Do stars matter in recruiting? The data says they do

[Harry]

Put any coach in front of a microphone and ask him if stars matter and he’ll probably say one or all of the following:

“We don’t look at that stuff.”
“We trust our own evaluations.”
“Give me a 5-star heart any day.”

College football coaches are a pathologically competitive lot and recruiting is the lifeblood of the sport, but they don’t care about recruiting rankings?

Look at it this way: You could build a pretty solid roster of NFL players taken in the fifth round or beyond, but you’d be nuts to take that roster over a roster of first-round picks.

Being a 5-star recruit in and of itself guarantees you nothing, but in the aggregate, a 5-star is much more likely to succeed at the college level than a 2-star.

Don’t ask me, ask the data.

read more:

http://footballscoop.com/news/stars-matter-recruiting-data-says/

 

 

[El Paso Eagle]

I don't think there is any question the 4/5 star players are generally the players with the most "potential". The thing with the rating system that drives me crazy is the way a kid can go from a 3 down to a 2, or bump from a 2 to a 3 based on the school he commits to.  

[Mean Green 93-98]

So . . . how do you explain the large number of our offers that went out to players before they were rated?

[UNTLifer]

15 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

I don't think there is any question the 4/5 star players are generally the players with the most "potential". The thing with the rating system that drives me crazy is the way a kid can go from a 3 down to a 2, or bump from a 2 to a 3 based on the school he commits to.  

I agree and think that the rating system is getting better and better below the 4/5 star level because of the amount of exposure these young men are not receiving in summer camps, 7 on 7 play, etc...  I also still believe that at our level, you still have to wait 4 or 5 years to truly evaluate each class.  As the average rating increases, this need will go away, but until we are routinely signing players rated in the high .80's then we will need to always look back when they graduate.  I mean our leading receiver was a walk-on and the conference player of the year only had one FBS offer.

[Wag Tag]

I think at our level judging talent and development in the weight room and conditioning is the key. I would like to see all DL and OL red shirted! 

[Ben Gooding]

Of course they matter. That's why everyone is getting excited on this board here, is it not? The naysayers will white knuckle clinch to their horrible opinion for the reason of beaten dog syndrome, but facts are facts. Stars matter, 2-3-4-5, they all matter. 

[GMG24]

2 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

Of course they matter. That's why everyone is getting excited on this board here, is it not? The naysayers will white knuckle clinch to their horrible opinion for the reason of beaten dog syndrome, but facts are facts. Stars matter, 2-3-4-5, they all matter. 

Bet you can't find what these guys were all "rated" before our offer... sure it's cool but I'm more concerned with the fact we're beating out multiple 6+ FBS schools for recruits.  This staff can identify and evaluate talent prior to that talent blowing up.  But some people will always find some reason to itch and gritch

[Ben Gooding]

49 minutes ago, GMG24 said:

Bet you can't find what these guys were all "rated" before our offer... sure it's cool but I'm more concerned with the fact we're beating out multiple 6+ FBS schools for recruits.  This staff can identify and evaluate talent prior to that talent blowing up.  But some people will always find some reason to itch and gritch

I'm not bitching. 

Offers and stars are synonymous. And please spare me the BS outlier you're already thinking about trying to dig up. 

Identifying and landing are not synonymous. Have to do both. We haven't been. We are now. 

To the point, it's cool (like you said) because stars matter. 

[GTWT]

The stars reflect someone's evaluation of a player.  If you trust that person's ability to evaluate talent then stars matter.  You hope though, that our coaches, being professionals, trust their own evaluations more & don't rely on the judgement of someone outside the coaching profession.

[outoftown]

It's an interesting article. I did notice, that they only looked at how those players did with the NFL if going to a power 5 school. I do wonder how being at a G5 school impacts players draft chances. Is there a possibility that 80-85 players actually do better in terms of NFL if at G5s?

Edited July 11, 2018 by outoftown

[Green Crazy]

this year they do!!! 😉

[AustinFromUNT]

meanwhile, programs like Notre Dame just choose to no longer want 4* WRs. Really shows you just how big the rift is.

[outoftown]

2 hours ago, AustinFromUNT said:

meanwhile, programs like Notre Dame just choose to no longer want 4* WRs. Really shows you just how big the rift is.

 

That's ok. We'll take him. Seems like a nice and well behaved kid.

[GreenN'walinsVet]

I think on an individual basis, starts can be be very misleading.  There are plenty of multiple star players being both good and bad, as well as were star players as well.

 

Stars matter much more when you're talking about a class as a whole.  The more kids, with more stars, that you can get into your program, the general theory is the better you will be.  This is due to the ability to miss on a kid or two and not have it hinder your program.

[97and03]

16 hours ago, Green Crazy said:

this year they do!!! 😉

Exactly!! Whereas last couple of years all the articles were about how many two stars got drafted!

 

We just need to keep donating and they just need to keep winning games.

[Mad Hatter]

At the individual player level, stars matter less.  Meaning you will always be able to pull examples of Stars that were wrong (better and worse than their Star ranking), and Stars that were right (Higher star players that are good, and lower rated players that aren't as good).  When looking at a large group however, it gives a much better indication of the overall talent being brought in.  Of course there will always be exceptions at the individual level, but there will be fewer Classes of players that are wrong.

[Eagleisland]

Not a simple yes or no.

Stars are important in that they reflect the general consensus on various recruits. However, as in poker, even the best hole cards lose sometimes, and what you do with your cards is almost as important as what you hold.  So, yes, I would rather than pocket aces versus 2-7 offsuit, but sometimes the aces lose even to the worst hands. Sometimes, 5 stars flop because of attitude or other issues and sometimes 1 and 2 star recruits end up playing in the NFL....but overall, I would take 4 or 5 stars over 1 or 2 stars given a choice.