G5 To P5 Coaches - Track Record

[BillySee58]

Since Seth Littrell got hired, fans on the board have talked about him leaving as soon as he gets the chance. As we have won this year, that talk has heated up as people seem convinced P5 teams are going to be knocking on his door en masse. We are obviously looking at things from a paranoid North Texas fan point of view, and not a P5 fan/donor point of view, where there is much more skepticism and pickiness when it comes to filling a football HC vacancy.

I did some research on the G5 coaches who got hired by P5 schools last offseason. Here are all 5 of them, and their resumes as head coaches before they got the P5 HC job they currently hold:

Matt Rhule - Led Temple to 3 straight bowl eligible seasons, 2 straight AAC title game appearances, and a 2016 AAC championship. Hired by Baylor.

PJ Fleck - Led WMU to 3 straight 8-win seasons including a 13-1 conference champion in 2016. Hired by Minnesota.

Willie Taggart - Took WKU from 0-12 in 2009 before he was hired to back to back winning seasons in 2011 and 2012, took USF from 3-9 in 2012 before he was hired to 8 wins in 2015 and 11 wins in 2016. Hired by Oregon.

Jeff Brohm - 31-10 with 3 straight 8+ win seasons and back to back CUSA titles. Hired by Purdue.

Tom Herman -22-4 with wins over #3 Oklahoma, #3 Louisville, #9 Florida State, and a conference championship. Beat 6 ranked teams in two seasons. Hired by Texas.

All of these guys except Taggart won a conference championship, but Taggart won at two FBS stops taking over for fired HCs and he showed a lot of prowess on the recruiting trail. All of these guys had 11 win seasons except Rhule, who had back to back 10 win seasons including a CUSA championship. 3 of these guys (Taggart, Fleck, and Herman) were making national headlines with their successes on the recruiting trail.

So that's what P5 schools are looking for. Did the coach show excellence on the recruiting trail? Did the coach win and sustain it? Did the coach win the conference, and if not were they in contention annually? I still maintain that Littrell is another double-digit win season and CUSA championship away from a P5 school being convinced on him. What happens the rest of the year is big. We win out and he expedites that process, or at least would need less out of 2018 than he would if we didn't win out.

So again, we're talking about likely a CUSA championship or at least two double-digit win seasons from being hired away. I think we'd all be happy with our program being in that state.

[LongJim]

Good post, and I agree with it.

[greeneagle1]

33 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

Since Seth Littrell got hired, fans on the board have talked about him leaving as soon as he gets the chance. As we have won this year, that talk has heated up as people seem convinced P5 teams are going to be knocking on his door en masse. We are obviously looking at things from a paranoid North Texas fan point of view, and not a P5 fan/donor point of view, where there is much more skepticism and pickiness when it comes to filling a football HC vacancy.

I did some research on the G5 coaches who got hired by P5 schools last offseason. Here are all 5 of them, and their resumes as head coaches before they got the P5 HC job they currently hold:

Matt Rhule - Led Temple to 3 straight bowl eligible seasons, 2 straight AAC title game appearances, and a 2016 AAC championship. Hired by Baylor.

PJ Fleck - Led WMU to 3 straight 8-win seasons including a 13-1 conference champion in 2016. Hired by Minnesota.

Willie Taggart - Took WKU from 0-12 in 2009 before he was hired to back to back winning seasons in 2011 and 2012, took USF from 3-9 in 2012 before he was hired to 8 wins in 2015 and 11 wins in 2016. Hired by Oregon.

Jeff Brohm - 31-10 with 3 straight 8+ win seasons and back to back CUSA titles. Hired by Purdue.

Tom Herman -22-4 with wins over #3 Oklahoma, #3 Louisville, #9 Florida State, and a conference championship. Beat 6 ranked teams in two seasons. Hired by Texas.

All of these guys except Taggart won a conference championship, but Taggart won at two FBS stops taking over for fired HCs and he showed a lot of prowess on the recruiting trail. All of these guys had 11 win seasons except Rhule, who had back to back 10 win seasons including a CUSA championship. 3 of these guys (Taggart, Fleck, and Herman) were making national headlines with their successes on the recruiting trail.

So that's what P5 schools are looking for. Did the coach show excellence on the recruiting trail? Did the coach win and sustain it? Did the coach win the conference, and if not were they in contention annually? I still maintain that Littrell is another double-digit win season and CUSA championship away from a P5 school being convinced on him. What happens the rest of the year is big. We win out and he expedites that process, or at least would need less out of 2018 than he would if we didn't win out.

So again, we're talking about likely a CUSA championship or at least two double-digit win seasons from being hired away. I think we'd all be happy with our program being in that state.

I wish I could put 100 trophies on this one!

[TheColonyEagle]

Excellent post. You are right on. From a P5 POV, it is too early to turn over a program to Littrell at this point.

This speculation is more about the outside view of UNT (Vito's view) and our paranoia as a fan base (as you stated). Both are misplaced as this point.

I still contend Seth Littrell will be standing in the end zone giving Mason Fine a big ol' hug when he runs out on his senior day.

 

[emmitt01]

The other HUGE thing that many are missing is this: 

P5 athletic directors have only half of the "power" when it comes to these decisions.  Monied donors, boosters and the like have to be equally sold on the guy who is being brought in.  

There is a "sexiness" factor that has to be in place.  Thus far, SL isn't sexy enough to pass on G5 candidates with a longer track record, or even P5 retreads who have made it work in the past.

[TheReal_jayD]

3 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

Since Seth Littrell got hired, fans on the board have talked about him leaving as soon as he gets the chance. As we have won this year, that talk has heated up as people seem convinced P5 teams are going to be knocking on his door en masse. We are obviously looking at things from a paranoid North Texas fan point of view, and not a P5 fan/donor point of view, where there is much more skepticism and pickiness when it comes to filling a football HC vacancy.

I did some research on the G5 coaches who got hired by P5 schools last offseason. Here are all 5 of them, and their resumes as head coaches before they got the P5 HC job they currently hold:

Matt Rhule - Led Temple to 3 straight bowl eligible seasons, 2 straight AAC title game appearances, and a 2016 AAC championship. Hired by Baylor.

PJ Fleck - Led WMU to 3 straight 8-win seasons including a 13-1 conference champion in 2016. Hired by Minnesota.

Willie Taggart - Took WKU from 0-12 in 2009 before he was hired to back to back winning seasons in 2011 and 2012, took USF from 3-9 in 2012 before he was hired to 8 wins in 2015 and 11 wins in 2016. Hired by Oregon.

Jeff Brohm - 31-10 with 3 straight 8+ win seasons and back to back CUSA titles. Hired by Purdue.

Tom Herman -22-4 with wins over #3 Oklahoma, #3 Louisville, #9 Florida State, and a conference championship. Beat 6 ranked teams in two seasons. Hired by Texas.

All of these guys except Taggart won a conference championship, but Taggart won at two FBS stops taking over for fired HCs and he showed a lot of prowess on the recruiting trail. All of these guys had 11 win seasons except Rhule, who had back to back 10 win seasons including a CUSA championship. 3 of these guys (Taggart, Fleck, and Herman) were making national headlines with their successes on the recruiting trail.

So that's what P5 schools are looking for. Did the coach show excellence on the recruiting trail? Did the coach win and sustain it? Did the coach win the conference, and if not were they in contention annually? I still maintain that Littrell is another double-digit win season and CUSA championship away from a P5 school being convinced on him. What happens the rest of the year is big. We win out and he expedites that process, or at least would need less out of 2018 than he would if we didn't win out.

So again, we're talking about likely a CUSA championship or at least two double-digit win seasons from being hired away. I think we'd all be happy with our program being in that state.

Good post man! 

[Wag Tag]

So really it boils down to recruiting, wining and having 1-2 signature wins? He will be here a couple of more seasons with offensive talent that could be really special!

[greenminer]

Billy, how many P5 HC vacancies were filled total last year (regardless of where the hires came from)? It might also be relevant to look at how many will be filled this year, too, so that one can get a grasp on the need/demand.

[Venson]

5 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

Since Seth Littrell got hired, fans on the board have talked about him leaving as soon as he gets the chance. As we have won this year, that talk has heated up as people seem convinced P5 teams are going to be knocking on his door en masse. We are obviously looking at things from a paranoid North Texas fan point of view, and not a P5 fan/donor point of view, where there is much more skepticism and pickiness when it comes to filling a football HC vacancy.

I did some research on the G5 coaches who got hired by P5 schools last offseason. Here are all 5 of them, and their resumes as head coaches before they got the P5 HC job they currently hold:

Matt Rhule - Led Temple to 3 straight bowl eligible seasons, 2 straight AAC title game appearances, and a 2016 AAC championship. Hired by Baylor.

PJ Fleck - Led WMU to 3 straight 8-win seasons including a 13-1 conference champion in 2016. Hired by Minnesota.

Willie Taggart - Took WKU from 0-12 in 2009 before he was hired to back to back winning seasons in 2011 and 2012, took USF from 3-9 in 2012 before he was hired to 8 wins in 2015 and 11 wins in 2016. Hired by Oregon.

Jeff Brohm - 31-10 with 3 straight 8+ win seasons and back to back CUSA titles. Hired by Purdue.

Tom Herman -22-4 with wins over #3 Oklahoma, #3 Louisville, #9 Florida State, and a conference championship. Beat 6 ranked teams in two seasons. Hired by Texas.

All of these guys except Taggart won a conference championship, but Taggart won at two FBS stops taking over for fired HCs and he showed a lot of prowess on the recruiting trail. All of these guys had 11 win seasons except Rhule, who had back to back 10 win seasons including a CUSA championship. 3 of these guys (Taggart, Fleck, and Herman) were making national headlines with their successes on the recruiting trail.

So that's what P5 schools are looking for. Did the coach show excellence on the recruiting trail? Did the coach win and sustain it? Did the coach win the conference, and if not were they in contention annually? I still maintain that Littrell is another double-digit win season and CUSA championship away from a P5 school being convinced on him. What happens the rest of the year is big. We win out and he expedites that process, or at least would need less out of 2018 than he would if we didn't win out.

So again, we're talking about likely a CUSA championship or at least two double-digit win seasons from being hired away. I think we'd all be happy with our program being in that state.

Excellent work. Glad you did the research for us.

[Harry]

solid post!

[jtm0097]

Great post

[BillySee58]

Thanks, guys

[brooks91]

This needs to be on a scheduled bump.

Not saying it couldn’t happen, but I think Littrell is still unproven in the eyes of a P5. I would say next year or the year after he starts being a serious contender if we continue our upward trend.

[Travis]

Thank you for this post. I gave you an upvote... If I could, I would give you more to allow you to feel the very feels I feel after reading this post.

1. I especially like it because it reinforces my pre-biased suppositions and gives a greater sense of validation to my unshakable views.  

2. It needs to be equally stated that should you have presented evidence to the contrary, which would be instantly viewed as a threat and a challenge to my already set beliefs, I would have down voted you with a high degree of pleasure and satisfaction.  

These 2 points help my increasing need to be in control of my social world and how it suits me. 

Thank you for making me feel better about my life today. 

[brooks91]

Let’s add recruiting into this. Here’s the recruiting rankings of the coaches mentioned (per 247).

Matt Rhule AAC rank:

2013: 7th

2014: 4th

2015: 5th

2016: 2nd

 

PJ Fleck MAC rank :

2013: 7th

2014: 1st

2015: 2nd

2016: 1st

 

Willie Taggart AAC rank:

2013: 1st

2014: 1st

2015: 1st

2016: 5th

 

Jeff Brohm CUSA rank:

2014: 5th

2015: 11th

2016: 7th

 

Tom Herman AAC rank:

2015: 7th

2016: 1st

 

All except for maybe Brohm, can be argued that they’re great recruiters. Littrell has had the 8th and 11th ranked classes in CUSA. I think this would be a negative strike for a P5 AD although I think recruiting will pick up after this season.

[BillySee58]

1 hour ago, Travis said:

Thank you for this post. I gave you an upvote... If I could, I would give you more to allow you to feel the very feels I feel after reading this post.

1. I especially like it because it reinforces my pre-biased suppositions and gives a greater sense of validation to my unshakable views.  

2. It needs to be equally stated that should you have presented evidence to the contrary, which would be instantly viewed as a threat and a challenge to my already set beliefs, I would have down voted you with a high degree of pleasure and satisfaction.  

These 2 points help my increasing need to be in control of my social world and how it suits me. 

Thank you for making me feel better about my life today. 

Thanks, man! That's definitely why I created an account on this here message board. The sole reason for my posts are to conform to popular, pre-conceived opinions so that I can get as many upvotes as possible. It makes me feel better about myself seeing the green upvotes. Downvotes lead to intense soul searching in order to figure out how I can better post what people are already thinking and feeling.

I really appreciate your contribution towards confirming that I am successfully conveying others opinions and thoughts through my posts!

[BillySee58]

34 minutes ago, brooks91 said:

Let’s add recruiting into this. Here’s the recruiting rankings of the coaches mentioned (per 247).

Matt Rhule AAC rank:

2013: 7th

2014: 4th

2015: 5th

2016: 2nd

 

PJ Fleck MAC rank :

2013: 7th

2014: 1st

2015: 2nd

2016: 1st

 

Willie Taggart AAC rank:

2013: 1st

2014: 1st

2015: 1st

2016: 5th

 

Jeff Brohm CUSA rank:

2014: 5th

2015: 11th

2016: 7th

 

Tom Herman AAC rank:

2015: 7th

2016: 1st

 

All except for maybe Brohm, can be argued that they’re great recruiters. Littrell has had the 8th and 11th ranked classes in CUSA. I think this would be a negative strike for a P5 AD although I think recruiting will pick up after this season.

Thanks for researching these! I mentioned these the last time I posted these coaches records but lost the research with my previous phone. 

[golfingomez]

there are unusual cases of course, see Texas Tech hiring Kingsbury after only one year as a true OC, and 1 year with a P5 program, see Gus Malzahn, who had one exciting year as head coach at Arky St., or even Hugh Freeze who blazed that trail for Malzahn.

But considering that Riley appears to have the Okie job locked up for the next few years, i don't think he gets a homecoming from them anytime soon, and it doesn't look like any of the schools he has built his pedigree with will have an opening this year...

i'm thinking we have him solidly for one more year

[Travis]

2 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

Thanks, man! That's definitely why I created an account on this here message board. The sole reason for my posts are to conform to popular, pre-conceived opinions so that I can get as many upvotes as possible. It makes me feel better about myself seeing the green upvotes. Downvotes lead to intense soul searching in order to figure out how I can better post what people are already thinking and feeling.

I really appreciate your contribution towards confirming that I am successfully conveying others opinions and thoughts through my posts!

I feel our relationship is rather symbiotic and necessary for our own self-efficacy. Assuming we continue to agree with each other, of course. 

[Mike Jackson]

I would like to add that I don’t think Seth leaves for a program that has been historically middle of the road or bottom in a P5 conference.   He might make an exception for Big 12 programs like Baylor and Texas Tech just because of the location.  To be considered for the best P5 jobs he needs out perform Dickey’s Sun Belt run.  If he does that North Texas should be in a great position to afford to hire any of the best up and coming young  Coordinators.  Seth knows the potential here.  And if he values stability and less scrutiny he may want to get his children through elementary school before moving to a P5 program that is a fishbowl.  I think a 10 to 12 year run here is not out of the question if support grows here proportionally with success.