Top 10 - Week 7 G5 Football Rankings

Philip Ferguson · October 16, 2018

Underdog Top 10 - Week 7

Rank	Team	Points	Conference
1	UCF	110 (11)	American
2	Cincinnati	79	American
3	App State	73	Sun Belt
4	Fresno State	67	Mountain West
5	USF	64	American
6	San Diego State	51	Mountain West
7	Houston	50	American
8	Utah State	47	Mountain West
9	North Texas	22	Conference USA
10	Buffalo	19	Mid-American

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2018/10/16/17983790/underdog-top-10-week-7-g5-football-rankings-ucf-bulls-aac-mountain-west-sun-belt-conference-usa-usf

HoustonEagle · October 16, 2018

It is my belief that the American will be successful at getting a seat at the big boys table. I also think if they see a program they can bring in that will help them achieve their P6 goal they will do just that. If we keep winning we will be that program. i understand they are split evenly currently but if the end goal is P6 status they will kick a Tulane or Tulsa out to bring in another program that can challenge for top 25 status.

Cerebus · October 16, 2018

5 minutes ago, HoustonEagle said:

It is my belief that the American will be successful at getting a seat at the big boys table.

It is my belief that the P5 will shrink down to a P4. There are "haves" that will become "have nots", I don't think anyone who isn't a P5 today has a shot at the P4.

Wag Tag · October 16, 2018

Give me any of the top 10 for a bowl game, except App State! GMG

GrandGreen · October 16, 2018

There is no such thing as a P6, other than a smart marketing ploy for the AAC. A team is either in the P5 are they are not.

IMO, the AAC has no chance in becoming a P5. Some current G5 teams may move up if there is a big shakeup in the P5. NT could be in that conversion if things continue on an upward swing.

Edited October 17, 2018 by GrandGreen

NorthTexan95 · October 16, 2018

7 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

It is my belief that the P5 will shrink down to a P4. There are "haves" that will become "have nots", I don't think anyone who isn't a P5 today has a shot at the P4.

I agree.

In reality, there isn't 6 Power Conferences today. Instead, there's maybe 30 "Power teams" and then a bunch of other school who are really G5's but through luck and/or fortune are in a P6 conference. The real fun is if the eventual P4 Conferences start kicking out schools for more prosperous schools.

MeanGreenTexan · October 16, 2018

27 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

It is my belief that the P5 will shrink down to a P4. There are "haves" that will become "have nots", I don't think anyone who isn't a P5 today has a shot at the P4.

I'm starting to agree with this scenario as well.

It's very important for NT to position ourselves to capitalize in our current situation until the giant reshuffling occurs. Play our cards right consistently & we can be in a conference with some exciting schools.

greenminer · October 16, 2018

48 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

It is my belief that the P5 will shrink down to a P4. There are "haves" that will become "have nots", I don't think anyone who isn't a P5 today has a shot at the P4.

In this scenario, do you think those that don’t make the P4 will be unified, or will there be two or more tiers of “the rest of us”?

NorthTexan95 · October 16, 2018

I think we can all agree that if a P5 conference goes away it will be the Big 12. Texas could go independent or join the Pac 12 or the Big 10. Kansas would probably go Big 10. Oklahoma would go somewhere and probably not be required to bring along Okie State this time. The remaining seven Big 12 teams become the top "G6" conference and we would want to be with them.

However, I would not be surprised if the Big 12 does not go away and we stay with five power conferences. If Texas wants to stay then they are powerful enough to hold the Big 12 conference together. The negative for us in that situation is I never see them wanting to add a Dallas area team.

***DISCLAIMIER: THE ABOVE IS COMPLETELY OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD. I RESERVE THE RIGHT TO CHANGE MY MIND AT A MOMENT'S NOTICE ***

DeepGreen · October 16, 2018

I think Texas' affection for the Big 12 is all smoke and mirrors. I think they feel larger than all the programs in that conference and their end goal is to become the "Notre Dame" of the Southwest.

HoustonEagle · October 17, 2018

I think the problem with the P4 theory is you are shrinking the college football playoff fanbase. If I’m a Kstate fan or Purdue or Rutgers or so on, I believe that there is always a chance of that dream season. That hope is the fuel that keeps fans addicted. If you kick my school out of the club I won’t become a fan of another school. I will just lose interest. While many big schools seem all to happy to eat their young eventually it will become apparent that exclusivity is killing the sport. TV contracts will change and more schools will have access.

untjim1995 · October 17, 2018

If the MWC couldn’t get added in when they had BYU, Utah, and TCU and were clearly better than the old Big East and the ACC back then, nobody is getting added in.

Cerebus is correct. This thing will shrink down to a P4. It will have some interesting names left behind, from the three obvious ones (Baylor, TCU, and Iowa state) to probable/possible names (basically anyone in the Big XII besides UT, OU, and KU).

The question becomes this: will those leftovers mesh into other current G5 conferences like the AAC and MWC or will the leftovers keep the Big XII name and add teams from the G5’s? This is where you have to ask how much TV markets will matter for the G5’s going forward.. Because if they don’t, teams like us, Rice, and a few others might be ok, since, innour case, we could finally break the DFW monopoly that TCU and SMU always have held over us. Even if the leftovers join other conferences, will we be able to move upward, as well? Because the only way upward in the G5 reality for us involves being in a conference with or above SMU. And until that becomes a reality, our spot on the college football totem pole will remain lower than we all want it to be.

outoftown · October 17, 2018

7 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

If the MWC couldn’t get added in when they had BYU, Utah, and TCU and were clearly better than the old Big East and the ACC back then, nobody is getting added in.

Cerebus is correct. This thing will shrink down to a P4. It will have some interesting names left behind, from the three obvious ones (Baylor, TCU, and Iowa state) to probable/possible names (basically anyone in the Big XII besides UT, OU, and KU).

The question becomes this: will those leftovers mesh into other current G5 conferences like the AAC and MWC or will the leftovers keep the Big XII name and add teams from the G5’s? This is where you have to ask how much TV markets will matter for the G5’s going forward.. Because if they don’t, teams like us, Rice, and a few others might be ok, since, innour case, we could finally break the DFW monopoly that TCU and SMU always have held over us. Even if the leftovers join other conferences, will we be able to move upward, as well? Because the only way upward in the G5 reality for us involves being in a conference with or above SMU. And until that becomes a reality, our spot on the college football totem pole will remain lower than we all want it to be.

If you are TCU, do you let SMU into your conference? What if you are Baylor? I think the answer is not trivial. If the answer is no, while significant parts of the AAC move "up", SMU may have no choice but to accept NT onto the same level as they are. The other options may be even less palatable for SMU

Edited October 17, 2018 by outoftown

untjim1995 · October 17, 2018

3 hours ago, outoftown said:

If you are TCU, do you let SMU into your conference? What if you are Baylor? I think the answer is not trivial. If the answer is no, while significant parts of the AAC move "up", SMU may have no choice but to accept NT onto the same level as they are. The other options may be even less palatable for SMU

Maybe so—if tv markets don’t drive this any longer for G5’s.

But if they do, then the three Metroplex schools will continue to be in separate conferences.

wardly · October 17, 2018

It is my understanding that in 5 years the majority of P5 conference t.v. contracts expire. At that time you could see some conference realignment. The Big 12 seems to be at risk, with TEXAS probably being the key to its survival.If it falls apart, then I doubt all of its members will be asked to join PAC 12, Big 10,or SEC. Those left behind could partner with the AAC, who also would probably shed some of its members, such as Tulsa,Tulane,SMU, and others.Those excluded from the new AAC would probably be programs that UNT could partner with. The question is, how big a step up that would be from CSUA, which is now on a par with the SBC.I am 75, and hope to live long enough to see us aligned with a conference that mirrors our athletic program.

MeanGreenTexan · October 17, 2018

1 hour ago, wardly said:

It is my understanding that in 5 years the majority of P5 conference t.v. contracts expire. At that time you could see some conference realignment. The Big 12 seems to be at risk, with TEXAS probably being the key to its survival.If it falls apart, then I doubt all of its members will be asked to join PAC 12, Big 10,or SEC. Those left behind could partner with the AAC, who also would probably shed some of its members, such as Tulsa,Tulane,SMU, and others.Those excluded from the new AAC would probably be programs that UNT could partner with. The question is, how big a step up that would be from CSUA, which is now on a par with the SBC.I am 75, and hope to live long enough to see us aligned with a conference that mirrors our athletic program.

I don't think this is the "Best Case" scenario, as UNT could go on some kind of crazy run over the next 5 years beyond our wildest dreams & we get paired up with Texas & OU in some new conference, but...

That is the ideal scenario for us.
As for your question of, "How big a step up would it be...?"
Would you prefer C-USA as-is (because it's not going to get any better), or would you rather be in a conference with:
Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Memphis, Cincinnatti & West Virginia (and maybe SMU, Oklahoma St) and other like that?

Legend500 · October 18, 2018

Some nice dreaming going on here.

By 2023, everybody's media rights will be renegotiated, and the players are much different. What was a good competitive bidding process between networks flush with money will be a 1-company bid with several others looking for good value assets. ESPN and Fox are not only losing subscribers hand over fist, but they're merging. That means the incumbent bidders for more than a couple games will be ESPN and... well... Fox has to spin-off the regional networks, but it's not clear that with streaming that anyone wants them.

Which means that the next round will be contraction, not expansion. There's a significant possibility that a Megaconference (backed by ESPN) will form, and if it doesn't, there will be a rationalization in the G5 when the AAC, Sun Belt, MAC and Mountain get the sort of contract that CUSA has already moved to.

If there's a megaconference, all hell will break loose, but if not, then it's the death of the XII. Texas stayed in because they got a league network all to themselves, but that Longhorn Network deal is going to get off-loaded - either as a result of the merger or ESPN and Texas agreeing to a deal to close. There's two, perhaps even 3 other power conferences that would absolutely let Texas keep a streaming version of the LHN AND get a conference distribution, and that's the deal Texas (and by extension Oklahoma) will take.