The Changing FBS Football Landscape

Cerebus · December 15, 2017

4 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

I just want to understand why some think this. I'm curious....

Except compared to the big P5 schools they don't have loads of money, history, or success.

They are small private schools that don't deliver much attention. They are big names to us because they are old SWC teams. No one in SEC country, or any college football fan outside of the SWC footprint gives a damn about them. Delivering eyeballs will matter to ESPN and the P4.

Do you think UT/OU would fight to keep them if it meant costing them a single penny?

TheColonyEagle · December 15, 2017

19 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

Do you think UT/OU would fight to keep them if it meant costing them a single penny?

Not necessarily.

But then I would wonder what TTech adds for example over those 2 besides size. (Is that important?)

Miami is a smaller private school than those 2. And they have mayne the most fickle fan base in college football and do not show up unless they're ranked in the top 10.

attendance is down for everyone except for maybe 10 programs and those 10 programs are really the ones that are at the top and everyone else is below

The top 2-3 teams in each P5 conference get the eyeballs

I guess I'm just wondering where the line is. What the standard will be.

I've seen lawsuits discussed. UNT or Memphis or Troy may not be able to succeed there.....but Baylor and TCU would put up a pretty good fight I'm guessing.....

Edited December 15, 2017 by TheColonyEagle

Cerebus · December 15, 2017

6 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

I guess I'm just wondering where the line is. What the standard will be.

I don't think anyone knows exactly where the line is. The truth of the matter is that a lot of media/sports metrics folks see this coming. It's not a complex scheme that has to be masterminded and executed perfectly. All that has to happen is that UT and OU has to bolt the B12 and then all hell breaks lose.

Is Kansas (basketball) going to stick around in the remains of the B12? I think they at least look at other options. Are the B12 remainders still going to get huge TV money from ESPN? I can't see that. Are they going to get booted out of the "select" group of conferences that make NCAA FBS rules? I can't see why they would keep them in.

There you have it, the B12 is no longer really a "power" conference, and that doesn't even consider what happens to the rest of the conferences when UT/OU and maybe Kansas jump ship. If the above happens it just starts a big chain reaction. Other B12 schools will try to jump ship with UT/OU, who might not even up in the same conference. Other powerful teams start to look at their conferences. Does Ohio State really want to be sharing money with Maryland, does Alabama really want to split cash with Vanderbilt?

TIgreen01 · December 15, 2017

4 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

I guess I'm just wondering where the line is. What the standard will be.

I've seen lawsuits discussed. UNT or Memphis or Troy may not be able to succeed there.....but Baylor and TCU would put up a pretty good fight I'm guessing.....

I think you answered your own question, and Cerebus addressed this earlier. The big P5s aren't as interested in cutting schools like Baylor and TCU off as the TV networks are. Schools like TCU/Baylor and Tech still have a lot of pull in state governments and Baylor, specifically, has the lawyers to make any attempt to cut them out go extremely poorly.

At some point, it would be nice for the schools to make a show of flipping off the TV networks in their attempts to destabilize FBS football.

I also don't see the G5s being left out of the playoff forever. I think they will eventually expand and include the champions of every league. What the TV networks are most afraid of, though, is that too many G5s make it through to a semifinal or final. Two G5s paired up in a national semifinal or final would be devastating to their ratings as the NCAA basketball tournament has shown. But I think they have figured out how to seed the tournament now to avoid that by pitting the best G5s against each other in early rounds. They do this every year in the NCAA bball tournament. You wouldn't want to have a ton of upsets of the P5s in the opening rounds as that risks losing the Ohio States, Bamas, etc that will pull tons of viewers. Instead, you have the opening round pit the MWC against the AAC, Suckbelt vs MAC, etc....with the hope that the upsets happen there instead and that a weaker and more beatable G5 then gets knocked out by a top 5 P5 team in the next round.

A tournament that included everyone would completely obliterate the money that they are making now, and losing on low-level bowls. Granted, I don't know that ESPN wants to lose all the holiday time slot filler bowl games they have now in favor of this...

TheColonyEagle · December 15, 2017

Ok ....I think I see that.

Then there's no Big 12 and no one of UT/OU stature to bring them back up.

Then Baylor and TCU have to have someone want them.....

TIgreen01 · December 15, 2017

7 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

Ok ....I think I see that.

Then there's no Big 12 and no one of UT/OU stature to bring them back up.

Then Baylor and TCU have to have someone want them.....

It's just not going to happen. I'll believe it when I see it. Just because TV execs want this does not make it inevitable. They already tried this in the 90s and politicians in each state wouldn't let them leave behind their alma-maters. Recently Baylor broke out the lawyers after Tamu left for the SEC and it looked like things could get squirrelly in the Big 12.

As long as the rich privates WANT to participate in FBS they will. It will take them voluntarily dropping out (ala the Ivy league), impo. Maybe not all of them have the political, legal and monetary pull of a Baylor (ie TCU and SMU getting dropped in the 90s), but enough of them do in every one of these big P5s to keep this from happening.

Edited December 15, 2017 by TIgreen01

Cerebus · December 15, 2017

40 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

Just because TV execs want this does not make it inevitable. They already tried this in the 90s and politicians in each state wouldn't let them leave behind their alma-maters.

You mean when TCU and SMU, two small private schools, got booted out of the SWC->B12 move? The only reason Baylor was able to force their way in was because of Ann Richards.

Tech might be safe because they are a much bigger school with many more alumni... but maybe not. I would guess there is a good chance that the B12 joins the AAC in the "P6". Power in name only.

Can Tech or TCU/Baylor/Iowa St/Kstate/etc make themselves attractive enough to get an invite from the SEC/PAC12/B10? We'll find out soon enough.

TheColonyEagle · December 15, 2017

13 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

I would guess there is a good chance that the B12 joins the AAC in the "P6". Power in name only.

And there is our goal.

Keep winning

Keep building

Keep growing

That has to be our goal when the shift happens in a few years. It seems like the administration is prepping and setting us up for that now. It is so critical we keep this momentum that is really just getting started.

MeanGreenTexan · December 15, 2017

12 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

And there is our goal.

Keep winning

Keep building

Keep growing

That has to be our goal when the shift happens in a few years. It seems like the administration is prepping and setting us up for that now. It is so critical we keep this momentum that is really just getting started.

Glad we already have Apogee, and it's easily expandable. Glad we're getting a very nice IPF. These things are essential in proving NT is serious about competing at the highest level. The winning must follow, and I'm circling the game in Fayetteville next season as the one that puts us on the map. No more "we gave IA/GA a good run", instead, "we beat AR!"

untjim1995 · December 15, 2017

The reality is that the networks and conferences with all of the pool want big names, big markets, and good-to-great academics. If you are in the Big XII, you have three brands that fit these criteria, in UT, OU, and KU--with UT hitting all 3. UT and KU have bigger TV markets than OU and better academics (AAU membership), while OU has the most success combined in both revenue sports and piggybacks on the entire region (from KC down to Houston) for eyeballs.

After this, you really fall down academically in the state schools (except ISU, but they have small market issues) and the two private schools have no marketable eyeballs or curriculum to make other conferences want them. TCU is way better off now than Baylor, just because of DFW and because they aren't viewed as "religious" as Baylor, which will NEVER get accepted in the Pac or B1G from that alone, nor will the SEC ever come after them because they have Texas already covered with A&M and they already have Vandy to help cover their needs of non-reporting because they have a token private school in their conference. You could say the ACC might be interested, but again, I think they have serval other choices to add that are better geographical and cultural fits than Baylor.

I've said all along that the programs that will be most coveted are in this order:

1.) Texas

2.) OU

3.) KU

4.) WVU

5.) OSU

6.)Texas Tech

7.) Kansas State

8.) Iowa State

9.) TCU

10.) Baylor

TIgreen01 · December 16, 2017

22 hours ago, Cerebus said:

The only reason Baylor was able to force their way in was because of Ann Richards.

That’s exactly my point. They have had and will have enough powerful alums, politicians and legal folks to keep them in. There are enough schools like them in each P5 conference to keep a full culling from happening.

Edited December 16, 2017 by TIgreen01

Cerebus · December 16, 2017

26 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

That’s exactly my point. They have had and will have enough powerful alums, politicians and legal folks to keep them in. There are enough schools like them in each P5 conference to keep a full culling from happening.

My point is Baylor forced their way in but several schools didn't. Which is exactly what I expect to happen. Some schools in now won't be.

Cerebus · December 18, 2017

Well this is certainly a wrinkle:

ESPN President John Skipper resigns, citing substance addiction problem

Quote

Skipper led a sports juggernaut that is a big moneymaker for parent company Walt Disney Co., but it has been struggling as its main cable channel's ratings and subscriber counts fall. It also may be on the cusp of transformation — Disney agreed last week to acquire much of the Fox entertainment empire, including nearly two dozen regional sports channels.

---

Bristol, Conn.-based ESPN has been grappling with subscriber losses and lower ratings. Seven years ago, ESPN was available in about 99 million homes in the U.S., but now it is found in about 87 million homes, according to Nielsen data. Those losses have significantly reduced the fees that Disney receives from pay-TV operators for the rights to carry ESPN, which is the most expensive basic cable channel.

Skipper is more or less the mastermind of what/how ESPN has worked in the modern era. It will be interesting to see who Disney selects to be the new leader. It could change plans in a big way.

greenminer · December 18, 2017

It completely escaped me that ESPN is owned by Disney.

Does the FOX acquisition include Fox Sports? If so, that would put the two big sports networks under one roof.

UNTFan23 · December 18, 2017

16 minutes ago, greenminer said:

It completely escaped me that ESPN is owned by Disney.

Does the FOX acquisition include Fox Sports? If so, that would put the two big sports networks under one roof.

Just the regional channels (FSSW for example). Fox and Fox Sports 1/2 are still a Fox property.

Hope that makes sense.

untbowler · December 18, 2017

1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

Well this is certainly a wrinkle:

ESPN President John Skipper resigns, citing substance addiction problem

Skipper is more or less the mastermind of what/how ESPN has worked in the modern era. It will be interesting to see who Disney selects to be the new leader. It could change plans in a big way.

Does not help that there are a number of sexual harassment allegations and employees who are or have been suspended under his watch, with many women also noting that the upper brass did very little.