Why Do We Struggle With Recruiting?

AustinFromUNT · November 6, 2017

“Build it and they will come”

Built Apogee

”Win and they will come”

Now 6-3 (5-1) about to clinch the west division.

”Change the culture”

We’re not where we need to be, but we’re working on it.

We’ve recently lost 2 of our better commits, and picked up a really good one. Why do you think we are struggling with recruiting right now?

TreeFiddy · November 6, 2017

We are on the verge of playing in the conference championship game if we take care of business in our last two conference games. What makes you say we are struggling?

AustinFromUNT · November 6, 2017

40 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

We are on the verge of playing in the conference championship game if we take care of business in our last two conference games. What makes you say we are struggling?

We aren’t struggling on the field, I mean that we lost our 3rd and 5th highest rated recruits in the last month.

BillySee58 · November 6, 2017

50 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

We are on the verge of playing in the conference championship game if we take care of business in our last two conference games. What makes you say we are struggling?

I made this graph a few months back. The guys in this current class are not the ones on the verge of playing in the conference championship. Actually, the upperclassmen on this team are guys from the two best classes, offer-list wise, that we have signed in recent history. 2014 and 2015. Compare that to our team two years ago with upperclassmen from our two worst classes, 2012 and 2013.

I don't think Littrell and co are great recruiters. However, they have been opportunistic recruiters, good evaluators, and good developers.

They got guys who held many FBS offers at various stages in their recruiting processes but were not actively being recruited by other FBS schools when we got them to commit to us late (i.e. Darden, Hamilton, Nick Smith, Jenkins, etc). That's opportunistic recruiting.

They got guys with no other FBS offers and proved their ability to evaluate as those guys have gone on to be solid contributors, like Fine, Kemon Hall, Ejiya, Lawrence (walkon), Sosaia Mose, and Khairi Muhammad among others. That's good evaluating.

And they've done a great job developing Fine at QB, as well as many others and the recruits they have signed with good offer lists are panning out at a VERY high rate (Bussey, Guyton, Smith, etc.). They've done a great job so far developing their players.

I don't think this is a good recruiting staff. I think if we had a good recruiting staff we'd see us winning more recruiting battles. It's not solely or even mainly because we are North Texas and it's hard to recruit here. But like I said, this staff is doing a good job being opportunistic when top prospects are left with dried up offers, evaluating no-offer guys, and developing. Those are this staffs strengths and it's working just fine.

That being said, this class needs to pick it up or else it will more closely resemble the upperclassmen classes of the 1-11 team than the 2017 team. I'm sure we'll snag some guys at the end again, but it would be extremely helpful to win recruiting battles straight up as well with our momentum that we have.

MeanGreenTexan · November 6, 2017

Good stuff as usual @BillySee58. It’s a lot easier for Littrell to hit on offensive guys too since we are running a system very similar to what most TX/OK HS players are running. A lot of what he needs to see is already on film.

southsideguy · November 6, 2017

college town, hot chicks what else does a college student want besides beer? If we had a fan base it would help when they came to visit and saw a sold out or near sold out game. The students not showing sends a bad message. Maybe the school can offer Football watching 101 for one credit. Unlike UNC they would have to attend class at the stadium every home game.

TreeFiddy · November 6, 2017

Littrell's 2 recruiting classes (2016 & 2017) account for 7 starters on offense (Bussey, Lawrence, Mose, Henson, Mayfield, Guyton, and Fine) and 5 on defense (Jenkins, Hall, Wheeler, Ejiya, and Muhammad), so I wouldn't necessarily say that the team is dominated by upper classmen from the 2014 & 2015 classes.

There are also a few players from the 2013/2014/2015 classes that are starting, but that I don't think would qualify as B recruits. I don't remember exactly the criteria for B rating, but Flusche was a walkon, Elex Woodworth 2 star with no other offers, Kelvin Smith 2 stars with no other offiers, Tillman Johnson was a 2 star with 2 other offers, Jordan Murrary 2 star with 2 other offers.

*source 247sports

I did not count special teams/kickers.

BTG_Fan1 · November 6, 2017

UNT is viewed as a fall back school both for recruits and most students as well. The years of losing, and from what has been said about the past coaches not going around like they should have hurt UNT. Beans coach said, he had not seen a UNT coach in years.. Having 1 good team every 4/5 years also hurts in fan support, thus leading to lower donors and in the end less $ to spend.

Also, it will sound dumb but the lack of QB success has hurt UNT. DT put up solid #s but after that we played QB musical chairs till we hit on Fine. QB play evaluates everyone else, and can downgrade everyone else as well. Fine alone is a major selling point for the staff to other recruits because he is someone who will be here another 2 years. Having multiple 1st or 2nd team guys in CUSA will help as well.

Another factor, we lost half of our coaching staff. The new coaches have to go and create/Continue those connections with the HS staffs.. there is now bridge period between LeBlanc and Yellock or Ek and Koontz for these new guys to learn who to connect with and so on.. This staff has shown the ability to find diamonds and late class signees that have been over looked (Greg White, Siggers, Darden). The past class was hampered because of the number of OL they got. OL are not the sexiest of recruits. Parish has the frame and feet to potentially be a really good LT, Moses we have been told if he was 2 or 3 inches taller he is on a P5, and Brammer was challenging for the RT job before the season..

Its a challenge to hang onto kids as well. Yes, we are winning and getting it done on the field this year, but we are in need of more statement wins like USM. Beating a 2-5 or whatever It was ODU team by 7 is not going to get catch the eye of the recruit, let alone leave a super positive memory of UNT. The UTSA win was big because of the idea that UTSA could/would run the table because they beat Baylor. Again, we have a losing history and we have to change that view throughout the entire state.

To me, UNT is in a good spot right now if we can preform like we should. JayD talked about a number of kids are looking to commit and are taking visits.. UNT needs to go out and take UTEP/Rice out to the woodshed and throughly dominate them along the lines of like 50+ to 20.. Let these recruits see UNT dominate in person. Army as well should and could be another similar game like UTSA that it’s tooth and nail vs a solid Army team that we sometimes recruit against.

Edited November 6, 2017 by BTG_Fan1

p_phelps · November 6, 2017

8 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

I made this graph a few months back. The guys in this current class are not the ones on the verge of playing in the conference championship. Actually, the upperclassmen on this team are guys from the two best classes, offer-list wise, that we have signed in recent history. 2014 and 2015. Compare that to our team two years ago with upperclassmen from our two worst classes, 2012 and 2013.

I don't think Littrell and co are great recruiters. However, they have been opportunistic recruiters, good evaluators, and good developers.

They got guys who held many FBS offers at various stages in their recruiting processes but were not actively being recruited by other FBS schools when we got them to commit to us late (i.e. Darden, Hamilton, Nick Smith, Jenkins, etc). That's opportunistic recruiting.

They got guys with no other FBS offers and proved their ability to evaluate as those guys have gone on to be solid contributors, like Fine, Kemon Hall, Ejiya, Lawrence (walkon), Sosaia Mose, and Khairi Muhammad among others. That's good evaluating.

And they've done a great job developing Fine at QB, as well as many others and the recruits they have signed with good offer lists are panning out at a VERY high rate (Bussey, Guyton, Smith, etc.). They've done a great job so far developing their players.

I don't think this is a good recruiting staff. I think if we had a good recruiting staff we'd see us winning more recruiting battles. It's not solely or even mainly because we are North Texas and it's hard to recruit here. But like I said, this staff is doing a good job being opportunistic when top prospects are left with dried up offers, evaluating no-offer guys, and developing. Those are this staffs strengths and it's working just fine.

That being said, this class needs to pick it up or else it will more closely resemble the upperclassmen classes of the 1-11 team than the 2017 team. I'm sure we'll snag some guys at the end again, but it would be extremely helpful to win recruiting battles straight up as well with our momentum that we have.

Wonder if it's a coincidence that the highest rated class was after our bowl win. Hope we can do that again after this year and wonder if the signing day being moved will hurt us. This staff seems to do the most work near the deadline with commits and flips.

Ben Gooding · November 6, 2017

12 hours ago, AustinFromUNT said:

“Build it and they will come”

Built Apogee

”Win and they will come”

Now 6-3 (5-1) about to clinch the west division.

”Change the culture”

We’re not where we need to be, but we’re working on it.

We’ve recently lost 2 of our better commits, and picked up a really good one. Why do you think we are struggling with recruiting right now?

The next 2 games will have very good attendance. The ODU game was bound to happen. The ingredients were there to have poor attendance, 1) Just got our pants pulled down on the road 2) Halloween 3) ODU. Opponent is a contributing factor into attendance from the SEC to the SunBelt. There just isn't a way around it.

Since Apogee has been built, announced attendance has spiked and stayed relatively steady. So, "Build it and they will come" has actually sort of happened.

Culture change takes years to do. Takes longer to do when the coaching staff doesn't have perceived "swagger".

This is not a recruiting staff. I have said this before, but @Brett Vito wrote a very interesting article when FW and SL were hired about the style of their coaching attacks. Brett highlighted in that article that the staff we hired is a X and O staff and UTSA got a johnny and joe staff. SL has hit on some guys that have impressed me. And there are a few more that were impressive during spring ball and fall camp that are redshirting. We also have that KU slot WR transfer eligible next season as well, he took skinny post 90 yards in the spring game. We can make up ground by getting lower recruited players at the skill positions. We have to get defensive guys and those are harder to develop and harder to mold. As well as OL. These are the positions we have to win recruiting battles. Or defense will have a very long road ahead.

cdizzle86 · November 6, 2017

I'll add that I think there's a ceiling for recruiting in CUSA. It is expected that we will lose a lot of battles to higher tier G5 teams and/or lower tier P5 teams. Sure we may pull out a win every now and then, but that's just the way the food chain works in college football. Our main goal should be to do more with less. Continue winning and hopefully position ourselves just right when the next round of realignment happens.

Ben Gooding · November 6, 2017

8 minutes ago, cdizzle86 said:

I'll add that I think there's a ceiling for recruiting in CUSA. It is expected that we will lose a lot of battles to higher tier G5 teams and/or lower tier P5 teams. Sure we may pull out a win every now and then, but that's just the way the food chain works in college football. Our main goal should be to do more with less. Continue winning and hopefully position ourselves just right when the next round of realignment happens.

There is a ceiling in recruiting and to me it is kind of tied into mostly conference affiliation and next recent success.

For North Texas recruiting, we are much closer to the floor than we are the ceiling. I think the actual ceiling is 16-20 three stars a class for CUSA recruiting. LaTech, UTSA, FAU, Marshall, SoMiss, etc. have all hit around these numbers with some frequency. The acceptable class should fall into the 10-14 three stars a class. And we usually pull in 4-7 three stars a class. And within these three stars, there are usually 2-5 offers, and that is really what I mean when I say "three stars."

meangreanmick · November 6, 2017

We are already seeing recruiting improve with the more entertaining style of football. Winning is also going to help as the staff move into late fall and next spring. The staff has done great job recruiting what they need to win for where we are, next step is recruiting for where we are going.

Ben Gooding · November 6, 2017

3 minutes ago, meangreanmick said:

We are already seeing recruiting improve with the more entertaining style of football. Winning is also going to help as the staff move into late fall and next spring. The staff has done great job recruiting what they need to win for where we are, next step is recruiting for where we are going.

This is flat out wrong. Recruiting has not improved a single tick. If anything, it has regressed. Now if what you meant was that we are able to recruit more easily due to the style of play, then yes. But that doesn't help defense. We need DL, LB, S (which we are loading up on right now), and DE. If we want to improve as a team, these are the areas where we'll need to win recruiting battles.

UNTLifer · November 6, 2017

1. Let's wait until the class is complete and signed before rating anything.

2. Let's see how these kids pan out in the next 4 to 5 years.

TheReal_jayD · November 6, 2017

36 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

1. Let's wait until the class is complete and signed before rating anything.

2. Let's see how these kids pan out in the next 4 to 5 years.

This!

meangreanmick · November 6, 2017

2 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

This is flat out wrong. Recruiting has not improved a single tick. If anything, it has regressed. Now if what you meant was that we are able to recruit more easily due to the style of play, then yes. But that doesn't help defense. We need DL, LB, S (which we are loading up on right now), and DE. If we want to improve as a team, these are the areas where we'll need to win recruiting battles.

So you are saying recruiting hasn't improved "a single tick" since SL took over, but you concede recruiting is easier due to style of play? That confuses me a bit. I think that we are winning a few more recruiting battles to conference peers than we had in the past. I think our overall recruiting rankings, if you are concerned about that, would then start to trend upward over the next year or 2 as a result. I am not saying we are great in recruiting (I doubt our ratings have improved much or at all) or that we have filled our needs, but I think saying it hasn't improved at all over McCarney is a reach. All that really matters is results on the field, and there are quite a few SL recruits making big contributions on the offensive side of the ball - which is carrying us right now. If they translate that into some defense and higher rated recruits in the future, we are on the right track.

Ben Gooding · November 6, 2017

32 minutes ago, meangreanmick said:

So you are saying recruiting hasn't improved "a single tick" since SL took over, but you concede recruiting is easier due to style of play? That confuses me a bit. I think that we are winning a few more recruiting battles to conference peers than we had in the past. I think our overall recruiting rankings, if you are concerned about that, would then start to trend upward over the next year or 2 as a result. I am not saying we are great in recruiting (I doubt our ratings have improved much or at all) or that we have filled our needs, but I think saying it hasn't improved at all over McCarney is a reach. All that really matters is results on the field, and there are quite a few SL recruits making big contributions on the offensive side of the ball - which is carrying us right now. If they translate that into some defense and higher rated recruits in the future, we are on the right track.

What I am saying is that recruiting metrics show that our recruiting is Dan McCarney level recruiting, almost identical. Therefore, they haven't improved a tick. Actually, Dan McCarney had a higher class or two than any of the two that SL has signed up to this point. I say they are identical to give Seth Littrell the benefit of the doubt for what is to come. But do you see how we're having to give Seth Littrell the benefit of the doubt to edge Dan McCarney in recruiting. That should say something, and it should say It's because we're not doing well. We are currently on pace to match Dan McCarney's worst recruiting class (2011 or 2012). This is the same class that led to 2015. We will never have 2015 results because of our offensive scheme. Which brings me to my next point...

I say it's easier to recruit because in DM system he had to get physical guys with close to prototypical size to play in his offensive and defensive scheme. In SL's scheme, offensively, we can plug 160lb guys in places and roll with them. There are dime a dozen 160lb little receivers in Texas alone thirsting for a Div 1 offer. We can take our pick here, and then plug them in and roll with it. The contributions are on the offensive side of the ball for this reason. It's the scheme, not the players. It's why the NFL is not overflowing with Mike Leach players, or hair gel hands for that matter. People have been saying this about Mike Leach forever. And Hal Mumme before him. Defensively, we will continue to struggle because we can't win recruiting battles. And on this side of the ball it's much more difficult to plug and play. Talent wins the day here, not scheme. That is why Mike Leach struggles as well. That is why Hair Gel Hands may be getting a pink slip at years end.

MeanGreenTexan · November 6, 2017

3 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

What I am saying is that recruiting metrics show that our recruiting is Dan McCarney level recruiting, almost identical. Therefore, they haven't improved a tick. Actually, Dan McCarney had a higher class or two than any of the two that SL has signed up to this point. I say they are identical to give Seth Littrell the benefit of the doubt for what is to come. But do you see how we're having to give Seth Littrell the benefit of the doubt to edge Dan McCarney in recruiting. That should say something, and it should say It's because we're not doing well. We are currently on pace to match Dan McCarney's worst recruiting class (2011 or 2012). This is the same class that led to 2015. We will never have 2015 results because of our offensive scheme. Which brings me to my next point...

I say it's easier to recruit because in DM system he had to get physical guys with close to prototypical size to play in his offensive and defensive scheme. In SL's scheme, offensively, we can plug 160lb guys in places and roll with them. There are dime a dozen 160lb little receivers in Texas alone thirsting for a Div 1 offer. We can take our pick here, and then plug them in and roll with it. The contributions are on the offensive side of the ball for this reason. It's the scheme, not the players. It's why the NFL is not overflowing with Mike Leach players, or hair gel hands for that matter. People have been saying this about Mike Leach forever. And Hal Mumme before him. Defensively, we will continue to struggle because we can't win recruiting battles. And on this side of the ball it's much more difficult to plug and play. Talent wins the day here, not scheme. That is why Mike Leach struggles as well. That is why Hair Gel Hands may be getting a pink slip at years end.

Seems that just about all of Leach's WRs get at least a crack at the NFL, if not turn into pro-bowlers like Crabtree & Welker. Heck, our very own Coach Fliani was drafted out of Tech. This system puts a premium on precise route-running, and NFL scouts like WRs who can run routes well.
QB's yeah, you're absolutely right, it's a much different game... although most of them still got looks.

Monkeypox · November 6, 2017

I'm really tired of people who think you can win one or two seasons or half of a season even and think that's what people mean when they say "win."

One winning season, a CURRENT winning season, in fact, is not an example of "win and they will come."

Right now, SL is 11-11. Yes, that's winning more than we usually do, but it's not enough to overcome the overall perception of our program. I think Memphis is a better example of a team that can now be considered "winning".

I've been disappointed in SL's level of recruiting, but, as Billy pointed out, they've done well in the other aspects to help make up for it.That said, I'll be EXTREMELY disappointed if recruiting doesn't improve after this season, especially given the strides made in our offense, including what's being done by some relatively unheralded recruits. A winning season and HOPEFULLY a bowl win, and Littrell and Co. had better be able to make some strides in this, or, even if they leave UNT on a high note, they might be handicapping us down the road to remain only at our current levels.

outoftown · November 7, 2017

13 hours ago, p_phelps said:

Wonder if it's a coincidence that the highest rated class was after our bowl win. Hope we can do that again after this year and wonder if the signing day being moved will hurt us. This staff seems to do the most work near the deadline with commits and flips.

I don't think the signing period will hurt UNT (unless SL gets hired away that is). No it will make it very clear to a lot of recruits with high flying dreams that they are not first choice in many places when UNT offered and would have taken them. I think UNT will be able to pick up numerous kids in between the signing period and some on dez 22 just before the first window closes.

That said, I agree with many here, that SLs staff is way behind the on-field accomplishments when it comes to recruiting. I think he needs to start putting some resources into recruiting (i.e. hire at least one assistant whose primary qualification is recruiting accumen). I am also really worried that he gts hired away after the 2018 season and recruiting never improved and we essentially start back at square one, because we do not actually have a more talented team than when SL came.

Edited November 7, 2017 by outoftown

BillySee58 · November 7, 2017

21 hours ago, TreeFiddy said:

Littrell's 2 recruiting classes (2016 & 2017) account for 7 starters on offense (Bussey, Lawrence, Mose, Henson, Mayfield, Guyton, and Fine) and 5 on defense (Jenkins, Hall, Wheeler, Ejiya, and Muhammad), so I wouldn't necessarily say that the team is dominated by upper classmen from the 2014 & 2015 classes.

There are also a few players from the 2013/2014/2015 classes that are starting, but that I don't think would qualify as B recruits. I don't remember exactly the criteria for B rating, but Flusche was a walkon, Elex Woodworth 2 star with no other offers, Kelvin Smith 2 stars with no other offiers, Tillman Johnson was a 2 star with 2 other offers, Jordan Murrary 2 star with 2 other offers.

*source 247sports

I did not count special teams/kickers.

2 other offers qualifies as a "B" recruit. You'd be surprised how many signees of ours have fallen on either side of this line in the years I have researched. Also, Woodworth had a UTEP offer.

Tillman Johnson and Murray were "B" guys in 2014 and 2015. Garner was a "B+" guy in 2014, Rod Young was a "B+" in 2015, Jeff Wilson was a "B" in 2014, Syd Moore was a "B+" back in 2013, and some others are contributing like Barr and Chumley.

And yeah, you throw in the jucos Littrell has signed and that fills in the gaps of the upperclassmen. Maybe those classes don't make up he majority of our starters, but signing good, highly-coveted recruits those classes has been integral in the turnaround. That includes the guy who has scored more than a third of the offensive touchdowns in the Littrell era and the anchor of our d-line, among others. But if you swap the 14/15 classes with the 12/13 classes there is no way the turnaround happens this quickly.

Littrell has had success here. He has signed key players in our turnaround. He has not won many head to head recruiting battles, particularly since the calendar turned to 2017. Both with the tail end of the 2017 class and the 2018 class. He has had success scooping guys up late, hitting on evaluations, and developing. I expect that to continue, but winning recruiting battles has not picked up and our success on the field is not an example of the contrary.

TreeFiddy · November 7, 2017

56 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

2 other offers qualifies as a "B" recruit. You'd be surprised how many signees of ours have fallen on either side of this line in the years I have researched. Also, Woodworth had a UTEP offer.

Tillman Johnson and Murray were "B" guys in 2014 and 2015. Garner was a "B+" guy in 2014, Rod Young was a "B+" in 2015, Jeff Wilson was a "B" in 2014, Syd Moore was a "B+" back in 2013, and some others are contributing like Barr and Chumley.

And yeah, you throw in the jucos Littrell has signed and that fills in the gaps of the upperclassmen. Maybe those classes don't make up he majority of our starters, but signing good, highly-coveted recruits those classes has been integral in the turnaround. That includes the guy who has scored more than a third of the offensive touchdowns in the Littrell era and the anchor of our d-line, among others. But if you swap the 14/15 classes with the 12/13 classes there is no way the turnaround happens this quickly.

Littrell has had success here. He has signed key players in our turnaround. He has not won many head to head recruiting battles, particularly since the calendar turned to 2017. Both with the tail end of the 2017 class and the 2018 class. He has had success scooping guys up late, hitting on evaluations, and developing. I expect that to continue, but winning recruiting battles has not picked up and our success on the field is not an example of the contrary.

I don't disagree that the 14/15 classes were Mac's best. Littrell has done a nice job supplementing those guys with a few key recruits and hitting on Fine and Guyton. It is no surprise that improved QB play has had a significant impact in our ability to overcome other deficiencies.

Here's hoping that the recent success leads to more multiple offer players signing with the Mean Green.

TheReal_jayD · November 7, 2017

I hate to ruin any bodies "sky is falling" "staff can't recruit" narrative but there is going to be about 40 to 50 recruits in New Denton this weekend. Also North Texas has a new commit he will announce this week. I figure before this weekend. I'll leave it at that. I'm just saying I would rather be 5-1 in conference USA right now and already clinched the bowl bid and not "dominating Recruiting rating". Than be our friends down south and killing it in recruiting and be on the verge of not making a bowl and season falling apart. And another side note. When non recruiter Seth Littrell beat Recruiter Frank Wilson earliers this season. Seth played several and I mean More guys he signed than little Frank. So they can't be that bad. The sky is not falling. Just be paitent folks. This isn't Todd Dodge and isn't Dan Mccarney

AustinFromUNT · November 7, 2017

I would just like to clarify that I don’t think our recruiting is bad. It’s more of a how come we can get guys to commit and then spontaneously decommit so close together. We’ve had 3 decommits this season. I do like all of the guys who have committed so far though.