MGB: UNT regents to discuss Littrell's contract

wardly · February 21, 2017

By the time we get to that point the P5 schools will have upped the anti. In the near future the G5 football programs will become a gate revenue sport, as all the big t.v. bucks are going to the P5 conferences.

untjim1995 · February 21, 2017

1 hour ago, wardly said:

By the time we get to that point the P5 schools will have upped the anti. In the near future the G5 football programs will become a gate revenue sport, as all the big t.v. bucks are going to the P5 conferences.

Which is why the realignment/regionalization of CUSA and SBC will have to happen...the reality is that the triggering of all of this is still 5+ years away, but it will be when the Big XII falls apart before 2025, which is when their GOR expires. TV contracts for leagues not named the B1G or SEC will continue to drop, unless you can deliver marquee programs AND markets that fans will follow nationally on TV.

The Big XII has exactly three programs that do this--Texas, OU, and Kansas. Those are the crown jewels for the next big realignment. You get great revenue sports, great TV markets, national recognition, and good to great academics. Everyone else is fighting to ride their coattails or find a spot at the Power League's table. We know the Pac-12 won't take any schools that are attached to non-liberal agendas, so its very probable that the Kansas' schools and TCU and Baylor are out. Its possible Texas could be as well, but Austin's politics fit the Pac-12 agenda pretty nicely, even enough to pave the way to get the other Texoma public schools to go with them. I think this will happen to get them to 16.

I think Kansas will go to the B1G. They get a western team to match up with Nebraska and Iowa, with the KC market, as well as AAU academic credibility, which is what the B1G schools all have had when they were admitted. I think the B1G will go after Missouri really hard, as well. They wanted to go o the B1G originally, but Nebraska took their place. They picture themselves like a B1G institution, plus it would put them in a conference with Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois, all schools they are geographically and historically connected to. That gets the B1G to 16.

I think the SEC would replace Mizzou with K-State, to help keep a Midwest presence, and add West Virginia, a school that fits their footprint fairly well and would give the conference some roots in the northern states of WV, VA, PA, and OH, as well as also adding another Southeastern school in a state they want some TV, which is easily East Carolina. That gets them TV sets in North Carolina, which is a lot of subscribers for the SEC Network to enjoy some more revenue. This gets them to 16.

The ACC has 15 teams, when you include Notre Dame. My bet is that they finally add UConn to their league for the hoops and the TV sets in NYC that they can finally try to tap into. That gets them to 16.

And then its closed for Power Schools. Its my belief that they will still play G5s, but the math says that the networks are going to tell these schools that scheduling must be better, so I see them telling their schools that they must play 9 conference games, 2 OOC games against Power schools, and then 1 G5. We may be lucky enough to still get that bodybag $$$, but its very possible that we won't, either. I could see the MWC and AAC, along with BYU and Army getting those bodybag games, but the MAC, SBC, and CUSA could be in those games, too. No matter what, the MWC and MAC have their conference affiliations set up nicely for travel. The other three do not, but the AAC looks down at CUSA and CUSA looks down at the SBC--for now. But money makes some people look prettier than you thought and lower expenses and higher gate revenues may just do that. My guess is that CUSA and the SBC realign first, seeing two setups like this:

UTEP, Texas State, UTSA, UNT, Rice, La Tech, ULL, ULM, Arky State, USM, UAB, and South Alabama.

Troy, MUTS, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Appy State, FIU, FAU, Ga Southern, Ga State, and Liberty (who is moving up to FBS in 2019)

Harry · February 21, 2017

32 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Which is why the realignment/regionalization of CUSA and SBC will have to happen...t

I tend to think there will be a second tier conference behind AAC comprised of the next level of AD budgets... regionality will play a part but the primary will be what is your overall commitment financially (facilities, academic support, attendance etc). The days of having schools who just don't have the budget or ability to compete at a higher level will be over. The ULM's -- who essentially game the system, will have to drop down to FCS.

The only interesting component of it to me is how attendance can offset financial challenges. UTSA comes to mind. As a satellite of the UT system, they are always going to have budget issues yet their location and their fan support put them in a unique place when C-USA expanded. C-USA's last remake was built around TV markets. This time around it will be based on budgets in my opinion.

To give you an idea, look at this dated (last year) listing of the AAC football coaching staffs:

Houston - Tom Herman, $3M/yr ($45M; $25M subsidy)
SMU - Chad Morris, $2.6M/yr ($55M; $13M subsidy)
Temple - Matt Rhule, $2.5M/yr ($39.8M; $10M subsidy)
Cincinnati - Tommy Tuberville, $2.4M/yr ($51.7M; $23M subsidy)
Navy - Ken Niumatalolo, $2.25M/yr (N/A; N/A)
UCF - Scott Frost, $2M/yr ($47.6M; $24.7M subsidy)
UConn - Bob Diaco, $1.7M/yr ($72M; $28M subsidy)
USF - Willie Taggart, $1.6M/yr ($47M; $21M subsidy)
Tulane - Willie Fritz, $1.5M/yr ($41M; $15.6M subsidy)
ECU - Scottie Montgomery, $1.25M/yr ($49M; $18M subsidy)
Memphis - Mike Norvell, $1.25M/yr ($43M; $18M subsidy)
Tulsa - Phil Montgomery, 800K ($40M; $5.5M subsidy)

What jumps out to me is their LAST place coach is paid more than ours. So it truly is not even close. Those who do their budgets to stay in the middle and "get by" will be passed by. Those who think outside of the box and look to build through coaching and facilities will move up.

EDIT: I forgot to mention SUBSIDIES -- very important factor. Schools that are running their entire AD off of student fees etc are less desirable in the new world order. This link explains it -- look at Georgia State: http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2016/4/19/11451554/Sun-Belt-Athletic-Budget-2015-Arkansas-State-Georgia-Southern-Appalachian-State