Sun Herald Article: Conference USA proves again that it’s a failing model.

[Arkstfan]

11 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

CUSA is already 2 relatively compact conferences (divisions) that share 1 umbrella.  The football teams only have to travel once outside of their division per year.  If the league really wanted to reduce travel costs for oly sports it could be as simple as reducing the amount of cross divisional games. 

The thing holding 2 geographically dispersed divisions under 1 conference umbrella instead of breaking in to multiple conferences is the CFP subsidy that is paid specifically to 5 named football conferences and the NCAA hoops autobid.  The idea of losing the CFP subsidy and NCAA autobid keeps everyone in check.

That's why it would require coordination.

Hypothetically as an example.

CUSA East holds a press conference and announces it is withdrawing as a group to form a new conference.

CUSA West huddles up and extends invitations to say Louisiana-Lafayette, A-State and South Alabama to get back to 10. Or if UTEP is on board, add NMSU and Troy to go to 12.

There is your Conference USA.

CUSA East joins the Sun Belt except part of the deal is it is renamed (conferences do change their names, see Big XII). So now you have a 16 team monstrosity. You get together and first order of business is to require all members to sponsor football, that requires 12 votes with 16 members, passes 14-2 or 13-3 (depending on ULM). Adios UALR and UTA. Then you vote to expel ULM, that passes 13-0 (teams under consideration for expulsion don't get a vote under the Sun Belt bylaws and vote has to be unanimous).

Now you can expel someone else. Or add JMU who the eastern schools all have a crush on.

The Seaboard League (or whatever craptastic name they come up with) has their press conference announcing their newly formed league. Except it's just the renamed Sun Belt. Remember the Big 8 when it became the Big XII announced itself as a "new" conference but all that meant is they threw away the Big 8 record book and started from scratch, in all dealings with the NCAA and BCS it was still the Big 8, just with a new name, same as the Pac-10 changing its name to the Pac-12, difference being Pac-12 never claimed it was a new league.

So it can be done but it would be messy.

[untjim1995]

26 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

Where does ArkSt want to end up in all this?

There are a ton of Texas teams situated near/on I35:

• North Texas
• SMU
• TCU
• Baylor
• UT
• Texas St
• UTSA
• aTm
• Rice 
• UH

I bolded the G5 teams, italicized the teams that could possibly be left out of the P4.  That would obviously be a very good regional conference, the I35 Adjacent Conference (IAC).   

There is probably going to be some mix of B12 Cast Outs (BCO) + the best they can get.  My first choice would be to joining the BCO.  My second would be forming the strongest IAC we could.  

Teams like LaTech, ASU, UL, etc could be part of that.  I think LaTech would be interested.  I don't know what UL would want.  I think ASU sees itself as more Eastern oriented.  

 

So my belief is that the P4s will split, only allowing OOC games against the teams that are in the MWC or AAC or whatever is left of the Big XII when its all said and done. Basically, these top end G5s will be the new bodybag opponents for the P4s. I see 16 being the number that seems to work best for everyone, including the MWC and AAC, after its all said and done.

The B1G will add KU and try hard for Notre Dame again. I think that is their path to 16 that doesn't involve a huge cost to those teams.

The Pac gets the Texoma 4, to get to 16.

The SEC adds West Virginia and Kansas State to get to 16

The ACC adds UConn and Cincy to get to 16

That means the MWC, with its current 12 teams, would add TCU and Baylor to get to 14.

The AAC will gobble up Iowa State, to replace Cincy, so they will be at 11.

That leaves you 5 spots for the other two top G5 leagues. And DFW is covered by both conferences with SMU and TCU. What I foresee the MWC doing is going after two more Texas schools. They'd love UH, who might just go if they can be in a conference with TCU and Baylor, plus another Texas school, most likely UTSA. If UH doesn't go west, they invite UTEP instead, getting that connection abck to their old WAC days. If UH does go west, Rice goes to the AAC with their private buddies again.

The AAC would then have 5 spots available, no matter which Houston team is there. I believe they will then get the top end of the MAC, NIU and Ohio, as well as MUTS, an F_U, and Marshall.

And then, we will see the SBCUSA converge into a more regionalized conference, which will also include the top end of the FCS schools. 

I know people don't like this scenario, nor do I, but I just believe that we started about 30 years to late in caring about sports like the others did. That I-AA fiasco just killed off too much money and support for too long, as well as the absolute embarrassment of how we ran the program for the first 15 years after we moved back up, from a funding and facilities standpoint. I'll gladly be wrong on all of this, but I suspect that I am not.

[wardly]

2 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

I think if CUSA had stuck to the first plan, add UNT and MAYBE add FIU things would have worked better but the problem was ECU got Marshall and UAB on board to easternize the conference and it became a tack on here and tack on there.

Guy I highly respect said when the realignment shots started getting fired that there were two paths to stability.

First would be two really good leagues that would be at the MWC level or maybe better. One eastern and one southern and then a what's left league that stretched across the region.

Second would be one good league across the east and south and a southern league and an eastern league chasing them.

With ESPN chasing the Fox Regionals, I think regional football is becoming more viable.

But regionalized or not, FAU and FIU are probably going to have to be heavily subsidized by the school no matter what. That is a winner/front-runner market. Even ACC membership with big names regularly on the bill hasn't made Miami a strong attendance school. They have to be well up in the ratings for the locals to care.

Here is the problem, in my opinion, of creating a Western conference combined of CUSA /SBC schools.[Lets just call it the COTTON BELT CONFERENCE  to put a face on it}You start with 5 Texas programs, plus A-State,La, Tech, ULL,[ULM gets left behind],So Miss, and the three Alabama programs. I think it would be easy to put together an Eastern Division of 6 schools, but who would want to play in a Western Division with just Texas teams[Arkansas did for decades in the old SWC]? If A- State and both Louisiana programs demand to go east, the only solution I see is to add New Mexico State to the Western Division and bump either Troy or USA from the East. The big question is are CUSA/SBC going to be pro active or wait 5 years and see what happens when the P5 conference television contracts expire. Somewhere along the line there are going to be too many pigs and not enough tits.[I am originally from Paris Arkansas]

[Arkstfan]

15 minutes ago, wardly said:

Here is the problem, in my opinion, of creating a Western conference combined of CUSA /SBC schools.[Lets just call it the COTTON BELT CONFERENCE  to put a face on it}You start with 5 Texas programs, plus A-State,La, Tech, ULL,[ULM gets left behind],So Miss, and the three Alabama programs. I think it would be easy to put together an Eastern Division of 6 schools, but who would want to play in a Western Division with just Texas teams[Arkansas did for decades in the old SWC]? If A- State and both Louisiana programs demand to go east, the only solution I see is to add New Mexico State to the Western Division and bump either Troy or USA from the East. The big question is are CUSA/SBC going to be pro active or wait 5 years and see what happens when the P5 conference television contracts expire. Somewhere along the line there are going to be too many pigs and not enough tits.[I am originally from Paris Arkansas]

CUSA West if abandoned could have some real issues. Does USM want to align east? Until the shake-up they recruited Florida, Alabama, Georgia more heavily than Texas, would they want to swing back to the west? Does UAB want to be with MTSU, WKU, Charlotte who are more hoops oriented?

If the answer is yes regarding UAB and/or MTSU it could be really messy really fast.

Right now we are approaching the witching hour to borrow a term from Wall Street.

The Sun Belt, AAC, MWC, and BYU television contracts are all set to expire June 30, 2020. The CUSA contract is an unknown, all we know today is it expires June 30, 2018, except for BeIN which if I remember right runs until June 30, 2020. There was a claim that CUSA is looking to do another two year set so everything will expire June 30, 2020.

What happens in those negotiations will go a long way toward determining what the G5 (minus MAC) looks like in the future.

The possible fly in the ointment is that Sun Belt per the last reported news is already negotiating with ESPN because they have the conference title game to deal with and may extend the overall package as part of selling the title game.

My guess is that by March of 2019 BYU, AAC, MWC, and presumably Sun Belt and CUSA are going to have a pretty good idea of what they are looking at in the next TV package and if something is going to change that's when its happening.

 

[UNTFan23]

5 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

CUSA West if abandoned could have some real issues. Does USM want to align east? Until the shake-up they recruited Florida, Alabama, Georgia more heavily than Texas, would they want to swing back to the west? Does UAB want to be with MTSU, WKU, Charlotte who are more hoops oriented?

If the answer is yes regarding UAB and/or MTSU it could be really messy really fast.

Right now we are approaching the witching hour to borrow a term from Wall Street.

The Sun Belt, AAC, MWC, and BYU television contracts are all set to expire June 30, 2020. The CUSA contract is an unknown, all we know today is it expires June 30, 2018, except for BeIN which if I remember right runs until June 30, 2020. There was a claim that CUSA is looking to do another two year set so everything will expire June 30, 2020.

What happens in those negotiations will go a long way toward determining what the G5 (minus MAC) looks like in the future.

The possible fly in the ointment is that Sun Belt per the last reported news is already negotiating with ESPN because they have the conference title game to deal with and may extend the overall package as part of selling the title game.

My guess is that by March of 2019 BYU, AAC, MWC, and presumably Sun Belt and CUSA are going to have a pretty good idea of what they are looking at in the next TV package and if something is going to change that's when its happening.

 

Very interesting stuff. Always enjoy the insights you share.

I wonder if around this time (bolded above) we see a conference re-shuffle take place to a more regional approach.

[TIgreen01]

I don't know about all this regional realignment business, but would we even be having this discussion if FAU hadn't crapped the bed with attendance in the championship game?  Half empty stadiums make everyone associated with them look bad.  It's even worse when your stadium only seats 30k.

Instead of focusing on regional leagues, why not start by choosing some of these schools that really shouldn't be playing at the FBS level and culling them out?  Rice, SMU, FAU, FIU, almost all of the MAC, etc.  I get that universities will almost always want to use athletics as a differentiator against online colleges, and some even have deep enough pockets to richly fund a program.  But if you are SMU and you can't fill up a stadium for going on 40 years or even half-way fill it up for 80% of your games every year....at what point do the schools associated with you in a conference finally stand up and hand you a pink slip?  

[untjim1995]

3 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

I don't know about all this regional realignment business, but would we even be having this discussion if FAU hadn't crapped the bed with attendance in the championship game?  Half empty stadiums make everyone associated with them look bad.  It's even worse when your stadium only seats 30k.

Instead of focusing on regional leagues, why not start by choosing some of these schools that really shouldn't be playing at the FBS level and culling them out?  Rice, SMU, FAU, FIU, almost all of the MAC, etc.  I get that universities will almost always want to use athletics as a differentiator against online colleges, and some even have deep enough pockets to richly fund a program.  But if you are SMU and you can't fill up a stadium for going on 40 years or even half-way fill it up for 80% of your games every year....at what point do the schools associated with you in a conference finally stand up and hand you a pink slip?  

More important to networks and conferences are $$$. Big TV markets and private school donors buy a lot of empty seats in the kinds of the media and conference leadership. That’s the only way to explain the SMUs and F_Us being at this level still...

[Arkstfan]

12 minutes ago, UNTFan23 said:

Very interesting stuff. Always enjoy the insights you share.

I wonder if around this time (bolded above) we see a conference re-shuffle take place to a more regional approach.

Historically that's when realignment happens, during the TV negotiations and that would be about when things are getting serious.

Remember ESPN also runs the Armed Forces Bowl, Birmingham, Bahamas, Boca, Camellia, Tater Bowl, Frisco, St. Pete, Hawai'i, Heart of Dallas, Las Vegas, New Mexico, and Texas. Several of those are G5 aligned. Then you have the Mobile game which would probably prefer being New East and New West realigned Sun Belt/CUSA than Sun Belt / MAC.

The bulk of those bowl deals also expire after the 2019 season.

If you are going to do something, you want to do in time to make it part of your TV and bowl negotiations.

 

[meangreenlax]

28 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

Instead of focusing on regional leagues, why not start by choosing some of these schools that really shouldn't be playing at the FBS level and culling them out?  Rice, SMU, FAU, FIU, almost all of the MAC, etc. 

Wouldn't all those schools say UNT should be on that list? 

[Wag Tag]

What if you played the championship game at the school with the largest average attendance for that year? More money for all!

[wardly]

55 minutes ago, meangreenlax said:

Wouldn't all those schools say UNT should be on that list? 

Yes.I think that in the future a schools athletic budget will determine where they are slotted. Texas has about  $100 million more allocated to athletics that ULM, yet they are still in the same classification. Also, If you think the FAU/UNT championship game was poorly attended, you should have watched W.K. vs. MTSU last year, and they are natural rivals. That championship game had about half this years announced attendance of 14,000, so you can't lay the blame all on the Owls.

[MattMakesLoans]

Let's giving winning a try.  I good bowl season this year, followed by a New Year's Six Bowl next year might just do the trick.

None of the G5 are going to truly compete with P5 on a national level, but they can be seen as regional power houses.

 

[wardly]

22 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

CUSA West if abandoned could have some real issues. Does USM want to align east? Until the shake-up they recruited Florida, Alabama, Georgia more heavily than Texas, would they want to swing back to the west? Does UAB want to be with MTSU, WKU, Charlotte who are more hoops oriented?

If the answer is yes regarding UAB and/or MTSU it could be really messy really fast.

Right now we are approaching the witching hour to borrow a term from Wall Street.

The Sun Belt, AAC, MWC, and BYU television contracts are all set to expire June 30, 2020. The CUSA contract is an unknown, all we know today is it expires June 30, 2018, except for BeIN which if I remember right runs until June 30, 2020. There was a claim that CUSA is looking to do another two year set so everything will expire June 30, 2020.

What happens in those negotiations will go a long way toward determining what the G5 (minus MAC) looks like in the future.

The possible fly in the ointment is that Sun Belt per the last reported news is already negotiating with ESPN because they have the conference title game to deal with and may extend the overall package as part of selling the title game.

My guess is that by March of 2019 BYU, AAC, MWC, and presumably Sun Belt and CUSA are going to have a pretty good idea of what they are looking at in the next TV package and if something is going to change that's when its happening.

 

I see no reason why Arkansas State, LA. Tech, ULL. So. Miss., or any of the 3 Alabama programs would want to go west. It appears that the 5 Texas programs ,UTEP,UNT,UTSA,Texas State, Rice, might find themselves unwanted just like New Mexico State. If Tulsa,SMU, and Houston are left behind when P5 conferences realign they might gag and consider creating a 9 team conference that includes NMSU, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Its going to be musical chairs and some programs are going to be without a seat. Just an old man's opinion.

[Arkstfan]

10 minutes ago, wardly said:

I see no reason why Arkansas State, LA. Tech, ULL. So. Miss., or any of the 3 Alabama programs would want to go west. It appears that the 5 Texas programs ,UTEP,UNT,UTSA,Texas State, Rice, might find themselves unwanted just like New Mexico State. If Tulsa,SMU, and Houston are left behind when P5 conferences realign they might gag and consider creating a 9 team conference that includes NMSU, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Its going to be musical chairs and some programs are going to be without a seat. Just an old man's opinion.

My gut feeling is that if realignment were to happen by 2020 that getting left out probably isn't going to happen (well might happen to ULM UTA and UALR) because of the hassles of dealing with the NCAA and CFP.

But after that, especially close to 2025 when the next CFP deal is being negotiated, then a doughnut hole realignment could happen (ie. some mix of mid-south schools).

[keith]

While I agree things will change (they always do), I'm not sure the situation for CUSA is as dire as the author suggests.  Negative journalism sells and that's what he wrote.  If this year's CUSA championship game was played in Denton instead of Boca Raton, I guarantee Apogee would have been packed.  If that had happened it would have taken a lot of ammunition out of his argument.  Would the whole story have changed or perhaps even been written?  Our last two games were very encouraging with most fans staying until the end.  We didn't see the emptying of the stadium in the second half that we normally see (even during close games).  I don't know, I'm not saying we turned a corner, but it seems like we at least peeked around it this season.   

In terms of attendance, the younger generation today have very short attention spans (just like every generations younger members).  The big difference now is that no one can seem to go 60 seconds without consulting their phones.  An investment we need to make at Apogee is to outfit it with the fastest, strongest WiFi signals possible so everyone can attend games and keep up with their social media fix at the same time. 

Edited December 7, 2017 by keith

[Aquila_Viridis]

Let’s focus on the larger problem facing SO Miss: they are in the middle of #&@* nowhere.

[wardly]

Actually they are well positioned for a CUSA/SBC merger.[ever tried to get to Auburn?]. El Paso and Las Cruces  are in the middle of nowhere, and unless the MWC takes pity on UTEP and NMSU [why should they in the future when they have not so far] probably will be toast  in realignment, especially the Aggies who don't have a home now,