DRC: What do the national rankings of all 120 FBS teams say about UNT?

Brett Vito · June 15, 2017

DRC:

http://beta.dentonrc.com/sports/mean-green/2017/06/15/preseason-football-magazines-say-unt

KRAM1 · June 15, 2017

Four wins would not be good. That is all.....

Tyler Maryak · June 15, 2017

5 minutes ago, KRAM1 said:

Four wins would not be good. That is all.....

#HotTake

untjim1995 · June 15, 2017

Last year, we were ranked anywhere from 126-128 in most early polls, out of 128 teams. We were predicted to win 1-2 games at the most.

we won 5. They don't know about our level of play..

MGNation92 · June 15, 2017

we only won 5 games and had a pretty poorly ranked recruiting class. I'm not surprised to be honest.

Hopefully we can prove them wrong

MeanGreenTexan · June 15, 2017

2 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

we only won 5 games and had a pretty poorly ranked recruiting class. I'm not surprised to be honest.

Hopefully we can prove them wrong

Not to mention losing 5 of the last 6 games last season. Not the best way to end the year.

meanrob · June 15, 2017

35 minutes ago, KRAM1 said:

Four wins would not be good. That is all.....

I'm not concerned about the win total this year. My guess would be four wins unless a lot of players step up, including the quarterback. There still isn't quality at every position much less depth. If we have four wins and a few close losses followed up by a very good recruiting class, I'll take it. We've had below average recruiting classes for about five years now and how we expect that to turn into success is a mystery to me. Then again, maybe Littrell is more of a miracle worker than I think he is.

MeanGreenTexan · June 15, 2017

14 minutes ago, meanrob said:

I'm not concerned about the win total this year. My guess would be four wins unless a lot of players step up, including the quarterback. There still isn't quality at every position much less depth. If we have four wins and a few close losses followed up by a very good recruiting class, I'll take it. We've had below average recruiting classes for about five years now and how we expect that to turn into success is a mystery to me. Then again, maybe Littrell is more of a miracle worker than I think he is.

If UNT goes from 5 wins in 2016 to 4 wins in 2017, don't expect "a very good recruiting class". Why would you think this might happen? That makes absolutely no sense at all. You get better recruits by showing you can win football games.
Winning only 4 games while getting paid $1million will cause me to seriously question Littrell as the HC.
His offenses have shown huge upward trends in year 2 at all 3 of his stops as OC. I expect the same here. We'd better win 6 games or more in 2017. Smatresk/Baker have thrown a quarter-million reasons for this expectation at him. Time to deliver. This kind of expectation is shocking (even for me, because I've never really expected much from UNT football) but it's time to step up.

meanrob · June 15, 2017

On another note, eventually we have to do this the right way. I don't think we can cut corners to success. The last two coaches had huge problems that were clear for everyone to see and the previous AD just let it slide.

Dodge could recruit but his bringing along of defensive high school assistants doomed him to fail.

Mac may have been a better X's and O's guy but didn't put in effort to recruit or require his staff to. Not to mention his failure to address the quarterback position.

This has to be done the right way and if that means being more patient with Littrell and his staff, then it has to be done. Historically, most G5 turnarounds take time. People can point to the five wins last year or the bowl appearance but it my view we're not ANYWHERE close to being a consistent winner. We had two players on the All CUSA team last year and one was a punter.

I'm not trying to be negative Nancy, I just think the expectations on the field this year should be tampered a little bit. Actually, a lot a bit. :)

7 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

If UNT goes from 5 wins in 2016 to 4 wins in 2017, don't expect "a very good recruiting class". Why would you think this might happen? That makes absolutely no sense at all. You get better recruits by showing you can win football games.
Winning only 4 games while getting paid $1million will cause me to seriously question Littrell as the HC.
His offenses have shown huge upward trends in year 2 at all 3 of his stops as OC. I expect the same here. We'd better win 6 games or more in 2017. Smatresk/Baker have thrown a quarter-million reasons for this expectation at him. Time to deliver. This kind of expectation is shocking (even for me, because I've never really expected much from UNT football) but it's time to step up.

PJ Fleck had the highest rated recruiting class in the MAC after going 1-11. Wilson at UTSA had a great class after a 1-11 year. If programs had to wait until they started winning to get better recruits, they'd never start winning.

And Littrell will be a better coach and his players will play better because he got a raise? The quarterback position gets better because of how much the coach makes? Like someone posted, we lost 5 out of our last 6 games. I guess people can expect all they want, when I look at this roster and how it finished last year, I don't see a huge improvement. Regardless of what the coach makes.

Edited June 15, 2017 by meanrob

Caw Caw · June 15, 2017

11 minutes ago, meanrob said:

On another note, eventually we have to do this the right way. I don't think we can cut corners to success. The last two coaches had huge problems that were clear for everyone to see and the previous AD just let it slide.

Dodge could recruit but his bringing along of defensive high school assistants doomed him to fail.

Mac may have been a better X's and O's guy but didn't put in effort to recruit or require his staff to. Not to mention his failure to address the quarterback position.

This has to be done the right way and if that means being more patient with Littrell and his staff, then it has to be done. Historically, most G5 turnarounds take time. People can point to the five wins last year or the bowl appearance but it my view we're not ANYWHERE close to being a consistent winner. We had two players on the All CUSA team last year and one was a punter.

I'm not trying to be negative Nancy, I just think the expectations on the field this year should be tampered a little bit. Actually, a lot a bit. :)

I'm in this camp for the most part. I think at the G5 level it's pretty unfair to evaluate much of anything too seriously without 3 years. By that point a coach has almost all kids he's recruited and his system has been implemented. I know we want a fast food fix here, and overachieving is always great. We have a winnable slate of games, we could hit 6 games, but we're favored in one of our games I think. That's not a reflection on Litrell, yet. I'm optimistic, but want to stay realistic. Handing him more money says they have faith that he'll turn it around, not that he can magically speed it up.

MeanGreenTexan · June 15, 2017

11 minutes ago, meanrob said:

...

PJ Fleck had the highest rated recruiting class in the MAC after going 1-11. Wilson at UTSA had a great class after a 1-11 year. If programs had to wait until they started winning to get better recruits, they'd never start winning.

And Littrell will be a better coach and his players will play better because he got a raise? The quarterback position gets better because of how much the coach makes? Like someone posted, we lost 5 out of our last 6 games. I guess people can expect all they want, when I look at this roster and how it finished last year, I don't see a huge improvement. Regardless of what the coach makes.

PJ Fleck sure did. Seth Littrell did not. Early returns showing Littrell not as good of a recruiter as PJ Fleck. Can it change? Sure.

UTSA did not have a 1-11 year in 2015 (much to the chagrin of many here). Wilson won 6 games last year. Do we expect him to step back to 5 wins and continue improving his recruiting? Probably not.

The amount of money the coach makes does not equate to players magically getting better. But spending $1million/yr on a coach when we're 2 years away from paying McCarney $600k (signed after a 9-4 season), should put more expectations on Littrell. And the expectations should be that Littrell's system/coaching ability can improve the team over a 5-win season last year... not step backwards. He'll need to do that, despite his questionable recruiting results.

meanrob · June 15, 2017

6 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

PJ Fleck sure did. Seth Littrell did not. Early returns showing Littrell not as good of a recruiter as PJ Fleck. Can it change? Sure.

UTSA did not have a 1-11 year in 2015 (much to the chagrin of many here). Wilson won 6 games last year. Do we expect him to step back to 5 wins and continue improving his recruiting? Probably not.

The amount of money the coach makes does not equate to players magically getting better. But spending $1million/yr on a coach when we're 2 years away from paying McCarney $600k (signed after a 9-4 season), should put more expectations on Littrell. And the expectations should be that Littrell's system/coaching ability can improve the team over a 5-win season last year... not step backwards. He'll need to do that, despite his questionable recruiting results.

Why does he need to do that? Because that's what the fans are hoping for? He'll get fired if he doesn't? The hoards of media covering UNT will demand more? Nothing will happen, we'll just have a pissed off message board. The trajectory doesn't always go up, by that line of thinking Mac should've had a better year after getting that raise but instead we nosedived the next year.

Did anybody think this thing would turnaround in one year when Littrell got hired? I think expecting SL to get better as a coach and recruiter is reasonable but in my opinion his getting an offseason raise doesn't make this roster any better. Especially at the QB position. And for that reason, I'm trying to be a little more patient. If other people don't want to follow that line of thinking, so be it. I'd rather see someone show me how this team will be better because of on-field reasons rather than just expectations.

MeanGreenTexan · June 15, 2017

5 minutes ago, meanrob said:

Why does he need to do that? Because that's what the fans are hoping for? He'll get fired if he doesn't? The hoards of media covering UNT will demand more? Nothing will happen, we'll just have a pissed off message board. The trajectory doesn't always go up, by that line of thinking Mac should've had a better year after getting that raise but instead we nosedived the next year.

Did anybody think this thing would turnaround in one year when Littrell got hired? I think expecting SL to get better as a coach and recruiter is reasonable but in my opinion his getting an offseason raise doesn't make this roster any better. Especially at the QB position. And for that reason, I'm trying to be a little more patient. If other people don't want to follow that line of thinking, so be it. I'd rather see someone show me how this team will be better because of on-field reasons rather than just expectations.

Never mentioned him getting fired. And Mac could have/should have sustained 8-10 win seasons, but decided to not really recruit as hard.

I've already mentioned why I think the team will be better offensively: Littrell's track record everywhere else he's been (AZ, IN, NC) in year 2 of his system. Last year, the QB was a true freshman. Fine will be better with a year under his belt. He now has a blue-chip receiving target (Guyton), and returns his 3 best WRs from last year (Smiley, Bussey, Wilson)... not to mention Wilson, the workhorse Senior RB.

And I honestly expect the defense to do better with Reffett running his own show, rather than having to share DC duties with Ekeler. Bryce English playing as-advertised will do wonders for this defense.

The on-field reasons are there too. Just have to execute.

meanrob · June 15, 2017

13 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Never mentioned him getting fired. And Mac could have/should have sustained 8-10 win seasons, but decided to not really recruit as hard.

I've already mentioned why I think the team will be better offensively: Littrell's track record everywhere else he's been (AZ, IN, NC) in year 2 of his system. Last year, the QB was a true freshman. Fine will be better with a year under his belt. He now has a blue-chip receiving target (Guyton), and returns his 3 best WRs from last year (Smiley, Bussey, Wilson)... not to mention Wilson, the workhorse Senior RB.

And I honestly expect the defense to do better with Reffett running his own show, rather than having to share DC duties with Ekeler. Bryce English playing as-advertised will do wonders for this defense.

The on-field reasons are there too. Just have to execute.

Those are much better reasons than the coach getting a pay raise.

I have serious doubts about Fine though.

Wag Tag · June 15, 2017

Can doing better than expected last year be a curse?

MeanGreenTexan · June 15, 2017

1 minute ago, meanrob said:

Those are much better reasons than the coach getting a pay raise.

I have serious doubts about Fine though.

The coach's pay raise is what should raise the fan base's expectations of him... which translates to wins.

2 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

Can doing better than expected last year be a curse?

Looking at this thread, it appears most people expected anywhere from 3-9 to 6-6, with 4 or 5 wins being the most common guesses. I would say expectations were exceeded last season, but not by much as many want to stretch it.

greenminer · June 15, 2017

Did Fine play the same system in HS, or a different one?

I just bring it up, because I think that plays into the 1st-to-2nd year learning curve that gets brought up every now and then.

If a kid has already spent 4 years in a similar system (HS), I don't think the learning curve in college is nearly as big a deal as a kid that played, say, his first year in the different system in college.

Not sure what applies to Fine. Hoping for the best.

Caw Caw · June 15, 2017

9 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Did Fine play the same system in HS, or a different one?

I just bring it up, because I think that plays into the 1st-to-2nd year learning curve that gets brought up every now and then.

If a kid has already spent 4 years in a similar system (HS), I don't think the learning curve in college is nearly as big a deal as a kid that played, say, his first year in the different system in college.

Not sure what applies to Fine. Hoping for the best.

I don't know the actual system, but his stats were seriously gaudy. He was namedone of the best players in oklahoma twice based on those stats. It had to be some sort of spread/air raid variation to accomplish what he did statistically in high school.

GMG24 · June 15, 2017

54 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Did Fine play the same system in HS, or a different one?

I just bring it up, because I think that plays into the 1st-to-2nd year learning curve that gets brought up every now and then.

If a kid has already spent 4 years in a similar system (HS), I don't think the learning curve in college is nearly as big a deal as a kid that played, say, his first year in the different system in college.

Not sure what applies to Fine. Hoping for the best.

Same ish system. We run the ball more than most Air Raid teams but going from 2a oklahoma HS ball to D1 is a steep jump for even a redshirt freshman to make let alone a true freshman.

wardly · June 16, 2017

What it really shows is just how crappy C.U.S.A. is, and on a par with S.B.C.

akriesman · June 16, 2017

19 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Not to mention losing 5 of the last 6 games last season. Not the best way to end the year.

Very true. On the other hand, all they needed was to make 1 play at the end (HOD vs Army) and they go out on a winning note. I really thought they had that game after coming back.

If NT wins that last Army game, I wonder how much higher they would be projected ? A single play probably cost them about 15 to 20 spots, not that it really matters anyway.

MeanGreenTexan · June 16, 2017

9 minutes ago, akriesman said:

Very true. On the other hand, all they needed was to make 1 play at the end (HOD vs Army) and they go out on a winning note. I really thought they had that game after coming back.

If NT wins that last Army game, I wonder how much higher they would be projected ? A single play probably cost them about 15 to 20 spots, not that it really matters anyway.

I think you're absolutely right. Just look where Army landed on this list (30 spots higher) than UNT.

oldguystudent · June 16, 2017

At our end of the spectrum on the college football food chain, nobody is going to pay more than 5 minutes attention. They'll just lump us in to the bottom 10-20 and move on to their bread and butter Alabamas of the world.