Comparing Recruiting Across The Years

BillySee58 · August 6, 2017

As many of you know, I put a lot of emphasis in recruiting on offer lists of our players in our class as a whole to determine how well we do in recruiting each cycle. It both shows, to varying degrees, how well our coaches did recruiting against other FBS schools for the same players, and which players who we bring in were deemed FBS caliber by other coaches. I started tracking it around 2014, and have gone back and done previous classes as well.

I also came up with a letter grade system, inspired by Greg Goedecker, to differentiate between our recruits based on their offer lists. Here is the grading scale again:

"C" recruit has no other FBS offers

"C+" recruit has one other FBS offer

"B" recruit has 2-4 other FBS offers

"B+" recruit has 2-4 other FBS offers but they are quality offers (i.e. P5, Boise State, Houston, etc.)

"A" recruit has 5-9 other FBS offers

"A+" recruit has 10+ FBS offers

Note that these offers are ALL of the offers these recruits accumulate throughout the recruiting process. Not just who is actively recruiting them at the time they commit to us. I look at that to determine who our coaches are truly winning head-to-head recruiting battles against.

Here are the lists year by year to back up the percentages illustrated in the graph below:

Mccarney's first class - 2011

C - 8 (Jimmerson, Ellard, Mcnulty, Laramie Lee, Mason, Stojkovic, Osborn, Shaw)
C+ - 6 (Jamone Greer, Cooper Jones, Whitfield, Polk, Marcus Smith, Micah Thompson)
B - 3 (Akunne, Austin Orr, Alex Lincoln)
B+ - 5 (Brooks, Sampson, Kerry Swarn, Freddie Warner, Andrew Power)
A - 1 (Lemon)
A+ - 0
9 out of 23 B or better (39.1%)

2012 class

C - 14 (Watson, Marshall, Mcdorman, Haboul, Lancaster, Clark, Roberts, Jarvis, Rollins, Lewis, Wallace, Harris, Lajaylin Smith, Devante Davis)
C+ - 5 (Rentfro, Schrapps, DQ Johnson, Dilonga, Tucker)
B - 4 (Horton, Feldt, Busby, Trussell)
B+ -
A - 1 (Xavier Kelly)
A+ -
5 out of 24 B or better (20.8%)

2013 class

C - 6 (Ellis, Minor, Sorge, Walker, Fortenberry, McKinney)
C+ - 6 (Shilleci, Reinhardt, Smiley, Dajon Williams, Loving, Nelson
B - 2 (Quenton Brown, Fred Scott)
B+ - 3 (Manu, James Jones, Moore)
A - 1 (Chad Davis)
A+ -
6 out of 18 B or better (33.3%)

2014

C - 2 (Jalen Montgomery, Trevor Moore)
C+ - 2 (Mcclain, Rutherford)
B - 7 (Tillman Johnson, Josh Greer, Akii Smith, Means, Andrew Jones, Tauaalo, Wilson)
B+ - 1 (Garner)
A - 3 (Adams, Ivery, Davis)
A+ - 3 (Goree, Miles, Chumley)

14 out of 18 "B" or better (77.8%)

2015

C - 3 (Ozougwu, Robinson, Thompson)
C+ - 6 (Dam. Smith, Bendy, Brooks, Munden, Woodworth, Dak. Smith)
B - 9 (Bradley, Preston, Murray, Gray, Howard, Harrison, Wegmann, Grindle, Ochs)
B+ - 1 (Young)
A - 2 (Barr, Combs)
A+ - 2 (McNair, Dillman)

14 out of 23 "B" or better (60.9%)

Littrell's first class - 2016

C - 7 (Tyler Wilson, Khairi Muhammad, Mason Fine, Baulkman, Wheeler, Ejiya, Wyche)
C+ - 1 (Jameel Moore)
B - 6 (Hamilton, Anthony, Hair-Griffin, Darius Turner, Hayes, Jalen Thomas)
B+ - 1 (Nic Smith)
A - 3 (William Johnson, Henson, Jenkins)
A+ - 1 (Rico Bussey)
11 out of 19 B or better (57.8%)

2017 class:

"C" - 7 (Newman, E Johnson, Roberts, Thornton, Novil, Hall, S Mose)

"C+" - 4 (Pahinui, Pearson, Weatherspoon, Fulp)

"B" - 7 (M Mose, Sanders, Davis, Krasniqi, Brammer, Parish, White)

"B+" - 3 (Guyton, C Johnson, Siggers)

"A" - 1 (Darden)

11 out of 22 "B" or higher (50%)

2018 class
"C" - 7 (Leblanc, A Johnson, Carroll, Kason Martin, Brown, Nixon, Redfearn)

"C+" - 2 (Hunt, Vada King)

"B+" - 2 (Bean, Kameron King)

2 out of 11 "B" or higher (18.2%)

Take this how you will. Personally I would like to see us in the 70 percentiles every year of "B" or better. Save some room for guys like Chancellor, Carlos Harris, McClain, Brooks, etc but still fill your class with "B" or better guys who have higher chances to pan out like Zach Orr, Cyril Lemon, Lance Dunbar, Bellazin, Y'Barbo, Jeff Wilson, etc.

Edited August 6, 2017 by BillySee58

TheReal_jayD · August 6, 2017

3 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

As many of you know, I put a lot of emphasis in recruiting on offer lists of our players in our class as a whole to determine how well we do in recruiting each cycle. It both shows, to varying degrees, how well our coaches did recruiting against other FBS schools for the same players, and which players who we bring in were deemed FBS caliber by other coaches. I started tracking it around 2014, and have gone back and done previous classes as well.

I also came up with a letter grade system, inspired by Greg Goedecker, to differentiate between our recruits based on their offer lists. Here is the grading scale again:

"C" recruit has no other FBS offers

"C+" recruit has one other FBS offer

"B" recruit has 2-4 other FBS offers

"B+" recruit has 2-4 other FBS offers but they are quality offers (i.e. P5, Boise State, Houston, etc.)

"A" recruit has 5-9 other FBS offers

"A+" recruit has 10+ FBS offers

Note that these offers are ALL of the offers these recruits accumulate throughout the recruiting process. Not just who is actively recruiting them at the time they commit to us. I look at that to determine who our coaches are truly winning head-to-head recruiting battles against.

Here are the lists year by year to back up the percentages illustrated in the graph below:

Mccarney's first class - 2011

C - 8 (Jimmerson, Ellard, Mcnulty, Laramie Lee, Mason, Stojkovic, Osborn, Shaw)
C+ - 6 (Jamone Greer, Cooper Jones, Whitfield, Polk, Marcus Smith, Micah Thompson)
B - 3 (Akunne, Austin Orr, Alex Lincoln)
B+ - 5 (Brooks, Sampson, Kerry Swarn, Freddie Warner, Andrew Power)
A - 1 (Lemon)
A+ - 0
9 out of 23 B or better (39.1%)

2012 class

C - 14 (Watson, Marshall, Mcdorman, Haboul, Lancaster, Clark, Roberts, Jarvis, Rollins, Lewis, Wallace, Harris, Lajaylin Smith, Devante Davis)
C+ - 5 (Rentfro, Schrapps, DQ Johnson, Dilonga, Tucker)
B - 4 (Horton, Feldt, Busby, Trussell)
B+ -
A - 1 (Xavier Kelly)
A+ -
5 out of 24 B or better (20.8%)

2013 class

C - 6 (Ellis, Minor, Sorge, Walker, Fortenberry, McKinney)
C+ - 6 (Shilleci, Reinhardt, Smiley, Dajon Williams, Loving, Nelson
B - 2 (Quenton Brown, Fred Scott)
B+ - 3 (Manu, James Jones, Moore)
A - 1 (Chad Davis)
A+ -
6 out of 18 B or better (33.3%)

2014

C - 2 (Jalen Montgomery, Trevor Moore)
C+ - 2 (Mcclain, Rutherford)
B - 7 (Tillman Johnson, Josh Greer, Akii Smith, Means, Andrew Jones, Tauaalo, Wilson)
B+ - 1 (Garner)
A - 3 (Adams, Ivery, Davis)
A+ - 3 (Goree, Miles, Chumley)

14 out of 18 "B" or better (77.8%)

2015

C - 3 (Ozougwu, Robinson, Thompson)
C+ - 6 (Dam. Smith, Bendy, Brooks, Munden, Woodworth, Dak. Smith)
B - 9 (Bradley, Preston, Murray, Gray, Howard, Harrison, Wegmann, Grindle, Ochs)
B+ - 1 (Young)
A - 2 (Barr, Combs)
A+ - 2 (McNair, Dillman)

14 out of 23 "B" or better (60.9%)

Littrell's first class - 2016

C - 7 (Tyler Wilson, Khairi Muhammad, Mason Fine, Baulkman, Wheeler, Ejiya, Wyche)
C+ - 1 (Jameel Moore)
B - 6 (Hamilton, Anthony, Hair-Griffin, Darius Turner, Hayes, Jalen Thomas)
B+ - 1 (Nic Smith)
A - 3 (William Johnson, Henson, Jenkins)
A+ - 1 (Rico Bussey)
11 out of 19 B or better (57.8%)

2017 class:

"C" - 7 (Newman, E Johnson, Roberts, Thornton, Novil, Hall, S Mose)

"C+" - 4 (Pahinui, Pearson, Weatherspoon, Fulp)

"B" - 7 (M Mose, Sanders, Davis, Krasniqi, Brammer, Parish, White)

"B+" - 3 (Guyton, C Johnson, Siggers)

"A" - 1 (Darden)

11 out of 22 "B" or higher (50%)

2018 class
"C" - 7 (Leblanc, A Johnson, Carroll, Kason Martin, Brown, Nixon, Redfearn)

"C+" - 2 (Hunt, Vada King)

"B+" - 2 (Bean, Kameron King)

2 out of 11 "B" or higher (18.2%)

Take this how you will. Personally I would like to see us in the 70 percentiles every year of "B" or better. Save some room for guys like Chancellor, Carlos Harris, McClain, Brooks, etc but still fill your class with "B" or better guys who have higher chances to pan out like Zach Orr, Cyril Lemon, Lance Dunbar, Bellazin, Y'Barbo, Jeff Wilson, etc.

Great work @BillySee58

MGNation92 · August 6, 2017

Trending downward is not surprising. Littrells first class that he had a month to finish has been better than the rest. Why is this?

Ben Gooding · August 6, 2017

1 hour ago, MGNation92 said:

Trending downward is not surprising. Littrells first class that he had a month to finish has been better than the rest. Why is this?

$64k question.

BillySee58 · August 7, 2017

1 hour ago, MGNation92 said:

Trending downward is not surprising. Littrells first class that he had a month to finish has been better than the rest. Why is this?

You can also see that Mccarney's first class was better than his next two. Significantly better than his first "full" class both in terms of offer lists and how the players panned out.

I've said before that I don't subscribe to the idea that coaches get a pass on whatever they get in their first signing class on short notice. For the simple fact that coaches should get an inherent bump just for being new and being able to offer early playing time since incumbent players were not signed by them.

3 hours ago, TheReal_jayD said:

Great work @BillySee58

Thank you, sir

GMG24 · August 7, 2017

8 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

As many of you know, I put a lot of emphasis in recruiting on offer lists of our players in our class as a whole to determine how well we do in recruiting each cycle. It both shows, to varying degrees, how well our coaches did recruiting against other FBS schools for the same players, and which players who we bring in were deemed FBS caliber by other coaches. I started tracking it around 2014, and have gone back and done previous classes as well.

I also came up with a letter grade system, inspired by Greg Goedecker, to differentiate between our recruits based on their offer lists. Here is the grading scale again:

"C" recruit has no other FBS offers

"C+" recruit has one other FBS offer

"B" recruit has 2-4 other FBS offers

"B+" recruit has 2-4 other FBS offers but they are quality offers (i.e. P5, Boise State, Houston, etc.)

"A" recruit has 5-9 other FBS offers

"A+" recruit has 10+ FBS offers

Note that these offers are ALL of the offers these recruits accumulate throughout the recruiting process. Not just who is actively recruiting them at the time they commit to us. I look at that to determine who our coaches are truly winning head-to-head recruiting battles against.

Here are the lists year by year to back up the percentages illustrated in the graph below:

Mccarney's first class - 2011

C - 8 (Jimmerson, Ellard, Mcnulty, Laramie Lee, Mason, Stojkovic, Osborn, Shaw)
C+ - 6 (Jamone Greer, Cooper Jones, Whitfield, Polk, Marcus Smith, Micah Thompson)
B - 3 (Akunne, Austin Orr, Alex Lincoln)
B+ - 5 (Brooks, Sampson, Kerry Swarn, Freddie Warner, Andrew Power)
A - 1 (Lemon)
A+ - 0
9 out of 23 B or better (39.1%)

2012 class

C - 14 (Watson, Marshall, Mcdorman, Haboul, Lancaster, Clark, Roberts, Jarvis, Rollins, Lewis, Wallace, Harris, Lajaylin Smith, Devante Davis)
C+ - 5 (Rentfro, Schrapps, DQ Johnson, Dilonga, Tucker)
B - 4 (Horton, Feldt, Busby, Trussell)
B+ -
A - 1 (Xavier Kelly)
A+ -
5 out of 24 B or better (20.8%)

2013 class

C - 6 (Ellis, Minor, Sorge, Walker, Fortenberry, McKinney)
C+ - 6 (Shilleci, Reinhardt, Smiley, Dajon Williams, Loving, Nelson
B - 2 (Quenton Brown, Fred Scott)
B+ - 3 (Manu, James Jones, Moore)
A - 1 (Chad Davis)
A+ -
6 out of 18 B or better (33.3%)

2014

C - 2 (Jalen Montgomery, Trevor Moore)
C+ - 2 (Mcclain, Rutherford)
B - 7 (Tillman Johnson, Josh Greer, Akii Smith, Means, Andrew Jones, Tauaalo, Wilson)
B+ - 1 (Garner)
A - 3 (Adams, Ivery, Davis)
A+ - 3 (Goree, Miles, Chumley)

14 out of 18 "B" or better (77.8%)

2015

C - 3 (Ozougwu, Robinson, Thompson)
C+ - 6 (Dam. Smith, Bendy, Brooks, Munden, Woodworth, Dak. Smith)
B - 9 (Bradley, Preston, Murray, Gray, Howard, Harrison, Wegmann, Grindle, Ochs)
B+ - 1 (Young)
A - 2 (Barr, Combs)
A+ - 2 (McNair, Dillman)

14 out of 23 "B" or better (60.9%)

Littrell's first class - 2016

C - 7 (Tyler Wilson, Khairi Muhammad, Mason Fine, Baulkman, Wheeler, Ejiya, Wyche)
C+ - 1 (Jameel Moore)
B - 6 (Hamilton, Anthony, Hair-Griffin, Darius Turner, Hayes, Jalen Thomas)
B+ - 1 (Nic Smith)
A - 3 (William Johnson, Henson, Jenkins)
A+ - 1 (Rico Bussey)
11 out of 19 B or better (57.8%)

2017 class:

"C" - 7 (Newman, E Johnson, Roberts, Thornton, Novil, Hall, S Mose)

"C+" - 4 (Pahinui, Pearson, Weatherspoon, Fulp)

"B" - 7 (M Mose, Sanders, Davis, Krasniqi, Brammer, Parish, White)

"B+" - 3 (Guyton, C Johnson, Siggers)

"A" - 1 (Darden)

11 out of 22 "B" or higher (50%)

2018 class
"C" - 7 (Leblanc, A Johnson, Carroll, Kason Martin, Brown, Nixon, Redfearn)

"C+" - 2 (Hunt, Vada King)

"B+" - 2 (Bean, Kameron King)

2 out of 11 "B" or higher (18.2%)

Take this how you will. Personally I would like to see us in the 70 percentiles every year of "B" or better. Save some room for guys like Chancellor, Carlos Harris, McClain, Brooks, etc but still fill your class with "B" or better guys who have higher chances to pan out like Zach Orr, Cyril Lemon, Lance Dunbar, Bellazin, Y'Barbo, Jeff Wilson, etc.

Just curious does this include current offers or offers that the kid held at one time or another? Guys like White, Darden, Siggers come to mind. Thanks for the research.

BillySee58 · August 7, 2017

Just now, GMG24 said:

Just curious does this include current offers or offers that the kid held at one time or another? Guys like White, Darden, Siggers come to mind. Thanks for the research.

Note that these offers are ALL of the offers these recruits accumulate throughout the recruiting process. Not just who is actively recruiting them at the time they commit to us. I look at that to determine who our coaches are truly winning head-to-head recruiting battles against.

GMG24 · August 7, 2017

Just now, BillySee58 said:

Note that these offers are ALL of the offers these recruits accumulate throughout the recruiting process. Not just who is actively recruiting them at the time they commit to us. I look at that to determine who our coaches are truly winning head-to-head recruiting battles against.

Gotcha, thanks! You do way more work than I'd ever like to. Any chance of us getting a rivals or 247 site?? Maybe we could have @Harry and co fund it and link it up with GMG??

TheReal_jayD · August 7, 2017

1 hour ago, GMG24 said:

Gotcha, thanks! You do way more work than I'd ever like to. Any chance of us getting a rivals or 247 site?? Maybe we could have @Harry and co fund it and link it up with GMG??

In the works ! Paitence!!!

GMG24 · August 7, 2017

11 minutes ago, TheReal_jayD said:

In the works ! Paitence!!!

How long you known me!? Holler if you need help.

97and03 · August 7, 2017

It would be an interesting study to take out the players that never made it to campus.

GMG_Dallas · August 7, 2017

2 hours ago, 97and03 said:

It would be an interesting study to take out the players that never made it to campus.

This is the biggest problem to me. The guys we get with a lot of offers are usually coming to us because they lost their spot everywhere else for some reason. How many of our "higher rated" A- or better guys done nothing or left before their time was up? I would guess near 40% and that's not good. From 2014 to 2016 : Willy Ivery, Fonzale Davis, Jalen Adams (?), Chumley (looking like he might get his shot), McNair, Dillman (same as Chumley), William Johnson.

Edit: I understand this is part of recruiting but this where winning real head to head battles important and not just getting guys taking their last available FBS offer. Have to get guys who really want to be here and that starts with good recruiting. I trust our current staff though. Their good offer guys look like legit signings over Mac so far.

Edited August 7, 2017 by GMG_Dallas

southsideguy · August 7, 2017

is lemon in the NFL?

Withers940 · August 7, 2017

1 hour ago, southsideguy said:

is lemon in the NFL?

Not anymore. He is coaching High School ball now at Marble Falls

Edited August 7, 2017 by Withers940

UNTLifer · August 7, 2017

That is great research, but looking through those classes, I would argue that many of the top rated players did not end up being our top performers. For example, our 2015 class has four "A" or better rated players in McNair, Dillman, Combs and Barr. McNair is gone, Dillman has been injured the entire time and moved from the position that earned him that rating, Combs was serviceable, but was he an A? and Barr has also been serviceable but has not locked down a position on the starting OL. Interestingly, many of our top performers, Lee, McClain, McKinney, etc... have been lower rated. James Jones was probably the one who lived up to his rating the best.

Recruiting is a crap shoot and the real results become evident a couple years down the road. I trust this staff more than those in the past to find good talent. They were in on DeShaun White when he was a 2 star and we were his only offer. Since then, he has blown up to a 4 star and is now committed to A$M after having almost every big school after him. Only time will tell.

Ben Gooding · August 7, 2017

22 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

That is great research, but looking through those classes, I would argue that many of the top rated players did not end up being our top performers. For example, our 2015 class has four "A" or better rated players in McNair, Dillman, Combs and Barr. McNair is gone, Dillman has been injured the entire time and moved from the position that earned him that rating, Combs was serviceable, but was he an A? and Barr has also been serviceable but has not locked down a position on the starting OL. Interestingly, many of our top performers, Lee, McClain, McKinney, etc... have been lower rated. James Jones was probably the one who lived up to his rating the best.

Recruiting is a crap shoot and the real results become evident a couple years down the road. I trust this staff more than those in the past to find good talent. They were in on DeShaun White when he was a 2 star and we were his only offer. Since then, he has blown up to a 4 star and is now committed to A$M after having almost every big school after him. Only time will tell.

They are/were starters.

And none of these were destined for FCS or d2 before we offered. All had options.

Recruiting, if done with success, is not a crap shoot. Recruiting, done the way UNT is currently doing it, is textbook crap shoot.

BTG_Fan1 · August 7, 2017

9 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

This is the biggest problem to me. The guys we get with a lot of offers are usually coming to us because they lost their spot everywhere else for some reason. How many of our "higher rated" A- or better guys done nothing or left before their time was up? I would guess near 40% and that's not good. From 2014 to 2016 : Willy Ivery, Fonzale Davis, Jalen Adams (?), Chumley (looking like he might get his shot), McNair, Dillman (same as Chumley), William Johnson.

Edit: I understand this is part of recruiting but this where winning real head to head battles important and not just getting guys taking their last available FBS offer. Have to get guys who really want to be here and that starts with good recruiting. I trust our current staff though. Their good offer guys look like legit signings over Mac so far.

We have to take into account as well, they lost multiple guys who never made it campus in that first class.. (Haynes, Johnson, The DB Turner, Hoston).

With the depth of the roster still not being at 85, I'm guessing that SL and the staff took "safer" bets on who would make it to campus.

UNTLifer · August 7, 2017

8 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

They are/were starters.

And none of these were destined for FCS or d2 before we offered. All had options.

Recruiting, if done with success, is not a crap shoot. Recruiting, done the way UNT is currently doing it, is textbook crap shoot.

Per 247:

We were Lee's only offer, McKinney had offers from UCA and Grambling State and McClain had one offer to Texas State. Barr and Combs did have other offers, but you comment is not entirely true.

BillySee58 · August 8, 2017

For the people dissecting individual recruits out of these classes and pointing to which lowly heralded recruits did well and which highly recruited players didn't produce much, look at the 2012 and 2013 classes.

When you sign classes like that back to back, and then have them as the upperclassmen on your roster, that's how you go 1-11.

UNTLifer · August 8, 2017

Yep. Those two classes were terrible as a whole. Maybe 8 players that produced out of those two classes

Edited August 8, 2017 by UNTLifer

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · August 8, 2017

On 8/7/2017 at 4:10 AM, 97and03 said:

It would be an interesting study to take out the players that never made it to campus.

Bingo!

BillySee58 · August 8, 2017

2 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Bingo!

Take out:

2011 - Jamone Greer

2013 - Justin Manu

2014 - Fonzale Davis

2015 - Xavier Grindle, Brian Ochs

2016 - William Johnson, Cody Hayes

That's it. Doesn't change the percentages much, and the classes remain in the same order

BTG_Fan1 · August 8, 2017

6 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

Take out:

2011 - Jamone Greer

2013 - Justin Manu

2014 - Fonzale Davis

2015 - Xavier Grindle, Brian Ochs

2016 - William Johnson, Cody Hayes

That's it. Doesn't change the percentages much, and the classes remain in the same order

Didn't Turner from the 2016 make it to campus, but never played a down? or did he never make it to campus?