Why Recruiting Matters: By the Numbers

[Ben Gooding]

247Sports has a team talent ranking. It's fairly accurate and in depth. It accumulates the amount of stars via 24/7 rankings and ranks the entire country based on your team talent level. 

UNT has a total of 45 ranked players on our team (2 or 3 stars). Ranking us as the 116th most talented team in the country according to 24/7. 

http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite

 

 

Football Power Index - Gives odds of winning based on accumulated data

ESPN Football Power Index - 2017

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

So let's pair these up and see where we lay vs our Schedule. UNT has 45 total stars and ranked as the 116th most talented team. 

                        24/7 Team Ranking                          FPI Projection 

Lamar -                        UR                                             89.8: UNT

SMU -                           73rd                                          73.6: SMU

Iowa -                           49th                                          91.3%: Iowa

UAB -                           128th                                         77.3%: UNT

So Miss -                     87th                                           67.5%: So Miss

UTSA -                         119th                                         50.0%: Draw 

FAU -                            75th                                           58.2%: FAU 

ODU -                           108th                                         59.8%: UNT

La Tech -                     86th                                           54.5%: La Tech 

UTEP -                         UR                                              85.0%: UNT 

Army -                         133rd                                         68.5%: Army 

Rice -                           100th                                         60.2%: UNT 

5 of the 7 teams we are favored to lose to have recruited better than us over the last 4 or 5 years. 

1 team is favored to beat us that we have out recruited. That team is Army and we can consider that to not only be an outlier, but a justifiable one given their system and what they do with the football. 

We are favored to beat 2 teams that we have not out recruited, ODU and Rice. ODU is going through a transitional year after losing a good bit of their team from a 10-win season  <---Something UNT has never had...A 10-win team. Rice is circling the drain. Now not to lay an excuse down for those 2 programs or to subconsciously build us up, but once teams get into the 100's in recruiting rankings, it's truly splitting hairs. For a program in our conference to really rattle some cages and get into the national discussion we need to get into the 70/80's in this particular ranking. 

To garner relevance we have to do what SMU, La Tech, SoMiss and FAU have done on the recruiting trail. It doesn't mean we're going to be bonafide winners. Prime example of that is FAU. They just don't have quality guys in the right places, though lots of quality guys. Kiffin may or may not be able to fix that the general chemistry of that team. From a program positional standpoint, I would trade us out with the others any day. 

The true outlier to all of this is UTSA. Their 2-deep is loaded with upperclassmen with some of FW guys plugged into key spots such as MLB and LT. They are eerily similar to the 2013 UNT team. The difference between them now and us then, Frank Wilson is back loading talent onto that roster to replace these low rated upperclassmen. 

Point of all of this is if we want to be consistent and watch the team compete and vie for bowl games and conference championships, we must recruit better. It's a necessity, not a luxury. 

 

 

[MGNation92]

But muh system players.

We all know when we beat out A&M Commerce for a guy, we've truly made it.

[Wag Tag]

Thanks for the time on this, I think anybody that follows UNT understands we have been below average for even C- USA! Another option is class transfers which I believe has improved! The IPF should be a big benefit for recruiting and I believe it will. What is a concern, the same thing was said about the new stadium. 

[wardly]

17 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

247Sports has a team talent ranking. It's fairly accurate and in depth. It accumulates the amount of stars via 24/7 rankings and ranks the entire country based on your team talent level. 

UNT has a total of 45 ranked players on our team (2 or 3 stars). Ranking us as the 116th most talented team in the country according to 24/7. 

http://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite

 

 

Football Power Index - Gives odds of winning based on accumulated data

ESPN Football Power Index - 2017

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

So let's pair these up and see where we lay vs our Schedule. UNT has 45 total stars and ranked as the 116th most talented team. 

                        24/7 Team Ranking                          FPI Projection 

Lamar -                        UR                                             89.8: UNT

SMU -                           73rd                                          73.6: SMU

Iowa -                           49th                                          91.3%: Iowa

UAB -                           128th                                         77.3%: UNT

So Miss -                     87th                                           67.5%: So Miss

UTSA -                         119th                                         50.0%: Draw 

FAU -                            75th                                           58.2%: FAU 

ODU -                           108th                                         59.8%: UNT

La Tech -                     86th                                           54.5%: La Tech 

UTEP -                         UR                                              85.0%: UNT 

Army -                         133rd                                         68.5%: Army 

Rice -                           100th                                         60.2%: UNT 

5 of the 7 teams we are favored to lose to have recruited better than us over the last 4 or 5 years. 

1 team is favored to beat us that we have out recruited. That team is Army and we can consider that to not only be an outlier, but a justifiable one given their system and what they do with the football. 

We are favored to beat 2 teams that we have not out recruited, ODU and Rice. ODU is going through a transitional year after losing a good bit of their team from a 10-win season  <---Something UNT has never had...A 10-win team. Rice is circling the drain. Now not to lay an excuse down for those 2 programs or to subconsciously build us up, but once teams get into the 100's in recruiting rankings, it's truly splitting hairs. For a program in our conference to really rattle some cages and get into the national discussion we need to get into the 70/80's in this particular ranking. 

To garner relevance we have to do what SMU, La Tech, SoMiss and FAU have done on the recruiting trail. It doesn't mean we're going to be bonafide winners. Prime example of that is FAU. They just don't have quality guys in the right places, though lots of quality guys. Kiffin may or may not be able to fix that the general chemistry of that team. From a program positional standpoint, I would trade us out with the others any day. 

The true outlier to all of this is UTSA. Their 2-deep is loaded with upperclassmen with some of FW guys plugged into key spots such as MLB and LT. They are eerily similar to the 2013 UNT team. The difference between them now and us then, Frank Wilson is back loading talent onto that roster to replace these low rated upperclassmen. 

Point of all of this is if we want to be consistent and watch the team compete and vie for bowl games and conference championships, we must recruit better. It's a necessity, not a luxury. 

 

 

Well done.