UTSA’s path to 11-0 perfection

oldguystudent · October 4, 2017

Reddit did the math. 7.4% chance of pulling it off through the regular season. Drops precipitously from there with Conference Championship and Bowl Game:

		Cumulative
Team	% to win	Odds
Southern Miss	76.70%	76.70%
UNT	51.10%	39.19%
Rice	90.40%	35.43%
UTEP	88.50%	31.36%
FIU	81.00%	25.40%
UAB	86.20%	21.89%
Marshall	65.20%	14.27%
LaTech	52.10%	7.44%

Edited October 4, 2017 by oldguystudent

greenminer · October 4, 2017

Quote

UNT's Path to 11-2 Destruction

To no one’s surprise, Seth Litrell is laser focused on the next opponent. For him, it’s all about UTSA, morning, noon and long night after night.

Like every football, basketball or badminton coach who has ever held a whistle, Litrell steadfastly refuses to look ahead to future foes.

“But you’re entitled to,” he told reporters this week.

Thanks, coach, we will.

In analyzing UNT's remaining schedule, it’s hard to see many losses.

Or any at all.

It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mean Green run the table and finish 11-2.

At 3-2, with a pasting of USM behind them, and on pace to break every offensive record in school history, UNT likely will be favored in every game the rest of the season.

For a program that went 1-11 just two years ago, that’s no small feat.

Going 11-2 is not just a pipe dream. UNT has a favorable schedule the rest of the way and superior talent.

Fixed

TreeFiddy · October 4, 2017

I really like USM +13.5 points against the dirty birds. I think UTSA is getting a little too much credit for their 3-0 start and they have had an extra week to hear how great they are. I think they might even be peeking ahead to the North Texas game. UTSA may win, but I have a hard time seeing them winning by 2 touchdowns.

Triple Double Lock of The Year: USM +13.5

VideoEagle · October 4, 2017

1 hour ago, oldguystudent said:

Reddit did the math. 7.4% chance of pulling it off through the regular season. Drops precipitously from there with Conference Championship and Bowl Game:

Cumulative
Team % to win Odds
Southern Miss 76.70% 76.70%
UNT 51.10% 39.19%
Rice 90.40% 35.43%
UTEP 88.50% 31.36%
FIU 81.00% 25.40%
UAB 86.20% 21.89%
Marshall 65.20% 14.27%
LaTech 52.10% 7.44%

If I'm reading the chart correctly, Reddit thinks NT has the best chance to beat UTSA, at least right now. They are even giving us a 1% better chance than La Tech. I'm not sure who on Reddit did the calculations and on what those were based.

As for the whole undefeated thing, I'd think their chances would be a LOT better had they started the season with a win over Houston. Without Houston, the teams they've played so far simply haven't been that strong. I think the next two weeks are going to show a lot about how strong UTSA actually is.

Aldo · October 4, 2017

1 hour ago, Mean_Green09 said:

Im going to disagree. I think they rely on big plays

6.7 yards per play

Ranked 30th in explosiveness on advanced stats

2nd in the conference in 10 yard plays per game

They're extremely efficient, and they have controlled the clock. With fewer plays run, big plays stand out.

imo, because they're still at three games their stats are a little skewed. Their numbers will even out.

Not saying they're bad, but they're no conference stalwarts.

casual fan · October 4, 2017

5 hours ago, Harry said:

To no one’s surprise, Frank Wilson is laser focused on this week’s opponent. For him, it’s all about Southern Miss, morning, noon and long night after night.

Like every football, basketball or badminton coach who has ever held a whistle, Wilson steadfastly refuses to look ahead to future foes.

“But you’re entitled to,” he told reporters this week.

Thanks, coach, we will.

In analyzing UTSA’s remaining schedule, it’s hard to see many losses.

Or any at all.

It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Roadrunners run the table and finish 11-0.

At 3-0 and one of just 17 undefeated teams remaining in the Football Bowl Subdivision, UTSA likely will be favored in every game the rest of the season.

For a startup program in only its seventh year of existence, that’s no small feat.

Going 11-0 is not just a pipe dream. UTSA has a favorable schedule the rest of the way and superior talent.

Read more: http://www.expressnews.com/sports/columnists/john_whisler/article/UTSA-s-path-to-11-0-perfection-is-no-pipe-dream-12250118.php?t=c9604f141cf515a193&cmpid=twitter-premium

Words empty as the wind are best left unsaid.

How vain, without the merit, is the name.

Quotes from another Homer.

oldguystudent · October 4, 2017

7 minutes ago, VideoEagle said:

If I'm reading the chart correctly, Reddit thinks NT has the best chance to beat UTSA, at least right now. They are even giving us a 1% better chance than La Tech. I'm not sure who on Reddit did the calculations and on what those were based.

As for the whole undefeated thing, I'd think their chances would be a LOT better had they started the season with a win over Houston. Without Houston, the teams they've played so far simply haven't been that strong. I think the next two weeks are going to show a lot about how strong UTSA actually is.

My best guess is that they're using Sagarin rating probabilities, which I've had a hard time nailing down. UTSA is about a 3 point favorite in current ratings.

aztecskin · October 4, 2017

Just a note on all the odds and advanced numbers -- S&P+ (which I like alot) is still 43% preseason rankings [1], FEI includes 39% (might be off a bit) preseason proj -- include a bit of the preseason stuff. That partly explains why NT has shot up the rankings so quickly and went from like 76% losing to UTSA to only 49%. As there is more season data the rankings are adjusting.

Our returning production was not so amazing -- our offense was ranked last in conf, defense lost some LBs -- so that is affecting all the advanced rankings of our team. This is a long way of saying to take those rankings with a tiny bit of salt. You still need to use your eyes and your brain (which some twitter Runner fans refuse to do right now)

[1]: Include returning production, five year trend, and recruiting

NM Green · October 4, 2017

I say we stay On stride on our unexpected march to the West crown. Beat down the orange and blue.

GMG

Mean_Green09 · October 4, 2017

38 minutes ago, Aldo said:

They're extremely efficient, and they have controlled the clock. With fewer plays run, big plays stand out.

imo, because they're still at three games their stats are a little skewed. Their numbers will even out.

Not saying they're bad, but they're no conference stalwarts.

They run about 2 plays less than we do, and while I agree that their numbers will even out I still think they have an explosive offense.

Their ability to hit on big plays from PA, the run game, and Sturm scrambles makes them explosive. Its old school explosive, but still the same.

GMG_Dallas · October 4, 2017

42 minutes ago, VideoEagle said:

If I'm reading the chart correctly, Reddit thinks NT has the best chance to beat UTSA, at least right now. They are even giving us a 1% better chance than La Tech. I'm not sure who on Reddit did the calculations and on what those were based.

Probabilities are from ESPN. If you click on any specific matchups you'll see the win probabilities. ESPN states they are based on ESPN's football power index.

UNTLifer · October 4, 2017

55 minutes ago, Aldo said:

They're extremely efficient, and they have controlled the clock. With fewer plays run, big plays stand out.

imo, because they're still at three games their stats are a little skewed. Their numbers will even out.

Not saying they're bad, but they're no conference stalwarts.

Four Words: Baylor, Southern, Texas State

Aldo · October 4, 2017

34 minutes ago, Mean_Green09 said:

They run about 2 plays less than we do

In about 4 more minutes of game.

I mean we'll be discussing numbers all day. Their numbers came against bad-to-mediocre competition. They hit on big plays. They can pull out wins against bad-to-mediocre teams. USM is better than mediocre and it will be a good test.

I need to find a game to watch. I think UTSA vs Baylor is available so I can see what's up.

dmaxel · October 4, 2017

4 hours ago, UNTFan23 said:

How about the Real Time RPI for UTSA, which currently predicts a North Texas win over the runners.

I can't take that site seriously because they have us losing to Rice.

bstnsportsfan3 · October 4, 2017

If they are 4-0 going into next weeks game do you think we are an underdog at home?

MeanGreenTexan · October 5, 2017

2 hours ago, bstnsportsfan3 said:

If they are 4-0 going into next weeks game do you think we are an underdog at home?

Absolutely.

And that's fine with me.

untjim1995 · October 5, 2017

It will be interesting to see how things go, but it’s not out of the question for them to be 12-0 at the end of this season, winning a CUSA Championship game. What would be interesting is to see if that would even get UTSA anywhere close to being the G5 BCS Bowl recipient. Seeing how USF, SDSU, and UCF have started, it’s hard to see them jumping any of those teams, even if they suffer a loss and UTSA doesn’t, just because of SoS...

UNTFan23 · October 5, 2017

15 hours ago, dmaxel said:

I can't take that site seriously because they have us losing to Rice.

How can anyone take any site seriously that projects wins and losses? They are all just guesses.

RealTimeRPI, using a formula, looks at things like each team's home and away record/performance and from there estimates an outcome. Given we have a horrible road record over the past decade, even a team like Rice has a chance to defeat us if the game is at their place.

Cr1028 · October 8, 2017

On 10/4/2017 at 10:19 AM, Harry said:

In analyzing UTSA’s remaining schedule, it’s hard to see many losses.

Or any at all.

It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Roadrunners run the table and finish 11-0.

At 3-0 and one of just 17 undefeated teams remaining in the Football Bowl Subdivision, UTSA likely will be favored in every game the rest of the season.

For a startup program in only its seventh year of existence, that’s no small feat.

Going 11-0 is not just a pipe dream. UTSA has a favorable schedule the rest of the way and superior talent.

southsideguy · October 8, 2017

Told you there would be speed bump for UTSA going undefeated. It is hard to go 11-0 and it is hard to go 0-11. Always seems to be that one game. UTSA has held our number and we need to play our best to beat them. We have to play 60 minutes of good football. The UTSA qb threw for a lot of yards against SOMETH. Hope our dos are up to the challenge. Every team always has that one team they struggle against and ours is UTSA. I hope we can break the spell this year. We can make fun of UTSA but UTSA is a solid team. I am hoping Wilson can have a career day next Saturday.

I saw on the UTSA they had the woman officiating the game and were not impressed. She is the worst I have seen officiating any football game at any level. Hope she is not up here this week. Can schools turn down certain officials or does the league send them to us?

MeanGreen13 · October 8, 2017

2 hours ago, southsideguy said:

Told you there would be speed bump for UTSA going undefeated. It is hard to go 11-0 and it is hard to go 0-11. Always seems to be that one game. UTSA has held our number and we need to play our best to beat them. We have to play 60 minutes of good football. The UTSA qb threw for a lot of yards against SOMETH. Hope our dos are up to the challenge. Every team always has that one team they struggle against and ours is UTSA. I hope we can break the spell this year. We can make fun of UTSA but UTSA is a solid team. I am hoping Wilson can have a career day next Saturday.

I saw on the UTSA they had the woman officiating the game and were not impressed. She is the worst I have seen officiating any football game at any level. Hope she is not up here this week. Can schools turn down certain officials or does the league send them to us?

I watched the whole game and saw very few misses by any official, let alone female side judge. Also, the misses were generally in UTSA's favor with the several holds block-in-the-back calls that were missed.

southsideguy · October 9, 2017

If it was the same one that called games for last year then i was less then impressed. There are plenty of bad male officials as well. They have safety in number so the men can hide. I did not see the game and i was just going by what they were saying.

Edited October 9, 2017 by southsideguy

oldguystudent · October 9, 2017

10 hours ago, southsideguy said:

If it was the same one that called games for last year then i was less then impressed. There are plenty of bad male officials as well. They have safety in number so to hide. I did not see the game and i was just going by what they were saying.

I was that same ref that was here last year. I Recognized her instantly. Unlike last year, when she seemed hell bent on making everybody aware of her existence on damn near every play, she was almost completely silent this time. I can only imagine that she got some pretty heavy talkings to in the off season. I know that several of us here wrote letters to the conference about her. We couldn't have been alone.