Why not build a financial fortress around Littrell now?

Christopher Walker · October 17, 2018

Disclaimer: I fully believe we’ll have a new head coach on January 1, 2020.

Here’s all the non-monetary reasons I think Seth will still be here in 2019:

• Top ‘19 CUSA recruiting class. It’s important for a budding first-time coach to exhibit not only his first on-field consistency, but likewise in recruiting. ‘Sack got only one of those in Frank Wilson and yeah, how’s that going?

• Seeing the Mason Fine story to its conclusion. He has a lot invested there.

• The Lovelace factor. Notice that Dillon Lovelace is consistently among the only non-AD personnel who is in the locker room before, during, and after every game? The Lovelace+Litrell nearly lifelong family friendship is becoming more and more well-documented, and I believe this plays a huge factor for Seth.

• In addition to the above, much has been written of what Seth has available here for his family. He’s within shouting distance from his extended family and friends. His parents are able to attend every home game. His wife and kids have repeatedly expressed their love for the Denton community and Liberty Christian schools.

• The institutional support. It’s one thing for a school to bite the bullet on a competitive coaching salary pool. It’s entirely something else for the leadership of the institution to be in lockstep, unified for a shared trajectory for Athletics; from the BOR, Chancellor Roe, President Smatresk, and Wren Baker on down.

There are other little tidbits here and there, but I think these are the big ones.

Wag Tag · October 17, 2018

Long sure left Ark in good shape. I don't see K as being a threat, but would like to know who the other schools might be?

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

I honestly think everyone worrying about money are not paying attention.

He's already one of the highest paid G5 coaches out there. He's not going to be poached by another G5 school. Period. Brint & Co have already said they will see to that. Thank you Brint & Co!

So, from now on, it's going to be about the different opportunities presented to him & which ones he wants to try and take on.
We already know he wanted the Tennessee opportunity. Who wouldn't? That school has a tremendous legacy & has boosters for miles ready to make them great again. All they needed? ...was Seth Littrell to make it happen.
If he decides Kansas, or Indiana, or some other bottom-dwelling P5 school is a challenge he wants to take on? He's going to do it, whether our boosters come through with $2-3mil or not. Because the P5 schools offer something NT cannot (ask UCF), and that's a chance at a National Championship.

emmitt01 · October 17, 2018

1 minute ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I honestly think everyone worrying about money are not paying attention.

He's already one of the highest paid G5 coaches out there. He's not going to be poached by another G5 school. Period. Brint & Co have already said they will see to that. Thank you Brint & Co!

So, from now on, it's going to be about the different opportunities presented to him & which ones he wants to try and take on.
We already know he wanted the Tennessee opportunity. Who wouldn't? That school has a tremendous legacy & has boosters for miles ready to make them great again. All they needed? ...was Seth Littrell to make it happen.
If he decides Kansas, or Indiana, or some other bottom-dwelling P5 school is a challenge he wants to take on? He's going to do it, whether our boosters come through with $2-3mil or not. Because the P5 schools offer something NT cannot (ask UCF), and that's a chance at a National Championship.

But do the really? Can you say, with any honesty, that Indiana or Kansas have a legitimate shot at a national title? Sure, they are in the right conference and have the money...but so do Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, and the other teams that perennially rule those conferences. Teams like Kansas, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Illinois are P5 in name only.

NorthTexasWeLove · October 17, 2018

8 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

But do the really? Can you say, with any honesty, that Indiana or Kansas have a legitimate shot at a national title? Sure, they are in the right conference and have the money...but so do Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, and the other teams that perennially rule those conferences. Teams like Kansas, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Illinois are P5 in name only.

Agreed. They have a shot in theory and affiliation only. But realistically, a school like UCF has more of a shot to make it into the playoff than the likes of Vandy, KU, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Illinois, Northwestern, BC, Ga Tech, etc etc etc. They have been monopolized out of the conversation by their own 'peers'. Just more of a reason to create some baseline way of establishing even an inkling of parity. It's what makes the NFL so attractive to their customers. Because THIS year is OUR year is always a realistic reality.

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

7 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

But do the really? Can you say, with any honesty, that Indiana or Kansas have a legitimate shot at a national title? Sure, they are in the right conference and have the money...but so do Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, and the other teams that perennially rule those conferences. Teams like Kansas, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Illinois are P5 in name only.

Right. That is something for Littrell to decide on.
I mean, when he was surveying the G5 landscape as a coordinator, I'm not so sure he was convinced a 1-11 North Texas team would be the ideal school for him... but it was a challenge he accepted because he wanted to.

Rewind 8 years ago & Clemson was a big bag of nothing. A perennial also-ran, 6-win team, that lost to UCF in the Meineke Car Care Bowl (so, finishing 6-7 that year). Dabo took over & built them up into contenders & eventually, national champions.

I KNOW Littrell thinks he could do the same thing. He just has to find the right opportunity.

In the meantime, he's got a great thing going here as the HC of a successful G5 school. No rush to leave. But again, I don't think he's going to wait around for Riley to get fired from OU before he starts putting himself out there.

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

3 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Agreed. They have a shot in theory and affiliation only. But realistically, a school like UCF has more of a shot to make it into the playoff than the likes of Vandy, KU, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Illinois, Northwestern, BC, Ga Tech, etc etc etc. They have been monopolized out of the conversation by their own 'peers'. Just more of a reason to create some baseline way of establishing even an inkling of parity. It's what makes the NFL so attractive to their customers. Because THIS year is OUR year is always a realistic reality.

So, say hypothetically, if Seth Littrell were to take over at Wake Forest, and he takes 2-3 years to get that team ramped up, and goes undefeated in ACC play... he's not going to get a shot at a National Championship because of Wake's history? A 1-loss Clemson (or whatever other ACC school) would leapfrog the undefeated ACC team based on history?

Cerebus · October 17, 2018

UCF is about to go undefeated for two years straight and they have no chance at the CFP. Any P5 team that does that will get in.

NorthTexasWeLove · October 17, 2018

4 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

So, say hypothetically, if Seth Littrell were to take over at Wake Forest, and he takes 2-3 years to get that team ramped up, and goes undefeated in ACC play... he's not going to get a shot at a National Championship because of Wake's history? A 1-loss Clemson (or whatever other ACC school) would leapfrog the undefeated ACC team based on history?

In your scenario, they will go to the playoff. Wake Forests best year ever was a 3 loss Orange Bowl season in 2006. In which they lost.

Wake Forest isn't going undefeated, ever. In that year the bellcows of the ACC had a combined 20 losses. It was a very, very down year for that conference. And somehow WF managed to still lose 2 conference games.

And every team similar to Wake Forest will have a probable mirrored football history. It's just not happening. Seth there or not.

untjim1995 · October 17, 2018

1 hour ago, Christopher Walker said:

Disclaimer: I fully believe we’ll have a new head coach on January 1, 2020.

Here’s all the non-monetary reasons I think Seth will still be here in 2019:

• Top ‘19 CUSA recruiting class. It’s important for a budding first-time coach to exhibit not only his first on-field consistency, but likewise in recruiting. ‘Sack got only one of those in Frank Wilson and yeah, how’s that going?

• Seeing the Mason Fine story to its conclusion. He has a lot invested there.

• The Lovelace factor. Notice that Dillon Lovelace is consistently among the only non-AD personnel who is in the locker room before, during, and after every game? The Lovelace+Litrell nearly lifelong family friendship is becoming more and more well-documented, and I believe this plays a huge factor for Seth.

• In addition to the above, much has been written of what Seth has available here for his family. He’s within shouting distance from his extended family and friends. His parents are able to attend every home game. His wife and kids have repeatedly expressed their love for the Denton community and Liberty Christian schools.

• The institutional support. It’s one thing for a school to bite the bullet on a competitive coaching salary pool. It’s entirely something else for the leadership of the institution to be in lockstep, unified for a shared trajectory for Athletics; from the BOR, Chancellor Roe, President Smatresk, and Wren Baker on down.

There are other little tidbits here and there, but I think these are the big ones.

I know we don’t agree on a lot, but you’re on the right path with this post. I think SL will take a senior Mason Fine and then ride off to another program.

UNTLifer · October 17, 2018

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

I know we don’t agree on a lot, but you’re on the right path with this post. I think SL will take a senior Mason Fine and then ride off to another program.

I think SL becomes our Patterson/Bowden and stays.

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

7 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

I think SL becomes our Patterson/Bowden and stays.

I don't believe, deep down, you do.

I think you HOPE he does. And I do too.

untbowler · October 17, 2018

18 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

Also thought it was interesting how he talked about the bond he has with Ref and Graham today. If he goes they will follow?

If he goes I have no problem if he takes his OC and DC.

Caw Caw · October 17, 2018

17 hours ago, outoftown said:

I would like to wait at least one more week. Teams that scored 40 or more on NT last season included SMU, army, UAB, FAU, FAU and Troy. Apart from SMU those are all run first teams or at least teams that favor physical play over finesse, and NT looked much worse when playing those. So far NT has not played any proficient run first teams this season. If NT can show that they got this against UAB I would think SL looks much better.

That said, if NT manages UABs offense what I would want to see happen more urgently than SL getting another raise is Reffett under contract til 2020 and the defensive coaches all getting significant raises.

SL is already paid 300k more than all other C-USA HCs, 400k more for example than Lane Kiffin who has actually won a conference championship (but obviously has other baggage). Where I think we need to be better prepared urgently, is for the attack on our assistants and coordinators. The way SL is paid, I get the feeling that either schools already can't afford him, or that there is no amount that will keep them from getting him. Also, if he gets another raise, he is essentially paid so much, that he needs 10 wins a season to justify it. What if Fine gets injured and he only gets 8 or 9 this and next season? Beyond that, this season it looks like there will be fewer interesting P5 openings than usually.

Here's what I don't get on the "let's wait and see" group. What is our next best option. Say you don't want to pay him more. Who is the promised upgrade to what Litrell has delivered that will take the job?

ntsumck · October 17, 2018

It is not only Seth, it is his staff. All great HC have excellent staffs around them. We did not lose a coach this off season. I do not want to lose Seth, but I'm more concerned of who he takes with him (probably everyone). Wherever he goes, he will have more money for his assistants. We might keep 1 or 2 if we hire 1 of them as the new HC and promote someone from the staff to a OC or DC, but I bet most of them will go with Seth and continue to build on what they started here together.

If we were to lose Seth, his replacement will have to compile a staff that not only can coach, but recruit like this staff has done over the past few years.

With that said, we should attract a talented coach.

GreenN'walinsVet · October 17, 2018

4 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

But do the really? Can you say, with any honesty, that Indiana or Kansas have a legitimate shot at a national title? Sure, they are in the right conference and have the money...but so do Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, and the other teams that perennially rule those conferences. Teams like Kansas, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Illinois are P5 in name only.

They do. Period. Is it an uphill battle? Yes, but it would take a really strange year to leave an undefeated P5 conference champ out of the CFP. Meaning they would have to run into 4 other undefeated P5 conference champions and/or an undefeated Notre Dame.

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

4 hours ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

In your scenario, they will go to the playoff. Wake Forests best year ever was a 3 loss Orange Bowl season in 2006. In which they lost.

Wake Forest isn't going undefeated, ever. In that year the bellcows of the ACC had a combined 20 losses. It was a very, very down year for that conference. And somehow WF managed to still lose 2 conference games.

And every team similar to Wake Forest will have a probable mirrored football history. It's just not happening. Seth there or not.

You have to put yourself in this man's shoes.

He is SUPREMELY CONFIDENT in himself & his scheme. If he knows he can do what he's doing here, I bet you he thinks he can do it anywhere.

You may be right, and he looks at Wake Forest (or some-such, like school), and says, you know what? I won't have what I need to win there. I'll wait on another opportunity.
Or, he might say, "Wake has everything they need to be successful except for me. I'll take this challenge. We're going to be competing for ACC championships in 2 years, and if we win it, we may get into the CFP & get a National Championship."

We don't really know.

Edited October 17, 2018 by MeanGreenTexan

NorthTexasWeLove · October 17, 2018

30 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

You have to put yourself in this man's shoes.

He is SUPREMELY CONFIDENT in himself & his scheme. If he knows he can do what he's doing here, I bet you he thinks he can do it anywhere.

You may be right, and he looks at Wake Forest (or some-such, like school), and says, you know what? I won't have what I need to win there. I'll wait on another opportunity.
Or, he might say, "Wake has everything they need to be successful except for me. I'll take this challenge. We're going to be competing for ACC championships in 2 years, and if we win it, we may get into the CFP & get a National Championship."

We don't really know.

Valid point. He may think that. And if he does, good luck to him.

A coach that comes to mind in a similar situation is PJ Fleck. He had the boat rowing at Western Michigan and decided to take off to a school with the same (maybe slightly more) pedigree as Wake in Minnesota. Schools like that have an uphill battle to be competitive against their peers. Only seldom does a coach force their programs like these into consistent national relevance. Beamer and Patterson come to mind as in they rose their programs from the ashes and have had consistent national success.

meangreenJW · October 17, 2018

2 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Valid point. He may think that. And if he does, good luck to him.

A coach that comes to mind in a similar situation is PJ Fleck. He had the boat rowing at Western Michigan and decided to take off to a school with the same (maybe slightly more) pedigree as Wake in Minnesota. Schools like that have an uphill battle to be competitive against their peers. Only seldom does a coach force their programs like these into consistent national relevance. Beamer and Patterson come to mind as in they rose their programs from the ashes and have had consistent national success.

A great example. Coaches who think they can do it anywhere aren't very smart in my opinion. UNT had no tradition but has so much else to work with. Great location, good facilities, money (by G5/CUSA standards), and a progressive administration that has big athletic aspirations. Despite our history in CUSA, I'd say UNT is for sure a top 4 CUSA job.

Take Kansas as example. No facilities, no money (by Big 12 standards), who knows on administration or aspirations. Kansas is for sure a bottom 3 Big 12 (along with KSU and Iowa State).

Getting it going at UNT is a whole different deal than getting it going at Kansas.

PJ Fleck could have held on and waited for a good job. Instead, he got caught thinking he was a miracle worker and could take Minnesota and compete in the Big 10. Ain't happening.

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

2 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Valid point. He may think that. And if he does, good luck to him.

A coach that comes to mind in a similar situation is PJ Fleck. He had the boat rowing at Western Michigan and decided to take off to a school with the same (maybe slightly more) pedigree as Wake in Minnesota. Schools like that have an uphill battle to be competitive against their peers. Only seldom does a coach force their programs like these into consistent national relevance. Beamer and Patterson come to mind as in they rose their programs from the ashes and have had consistent national success.

I certainly hope coach Fleck doesn't really experience a lot of success too soon. His jump into the deep end at a middle-of-the-pack school MIIIIGHT just give Seth a little pause.

But yeah, Seth & PJ definitely seem to be cut from the same cloth as far as self-confidence.

On the flipside of your argument, coach Brohm dominated C-USA when Littrell first got here. He left for perennial bottom-dweller Purdue (not even at Minnesota-level perceptually), and you can definitely see the tide turning there (still a LONG way to go, but getting better). That could give him more confidence to say, "If he can do it, so can I!", and consider a job like Kansas.

GreenN'walinsVet · October 17, 2018

4 minutes ago, meangreenJW said:

A great example. Coaches who think they can do it anywhere aren't very smart in my opinion. UNT had no tradition but has so much else to work with. Great location, good facilities, money (by G5/CUSA standards), and a progressive administration that has big athletic aspirations. Despite our history in CUSA, I'd say UNT is for sure a top 4 CUSA job.

Take Kansas as example. No facilities, no money (by Big 12 standards), who knows on administration or aspirations. Kansas is for sure a bottom 3 Big 12 (along with KSU and Iowa State).

Getting it going at UNT is a whole different deal than getting it going at Kansas.

PJ Fleck could have held on and waited for a good job. Instead, he got caught thinking he was a miracle worker and could take Minnesota and compete in the Big 10. Ain't happening.

agree with most of this, except the Kansas $ part. If Kansas wanted to become a big time Big 12 football school, they could. The money that basketball program brings in is absurd....They just dont want to, because it would detract from the basketball side of things

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

1 minute ago, meangreenJW said:

A great example. Coaches who think they can do it anywhere aren't very smart in my opinion. UNT had no tradition but has so much else to work with. Great location, good facilities, money (by G5/CUSA standards), and a progressive administration that has big athletic aspirations. Despite our history in CUSA, I'd say UNT is for sure a top 4 CUSA job.

Take Kansas as example. No facilities, no money (by Big 12 standards), who knows on administration or aspirations. Kansas is for sure a bottom 3 Big 12 (along with KSU and Iowa State).

Getting it going at UNT is a whole different deal than getting it going at Kansas.

PJ Fleck could have held on and waited for a good job. Instead, he got caught thinking he was a miracle worker and could take Minnesota and compete in the Big 10. Ain't happening.

Think about it historically.
Miami, FL was a bottom-dwelling football program until Schnellenberger & Johnson came through and changed things.
Florida St. was nothing until Bowden showed up.
Kansas St. was nothing until Snyder showed up.
Rutgers was nothing until Schiano showed up.
TCU was nothing until Fran showed up & dropped off Patterson.
Granted, there are many more failures than dudes like the above, but all of those guys thought, "I can take this crap school and turn us into national contenders."

Cerebus · October 17, 2018

3 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Think about it historically.
Miami, FL was a bottom-dwelling football program until Schnellenberger & Johnson came through and changed things.
Florida St. was nothing until Bowden showed up.
Kansas St. was nothing until Snyder showed up.
Rutgers was nothing until Schiano showed up.
TCU was nothing until Fran showed up & dropped off Patterson.

Those are all historical. As in happened decades ago.

Before the TV coverage money widened the gap into a chasm. Before the NCAA allowed the P5 rule making ability over everyone in FBS. Before ESPN took over play off access.

Now the P5 and ESPN have a shared interest in keeping everyone out.

GreenN'walinsVet · October 17, 2018

5 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Think about it historically.
Miami, FL was a bottom-dwelling football program until Schnellenberger & Johnson came through and changed things.
Florida St. was nothing until Bowden showed up.
Kansas St. was nothing until Snyder showed up.
Rutgers was nothing until Schiano showed up.
TCU was nothing until Fran showed up & dropped off Patterson.
Granted, there are many more failures than dudes like the above, but all of those guys thought, "I can take this crap school and turn us into national contenders."

kind of like a journeyman NFL and college coach named Saban took over a stuck in the mud Michigan State program, built them back to relevance, precipitating his jump to LSU where he won a NC, that lead to a head coaching job in the NFL, that pushed him back to college and to Alabama, and well i dont guess i need to go any further.

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

2 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

Those are all historical. As in happened decades ago.

Before the TV coverage money widened the gap into a chasm. Before the NCAA allowed the P5 rule making ability over everyone in FBS. Before ESPN took over play off access.

Now the P5 and ESPN have a shared interest in keeping everyone out.

Right. Sorry, that probably sounds like I'm hoping Littrell will lead us to the P5 promised land and stay here forever. That's definitely not what I think will happen.

But if he happens to go to an existing P5 school that's not going anywhere, he could be that kind of guy for that school.