UNT moving up in S&P+

[outoftown]

Despite losing UNT climbed from 44th to 32nd in S&P+. People familiar with the ranking shouldn't be surprised, as Arkansas played well and Liberty and SMU won, making UNTs schedule look better. But the most important part is the following, which to most observers of the game shouldn't be surprising:

The postgame win probability was 91.2% in UNTs favor to 8.8% for LaTech. This is to indicate that If this game would have been played with the breaks falling the way they usually do (i.e. corrected for luck concerning turnovers etc), UNT would win this game 9 times out of ten, and I can only say that this statistic sure expresses something I felt while watching the game.

[Jason Howeth]

Yeah, had the breaks gone our way, or not happened at all, we would come out winning. It'd be closer to a 34-28 score, but still a win. 

[UNTLifer]

[JesseMartin]

I noticed the likely win percentage during the game. Even when we were losing, we were often favored statistically. We have an amazing team. They just need to be ready to overcome tough calls and big plays and such...you know, be ready to win regardless.

[aztecskin]

Yeah it was a weird game to watch because NT looked so good, but lost. Obviously the key mistakes cost the team. That's football though. 

[DT 90]

On ‎9‎/‎30‎/‎2018 at 2:12 PM, outoftown said:

Despite losing UNT climbed from 44th to 32nd in S&P+. People familiar with the ranking shouldn't be surprised, as Arkansas played well and Liberty and SMU won, making UNTs schedule look better. But the most important part is the following, which to most observers of the game shouldn't be surprising:

The postgame win probability was 91.2% in UNTs favor to 8.8% for LaTech. This is to indicate that If this game would have been played with the breaks falling the way they usually do (i.e. corrected for luck concerning turnovers etc), UNT would win this game 9 times out of ten, and I can only say that this statistic sure expresses something I felt while watching the game.

Shouldn't have been that close at the end.  21-3 at one point.  Put the foot on the throat and press hard. Turn overs and a missed field goal at the end of the first half killed it.