MGB: Recruiting state of the union -- it's too early to panic

Cerebus · December 14, 2016

10 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

Civilly, the highlighted portion of your post is bullshit. Higher rated classes produce more than lower rated classes. Success on the field goes in direct correlation with success in recruiting. The wait 5 years to judge a class is grossly mistated around here. It's that way because we've sucked the male reproductive organ for years in that area and beaten down UNT fans don't know what else to say except for your highlighted bullshit above.

In now way shape or form is that civil. Clean it up.

UNTLifer · December 15, 2016

6 hours ago, keith said:

Actually, I suspect that most here (maybe all) understand that a high rated recruiting class is, everything else being equal, better than a lower rated recruiting class. I don't think that's the point. We'd all love to see a recruiting class full of 4-star and 3-star recruits (maybe even throw in an occasional 5-star). Our classes are usually filled with 2-star (or unrated) recruits with a light sprinkling of 3-star recruits. It's been that way for 30+ years through multiple coaching staffs. The question is why?

I fully understand that higher rated classes will produce better results, but I think I also understand our situation.

Here's my take. In all honestly, since Odus Mitchell retired our HC position has been a carousel. Fry looked like a keeper, and probably would have stayed but we weren't invited to the SWC, so off he went. After that it was a drop down to 1AA, bad hires, hires that came at the wrong time (Nelson), more bad hires, a disgruntled coach that didn't get along with the AD, a couple of bad HS hires, etc... My comment on Corky Nelson being hired at the wrong time is just an opinion, but I would love to see what he could have done with a supportive administration and the facilities we have today.

Long story short, this has just been an unstable department for years getting by with the bare minimum. IF...IF, Littrell will stay for a couple of years, have some continued success, I think this will take off, but people have to see sustained success. We, the alumni, must support the program, the students have to continue to come, the administration has to continue to step up, etc... and eventually people's impressions of us will change. Until then, our staff must convince a few highly rated recruits to take a chance and come to UNT, find the diamonds in the rough, utilize the JUCO system and build the program along the lines of how Snyder did it at KSU.

Again, just my opinion, but we are one year removed from a 1-11 season, improved to 5-7 this year, and we must continue to improve and sustain that improvement over time.

GrandGreen · December 15, 2016

31 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

I fully understand that higher rated classes will produce better results, but I think I also understand our situation.

Here's my take. In all honestly, since Odus Mitchell retired our HC position has been a carousel. Fry looked like a keeper, and probably would have stayed but we weren't invited to the SWC, so off he went. After that it was a drop down to 1AA, bad hires, hires that came at the wrong time (Nelson), more bad hires, a disgruntled coach that didn't get along with the AD, a couple of bad HS hires, etc... My comment on Corky Nelson being hired at the wrong time is just an opinion, but I would love to see what he could have done with a supportive administration and the facilities we have today.

Long story short, this has just been an unstable department for years getting by with the bare minimum. IF...IF, Littrell will stay for a couple of years, have some continued success, I think this will take off, but people have to see sustained success. We, the alumni, must support the program, the students have to continue to come, the administration has to continue to step up, etc... and eventually people's impressions of us will change. Until then, our staff must convince a few highly rated recruits to take a chance and come to UNT, find the diamonds in the rough, utilize the JUCO system and build the program along the lines of how Snyder did it at KSU.

Again, just my opinion, but we are one year removed from a 1-11 season, improved to 5-7 this year, and we must continue to improve and sustain that improvement over time.

While I agree with much of your analysis, I think it is time to jettison the past as an excuse. A lot of NT's CUSA competition didn't even have high level college football when most of that history you mentioned occurred. Frankly, most high school recruits know little about NT other than they are a low level FB division program;.

At this point, NT doesn't have to compete above the CUSA level and I can't think of any school in the Western Division that should have an overall recruiting advantage.

IMO, there is no reason other than the salesmanship of the recruiting staff that NT doesn't do well in recruiting versus CUSA. Not saying that the current staff won't do well, but it is time for improvement not excuses.

UNT90 · December 15, 2016

8 hours ago, keith said:

Actually, I suspect that most here (maybe all) understand that a high rated recruiting class is, everything else being equal, better than a lower rated recruiting class. I don't think that's the point. We'd all love to see a recruiting class full of 4-star and 3-star recruits (maybe even throw in an occasional 5-star). Our classes are usually filled with 2-star (or unrated) recruits with a light sprinkling of 3-star recruits. It's been that way for 30+ years through multiple coaching staffs. The question is why?

The answer is UNT never cared about football. They never hired and paid really good assistants. The good ones that were here left for better jobs. And fans never held anyone accountable. For anything. Terrible culture.

A lack of commitment by the university showed in recruiting. Has that changed? Maybe. If Littrell doesn't have a good class and there are no changes to his staff, we will know it's the same old same old at UNT.

Let's all hope Littrell and staff sign five 4 star recruits on Feb. 1

GMG24 · December 15, 2016

23 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

A lack of commitment by the university showed in recruiting. Has that changed? Maybe. If Littrell doesn't have a good class and there are no changes to his staff, we will know it's the same old same old at UNT.

Let's all hope Littrell and staff sign five 4 star recruits on Feb. 1

What?? You can't be serious?

Army of Dad · December 15, 2016

4 minutes ago, GMG24 said:

What?? You can't be serious?

You don't want 4 star recruits?

Of course, more than one would be huge for a team in this conference...

UNTLifer · December 15, 2016

2 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

While I agree with much of your analysis, I think it is time to jettison the past as an excuse. A lot of NT's CUSA competition didn't even have high level college football when most of that history you mentioned occurred. Frankly, most high school recruits know little about NT other than they are a low level FB division program;.

At this point, NT doesn't have to compete above the CUSA level and I can't think of any school in the Western Division that should have an overall recruiting advantage.

IMO, there is no reason other than the salesmanship of the recruiting staff that NT doesn't do well in recruiting versus CUSA. Not saying that the current staff won't do well, but it is time for improvement not excuses.

I agree 100%. My post was really in reply to the last 3 sentences of keith's post.

GMG24 · December 15, 2016

2 hours ago, Army of Dad said:

You don't want 4 star recruits?

Of course, more than one would be huge for a team in this conference...

Man I'd love all 4 stars lol I'm also a realist and know the kids we can pull from HS.

UNT90 · December 15, 2016

12 hours ago, GMG24 said:

What?? You can't be serious?

Of course I'm serious. One of the most important jobs of assistant coaches is recruiting. It is the lifeblood that allows a program success. Fail there, and you fail on the field. If you can't recruit to UNT, you don't need to be coaching at UNT.

Edited December 15, 2016 by UNT90

GMG24 · December 15, 2016

3 hours ago, UNT90 said:

Of course I'm serious. One of the most important jobs of assistant coaches is recruiting. It is the lifeblood that allows a program success. Fail there, and you fail on the field. If you can't recruit to UNT, you don't need to be coaching at UNT.

Littrell won with Mac's failed kids who didn't particularly fit his system, so why couldn't he win if his classes "Failed"? He is recruiting some playmakers a la TCU when they started back in the day. Just get the athletes and find a spot.

UNT90 · December 15, 2016

17 minutes ago, GMG24 said:

Littrell won with Mac's failed kids who didn't particularly fit his system, so why couldn't he win if his classes "Failed"? He is recruiting some playmakers a la TCU when they started back in the day. Just get the athletes and find a spot.

I wouldn't call 5-7 "winning," although I would call it working some magic. Coaching isn't recruiting. You have to do both at the college level.

Still a ways to February 1, but concern is warranted. I'd love for him to recruit like TCU, but that hasn't happened so far with this class.

GMG24 · December 15, 2016

16 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

I wouldn't call 5-7 "winning," although I would call it working some magic. Coaching isn't recruiting. You have to do both at the college level.

Still a ways to February 1, but concern is warranted. I'd love for him to recruit like TCU, but that hasn't happened so far with this class.

No doubt, but he won 4 more than the previous year. Progress and lots of it. Still a long way to go but on the right track. Time for some Crootin'

Monkeypox · December 15, 2016

Mac went 5-7 in his first year, too. Even won a bowl game by his 3rd year. By year 5, he was 0-fer, including the worst loss in the history of ever, and lost his job.

Cerebus · December 15, 2016

12 minutes ago, Monkeypox said:

Mac went 5-7 in his first year, too.

I've seen several people bring this up. Yes, he did go 5-7 his first year, but the team he took over went 3-9 the previous year (with 5 of those loses being by less than a TD). The team he took over hadn't got blown out by an FCS. The team he took over wasn't almost at FCS level in scholarship count.

Those 18 missing scholarships are the reason I was inspecting a second half down turn. On the board I posted after the Army game that i only gave us a 40% chance of making a bowl game.

As the season goes on a lot of people get dinged. If you have depth, you can sit down your starter when he is only at 80% because his backup can be as effective as him at that point, and it gives the starter time to heal.

What happened here is because of the lack of depth, at several spots when the starter was dinged up and at 80%, he had to play anyway, got more dinged up and fell to 60%... and STILL had to play because no one behind him was as effective as he was at 60%.

So, with what more or less was a very good FCS team, SL and his staff managed to get five wins. That deserves respect. They can coach, now they need to prove they can recruit. They won't win here unless they can.

Monkeypox · December 15, 2016

I'm impressed that we've gotten 5 wins from mostly the same team that lost 11 games last year. But one year is one year. I've seen 5-7. They can MAYBE coach. They've done a good job this year. They get the benefit of the doubt. If I'm looking at them with the same lens, then I have to say that Mac could also coach. After all, he owns half of our bowl wins, getting us one in our first year in CUSA. So what did him in? What made an extension after that bowl win a bad idea?

9 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

They can coach, now they need to prove they can recruit. They won't win here unless they can.

And that's the point. In the long run, going 5-7 doesn't matter. I've seen it before. I know how it ends with bottom tier recruiting classes.

Cerebus · December 15, 2016

Just now, Monkeypox said:

And that's the point. In the long run, going 5-7 doesn't matter. I've seen it before. I know how it ends with bottom tier recruiting classes.

5-7 does not equal every other 5-7. A 5-7 result after we played only SEC teams would be amazing, 5-7 after we only played FCS teams would be terrible.

I agree that you can't win consistently without good recruiting. I don't agree that Mac's 5-7 first year is any where near as impressive as SL's 5-7 first year. Mac took over a much better team.

Monkeypox · December 15, 2016

I don't consider either impressive. And both will be meaningless in the long run if we don't recruit better.

Cerebus · December 15, 2016

3 minutes ago, Monkeypox said:

I don't consider either impressive. And both will be meaningless in the long run if we don't recruit better.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I was expecting one, maybe two wins this year. Winning five was well above my expectations and impressed me.

UTSA Fan · December 15, 2016

On Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 11:26 AM, Ben Gooding said:

Haha, no. Not at a meddling G5.

That applies to actual stars that roam campuses. Like Mayfield at OU, Lamar at Louisville or McCaffery at Standford.

Your context is wrong, haha. I'm talking about high school kids with high school experiences guiding their perspective. They don't have experience or differentiation between one or the other. They are the boss now and they see the world from that perspective. They don't think, damn, it's a g5 so my roll is going to slow, so I'm going to have to supplement with a good band and a long school history.

BillySee58 · December 16, 2016

7 hours ago, Cerebus said:

I've seen several people bring this up. Yes, he did go 5-7 his first year, but the team he took over went 3-9 the previous year (with 5 of those loses being by less than a TD). The team he took over hadn't got blown out by an FCS. The team he took over wasn't almost at FCS level in scholarship count.

Those 18 missing scholarships are the reason I was inspecting a second half down turn. On the board I posted after the Army game that i only gave us a 40% chance of making a bowl game.

As the season goes on a lot of people get dinged. If you have depth, you can sit down your starter when he is only at 80% because his backup can be as effective as him at that point, and it gives the starter time to heal.

What happened here is because of the lack of depth, at several spots when the starter was dinged up and at 80%, he had to play anyway, got more dinged up and fell to 60%... and STILL had to play because no one behind him was as effective as he was at 60%.

So, with what more or less was a very good FCS team, SL and his staff managed to get five wins. That deserves respect. They can coach, now they need to prove they can recruit. They won't win here unless they can.

Oh God, do we now have a football version of people comparing Benford's first four years to Johnny Jones' first four years?

greenminer · December 16, 2016

Not gonna excuse a bad class of recruits, but even if Litrell's can't prove himself on the recruiting trails, he will - at the very least - see us get back to full scholly numbers, right? That means something, right?

UNT90 · December 16, 2016

On December 14, 2016 at 7:28 PM, GrandGreen said:

While I agree with much of your analysis, I think it is time to jettison the past as an excuse. A lot of NT's CUSA competition didn't even have high level college football when most of that history you mentioned occurred. Frankly, most high school recruits know little about NT other than they are a low level FB division program;.

At this point, NT doesn't have to compete above the CUSA level and I can't think of any school in the Western Division that should have an overall recruiting advantage.

IMO, there is no reason other than the salesmanship of the recruiting staff that NT doesn't do well in recruiting versus CUSA. Not saying that the current staff won't do well, but it is time for improvement not excuses.

WKU was terrible when they first moved up. I believe they went 0-12 and 1-11 in back to back years. They were the laughing stock of FBS football. They were North Texas's lone win in the 2008 season.

They are now a power in CUSA.

Using the past as an excuse is an AWFUL practice this fan base uses over and over again to forgive current recruiting.

Just maddening, especially when there is example after example of schools out there who faced MUCH tougher circumstances and turned their program around.

The right people have NEVER been in place. Are they now? Time will tell.

EDIT: Actually. WKU's record in 2008, 2009, and 2010 was 2-10, 0-12, and 2-10.

Edited December 16, 2016 by UNT90

Cerebus · December 16, 2016

12 hours ago, greenminer said:

Not gonna excuse a bad class of recruits, but even if Litrell's can't prove himself on the recruiting trails, he will - at the very least - see us get back to full scholly numbers, right? That means something, right?

You can sign 25 a class. So we'll add (25 - Number of Scholarship Seniors) to the total. It will take a few seasons to get to full strength.

Caw Caw · December 16, 2016

46 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

You can sign 25 a class. So we'll add 25 - (Number of Scholarship Seniors + Attrition like Goree) to the total. It will take a few seasons to get to full strength.

FTFY

Edited December 16, 2016 by Caw Caw

MGNation92 · December 16, 2016

4 hours ago, Cerebus said:

You can sign 25 a class. So we'll add (25 - Number of Scholarship Seniors) to the total. It will take a few seasons to get to full strength.

dont the blueshirts count against the 2017 class? or the 2016 class