Lets Play Where are they now?

meangreanmick · December 1, 2017

One game is essentially meaningless in the bigger picture of college football. Its years of winning and facilities and having the right personnel to make a true long term shift in recruiting and in the long term program itself. There just aren't any magic pill, overnight success solutions. Nor will one game sink a ship or frankly change any kind of fortunes one way or another. Not even 17 year old kids are going to be swayed from one game (and if they are, those are they kind that wouldn't stay around anyway). But for those who think that if we go to the New Orleans Bowl (and God forbid if we lose) that a giant hole will swallow up Apogee and the entire athletic program will come crashing down from great heights, lets play "where are they now":

2014: La Tech beats Illinois in the HOD bowl - where are they now? La Tech is 4th in CUSA West and barely bowl eligible.

2017: Troy beats LSU - where are they now (Troy is about to play the Mean Green in New Orleans). LSU is 9-3 and #17 in country - how do they even have a program anymore?

2012: UL Monroe beat Arkansas and lost to Auburn in OT, where are they now? They were 4-8 last year, 4-7 this year. How are they not in the SEC?

2007: Appalachian State: Beat Michigan. Where are they now, the Sunbelt conference 10 years later.

2000: Southern Miss beats Alabama. Where are they now - Mean Green conference mates in CUSA.

2013: Georgia Southern beat Florida. Where are they now, 2-9 overall and in the Sun Belt conference

Lets Flip Side this with some select New Orleans Bowl games:

2011: SDSU lost to Sunbelt ULaLa. Where are they now? 10-2 in MWC and apparently building a $250M stadium.

2007: Memphis lost to then Sunbelt FAU 44-27. Where are they now? (hint: doing pretty good with DD as O.C.)

2009: Southern Miss lost to MTSU 42-32. Where are they now? 8-4 and 2nd in West (I would take 8-4 in a down year). But poised to take the top spot next year after we completely implode because we went to the New Orleans Bowl.

2010: Ohio lost to Troy. Where are they now. 2nd in MAC, headed to Bahamas at 8-4

2002: Cincinnati lost to the lowly UNT of the Sunbelt. Where are they now? Tough year 4-8, but I think I would trade places with them in the American.

GMG_Dallas · December 1, 2017

You can't point out Southern Miss as 8-4 on a "down year" but not point out La Tech as "barely bowl eligible" without mentioning they're on a down year. After all, southern miss has gone 0-12, 1-11, and 3-9 since that 2009 bowl and has one 12 win season, one 9 win season, and two 8 win seasons including this season so to be determined (7-6 is the one missing season). Overall, pretty up and down but 8-4 is not a down year for them looking at the entire picture since 2009. LaTech had three straight 9 win season from 2014 to 2016, this year being a down year. They also won 9 games in 2012, with a bad 2013 campaign sandwiched between the two. Don't be selective with your criticism and analysis. There's more to your post that I just don't want to comment on because it would be more of a waste of time.

TheColonyEagle · December 1, 2017

There's one big difference in UNT and everyone of those teams mentioned in regards to beating a P5 (especially a Big 12 team) and the impact it has on our perception....

Those teams are in Rustion, LA, Hattiesburg, MS, Monroe, LA, Troy, AL, etc.

We're in a top 5 media market with tons of local media.

I just think if WE were to pull off a win like that....it would have a greater impact from an attention standpoint. We're always complaining about being ignored by the local DFW media...and we've seen blips of coverage spikes when we've had some success...but beating a big boy (something we've never done in the modern era) would move the needle....

Of course this is speculation because we've never actually done it and seen the results. But I remember seeing local DFW folks start tweeting about the UNT / Georgia game when we took the lead in the 2nd half a few years ago....and then we got blown out in the 2nd half and they went dormant. I always wondered what would've happened had we actually won. When we're good....we need a shot to beat one of these guys.

I argue La Tech beating Illinois or Monroe beating Alabama or GA Southern beating Florida doesn't get the attention because there's no one there to give them attention. If a G5 beats a P5 in the woods and no one is there does it make a sound?

IMHO this gets back to our ingrown, infrastructure advantage we have over SO many other programs....all we need to do is sustain it and pop a big guy. (actually let me flip that....pop a big guy then sustain it) Popping a big guy is like a booster shot...

Edited December 1, 2017 by TheColonyEagle

meangreanmick · December 1, 2017

8 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

You can't point out Southern Miss as 8-4 on a "down year" but not point out La Tech as "barely bowl eligible" without mentioning they're on a down year. After all, southern miss has gone 0-12, 1-11, and 3-9 since that 2009 bowl and has one 12 win season, one 9 win season, and two 8 win seasons including this season so to be determined (7-6 is the one missing season). Overall, pretty up and down but 8-4 is not a down year for them looking at the entire picture since 2009. LaTech had three straight 9 win season from 2014 to 2016, this year being a down year. They also won 9 games in 2012, with a bad 2013 campaign sandwiched between the two. Don't be selective with your criticism and analysis. There's more to your post that I just don't want to comment on because it would be more of a waste of time.

OK, they are both having down years, or they are both not having down years, whichever you prefer - you selectively glossed over the entire stated point.

The analysis is simple, one game is does not make or break a program. We have improving facilities, improving team and good leadership like at no other time in our history - far more important than any one game. Its OK to enjoy that on the ride upwards.

And to be clear, I didn't say Southern Miss was having a down year. I said I would take 8-4 as a down year. According to some here Southern Miss should have imploded after they lost to a SunBelt Team in the N.O.B., so surely they are relegated to down years for the rest of their football history until it dies and is gone.

shaft · December 1, 2017

How do you “pop a big guy” without your star running back, when your D can barely contain Army, & UTSA and couldn’t stop SMU & FAU. This is not the time to go pick a fight with a P5.

Get 10 wins, build some excitement around a bowl trip, when your bowl and get out on the recruiting trail. That’s how you take advantage of our location.

This thread proves the swing for the fences, 1big win theory is bunk.

Edited December 1, 2017 by shaft

TheColonyEagle · December 1, 2017

And I'll add.....the App State beating Michigan?

They were 1AA when they beat Michigan....they moved up a level to get to the Sunbelt.

If you ask most college football fans about App State....the FIRST thing they'll bring up is beating Michigan.

They've ridden that win for 10 years and it wasn't the only reason but it was certainly a part of helping them move up

TheColonyEagle · December 1, 2017

1 minute ago, shaft said:

How to you “pop a big guy” without your star running back, when your D can barely contain Army.

That's a great point.....

Also how do you beat a Sun Belt team that is on the field probably better than a 6-6 big guy but has a lower reputation, without your starting RB and a D that can barely contain Army.

That's the risk here....

Like I said in another post...play Troy or Ark State? Fine. But you BETTER win.

Cerebus · December 1, 2017

This thread is slightly longer than 1500 words. That's longer than Hemingway's Hills Like White Elephants.

Just a fun fact.

MeanGreenTexan · December 1, 2017

7 minutes ago, shaft said:

How to you “pop a big guy” without your star running back, when your D can barely contain Army.

Get 10 wins, build some excitement around a bowl trip, when your bowl and get out on the recruiting trail. That’s how you take advantage of our location.

I think everyone is in agreement here. The only issue is, most are not in agreement on against whom would provide NT the best chance to get there.

I believe many here are just assuming NT rolls into N.O. and just takes care of business VS a blah-blah, SBC team, whatever. That's simply not going to happen.

See, several of us believe a 6-6 P5 team may not be as good as a 10-win SBC team.

Harry · December 2, 2017

GMG!

golfingomez · December 2, 2017

this thread hurts my brain...

GMG_Dallas · December 2, 2017

13 hours ago, meangreanmick said:

OK, they are both having down years, or they are both not having down years, whichever you prefer - you selectively glossed over the entire stated point.

The analysis is simple, one game is does not make or break a program. We have improving facilities, improving team and good leadership like at no other time in our history - far more important than any one game. Its OK to enjoy that on the ride upwards.

And to be clear, I didn't say Southern Miss was having a down year. I said I would take 8-4 as a down year. According to some here Southern Miss should have imploded after they lost to a SunBelt Team in the N.O.B., so surely they are relegated to down years for the rest of their football history until it dies and is gone.

Believe me I didn't gloss over your post I fully realize that you picked all but one regular season p5 upset to prove one side of your point and selective bowl losses to prove the other side of your point. Regular season vs bowl games but ok you're not picking and choosing what works for you. By the way, southern miss had around 10 straight winning seasons starting with that 2000 team that beat Alabama.

Regarding one game not making or breaking one program I agree. My issue is UNT really doesn't have much to break while a quality signature win really can propel us forward. Just differing opinions. I see a new Orleans bowl loss as keeping us where we've been for their past decade and a win not doing much for us. That's my problem. It's like game planning to not lose when in reality risks are a necessary evil some times. I think this is one of those times.