Games to Watch. Magic Number to a Bowl Game

[shaft]

Let's see if I have this right.  There are 80 bowl slots, 64 are filled.  There are 18 teams in the hunt for the 16 remaining bowl slots. So there are two ways for us to make it to a Bowl game.

Option 1: Beat UTEP and a have two teams from the group below lose.

Option 2: Get on APR and have three of teams from the group below lose.

Games to watch

• American (1): Navy @ SMU ,  
• ACC (2): NC State @ North Carolina, Boston College @ Wake Forest
• Big Ten (3): Purdue @ Indiana, Rutgers @ Maryland,  ILL@ Northwestern
• Big 12 (2): TCU* @ Texas
• Conference USA (3):Char @ UTSA, North Texas @ UTEP, LA Tech @ USM
• Independent (1): Army @ Navy
• MAC (2): Ball State @ Miami (OH), Akron @ Ohio
• Mountain West (0): 
• Pac-12 (1): Arizona St.  @ Arizona
• SEC (2): Tenn @ Vanderbilt, Miss State @ Ole Miss
• Sun Belt (1): USA* @ Idaho

* Have one more week of games

Edited November 23, 2016 by shaft

[TreeFiddy]

Win and we are in, correct?  CUSA has 6 bowl tie ins and we are looking at a max of 7 teams qualifying via 6 wins.  If we win, I would think we hold a tie breaker over usm (unless the choice is up to the bowl). 

 

[shaft]

Akron loses,  Miami-Ohio wins.

65 bowl slots filled, 16 teams still in the hunt for 15 remaining slots.

Magic Number is 2

 

 

[THOR]

How many of those remaining games are before we play?

[Cerebus]

Yup. This is why I said we had a 98% chance last Sunday, even if we lost against UTEP. 

It would take an incredibly unlucky weekend for us not to be in an APR slot.

Still... Let's beat those miners.

[golfingomez]

so TCU needs to be un-bolded right now, as they would need to lose two games to be out of contention. seems hard that all those teams would win... 

 

let's just beat UTEP and go bowling.

 

GMG!!!

[PlummMeanGreen]

When we beat UTEP, what worst possible scenario could keep us from getting a bowl?

[greenminer]

10 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

When we beat UTEP, what worst possible scenario could keep us from getting a bowl?

If we beat UTEP, there is no scenario where we don't go bowling.

[Cerebus]

26 minutes ago, golfingomez said:

so TCU needs to be un-bolded right now, as they would need to lose two games to be out of contention. seems hard that all those teams would win... 

Same for USA.  They have two games left, that's why I starred them when I created that list.  

[PlummMeanGreen]

59 minutes ago, greenminer said:

If we beat UTEP, there is no scenario where we don't go bowling.

Thanks greenminer!?

 

[shaft]

2 hours ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

When we beat UTEP, what worst possible scenario could keep us from getting a bowl?

The worst case scenario is all of the 16 teams contending the 15 slots win and there are 81 bowl eligible teams, and we are the 7th CUSA bowl team.

I just don't see Army over Navy, Vandy over Tenn, NC State over North Carolina, or Southern Miss over LA Tech.

 

 

[greenjoe]

Hmmm...so winning solves all these problems ? 

Beat UTEP

GO MEAN GREEN

[shaft]

 

Option 1:  The Magic Number is 2.  UNT win and a UTSA or USM loss guarantee a bowl slot.

Option 2: The Magic Number 8.  Eight loses from the bowl bubble group this week guarantees we get in on APR.  The real number is 5, but 3 teams have games next week. 

[shaft]

The APR Bubble Teams magic numbers. (Losses needed to the group of 16 bubble teams over the next two weeks).

Northwestern - 5, Vandy - 6, Army - 7, UNT - 8

[shaft]

NC State over UNC

Bowl Slots: 14

Bubble Teams: 15

Magic Number.  Wins - 1 & Losses - 1 or Losses - 8

[shaft]

TCU over Texas

Bowl Slots: 13

Bubble Teams: 13

Magic Number.  Wins - 1  or Losses - 7

Edited November 26, 2016 by shaft

[shaft]

Southern Miss over LA Tech

Bowl Slots: 12

Bubble Teams: 12

Magic Number.  Wins - 1  or Losses - 7

USM becomes CUSA's 5th bowl eligible team.

[Cerebus]

If Arizona State loses tonight, we're in a bowl game.

[shaft]

22 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

If Arizona State loses tonight, we're in a bowl game.

Almost.  We would still need Duke, Army and one more bubble team other than Northwestern to lose.  We also have to keep an eye on UL-L who can still become bowl eligible.  We're really close, but were not the mathematically impossible space to keep us out.

[Cerebus]

15 minutes ago, shaft said:

Almost.  We would still need Duke, Army and one more bubble team other than Northwestern to lose.  We also have to keep an eye on UL-L who can still become bowl eligible.  We're really close, but were not the mathematically impossible space to keep us out.

I completely forgot ULL had only played 10.    We need two more teams to lose.  

 

ETA: We need two out of BC, Indiana, Maryland, UTSA, Hawaii, Arizona St, Ole Miss and ULL to lose.

[Mean Green Eagle]

Arizona St. lost and will drop to 5-7. 

[shaft]

AZ over ASU

Open Bowl spots: 12

Bubble Teams: 11

That means we start Saturday morning with one APR getting a bowl (assuming ULL doesn't run the table and USA wins next week)

Magic Number: 1 Win or 4 key losses or 6 losses from the bubble group.

[shaft]

UTEP over UNT: So we have to get on APR

Miami over Duke: Key loss.  Moves us to APR slot #4

Boston College over Wake: Takes a Bowl Slot

Navy crushes SMU: Eliminates a Bubble Team

Indiana over Purdue: Takes a Bowl Slot

Maryland over Rutgers: Takes a Bowl Slot

Northwestern over Illinois: Takes a Bowl Slot, Moves us to APR slot #3

Miss St over Ole Miss: Eliminates a Bubble Team

Idaho over USA: No Impact on Bubble Teams

ULL over Ark St: Adds a Bubble Team

Open Bowl Slots: 8

Bubble Teams: 5

That should be enough to give UNT an APR bowl spot.

[shaft]

UTSA over Charlotte

Open Bowl Slots: 7

Bubble Teams: 4

CUSA get's it 6th bowl eligible team.

[shaft]

Vandy over Tenn (wow, what an upset!)

Open Bowl Slots: 6

Bubble Teams: 4 (Hawaii, Army USA, ULL)

APR: UNT moves up to slot #2 behind Army

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by shaft