MGB: Looking back on national signing day (concerns are justified)

[Brett Vito]

MGB: Littrell has done a terrific job, but that doesn't mean concerns with recruiting are not justified

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2017/02/looking-back-on-national-signing-day.html/

[Greendylan]

Good read--honest and fair critique.

[Texas Stranger]

I would take the recruiting "standings" more seriously if bowl game invitations were based on them instead of using actual game results.  Or if signing/not signing one guy doesn't cause you to move up or down 3 or 4 spots.

[NorthTexan95]

Were the recruiting rankings that good for the players that lead the 2000 bowl teams?  I know that was a different time and was probably much harder to get rankings for non power schools.  I just don't remember a lot of guys who had offers to go elsewhere.  We had that stealth recruiting where it seemed we tried to hide players we were wanting to sign.  It's a much different world in recruiting now but I don' think you can look at the 1999, 1998, 1997 recruiting classes and say they were great at the time. 

[Mean Green 93-98]

Not too much to disagree with.  Like clockwork, he overstates his case for Dickey, but we'll leave that one alone.  However, his argument looking at this year's recruiting standings and wins/losses doesn't make his point.  To get an idea of how recruiting impacts wins and losses, you'd want to compare the previous 4 year's classes--players who have yet even to arrive on campus had nothing to do with this past year's wins and losses.  Unless I'm missing something and Vito is talking about previous classes, but he doesn't indicate that.

[keith]

1 hour ago, Brett Vito said:

MGB: Littrell has done a terrific job, but that doesn't mean concerns with recruiting are not justified

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2017/02/looking-back-on-national-signing-day.html/

'There are some stubborn old timers who hate to admit it, but Dickey brought in more highly rated and regarded talent than any coach UNT has had since returning to the FBS level and he had less to work with than anyone.'

Do you mean as graded by rating services or on field performance at North Texas or later?  I'm not sure how this debate would ever be resolved, but I'd say that this award could arguably go to Todd Dodge.  He had as little to work with as Dickey (highest rated class was number 82 nationally I believe) and no Bowl appearances or conference championships to parade in front of recruits.  On paper, Dodge's 2008 class ranked 57th nationally and touted 15 (yes, 15) 3-star recruits.  Lance Dunbar was in that class.  He followed that up with a 2009 class that had another 6 3-star recruits.  Things certainly dropped off rating-wise and his last 2010 class was ranked 117 nationally.  That class did not include a single 3-star recruit.  However, it did include, among others, Antonio Johnson, Mason Y'barbo, Zach Orr, Brandin Byrd, Brelan Chancellor, Jamize Olawale and Richard Abbe. 

[meanrob]

Just now, NorthTexan95 said:

Were the recruiting rankings that good for the players that lead the 2000 bowl teams?  I know that was a different time and was probably much harder to get rankings for non power schools.  I just don't remember a lot of guys who had offers to go elsewhere.  We had that stealth recruiting where it seemed we tried to hide players we were wanting to sign.  It's a much different world in recruiting now but I don' think you can look at the 1999, 1998, 1997 recruiting classes and say they were great at the time. 

Actually one of Dickey's classes he signed 7 State 100 recruits (help me out @Cerebus, I think that's right).

Also we got a few players we knew were going to be good. Buckles, Booger, Spencer, Pruitt, and others. Were they amazing classes? No, but there were some studs you couldn't wait to watch play. 

I don't live in the DFW area anymore but the DMN's recruiting rankings at the time were great. 

[GreenMachine]

Not sure where to ask this so hopefully this works: What happened to Rayvon Horton? He didn't qualify last year but thought he was in Denton enrolled. 

[Caw Caw]

9 minutes ago, GreenMachine said:

Not sure where to ask this so hopefully this works: What happened to Rayvon Horton? He didn't qualify last year but thought he was in Denton enrolled. 

Raveon Hoston did enroll, it's assumed currently he'll be walking on if he got his grades right over the last year.

[BTG_Fan1]

9 minutes ago, GreenMachine said:

Not sure where to ask this so hopefully this works: What happened to Rayvon Horton? He didn't qualify last year but thought he was in Denton enrolled. 

He didn't make the grades to play this past season, but he was on campus... I ran into him multiple times.. Would assume if he has the grades he would be on the team as a PWO.. With that said 2017 will be his last year to play..

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

On the concern side, when a coach says, "Turn on the tape" and watch them yourselves, he is admitting (even if subconsciously) that something has to explained:  he knows the class doesn't jump out at people.

On the relax side, when the dust settles, it's still just the watered down C-USA, a half-step over the Sun Belt.  It doesn't take much to rise.  The 1-11 to 5-8 is proof of that. 

My broadest take is:
(1) In this conference,
(2) with a real QB who can run the offense, and
(3) the defense doing at least as good a job as last season,
(4) there is no excuse whatsoever for Littrell to lose more than six regular season games.  None.

Our class isn't great, but neither is our conference.  We have a QB in it who was offered by the guy who recruited and groomed the Philadelphia Eagle's starting QB.  That should be enough if the defense holds up this end of the deal.  We are only chasing La. Tech and UTSA, not LSU, Alabama, or Oklahoma.

If we win five or less again, then I'll be a bit more concerned.  However, given that we'll have the identical OOC in 2018 and still be in the C-USA...I won't drive myself crazy over it.  If Littrell can't do it with the way the schedule lines up over the new few years, someone can - and, will.

3 minutes ago, Caw Caw said:

Raveon Hoston did enroll, it's assumed currently he'll be walking on if he got his grades right over the last year.

But, is he eligible?  How many years out of high school is he now, and how many of those enrolled at a university of college?

[Harry]

Good take.

[Caw Caw]

12 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

But, is he eligible?  How many years out of high school is he now, and how many of those enrolled at a university of college?

He should have one year left to play. I'm not banking on it (I'm banking on Bryce English improving the D-line though), anything we get out of him will be a bonus. If he plays I think he, and English, will be a nasty pair of wrecking balls in CUSA.

And, on your other comments, I find myself in a really similar boat as you. I wouldn't even be shocked if we took a step backward this year to move forward. It's not ideal, but it's not uncommon in second year head coaches. I also think when you look at the talent that is leaving CUSA this year for some of the better teams: Trent Taylor, Carlos Henderson, Ryan Higgens, Taywan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Nick Mullens, etc. They also have to fill some really big shoes. Aaron Jones literally beat us by himself. That's the state of conference USA. We're all one Aaron Jones or Carlos Henderson away from conference title.

[Harry]

The remarkable thing about those Dickey classes was he did not have a pot to pi$$ in terms of facilities, conference, AD support, asst salaries...the list just goes on and on.  How he and Kenny would have loved to have an Apogee Stadium, athletic center, practice fields, C-USA, higher asst pool.  They would have thought they died and went to heaven. 

Which makes their accomplishments all that more impressive in my mind.

The thing I think Brett missed on, although he does show the 247 rankings - is the frustration that UTSA and their success in the rankings brings to the fan base.   Frank WIlson started at the same time as Littrell and does not have near the assets to bring to the table that we do.  Yet he still managed to create a buzz around their class that paid dividends.

I used to sell and buy-into the stars don't matter argument until I lived through it in two consecutive coaching tenures (Dodge/Mac). 

This is the bottom line, and you can ignore it but it has proven true time and time again...

Stars=Offers=Higher Percentage of Anticipated Success

If more schools want and offer the player the more stars he will have.  More often than not higher offer players seem to excel.

So if you state we don't believe in stars you might as well be saying, "we don't want the players that other schools want."

 

[Mad Hatter]

How long are we still limited on scholarships?

[Caw Caw]

22 minutes ago, Mad Hatter said:

How long are we still limited on scholarships?

We're not limited, per say on any restriction. Attrition and poor recruiting, mostly by other coaches, has seriously hindered the amount of scholarship players because we can only take 25 per class to make up for a larger-than-most-other-schools deficit. Some projections has us closer to full strength 2019 if recruiting goes well the next couple years.

[Mean Green 93-98]

4 hours ago, Harry said:

This is the bottom line, and you can ignore it but it has proven true time and time again...

Stars=Offers

 

Not exactly . . . you can find 3-star recruits with more offers than 4-star recruits; you can find 2-star recruits with more offers than 3-star recruits.

[untjim1995]

13 hours ago, Harry said:

The remarkable thing about those Dickey classes was he did not have a pot to pi$$ in terms of facilities, conference, AD support, asst salaries...the list just goes on and on.  How he and Kenny would have loved to have an Apogee Stadium, athletic center, practice fields, C-USA, higher asst pool.  They would have thought they died and went to heaven. 

Which makes their accomplishments all that more impressive in my mind.

The thing I think Brett missed on, although he does show the 247 rankings - is the frustration that UTSA and their success in the rankings brings to the fan base.   Frank WIlson started at the same time as Littrell and does not have near the assets to bring to the table that we do.  Yet he still managed to create a buzz around their class that paid dividends.

I used to sell and buy-into the stars don't matter argument until I lived through it in two consecutive coaching tenures (Dodge/Mac). 

This is the bottom line, and you can ignore it but it has proven true time and time again...

Stars=Offers=Higher Percentage of Anticipated Success

If more schools want and offer the player the more stars he will have.  More often than not higher offer players seem to excel.

So if you state we don't believe in stars you might as well be saying, "we don't want the players that other schools want."

 

Dickey also didn't have to compete with UTSA or Texas State as Fbs teams back then. Thats 170 kids that are playing FBS on scholarship in Texas that weren't back in the Dickey days.

[GTWT]

14 hours ago, Harry said:

Stars=Offers=Higher Percentage of Anticipated Success

 

Not always.  Remember Keith's nugget?

Things certainly dropped off rating-wise and his last 2010 class was ranked 117 nationally.  

That class did not include a single 3-star recruit.  However, it did include, among others, Antonio Johnson, Mason Y'barbo, Zach Orr, Brandin Byrd, Brelan Chancellor, Jamize Olawale and Richard Abbe. 

[Eagleisland]

Texas Monthly recruiting issue currently on the stands, lists 5 North Texas signees among the state's top players, with fairly detailed write-ups on each. We can hope that these players are all hits and that some of the lesser acclaimed recruits have big upsides that many colleges didn't want to gamble on. As I say, the only proof of a recruiting class in the end is how they perform on the field. While stars count, they aren't perfect. UT consistently had higher ranked classes than TCU and Baylor when those schools outperformed the Horns. Boise originally built its program on JC's and lesser known recruits. It is possible, though not probable. As for this class, I'll hold my judgement until I see how they do.

[MeanGreenTexan]

9 hours ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Not exactly . . . you can find 3-star recruits with more offers than 4-star recruits; you can find 2-star recruits with more offers than 3-star recruits.

Yep.   You have to remember, these recruiting sites are private entities.   The information behind it is strictly word of mouth.  There's no science to it.  They can reach out to a recruit and talk to him about which schools have offered him.  It's up to the recruit to say.   Some recruits may embellish (increasing the number of "offers"...maybe including PWO offers in with scholly offers).  Some recruits may have specific schools they have in mind and don't talk about their other offers which would decrease the number of "offers" being reported.

Take, for instance, Tyreke Davis:  
He's a special player.  Everyone can see that.  I'm almost willing to bet with how Tyreke committed so early, he likely would have had a bunch of offers from other schools, but UNT is where he WANTED to go from the start, and he probably shut down his recruiting, therefore showing few "offers" according to these websites.

[untjim1995]

1 hour ago, GTWT said:

Not always.  Remember Keith's nugget?

 

 

What was the record for that recruiting class for 2010-2014? Hint---it doesn't help your argument...

[MeanGreen_MBA]

25 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Yep.   You have to remember, these recruiting sites are private entities.   The information behind it is strictly word of mouth.  There's no science to it.  They can reach out to a recruit and talk to him about which schools have offered him.  It's up to the recruit to say.   Some recruits may embellish (increasing the number of "offers"...maybe including PWO offers in with scholly offers).  Some recruits may have specific schools they have in mind and don't talk about their other offers which would decrease the number of "offers" being reported.

Take, for instance, Tyreke Davis:  
He's a special player.  Everyone can see that.  I'm almost willing to bet with how Tyreke committed so early, he likely would have had a bunch of offers from other schools, but UNT is where he WANTED to go from the start, and he probably shut down his recruiting, therefore showing few "offers" according to these websites.

good insight there....didn't think of it.  How many players included offers from teams they just talked to?  I know if I was in that position, I would mention every conversation I had with any coach from anywhere

[MeanGreenTexan]

1 minute ago, MeanGreen_MBA said:

good insight there....didn't think of it.  How many players included offers from teams they just talked to?  I know if I was in that position, I would mention every conversation I had with any coach from anywhere

Well, the guys on those sites likely dig a little more than that.  
If a team is just stopping by to talk to a recruit, but don't offer anything, he likely won't mention those schools as having an "offer" from them, just "interest".

[wardly]

I am sure their are examples of individual recruits breaking the mold. However, this class basically looks like all the ones we have had since Dickey struck gold about 15 years ago. And, one again, we have a coach who says rankings don't matter. How has that worked out for us since Darrell left? Its my take that a coach who discounts ranking is one that got badly out recruited. While I respect Brett Vito, how in the world  you give a "C" rating to a staff that is 12th in the conference and 116th in the nation is beyond me. However, on further examination Brett is right. This class is about average for North Texas, and that's why we have a horse shit football program.I expect more.