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Even forcing overtime is something of a miracle.

I hear you, and I appreciate that you're reading deeper than surface-level statistics. You raise good points and have valid concerns. To further add to the context of all this, I think it's worth noting that UCF was Sam Houston's second game of the year, which means it was the second game of Cassity implementing his system. Similarly, Texas State was Sam Houston's fifth game of the year, so both UCF and TxSt were within the first half of the season. While we all wish and hope for instant change, it's impossible to have a unit firing on all cylinders with a new scheme in the first half of a new coordinator's first year. When you take that into consideration, I think the important thing to look for is growth/progress/improvement throughout the season. After holding Texas State to 39, they held Western Kentucky to 31, Jacksonville State to 21, and Liberty to 18 as the season went on. WKU and Jax State are #1 and #2 in CUSA playing in the championship game, and Liberty finished the season 8-4 with a win over East Carolina (a team we lost to with an interim coach). Further, Texas State put up 28 on now 10-2 Arizona State (who's likely headed to the CFP) the week before they put up 39 on Sam Houston. An 11-point difference between a CFP team defense and Sam Houston isn't terrible in game 5 of a new coordinator. If you wipe out TxSt's defensive touchdown and consider it 32 points given up by Sam Houston's defense, that's only a 4-point difference between a CFP team defense and Sam Houston's defense. I know this isn't all an apples-to-apples comparison, and I agree that his decline from year 1 to year 2 at ACU is concerning. However, I think there are some arguments to suggest Cassity's defensive unit did pretty well in year one of implementation and showed respectable growth over the course of the season, which makes me skeptically optimistic.

Tied 67-67 at St. Mary's UTSA vs. Saint Mary's (Dec 3, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

It appears that they overlooked UNCG and were focusing on North Texas. This could be a trap game.