MGB: Five burning questions heading into offseason

[shaft]

Now for a bit of trolling...Riley Dodge was a four star recruit.

[greenminer]

We had one or two linemen transfer from Arkansas (IIRC) like 5 years ago that never panned out.

[untjim1995]

3 hours ago, UTSA Fan said:

**WARNING I root for both teams ** Why so hard? You have the city, venue, recruiting area and hot offense scheme? LA Tech is the worst I've seen in location and venue but somehow get it done. Even San Marcos (God help them) even have a worse situation and yet... I think it's fair to challenge the notion as to why it's hard. I've been on here and read how hard it is but no one says why and it's accepted as fact. It's hard "here" implies location and facility. I see on here those are program strengths. Doesn't make sense to me. 

Part of it, I think, is linked to lots of losing since the early 80s, the drop down to I-AA for 12 years with a very lowly funded program, and a half-ass effort when we moved up to I-A in 1995. The other part, I believe, is connected to a city that loves music and arts, but has either loathed or acted apathetic toward UNT athletics. TX HS coaches and parents have long memories--and that has pushed us super low on the recruiting front in the region.

[GTWT]

You're judging recruiting success based on one time-constrained class (2016) and one class (2017) that isn't final yet?  Jesus wept.

[Cerebus]

11 hours ago, shaft said:

Now for a bit of trolling...Riley Dodge was a four star recruit.

At ATH, not QB.  

[FirefightnRick]

11 hours ago, greenminer said:

We had one or two linemen transfer from Arkansas (IIRC) like 5 years ago that never panned out.

Just another reason why I pay zero attention to recruiting and wait and see how it plays out.  

There's been many 4 and 5 star kids that never pan out, transferring here and there.

Was it the Seattle Super bowl team a couple of years ago that didn't have a single player who was  5 star out of HS?

It boils down to what our coaches think and what they do with the talent, not what someone sitting in a cubicle who never saw the kid play thinks.

#RecruitingDoesntMatterToMe

 

Rick

Edited January 5, 2017 by FirefightnRick

[UTSA Fan]

2 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Just another reason why I pay zero attention to recruiting and wait and see how it plays out.  

There's been many 4 and 5 star kids that never pan out, transferring here and there.

Was it the Seattle Super bowl team a couple of years ago that didn't have a single player who was  5 star out of HS?

It boils down to what our coaches think and what they do with the talent, not what someone sitting in a cubicle who never saw the kid play thinks.

#RecruitingDoesntMatterToMe

 

Rick

I think you are confusing two different things. You're referencing a draft metric- the correlation between stars and nfl success instead of a recruiting metric showing the correlation between stars and ncaa success. As stated earlier, the evidence in ncaa football is beyond dispute that a team with more players with higher ratings give you a higher chance at success. 

[VideoEagle]

I think National Signing Day is Feb 1. I peronsally don't plan on worrying about how our signing class "ranks" till all the classes are actually signed.

 

[MeanGreenTexan]

Anyone not alarmed by where we stand recruiting-wise after a pretty nice season rebounding from the 1-11 debacle:

 

Not saying Littrell & Co. can't pull a rabbit out of the hat, but if we can't recruit well after that kind of 1-year turnaround... we're in trouble.

I like alot of the pieces currently in place for this class, and hope more like them are on the way... but I'm worried.

[FirefightnRick]

3 hours ago, UTSA Fan said:

I think you are confusing two different things. You're referencing a draft metric- the correlation between stars and nfl success instead of a recruiting metric showing the correlation between stars and ncaa success. As stated earlier, the evidence in ncaa football is beyond dispute that a team with more players with higher ratings give you a higher chance at success. 

No, I'm not confusing it at all.  All I'm saying is I'm not going to worry about it because time and time again I can point to how meaningless the star rankings are.

Rick

[MeanGreenTexan]

1 minute ago, FirefightnRick said:

No, I'm not confusing it at all.  All I'm saying is I'm not going to worry about it because time and time again I can point to how meaningless the star rankings are.

Rick

Time and time again you could also point to how meaningful the star rankings are as well.    
Alabama & Clemson ain't in the national championship and Western Michigan did not rise up to AP#16 because of some 2* "diamonds in the rough" like we seem to constantly be getting.

[GTWT]

It ain't the stars & it ain't the number & quality of offers - it's how well the kid fits your needs & your scheme.  The best judge of that are the coaches, not the recruiting gurus & not the folks on this board.  How well they recruited won't be known in February, it will take years to know the value of the class.  Patience & faith.

[MeanGreenTexan]

30 minutes ago, GTWT said:

It ain't the stars & it ain't the number & quality of offers - it's how well the kid fits your needs & your scheme.  The best judge of that are the coaches, not the recruiting gurus & not the folks on this board.  How well they recruited won't be known in February, it will take years to know the value of the class.  Patience & faith.

Is that right?

So, in light of us losing a 2* Tight End because (per a coach), " they didn’t have much of a use for a tight end. They de-emphasized the position in their offense. ", do you think Littrell & Co would turn down this guy if he reached out and begged for a UNT offer?  
He plays Tight End, so he obviously doesn't "fit your needs & your scheme".

No, he would immediately have an offer because he's the #1-rated Tight End in the country due to his abilities.

Have patience & faith... sure!   Be worried because recruiting is not looking good on paper less than a month away from signing day... sure!

[greenminer]

1 hour ago, FirefightnRick said:

No, I'm not confusing it at all.  All I'm saying is I'm not going to worry about it because time and time again I can point to how meaningless the star rankings are.

Rick

They are imperfect, but that doesn't make them meaningless.

I'm not going to go into this, because I think you already know and you've probably already read @Cerebus's posts about odds/percentages of success relative to the star label.  So, we'll have to agree to disagree that they are meaningless.

Follow up: I do tend to put red flags on transfers that were highly rated out of high school.

While the star system is strictly based on athletic ability/football ceiling (or tries to be), there are other intangible dynamics involved, I believe, that can have an impact on that players potential contribution.  Once they transfer, and you see that they did not really contribute at their first stop, you have to consider that though the athletic ability might be there, there is something else going on that is in play.  You wish them the best, but their contributions are more likely to not live up to the star/label they were given in HS.

Edited January 5, 2017 by greenminer

[FirefightnRick]

2 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Time and time again you could also point to how meaningful the star rankings are as well.    
Alabama & Clemson ain't in the national championship and Western Michigan did not rise up to AP#16 because of some 2* "diamonds in the rough" like we seem to constantly be getting.

Minus Alabama's QB from Allen, right?

And once we win conference like WKY and La Tech do with the same non-Alabama/Clemson level recruits.....THEN maybe I'll get interested, do a cartwheel and go bananas over them like so many others seem to do every year at this time.

Till then I'll expect the coaches to find the best they can, discover a Casey Fitz here and there, coach them up into a non predictable mass of run defense and scoring and win.  

 

Rick

[MeanGreenTexan]

8 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Minus Alabama's QB from Allen, right?

And once we win conference like WKY and La Tech do with the same non-Alabama/Clemson level recruits.....THEN maybe I'll get interested, do a cartwheel and go bananas over them like so many others seem to do every year at this time.

Till then I'll expect the coaches to find the best they can, discover a Casey Fitz here and there, coach them up into a non predictable mass of run defense and scoring and win.  

 

Rick

And how do we determine who these guys are? 

[GTWT]

15 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

And how do we determine who these guys are? 

We let the coaches evaluate a players athletic ability & how well they fit the system.

[FirefightnRick]

10 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

And how do we determine who these guys are? 

The coaches have to evaluate them. 

 

Rick

[MeanGreenTexan]

2 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

The coaches have to evaluate them. 

 

Rick

I suppose until Nick Saban, Seth Littrell & other coaches open their own evaluation subscription websites, the only way we can gather an idea of what kind of players we should go after will be through looking at offer lists and recruiting websites... like we're doing now.  

There is plenty of evidence out there around star ratings and their effectiveness in rating players.  Of course, there are plenty of under-the-radar guys and over-hyped guys too.  But, for the most part, these rating systems are a good look into players' abilities.   So if we were to land a 4* guy, it would be cause for excitement.  And when we're adding another 2* guy with offers from FCS schools, there is plenty of room for skepticism.  It's all inexact, but it's fun to follow... kinda like gmg.com

[wardly]

I don't know of a single business,university, or fire department that doesn't compare their performance to peers. That is what a ranking system is for. To write it off as meaningless is to ignore the obvious; we are not recruiting well. How has "leave it to the coaches" worked for us the last three hires? We are getting our butt kicked . Look at the other D1 offers, or lack thereof , our commitments have received. We have a 2 star tight end change directions because he doesn't want to add 50 lbs. and play guard, which drops us from 9th to 10th in CUSA, and his fall back is ACC. Our coaching staff proved last season that they can coach. So far they have also proved they can't recruit.

[jtm0097]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-pro-bowl-rosters-do-recruiting-star-ratings-actually-predict-nfl-success/amp/

 

Article about pro bowlers and star ratings.

[Quoner]

14 minutes ago, jtm0097 said:

https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-pro-bowl-rosters-do-recruiting-star-ratings-actually-predict-nfl-success/amp/

 

Article about pro bowlers and star ratings.

So everyone here has a point but no one is exactly 100% right? Cool. Looking forward to everyone shaking hands and moving forward amicably. Thanks for posting!

[Censored by Laurie]

10 minutes ago, Quoner said:

So everyone here has a point but no one is exactly 100% right? Cool. Looking forward to everyone shaking hands and moving forward amicably. Thanks for posting!

tough to shake hands when everyone's are so full with participation trophies.

these threads a meant to determine winners and losers. 

[UNT Mean Green]

15 hours ago, wardly said:

I don't know of a single business,university, or fire department that doesn't compare their performance to peers. That is what a ranking system is for. To write it off as meaningless is to ignore the obvious; we are not recruiting well. How has "leave it to the coaches" worked for us the last three hires? We are getting our butt kicked . Look at the other D1 offers, or lack thereof , our commitments have received. We have a 2 star tight end change directions because he doesn't want to add 50 lbs. and play guard, which drops us from 9th to 10th in CUSA, and his fall back is ACC. Our coaching staff proved last season that they can coach. So far they have also proved they can't recruit.

Based on what?

[MeanGreenZen]

On 1/4/2017 at 7:46 PM, shaft said:

Now for a bit of trolling...Riley Dodge was a four star recruit.

And Riley Dodge was a pretty darn good QB when he wasn't hurt, which ended up being all the time.