Grade the Littrell Hire V5 (First Full NSD)

[GOMG2013]

1 hour ago, TIgreen01 said:

How is this any different than DMac at this point?  We went 5-7 in his first year (no APR bonus to grant us a bowl), too.  Then stunk it up on the recruiting trail the next two years and that led to 2015---arguably the worst UNT football team ever fielded.

Littrel is getting a lot of hype because of how bad the team looked last year.  I don't think Mac even got that much hype even after the 9 win season.  Many were saying pump the brakes on the extention, while littrel is getting A's and B's?

Mac's biggest downfall was QB.  Other areas he brought on talent and coached players up.  

Littrel was brought in to improve the offense.  So far, that is a bust.  Ok, give him some time...I was really figuring a Littrell hire would translate to at least a 3 star QB prospect.  If we had a 3 star QB this class, it would be so hype and enthusiastic around here.  Even if he was a bust, at least it would look like we were on our way up.  As of right now, Litrell looks like 6 to 7 wins is the ceiling until he can bring in a top QB.  He could go to a bowl every other year and hang on to the job for about 6 years...maybe even longer...

[BillySee58]

1 hour ago, UNT90 said:

 @BillySee58 Did UNT win one recruiting battle against any conference foe? Honest question.

I'd say we won one. Jalen Guyton was offered by Marshall in October and committed to us in December.

Jacob Brammer held an offer from Rice back in the summer, but it doesn't seem like they were actively recruiting him by the time we got around to, especially since he only took the one official visit to us. Jaelon Darden also held a Southern Miss offer, but that was given to him about 9 months ago. Looks like he was down to us and Texas Southern at the end. So they held other CUSA offers at one point, but they weren't being actively recruited by them when we were recruiting them.

From what I saw, I believe out of the 11 commits we got (including blueshirts) since dead period ended, I don't think a single one chose us over another FBS school that had an offer to them and was actively recruiting them.

Roberts, Gieser, Mcgehee, and Thornton didn't have any other offers. Novil chose us over an FCS program (ACU), Tibbs chose us over FCS schools, Brammer had offers from Rice and New Mexico but they were about 7 months old once dead period ended, Parish "flipped" from Texas State but they had 6 other o-line commits at the time including 4 tackles, so I think he had been told to look elsewhere, as he had previously removed Texas state commit from his twitter page, and I believe his New Mexico offer was from before he committed to Texas State back in June.

Greg White had a couple FBS offers from a long time ago as well, but we flipped him from Grambling so I doubt he chose Grambling over Tulane or Ohio. Jaelon Darden had a good offer list but he only received offers from us and Texas southern after he decommitted, and it seemed our offer was a game changer as he postponed his announcement so that leads me to believe he was about to commit FCS until we came in yesterday. Tre Siggers chose us over Lamar and, I think Grambling (it was an FCS school). He had a Texas Tech hat on the table, but considering Tech offered back in June of 2015 (20 months ago), I think it's safe to say that hat was just for show.

So those are the 11 guys and I don't see a single FBS school we actually outrecruited for their services. Good news is, some of these guys are still solid prospects and I think we'll get some solid production out of them. Bad news is our staff really didn't show much ability to really outrecruit schools head to head.

[Army of Dad]

3 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Wow.  So far, lots of myopic folks, only looking at recruiting class rankings I guess, and forgetting this dude took over a 1-11 squad that looked like a ship with no rudder last year and led them to a bowl game.   

Big picture folks.  Big picture.

Yeah, this class looks lackluster on paper, but he worked a miracle this past year on the gridiron.

I think you could contend that taking 3-5 win talent and getting 5 wins isn't a miracle. You could also then contend that someone who weighs that heavily is being myopic.

2 hours ago, Tyler Maryak said:

Wow, significant shift. No A+ grades as of the time I post this. Some folks taking the low rankings personally. 

Maybe just seriously and not personally.

[BillySee58]

33 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

Mac's biggest downfall was QB.  Other areas he brought on talent and coached players up.  

Really solid post. I agree that QB was his biggest downfall, but I think we'd be remiss to omit his inabilities to bring in offensive linemen and receivers.

From 2011 to 2014 (his first 4 years), only 1 starting lineman those entire 4 seasons was a guy Mccarney signed out of high school, in Cyril Lemon. Those entire 4 seasons! Technically Rentfro started a couple games in 2014 when Antonio Johnson got hurt, but that was it. It was all Dodge guys, Lemon, a JUCO signee (McKinney), and walkons. That's awful high school production.

As for receiver, Mccarney signed 13 receivers in his 5 recruiting classes. Carlos Harris was good, but after him, the receiver out of those 13 with the most career receiving yards is Turner Smiley with 839 career receiving yards. And very little production came under Mccarney. He signed some decent prospects, but the production for the group as a whole was very underwhelming.

[Mike Jackson]

@BillySee58 great breakdown.  I don't follow recruiting much but I was still disappointed.  They brought in a lot of bodies but nothing jumps off the page at you.  When 247sports has the UNT recruiting class rank 12th out of 14 that is terrible.  We all know these rating services can be grossly inaccurate but 12th out 14 making allowances for reasonable inaccuracies of their analysis would still have you in the bottom half of the conference ranking.  This season will be critical going forward with Seth.  His staff and him will have to get more out of on paper talent this team has to earn a bowl game appearance with wins instead of grades.

 

[GOMG2013]

1 minute ago, BillySee58 said:

Really solid post. I agree that QB was his biggest downfall, but I think we'd be remiss to omit his inabilities to bring in offensive linemen and receivers.

From 2011 to 2014 (his first 4 years), only 1 starting lineman those entire 4 seasons was a guy Mccarney signed out of high school, in Cyril Lemon. Those entire 4 seasons! Technically Rentfro started a couple games in 2014 when Antonio Johnson got hurt, but that was it. It was all Dodge guys, Lemon, a JUCO signee (McKinney), and walkons. That's awful high school production.

As for receiver, Mccarney signed 13 receivers in his 5 recruiting classes. Carlos Harris was good, but after him, the receiver out of those 13 with the most career receiving yards is Turner Smiley with 839 career receiving yards. And very little production came under Mccarney. He signed some decent prospects, but the production for the group as a whole was very underwhelming.

How would we know if the WRs were any good since the QBs were so bad though.  Someone has to get them the ball.  

[BillySee58]

6 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

How would we know if the WRs were any good since the QBs were so bad though.  Someone has to get them the ball.  

Carlos Harris had 2,396 yards during the Mccarney era (2011-2015). The other 12 receivers Mccarney signed combined to record 1,188 receiving yards during the same period.

Bad QB play doesn't explain why one receiver had over twice as many receiving yards as 12 other guys combined.

[Tyler Maryak]

3 hours ago, Tyler Maryak said:

Wow, significant shift. No A+ grades as of the time I post this. Some folks taking the low recruit rankings personally. 

 

50 minutes ago, Army of Dad said:

I think you could contend that taking 3-5 win talent and getting 5 wins isn't a miracle. You could also then contend that someone who weighs that heavily is being myopic.

Maybe just seriously and not personally.

One grade shift of the bell curve would be one thing. Two would suggest that someone takes serious stock in the value of high recruiting ratings. But a three level grade shift? That's a "sky is falling reaction."

Don't get me wrong - I'm utterly befuddled by the situation. It's damn frustrating that a big recruiter of ours just walked away while our conference mates are rocketing skyward. But "at the end of the day" I want the Ws. If they can some how get those with mostly 2 stars, so be it. I think a bad recruiting class after turning a 1-11 team into a 5-7 team isn't reason enough to flunk the man. (For the record, I dropped from a B to a C+ on this vote.)

[Mean Green 93-98]

2 hours ago, GOMG2013 said:

Can you provide some examples for me.  I know some have the same opinion, but other than QB, I can't seem to find any improvement in other areas.  I'm really asking and not trying to be funny or sarcastic.  

Yes, I know we won more, but there's other things that can easily contribute to winning more games the following year such as younger players just being a year older, injuries to the other team, more favorable matchups, easier schedule.

One example of on the field improvement I saw that led to the 9 win season was the upgrade at both corners with Buyers and James Jones.  Another upgrade that year came in hiring Tommy Perry and almost all areas of special trams contributed.  I didn't see anything like that last season.

I saw better QB play than McNulty and the defense was not a bend don't break defense.  That still does not equate to finding diamonds in the rough and coaching up talent.  It just means they didn't suck as bad as mcnulty, chico, mac, and cosh.  

My very point is that he has not been doing a great job bringing in talent.  But he was able to take the absolutely worst team in FBS last year--arguably the worst in the history of FBS/1A--and quintuple their win total and get them to a bowl game.  Those "other things" you mention might account for a win or two, but not 4 extra wins, especially when you consider how badly they were getting blown out in 2016.

[Got5onIt]

Downgraded to a B- for the below average first full season recruiting....

[AustinFromUNT]

2 hours ago, GOMG2013 said:

Littrel is getting a lot of hype because of how bad the team looked last year.  I don't think Mac even got that much hype even after the 9 win season.  Many were saying pump the brakes on the extention, while littrel is getting A's and B's?

Mac's biggest downfall was QB.  Other areas he brought on talent and coached players up.  

Littrel was brought in to improve the offense.  So far, that is a bust.  Ok, give him some time...I was really figuring a Littrell hire would translate to at least a 3 star QB prospect.  If we had a 3 star QB this class, it would be so hype and enthusiastic around here.  Even if he was a bust, at least it would look like we were on our way up.  As of right now, Litrell looks like 6 to 7 wins is the ceiling until he can bring in a top QB.  He could go to a bowl every other year and hang on to the job for about 6 years...maybe even longer...

We brought in Isadore who is a 3 star QB. He's a walkon, but he is a 3 star QB none-the-less

[Aquila_Viridis]

One thing I noticed right away is that none of these guys are named Jimmy or Joe. 

[MeanGreenTexan]

14 hours ago, UNT90 said:

Jimmy and Joes.

Counting on gridiron miracles year after year isn't a healthy program plan.

Deep down you know this. Denial is the strongest human emotion. 

@BillySee58 Did UNT win one recruiting battle against any conference foe? Honest question.

Absolutely.   ...but who's to say Littrell is not right?  Maybe he did get his Jimmies & Joes.  He's certainly going to be on the hook for them.   I just see what he did last year, and expect that result again this year.   Not saying I expect a 4-win improvement from this past year, but I expect to see this team in a bowl game again next year, and not based on a 6-6 record.  This is not 'denial'.  This is taking everything into account since his hire.  Not what has transpired over the past week.

13 hours ago, Army of Dad said:

I think you could contend that taking 3-5 win talent and getting 5 wins isn't a miracle. You could also then contend that someone who weighs that heavily is being myopic.

What kind of argument is this?  ...we didn't have "3-5 wins" last year.   We won 1!  
Does not matter what talent you have, if you don't have buy-in, you don't have talent.   Last year's team had no buy-in.  Littrell changed that.

 

Everyone touts Gary Patterson as being this amazing coach (and he is) because he can take talent, and move them around on the field to get the most out of them.   Until recently, his classes have been nothing to write home about as compared to his conference mates... he just identifies talent, and wins with them.   Can Littrell do the same?   We're about to find out.

Again, I'm not trying to explain away what appears to be a failure on the recruiting trail (especially in the trenches, and I would expect a better QB to want to come be a part of this thing), but I'm not going to give the Littrell hire a "C", which in my mind means "barely passing", because of it.

[GOMG2013]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

What kind of argument is this?  ...we didn't have "3-5 wins" last year.   We won 1!  
Does not matter what talent you have, if you don't have buy-in, you don't have talent.   Last year's team had no buy-in.  Littrell changed that.

I agree about the buy in, but last year's team had more talent than 1 win. Should have won UTEP too.  A new atmosphere, attitude, and speech helped this team out tremendously. The new schemes on offense and defende also did more with the talent we had.  It was still the same talent with the same flaws when it was all said and done.

Speeches and attitude changes are great, but there also needs to be some sort of skill and talent involved with the coaching staff for this thing to keep going, or we will have another Mac situation on our hands.  What happens when the rah, rah, rah runs out?  What happens when that same speech gets old?  

Several times we were not able to line up and get a yard. Several times we got beat on 3rd and long and there was 1 on 1 coverage with no safety help.  It should concern you that there was no tee it high and let it fly.  That was his MO.  The grad transfer was not ready to play and we got by with a true freshman QB who had the ability to run and make plays.

I am still concerned about the talent evaluation.  Morris was not prepared and ready to start the season.  Wyche at RB and Moore at db were the preseason stars that did not look close to being ready once they got in a game.  But they practiced so well.  Seems kinda DMac ish to me.  

One thing I give Litrell props for was making adjustments.  He wasn't stubborn and just stuck with guys.  But he was also playing with house money cause of the 1-11.  What happens now that expectations are higher?  

[MeanGreenTexan]

22 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

I agree about the buy in, but last year's team had more talent than 1 win. Should have won UTEP too.  A new atmosphere, attitude, and speech helped this team out tremendously. The new schemes on offense and defende also did more with the talent we had.  It was still the same talent with the same flaws when it was all said and done.

Speeches and attitude changes are great, but there also needs to be some sort of skill and talent involved with the coaching staff for this thing to keep going, or we will have another Mac situation on our hands.  What happens when the rah, rah, rah runs out?  What happens when that same speech gets old?  

Several times we were not able to line up and get a yard. Several times we got beat on 3rd and long and there was 1 on 1 coverage with no safety help.  It should concern you that there was no tee it high and let it fly.  That was his MO.  The grad transfer was not ready to play and we got by with a true freshman QB who had the ability to run and make plays.

I am still concerned about the talent evaluation.  Morris was not prepared and ready to start the season.  Wyche at RB and Moore at db were the preseason stars that did not look close to being ready once they got in a game.  But they practiced so well.  Seems kinda DMac ish to me.  

One thing I give Litrell props for was making adjustments.  He wasn't stubborn and just stuck with guys.  But he was also playing with house money cause of the 1-11.  What happens now that expectations are higher?  

He needs to win with the guys he's bringing in.    Prove the 24/7 rankings wrong.   If he can't do that, and we're stuck meddling around at 5-7 again next year, then he failed.   I need to be clear:   The expectations are high.  Last year, I expected to win 5 games (check the GYROTR thread).  That expectation was met.   This year, I expect to win more.

You're right that there was no "tee it high and let it fly" as far as passing goes, but our greatest weapon was (and still is) Jeff Wilson.   Put the ball in his hands.  Also, our WRs last year were not very good outside of T.Wilson and Goree, who's now gone.   Can't really expect to flip from a run-heavy offense to a true air-raid overnight with the resources he had.   The offensive numbers went WAY UP though.  Hopefully Hair-Griffin is ready to contribute after his RS year.  We'll see if Darden and White can step right in as well... I mean, these are Littrell's guys.

[BTG_Fan1]

I was between a B-,B but that is mostly because he took a team that got blown out by a D2 to a bowl in his first year. He did this with a entirely new offense and defense, and without his best offensive player late in the year.. Yes the record of 2-5 is terrible after the high hopes that we had for the Army game. But playing LAT solid at home during Homecoming after last years massacre, was a positive.. But to get ran out of the house by UTSA, WKU, UTEP was a major disappointment, but then they put on a solid offense showing VS Army in the HoD(defense didn't play well at all).. While this class isn't as highly ranked as the 2016 class, I do expect us to bring in hopefully another 2 or 3 guys.. At this time last year Jenkins, I believe had signed with Cinny but then got released and we signed him during the summer.. Adding a couple of guys like that would and will help the "ranking" of the class but as of now the best I could do is a B.

I would have to say while this wasn't the sexiest NSD, it was a NSD that should be a building block.. All those years the Cowboys picked OL it wasn't the sexiest draft classes, and that is how I view this class. Its a class that added a lot of beef and size and depth.. This OL was the weakest part of the team, and they addressed it along with the lack of play-makers at the RB and WR spots. The RBs from this class could be RS with us having Wilson, Tucker, Wyche, and Smith but the WRs should thinking they have a chance to come in play Day 1. The OL I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 2 or 3 of these guys play(maybe more). With that being said, I'm hoping that we don't see us fall back to 2-10 or something because of the # of young guys, and the leadership that was lost from this past SR class. If we can find 2 OL in this class that is great, and with how the staff talked the JUCO sounds like he could start, with Newman and Morse having a chance to challenge... Adding Izzy as a PWO(which sounds like he could become a BS in the fall) is great along with having Pearson in the program as well this spring/summer. I'm okay seeing a minor regression if it means we played young guys and improve over the year, but we can't have another wasted season of going 2-10.. we have to see some improvement if that means in young guys or record-wise..

Edited February 2, 2017 by BTG_Fan1