DRC: UNT's post-spring depth chart with thoughts

[Brett Vito]

DRC: Fine on top as expected, offensive line lacking experience beyond starters

http://www.dentonrc.com/sports/mean-green/2017/05/22/unt-post-spring-two-deep-fine-1-qb-expected-offensive-line-looks-young?_ga=2.225551322.1543887346.1495497333-1664875956.1444249795

[Ben Gooding]

We need a bigger RB in this group. That's a concern. LB has minimal depth. 

Rotation along the DL looks to be strong. I like the WR corp. Depth in the secondary. OL looks very interchangeable, which will be a good thing. We'll need to plug and play, much like last year, until a good rotation is established along the OL. QB is still concerning to me. Overall, I like what is there. 

[MGNation92]

I'm gonna get downvoted to oblivion for this but here's my skip bayless hot take of  the season:

Even if he somehow stays healthy for the entire season, Mason Fine won't pass for 2k yards or 20 tds and our defense will have to play at 2013 levels to get us to 6-6.

Prove me wrong

[UNT86]

Best thing about this group is that I can't look at any starter and say "That guy cannot play".

I have not always been able to say that going into the season.  It is the difference in choosing for a starter and looking for a starter.

I feel good about this team and especially the experience gained by our coaching staff.

[Ben Gooding]

1 hour ago, MGNation92 said:

I'm gonna get downvoted to oblivion for this but here's my skip bayless hot take of  the season:

Even if he somehow stays healthy for the entire season, Mason Fine won't pass for 2k yards or 20 tds and our defense will have to play at 2013 levels to get us to 6-6.

Prove me wrong

There is no reason to disagree with you. I hope he proves the naysayers wrong. There are plenty of them. 

[MGNation92]

1 minute ago, Ben Gooding said:

There is no reason to disagree with you. I hope he proves the naysayers wrong. There are plenty of them. 

Yeah I'm just very skeptical about the offense as a whole. I love our WR/RB groups, but Fine scares me, especially after seemingly no improvement from the limited amount I saw him.

I just think 2k yards and 20tds should pretty much be the benchmark for an average Air Raid QB, and if the offense doesn't improve drastically I just don't see it happening. 

[Ben Gooding]

12 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

Yeah I'm just very skeptical about the offense as a whole. I love our WR/RB groups, but Fine scares me, especially after seemingly no improvement from the limited amount I saw him.

I just think 2k yards and 20tds should pretty much be the benchmark for an average Air Raid QB, and if the offense doesn't improve drastically I just don't see it happening. 

Since we will have a rather inexperienced OL with a lot of moving parts, we will need a QB that can move the chains to get our running lanes going. We can't be a run first team, because with our lack of par QB play teams will stack the line versus us. And if we can't get them away, which Fine gives us no indication that he can with consistency, it will be a difficult time for the offense. 

[GrandGreen]

Fine has apparently won the starter position.  He started as a true freshman and was injured probably limiting his progress through the spring.  He looked pretty good to me in the games he played when healthy.  I do realize that any NT qb is going to be subject to lots of criticism because according to some they are primarily responsible for every loss despite the level of play from the rest of the team and the opponent.   The next QB up is almost always the fan's choice at NT.  

Going from small town high school football to the FB level is a monumental jump.  NT was a bad football team last year with the weakest areas being the offensive line and wr corp.  That does not bode well for any QB.    

Fine may not be the answer, but he at least provides some assurance that NT will have a capable QB and no one at this point knows his ceiling.    NT's primary problem has been bad teams not any one position even QB.  

[Ben Gooding]

41 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

Fine has apparently won the starter position.  He started as a true freshman and was injured probably limiting his progress through the spring.  He looked pretty good to me in the games he played when healthy.  I do realize that any NT qb is going to be subject to lots of criticism because according to some they are primarily responsible for every loss despite the level of play from the rest of the team and the opponent.   The next QB up is almost always the fan's choice at NT.  

Going from small town high school football to the FB level is a monumental jump.  NT was a bad football team last year with the weakest areas being the offensive line and wr corp.  That does not bode well for any QB.    

Fine may not be the answer, but he at least provides some assurance that NT will have a capable QB and no one at this point knows his ceiling.    NT's primary problem has been bad teams not any one position even QB.  

I agree. Your outlook is an optimistic one. I look at it from what I've seen. I'm not saying he isn't improving and can't improving. I just haven't seen the improvement. I, like you, hope the improvement is there. Because for us to be good, while having him as our starter, it'll need to be. 

[AustinFromUNT]

2 hours ago, MGNation92 said:

I'm gonna get downvoted to oblivion for this but here's my skip bayless hot take of  the season:

Even if he somehow stays healthy for the entire season, Mason Fine won't pass for 2k yards or 20 tds and our defense will have to play at 2013 levels to get us to 6-6.

Prove me wrong

I would be willing to bet that if he stays healthy (plays all season) he will hit at least 2k yards. 20 TDs on the other hand may be slightly pushing it imo. I'm going to predict 2250 yards 6 INTs and 16 TDs, 3 of which will be rushing. I'm looking for a big performance from Jeffrey Wilson this year. That way by the next season Fine will truly be in a sink or swim situation with 2 years in the system and no excuse for failure.

[MGNation92]

13 minutes ago, AustinFromUNT said:

I would be willing to bet that if he stays healthy (plays all season) he will hit at least 2k yards. 20 TDs on the other hand may be slightly pushing it imo. I'm going to predict 2250 yards 6 INTs and 16 TDs, 3 of which will be rushing. I'm looking for a big performance from Jeffrey Wilson this year. That way by the next season Fine will truly be in a sink or swim situation with 2 years in the system and no excuse for failure.

Eh, for an offense predicated on exploiting matchups, especially in the passing game, if we, as an "Air Raid" offense, don't average 30+ points a game and 20+ passing TD's a season we need a new captain of the ship. 

Fine has the "moxie" but I sincerely doubt his physical capabilities of leading the offense to what it should look like as compared to other Air Raid offenses across the country, let alone our own conference(See La Tech and Western Kentucky)

THAT should be the standard. Not "Let's hope Jeffery Wilson can carry the offense on his back for 12 games completely healthy behind a shoddy OL"

[NeonGreen]

Did I miss something? I read at the end of spring that Littrell said that he will not announce a starting QB until Fall with Fine and Shanbour continuing to compete for the starting position. 

Edited May 23, 2017 by NeonGreen

[GrayEagle]

Maybe I'm just a cockeyed optimist but I think that an improved offensive line may help the quarterback and running back situation.  A big part of the improvement that I'm hoping for hasn't even enrolled yet.  It may put a quick-learning burden on three of the linemen but I feel that Mayfield, Mose, and Newman will work their way into the two-deep with one of them eventually a starter.  I believe that the coaching staff correctly identified Mose and Newman as under-evaluated and that they will "coached up".  Newman may have to be moved to guard because I like Barr's play at center.  

Right now, the OL is the weakest unit but the season opener is more than three months away.  

[GrandGreen]

7 hours ago, NeonGreen said:

Did I miss something? I read at the end of spring that Littrell said that he will not announce a starting QB until Fall with Fine and Shanbour continuing to compete for the starting position. 

I would assume that competition for all positions is always on going.  At this point, Fine is the number 1 QB, that could obviously change.  

[MeanGreenTexan]

11 hours ago, MGNation92 said:

I'm gonna get downvoted to oblivion for this but here's my skip bayless hot take of  the season:

Even if he somehow stays healthy for the entire season, Mason Fine won't pass for 2k yards or 20 tds and our defense will have to play at 2013 levels to get us to 6-6.

Prove me wrong

Who's going to do better?  The guy who notoriously tucks/runs way too early?  The injured guy we have no idea about?  The true freshman who's "head is spinning"?

Fine is already ~1/5 of the way to your goal of 2K yds simply due to swing passes to Wilson/Tucker/Smith.

Make no mistake, Wilson is the engine of the offense.  He's going to get the ball.  "Air Raid" or not, you get the ball to your best playmakers.

[MGNation92]

2 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Who's going to do better?  The guy who notoriously tucks/runs way too early?  The injured guy we have no idea about?  The true freshman who's "head is spinning"?

Fine is already ~1/5 of the way to your goal of 2K yds simply due to swing passes to Wilson/Tucker/Smith.

Make no mistake, Wilson is the engine of the offense.  He's going to get the ball.  "Air Raid" or not, you get the ball to your best playmakers.

I'd rather have a guy tuck it and run too early than one that goes through one read and takes a 15 yard sack

[MeanGreenTexan]

3 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

I'd rather have a guy tuck it and run too early than one that goes through one read and takes a 15 yard sack

Coach Littrell, Coach Harrell, and any other coach likely wouldn't.  
You're not guaranteed a successful run either, likely getting pulverized by a linebacker.  And you'll frustrate the heck out of your receivers.

And again, as I recall saying before to you, Fine was a TRUE FRESHMAN last year.  He will improve.

[NeonGreen]

38 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Who's going to do better?  The guy who notoriously tucks/runs way too early?  The injured guy we have no idea about?  The true freshman who's "head is spinning"?

Fine is already ~1/5 of the way to your goal of 2K yds simply due to swing passes to Wilson/Tucker/Smith.

Make no mistake, Wilson is the engine of the offense.  He's going to get the ball.  "Air Raid" or not, you get the ball to your best playmakers.

Unless you are referring to someone other than Shanbour, I wouldn't call a guy who threw for 2 TDs and 253 yards with limited time in the spring scrimmage an early tuck it and run guy. 

[MeanGreenTexan]

1 minute ago, NeonGreen said:

Unless you are referring to someone other than Shanbour, I wouldn't call a guy who threw for 2 TDs and 253 yards with limited time in the spring scrimmage an early tuck it and run guy. 

The Spring Game?  Are you kidding me?  The Spring Game?

Yes, I'm referring to Shanbour.  And yes, when he's playing against other teams that are scheming to stop him and not just working on things you work on during a Spring Game, he absolutely has shown time and again that he bails on a play way too early to run.  And his body of work is much longer than just a true freshman year.

[NeonGreen]

Whatever man. We just see things differently. 

Edited May 23, 2017 by NeonGreen

[Aldo]

11 hours ago, MGNation92 said:

Yeah I'm just very skeptical about the offense as a whole. I love our WR/RB groups, but Fine scares me, especially after

seemingly no improvement

from the limited amount I saw him.. 

 

[TreeFiddy]

50 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

The Spring Game?  Are you kidding me?  The Spring Game?

Yes, I'm referring to Shanbour.  And yes, when he's playing against other teams that are scheming to stop him and not just working on things you work on during a Spring Game, he absolutely has shown time and again that he bails on a play way too early to run.  And his body of work is much longer than just a true freshman year.

Since we are not using Spring game or practices, I assume this is Shanbour's body of work you are referring to?  http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3122975/quinn-shanbour

 

[MeanGreenTexan]

5 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

Since we are not using Spring game or practices, I assume this is Shanbour's body of work you are referring to?  http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3122975/quinn-shanbour

 

I never mentioned practices.  Those are much more indicative than a single Spring Practice Game.
There's that stat, and also the myriad of other practices that have kept him from playing through the years.  He's a runner.  He doesn't have much patience in the pocket.  It's just the player he is.

Look Shanbour fans, I'm sorry to be the only one telling you this stuff...   The future is Fine & Pearson.  Shanbour appears to have worked his way to a backup role for now.  We'll see what Izzy does in the Fall, but don't expect Shanbour to start over Fine this season, or next.

I need to be clear: Nothing against Quinn Shanbour.  He's a great guy.  Very Football-smart.  Hard worker.  Fantastic teammate.  But, much like Dajon Williams' game against Nicholls St. was a mirage, you can't look at one Spring Practice stat line and say he's an amazing QB.

[forevereagle]

Just as a level set, in the 9 games that Fine played in last season, (not counting WKU since he barely played) he averaged more per game than what would be required to get to 2k for a full 12 game season. 20 TDs may be a high mark based on what we saw last season, but 2k yards should not be.

[outoftown]

If I were to be the one who would set Mr FInes bar for growth, I would say increase the completion percentage from 59% to 61 while maintaining the same yards per catch (not all on him, I know) and decrease the sack rate from a whopping 12% to 8% (which is still a lot but would be significant progress for him). With that kind of progress we would have an offense that could already be passing a lot more, which should open up a bit of space for the runners.

Edited May 23, 2017 by outoftown