NT Daily - "Column: As good as gone"

[CarmanSandiego]

10 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

Of that first list (the almost sure thing openings) I see only Indiana, Illinois and Rutgers as reasonable options.  9 wins is impressive to US given our past, but I don’t see USC or Auburn being impressed with late season collapses or bowl blowouts.  

And of those three I don’t see a single one that says “chance to keep advancing afterward.”  None of the three will surpass Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio St, (or maybe even Nebraska) anytime soon.

It is very unlikely a blueblood like USC or Auburn would ever hire a coach straight from a G5. But the way most coaches get to those gigs is by jumping to a lower/middle tier P5 program and have a period of consistent winning. Those are most of the teams on that list. You don't have to carry a middle tier P5 to conference championships/undefeated seasons and pass up those other bluebloods to get a blueblood gig. Consistent winning in the face of a recruiting disadvantage will get you there.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

28 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

Of that first list (the almost sure thing openings) I see only Indiana, Illinois and Rutgers as reasonable options.  9 wins is impressive to US given our past, but I don’t see USC or Auburn being impressed with late season collapses or bowl blowouts.  

And of those three I don’t see a single one that says “chance to keep advancing afterward.”  None of the three will surpass Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio St, (or maybe even Nebraska) anytime soon.

Gus Malzahn is as good as gone. 

Helton is playing with fire. 

The other 3 are going on year 3 or 4 with no sight of improvement on the horizon with horrendous overall records. 

4 of those 5 are all but guaranteed to be open. Helton may be able to salvage for an additional year. 

[peanuts104]

2 hours ago, Cr1028 said:

Each bowl game thereafter, with him being a hot name in the coaching carousel, we got DESTROYED!

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to criticize the Utah State game with Mason being taken out. You could make the argument that Mason getting injured game shouldn't have mattered that much for a "good team" but "good teams" have trouble adjusting across the board from High School to the NFL when their starting QB goes down. 

And I think you're probably reading too much into the coaching carousel buzz.  And as others have pointed out we have had serious deficiencies in the trenches, especially on the offensive side. It was both sides of the  ball in 2016 and 2017, though the dline was much improved last year for the most part.  Oline still sorting it out.  I think that has more to do with the blowouts than anything else.  That being said, the blame is still on Seth and I don't disagree with most of the criticism of his tenure here, but it is still light years from where we've been since Dickey had is run.  

 

2 hours ago, SilverEagle said:

I'm sorry, but where did you pull the word "horrible" out of my post? Are you one of those people that is so sensitive that anyone making even a suggestion on how you might improve in anything suddenly becomes a "hater"? 

I inferred it from your post basically saying he hasn't accomplished anything here, which is false.  And throughout this post you  basically say the same thing.    I've even conceded in every post in this thread that he needs to finish seasons strong and that it is disappointing the various issues and poor results we've had in most of the big time games. I'm not saying we need to anoint him king and pay him $20 million a year, but there seems to be a fundamental lack of respect for where we are now versus the ****hole(note: proverbial coaching ****hole, not the university itself, which I of course love) we were wallowing in for a decade before he came here.

Edited February 21, 2019 by peanuts104

[forevereagle]

1 hour ago, CarmanSandiego said:

It is very unlikely a blueblood like USC or Auburn would ever hire a coach straight from a G5. But the way most coaches get to those gigs is by jumping to a lower/middle tier P5 program and have a period of consistent winning. Those are most of the teams on that list. You don't have to carry a middle tier P5 to conference championships/undefeated seasons and pass up those other bluebloods to get a blueblood gig. Consistent winning in the face of a recruiting disadvantage will get you there.

Those programs do exactly what you are describing. Urban Meyer went to Florida from a G5 (Utah was G5 at the time), UT hired Herman direct from Houston. A&M has done the same. Nebraska hired Scott Frost direct from UCF and Michigan hired Brady Hoke from SDSU. Jim Tressel went to OSU from Youngstown State. It doesn't seem to be all that unlikely to me.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

59 minutes ago, peanuts104 said:

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to criticize the Utah State game with Mason being taken out. You could make the argument that Mason getting injured game shouldn't have mattered that much for a "good team" but "good teams" have trouble adjusting across the board from High School to the NFL when their starting QB goes down. 

And I think you're probably reading too much into the coaching carousel buzz.  And as others have pointed out we have had serious deficiencies in the trenches, especially on the offensive side. It was both sides of the  ball in 2016 and 2017, though the dline was much improved last year for the most part.  Oline still sorting it out.  I think that has more to do with the blowouts than anything else.  That being said, the blame is still on Seth and I don't disagree with most of the criticism of his tenure here, but it is still light years from where we've been since Dickey had is run.  

 

I inferred it from your post basically saying he hasn't accomplished anything here, which is false.  And throughout this post you  basically say the same thing.    I've even conceded in every post in this thread that he needs to finish seasons strong and that it is disappointing the various issues and poor results we've had in most of the big time games. I'm not saying we need to anoint him king and pay him $20 million a year, but there seems to be a fundamental lack of respect for where we are now versus the ****hole(note: proverbial coaching ****hole, not the university itself, which I of course love) we were wallowing in for a decade before he came here.

Bad taste in the mouth ending the season badly 3 years in a row sort of resonates. 

[Cr1028]

1 hour ago, peanuts104 said:

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to criticize the Utah State game with Mason being taken out. 

You sound like a 2009 Texas Longhorn fan.

[peanuts104]

14 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

You sound like a 2009 Texas Longhorn fan.

That's actually a poor example because they almost won that game even without McCoy.

[Cr1028]

1 minute ago, peanuts104 said:

That's actually a poor example because they almost won that game even without McCoy.

Haha! Ok buddy.

[Monkeypox]

6 minutes ago, forevereagle said:

Those programs do exactly what you are describing. Urban Meyer went to Florida from a G5 (Utah was G5 at the time), UT hired Herman direct from Houston. A&M has done the same. Nebraska hired Scott Frost direct from UCF and Michigan hired Brady Hoke from SDSU. Jim Tressel went to OSU from Youngstown State. It doesn't seem to be all that unlikely to me.

Urban Meyer went 22-2 in 2 season at Utah and won both bowl games over that time period (after going 17-6 in 2 years at BGU).

Tom Herman went 22-4 in Houston (1-1 in Bowl Games). Of course, this came right after being the Broyles Award winner at Ohio State, helping them win their first championship in over a decade. Seth hasn't had nearly the star over him that Herman had, even before Houston.

Frost went 13-0 and beat Auburn in a Bowl game. SL does that, then I don't think anyone doubts he can go to an upper lvl P5. They're just pointing out that he HASN'T done that. Frost, like Herman, had been a coordinator at a major P5 program in Oregon that played for a Nat't Championship. He was also a Broyles Award finalist at Oregon.

Hoke had been a HC for 8 years, and had a middling record when Michigan hired him, coming off a 9-win season and bowl victory. Despite his amazing first season, I don't think anyone is looking to the Michigan hire of Hoke and saying "that's what we need to emulate." After 4 mosly mediocre seasons at Michigan, he was dumped.

Tressel was a coach at Youngstown State for 15 seasons. In that time, he won 4 Championships in 6 Championship games, and went 135-57-2. If Littrell stays here that long and wins that many games, then I definitely think he will also get a shot at a major P5. He hasn't done that.

I'm not saying that SL WON'T be hired away, or that he WON'T even be hired away by a Big P5 if he doesn't win a bowl game. I'm just skeptical that your ADs at the Auburns or USCs of the world will have the balls to hire a HC who hasn't won their conference or a bowl game in 5 years. Heck, winning 9 games but losing big ones gets Head Coaches FIRED at those programs.

So, I think you're looking at a minimum of 8 wins, and you HAVE to win CUSA Championship/Bowl game to get hired away by your top-tier P5 program. But I think a former great on a down-turn or a 2nd tier P5 is a lock at least, as long as he doesn't completely crap the bed.

I think SL has been a great coach for us, and I am pleased with his accomplishments. But at some point, even WE would have to start questioning whether or not he CAN take the next step (not unlike what happened with Dickey). I don't believe we're at that point yet, and the way the coaching carousel goes in  college football, we likely won't ever get there. It is what it is.

[forevereagle]

58 minutes ago, Monkeypox said:

 I think SL has been a great coach for us, and I am pleased with his accomplishments. But at some point, even WE would have to start questioning whether or not he CAN take the next step (not unlike what happened with Dickey). I don't believe we're at that point yet, and the way the coaching carousel goes in  college football, we likely won't ever get there. It is what it is.

Yes, those coaches all had good records, but SL has a pretty impressive record, even without the bowl wins and conference championships. Those examples were just the quick ones I came up with, there are likely other examples that I just don't have recall power on. Those same programs have hired coordinators direct with no HC experience (OU notably and recently). I think that many here are overestimating an AD at any program to go and get a guy they think can win for them.

[emmitt01]

5 hours ago, forevereagle said:

Those programs do exactly what you are describing. Urban Meyer went to Florida from a G5 (Utah was G5 at the time), UT hired Herman direct from Houston. A&M has done the same. Nebraska hired Scott Frost direct from UCF and Michigan hired Brady Hoke from SDSU. Jim Tressel went to OSU from Youngstown State. It doesn't seem to be all that unlikely to me.

I love North Texas.  I mean, really love North Texas.  

Still, I know that our success with SL over the last three years is not on the same planet as what those coaches did at those G5 programs.  

[emmitt01]

4 hours ago, peanuts104 said:

That's actually a poor example because they almost won that game even without McCoy.

Exactly.  Except for that whole Bama running when and where they wanted thing.

[peanuts104]

13 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

Exactly.  Except for that whole Bama running when and where they wanted thing.

Doesn't change the fact that they were within a TD of Bama until the end of the 4th quarter.

[forevereagle]

13 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

I love North Texas.  I mean, really love North Texas.  

Still, I know that our success with SL over the last three years is not on the same planet as what those coaches did at those G5 programs.  

I was just pointing out that the highest level P5 programs DO actually hire directly from G5s for head coaches. I don't know that Seth has achieved enough here to make that leap, but it can happen.

[SilverEagle]

13 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

Exactly.  Except for that whole Bama running when and where they wanted thing.

FFR would approve of this post

36 minutes ago, peanuts104 said:

Doesn't change the fact that they were within a TD of Bama until the end of the 4th quarter.

I've already posted a Bill Belichick quote. So, I'll post what the late great Don Meridith used to say "IF if's and buts were candys and nuts, what a merry Christmas we'd have"

Edited February 22, 2019 by SilverEagle

[Cr1028]

37 minutes ago, peanuts104 said:

Doesn't change the fact that they were within a TD of Bama until the end of the 4th quarter.

Did you even watch that game? Other than a boneheaded fake punt that got them behind the 8-ball, they basically controlled the entire game. They only passed the ball like 12 times while running it over 50. That is imposing your will on someone. That is how Dickey used to win the Sun Belt.

[peanuts104]

37 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

Did you even watch that game?

I mean it's been a few years.

[greenminer]

3 hours ago, peanuts104 said:

Doesn't change the fact that they were within a TD of Bama until the end of the 4th quarter.

The point being Bama was dictating the game and the outcome.