

They're not just losses...they're complete disasters.

Now looking at his wins....and there have been plenty. He beats up on FCS teams and lower tier CUSA teams. (a lot of those wins were closer than they should've been) He beats teams he has a distinct talent advantage over. Which, admittedly, is more than I can say for the previous 2 coaches. And I guess it also says something that he DOES have more talent than some...which means he's recruiting better than.....UTEP and Rice...that's something I guess.

I've been following UNT football since the late 90s. I know there are many here that have been following for a lot longer but I really think the "modern age" of college football started with the BCS era and has exploded since then. High school recruits are treated like draft picks by the media, facility wars, more TV, more money. UNT has done a really good job shifting with this new world of college football as of late. One advantage UNT has had (and I've been saying this forever) is our built in, natural infrastructure. Our location, size, and alumni base. We have advantages that La Tech, USM, even Marshall, etc. don't have. The narrative here that was set by Darryl Dickey 20+ years ago is "we do more with less." Well I say given our natural, built in infrastructure, we've done less with more. That's due to the poor leadership we've had up until now. Hence the "sleeping giant" term we've thrown around for years. La Tech does more with less. They have support and some history sure....but would you trade locations with them? I'm going to guess there are A TON of programs in the country that would love to have what we have. The land with which we sit.

We are a large university right in the middle of the most fertile recruiting area in the nation. Our leadership is finally catching up and taking advantage of our location with the money and facilities.

My point is this regarding what Seth Littrell is teaching me about North Texas:

Nine wins a season at UNT should not be that hard to do.

Not now. Not with what we have to work with. Not with our level of competition. CUSA is no question the worst conference in FBS. If you're not a total disaster (like Todd Dodge or Dan McCarney) you can win nine games a year here given our location, facilities, and competition. That's what I'm starting to learn.

And before anyone reads into this.....I AM NOT ADVOCATING GETTING RID OF SETH LITTRELL. That would be ridiculous. But what I am wondering at this point, in year 4...are we going to take the next step? We're at the cusp but at some point....are we going to raise expectations even higher? We got a taste of it last year....are we going to take a step back in year 4? The year we're supposed to hit on all cylinders? The senior year of the greatest QB we've ever had? I saw someone on twitter refer to this as a rebuilding year? Are you kidding? This should be our prime. NEXT YEAR will be rebuilding....we've seen G5s splash on the scene recently only to fall off the map. We have an infrastructure in place that should help us avoid that.

There are two ways to look at North Texas football. 1) through the context of our history (which ain't good) or 2) through the context of what we have in place now. Those outside the program look through #1. (I can't believe that North Texas is winning football games!) I look through #2 - I can't believe we haven't won more football games. I see our current success not as some miracle but more of "finally we're living up to our potential." There are LOADS of other programs that don't have what we have.

This post may be a little premature but man we didn't look like we took 1 or 2 steps back on Saturday, we looked like we took 8 steps back. Hopefully this is a blip and Littrell could come back and beat Cal and/or UH (now I'm not sure about the UTSA game) and then we're off and running....but they have a long way to go after what I saw the other night. Frankly my confidence in this coaching staff is shaken right now. This staff doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from me because they've never shown they can recover from something like that or get the team ready to compete in games like that. They simply HAVE NOT ever done it. Watching that game was like watching the first FAU game from a couple of years ago. I asked "did we even practice this week?" That shouldn't be a question with this coaching staff in year 4. And if we get destroyed by Cal, look like crap against (or God forbid get beaten by) UTSA....we're not going to sell out the UH game (which is what the AD is banking on) What happens then? We're at best 2-3, possibly 1-4 and then we're going on the road to Southern Miss as an underdog. You want 13,000 in the seats for MTSU? Come back from Hattiesburg 2-4 or 1-5. That's absolutely a possibility given what we saw the other night. This is why that SMU game was sooooo important. Not just for the rivalry but more importantly for what it says about our season. That was the closest thing we had to a 50/50 game in the first half of this season, so much riding on it, and this staff absolutely blew it.....AGAIN.

But where are expectations for this program right now? Where should they be?

Is #hit6 still the bar here? Or is 9 wins an acceptable standard to hold Seth Littrell to? Given what he has to work with, and his salary, 9 wins a season should be the bar. (I still say he never seriously considered KState. I think his agent used it to get a raise.) He's now the highest paid coach in the conference and he's never won the conference. Forget #hit6, he needs to go out and #hit10.

Everything is in place...all the surrounding stuff. Now the coach needs to go win games, win big games, win championships, win bowl games. That's the expectation. If it's not...why are we spending all this money? Sorry....7-5 this season might as well be a losing season given what we have here. If you don't look at everything regarding this program through the prism of "we just moved up from FCS and we've been bad for so long" then the expectation should be higher than 7-5.

But.... I don't see 9-10 wins coming out of the team we watched the other night. And that should be unacceptable. If this team, led by Mason Fine, goes 7-5 or 6-6...we're in a world of hurt the next couple of years.

That SMU performance was embarrassing for this program and this coaching staff. That was a lost team out there the other night. They need to fix it and fix it in a hurry. If this coaching staff is as good as we think it is (and as good as it's being paid to be)....my expectation is they'll turn it around.

I sure hope they do.

There's a feeling from many that "Oh, Littrell will be on to bigger/better things probably next year or soon after." When I hear that, I hear basically: "Littrell is too good for UNT." That's what they're saying.

Welp....we shall see....

untbowler · September 9, 2019

you should include the 2016 UTEP game as well, big chance to get to 6-6 and lays a huge egg, yes UTEP had a great RB, but that was it and made them look like world beaters.

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

Just now, untbowler said:

you should include the 2016 UTEP game as well, big chance to get to 6-6 and lays a huge egg, yes UTEP had a great RB, but that was it and made them look like world beaters.

yep....I forgot about that one.

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

9 minutes ago, UNT Texas Hooligan said:

How many recruits do we lose after that shit show this weekend?

SMU had a TON of recruits there...

golfingomez · September 9, 2019

how many did we win that we should have lost?

2016 probably about 4 (1-11 team without a returning QB and not much besides Jeff WIlson)

2017 probably about 4 (fluky 5-8 team beats SoMiss, Army, La Tech)

2018 probably 2 (beat SMU, Arky, FAU)

2019 we'll see, currently, we have won a game we were supposed to and lost a game we were supposed to...

Wag Tag · September 9, 2019

A Cal win or Houston win and we move on from SMU. He needs to win C-USA Champ this year. That is the measuring stick to me.

Udomann · September 9, 2019

2 minutes ago, golfingomez said:

2019 we'll see, currently, we have won a game we were supposed to and lost a game we were supposed to...

Let's not downplay that. We won a game that we should have destroyed. We lost a game we should have competed in.

Our defense collapsed in ACU. Our team collapsed in SMU. Less "supposed to" and more "well that happened..."

golfingomez · September 9, 2019

2 minutes ago, Udomann said:

Let's not downplay that. We won a game that we should have destroyed. We lost a game we should have competed in.

Our defense collapsed in ACU. Our team collapsed in SMU. Less "supposed to" and more "well that happened..."

ok...

meangreenlax · September 9, 2019

I’ve only been affiliated with North Texas since 2014, so I haven’t gone through decades of trauma that others have experienced. But I was at the Portland State disaster, so I think I can appreciate what it’s been like to be a long term UNT fan.

Things are generally trending upwards. The university is investing, and we pulled 26k to Apogee to watch a FCS matchup. All good signs. However I’m just worried about the fact that we haven’t capitalized on the opportunities we’ve had over the past 3 years and—while it’s very early in the season—things aren’t looking great right now.

But as is stated here and other places, it is incredibly frustrating to have to watch this team win 80 percent of the games it’s supposed to, 0 percent of the tough ones, and get blown out in bowl games. It’s become a pattern, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to acknowledge it.

The season won’t be over if we drop to 1-2 or whatever heading into C-USA play, but we will be looking back on what could have been.

Edited September 9, 2019 by meangreenlax

Big Z · September 9, 2019

50 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

Let me start by saying I hope this post doesn't age well.....meaning I hope someone is throwing this in my face as we hoist the conference championship trophy later this year.

However....

Watching that debacle on Saturday got me thinking about Seth Littrell's tenure here and got me wondering: "How many games has he won that he "shouldn't" have won? How many games has he won as an underdog? How many games has he won with something on the line?" And conversely...."how many games has he LOST that he shouldn't have?"

Obviously, the Arkansas game sticks out but in hindsight....that Arkansas team would've been beaten by half the teams in CUSA. Their QB play was so bad that the guy that we destroyed last year is now starting for them....think about that.

But what is Seth Littrell's best win?

Arkansas aside, I think his best win to date is 2017 @ Southern Miss. I was actually at that game and we looked bad in the first quarter, cut the lead before half and then pretty much dominated the 2nd half. (they could not guard Guyton). That win was the spring board to making us conference contenders. The gut check win later that season at La Tech was big as well. I would argue that's his big win with "something on the line"

However if you look at his losses since his 2nd year (I'll cut him some slack on year 1) Most were important games with something on the line. He's lost more of those than he's won. And all of them were either complete melt downs (ODU, UAB, La Tech last year) or he gets his doors blown off (SMU 2019, FAU x2, Troy, Utah St). Those losses shouldn't happen like they did.

In 2017, he lost 5 games (I won't count the Iowa game...I'll just count games we should supposedly be equal to talent wise). Those 4 losses were to SMU, FAU twice and Troy. Average score: 54-28

In 2018, he lost 4 games. The bowl game to Utah St and 3 2nd half meltdowns.

In 2019, Year 4 coach vs year 2 coach....we were never in the SMU game and got embarrassed

They're not just losses...they're complete disasters.

Now looking at his wins....and there have been plenty. He beats up on FCS teams and lower tier CUSA teams. (a lot of those wins were closer than they should've been) He beats teams he has a distinct talent advantage over. Which, admittedly, is more than I can say for the previous 2 coaches. And I guess it also says something that he DOES have more talent than some...which means he's recruiting better than.....UTEP and Rice...that's something I guess.

I've been following UNT football since the late 90s. I know there are many here that have been following for a lot longer but I really think the "modern age" of college football started with the BCS era and has exploded since then. High school recruits are treated like draft picks by the media, facility wars, more TV, more money. UNT has done a really good job shifting with this new world of college football as of late. One advantage UNT has had (and I've been saying this forever) is our built in, natural infrastructure. Our location, size, and alumni base. We have advantages that La Tech, USM, even Marshall, etc. don't have. The narrative here that was set by Darryl Dickey 20+ years ago is "we do more with less." Well I say given our natural, built in infrastructure, we've done less with more. That's due to the poor leadership we've had up until now. Hence the "sleeping giant" term we've thrown around for years. La Tech does more with less. They have support and some history sure....but would you trade locations with them? I'm going to guess there are A TON of programs in the country that would love to have what we have. The land with which we sit.

We are a large university right in the middle of the most fertile recruiting area in the nation. Our leadership is finally catching up and taking advantage of our location with the money and facilities.

My point is this regarding what Seth Littrell is teaching me about North Texas:

Nine wins a season at UNT should not be that hard to do.

Not now. Not with what we have to work with. Not with our level of competition. CUSA is no question the worst conference in FBS. If you're not a total disaster (like Todd Dodge or Dan McCarney) you can win nine games a year here given our location, facilities, and competition. That's what I'm starting to learn.

And before anyone reads into this.....I AM NOT ADVOCATING GETTING RID OF SETH LITTRELL. That would be ridiculous. But what I am wondering at this point, in year 4...are we going to take the next step? We're at the cusp but at some point....are we going to raise expectations even higher? We got a taste of it last year....are we going to take a step back in year 4? The year we're supposed to hit on all cylinders? The senior year of the greatest QB we've ever had? I saw someone on twitter refer to this as a rebuilding year? Are you kidding? This should be our prime. NEXT YEAR will be rebuilding....we've seen G5s splash on the scene recently only to fall off the map. We have an infrastructure in place that should help us avoid that.

There are two ways to look at North Texas football. 1) through the context of our history (which ain't good) or 2) through the context of what we have in place now. Those outside the program look through #1. (I can't believe that North Texas is winning football games!) I look through #2 - I can't believe we haven't won more football games. I see our current success not as some miracle but more of "finally we're living up to our potential." There are LOADS of other programs that don't have what we have.

This post may be a little premature but man we didn't look like we took 1 or 2 steps back on Saturday, we looked like we took 8 steps back. Hopefully this is a blip and Littrell could come back and beat Cal and/or UH (now I'm not sure about the UTSA game) and then we're off and running....but they have a long way to go after what I saw the other night. Frankly my confidence in this coaching staff is shaken right now. This staff doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from me because they've never shown they can recover from something like that or get the team ready to compete in games like that. They simply HAVE NOT ever done it. Watching that game was like watching the first FAU game from a couple of years ago. I asked "did we even practice this week?" That shouldn't be a question with this coaching staff in year 4. And if we get destroyed by Cal, look like crap against (or God forbid get beaten by) UTSA....we're not going to sell out the UH game (which is what the AD is banking on) What happens then? We're at best 2-3, possibly 1-4 and then we're going on the road to Southern Miss as an underdog. You want 13,000 in the seats for MTSU? Come back from Hattiesburg 2-4 or 1-5. That's absolutely a possibility given what we saw the other night. This is why that SMU game was sooooo important. Not just for the rivalry but more importantly for what it says about our season. That was the closest thing we had to a 50/50 game in the first half of this season, so much riding on it, and this staff absolutely blew it.....AGAIN.

But where are expectations for this program right now? Where should they be?

Is #hit6 still the bar here? Or is 9 wins an acceptable standard to hold Seth Littrell to? Given what he has to work with, and his salary, 9 wins a season should be the bar. (I still say he never seriously considered KState. I think his agent used it to get a raise.) He's now the highest paid coach in the conference and he's never won the conference. Forget #hit6, he needs to go out and #hit10.

Everything is in place...all the surrounding stuff. Now the coach needs to go win games, win big games, win championships, win bowl games. That's the expectation. If it's not...why are we spending all this money? Sorry....7-5 this season might as well be a losing season given what we have here. If you don't look at everything regarding this program through the prism of "we just moved up from FCS and we've been bad for so long" then the expectation should be higher than 7-5.

But.... I don't see 9-10 wins coming out of the team we watched the other night. And that should be unacceptable. If this team, led by Mason Fine, goes 7-5 or 6-6...we're in a world of hurt the next couple of years.

That SMU performance was embarrassing for this program and this coaching staff. That was a lost team out there the other night. They need to fix it and fix it in a hurry. If this coaching staff is as good as we think it is (and as good as it's being paid to be)....my expectation is they'll turn it around.

I sure hope they do.

There's a feeling from many that "Oh, Littrell will be on to bigger/better things probably next year or soon after." When I hear that, I hear basically: "Littrell is too good for UNT." That's what they're saying.

Welp....we shall see....

Do you go outside often?

Edited September 9, 2019 by Big Z

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

3 minutes ago, meangreenlax said:

But as is stated here and other places, it is incredibly frustrating to have to watch this team win 80 percent of the games it’s supposed to, 0 percent of the tough ones, and get blown out in bowl games. It’s become a pattern, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to acknowledge it.

This is what I'm saying....in much less words. Thank you.

Udomann · September 9, 2019

4 minutes ago, Big Z said:

Do you go outside often?

We are all on a football forum on the interwebs arguing about a bunch of kids we barely know who throw a football around.

Let's not judge bro. Just watch the show and engage if you feel so inclined.

Big Z · September 9, 2019

Just now, Udomann said:

We are all on a football forum on the interwebs arguing about a bunch of kids we barely know who throw a football around.

Let's not judge bro. Just watch the show and engage if you feel so inclined.

Ya bro let’s just whine and think the world has just ended....grow a pair and get over it Sally.

Its only been 2 games...

golfingomez · September 9, 2019

57 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

My point is this regarding what Seth Littrell is teaching me about North Texas:

Nine wins a season at UNT should not be that hard to do.

Not now. Not with what we have to work with. Not with our level of competition. CUSA is no question the worst conference in FBS. If you're not a total disaster (like Todd Dodge or Dan McCarney) you can win nine games a year here given our location, facilities, and competition. That's what I'm starting to learn.

tell that to every coach we've ever had (excluding Hayden Fry)

Udomann · September 9, 2019

Just now, Big Z said:

Ya bro let’s just whine and think the world has just ended....grow a pair and get over it Sally.

Its only been 2 games...

If I come on here attacking you, go for that. Respectful discourse has its place!

meangreenlax · September 9, 2019

Just now, golfingomez said:

tell that to every coach we've ever had (excluding Hayden Fry)

Is historical ineptitude and institutional malfeasance a serious defense for why we shouldn’t have basic expectations?

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

10 minutes ago, Big Z said:

Do you go outside often?

what does that even mean?

Big Z · September 9, 2019

Just now, TheColonyEagle said:

what does that even mean?

It was the same long type of post I see every season complaining about the same old UNT stuff from the past.

golfingomez · September 9, 2019

1 minute ago, meangreenlax said:

Is historical ineptitude and institutional malfeasance a serious defense for why we shouldn’t have basic expectations?

no, but show me all the schools in the country where 9 wins is 'not that hard to do' or a 'basic' expectation.

Udomann · September 9, 2019

1 minute ago, Big Z said:

It was the same long type of post I see every season complaining about the same old UNT stuff from the past.

How is he wrong though? Expectations have never been higher. He had a taste of greatness and wants more. This hasn't been a fairytale start we fans hoped for. More like a DCEU edgy reboot.

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

4 minutes ago, Big Z said:

It was the same long type of post I see every season complaining about the same old UNT stuff from the past.

Please accept my apology.

Big Z · September 9, 2019

1 minute ago, Udomann said:

How is he wrong though? Expectations have never been higher. He had a taste of greatness and wants more. This hasn't been a fairytale start we fans hoped for. More like a DCEU edgy reboot.

We all want more but let’s not panic after just two games is all I am saying. I’m glad we have a tough out of conference schedule to get ready for conference play.

Udomann · September 9, 2019

3 minutes ago, Big Z said:

We all want more but let’s not panic after just two games is all I am saying. I’m glad we have a tough out of conference schedule to get ready for conference play.

That's a good silver lining. We got 2-3 into full conference after Houston and kick ass to a conf championship and I will personally apologize to the board.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Udomann

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

20 minutes ago, Udomann said:

We are all on a football forum on the interwebs arguing about a bunch of kids we barely know who throw a football around.

Technically...I'm not arguing about the kids, I'm arguing about the guy making $1.8 mil a year

TheColonyEagle · September 9, 2019

1 minute ago, Udomann said:

That's a good silver lining. We got 2-3 into full conference after Houston and kick ass to a conf championship and I will personally apologize to the board.

I second this