Recruiting Prediction

TheReal_jayD · November 9, 2016

In Two and a half weeks recruiting takes off in full speed. I believe by NSD we end up with a Top Six C-USA Recruiting class. Just a gut feeling I have. I know I have been harsh on the staff and there recruiting so far this 2017 class. But the more I talk to people and gather info. The better I am feeling about this classes potential.

MGNation92 · November 9, 2016

Littrell and staff must be doing some serious ninja recruiting for you to flip your tone like that

Withers940 · November 10, 2016

I agree with you @TheReal_jayD

This Staff made something out of nothing in about a month and they have had a full recruiting year to talk and offer players. I feel Littrell is the ultimate Ninja Warrior

BTG_Fan1 · November 10, 2016

Any idea on why the slow flow of incoming recruits?

GMG_Dallas · November 10, 2016

15 minutes ago, BTG_Fan1 said:

Any idea on why the slow flow of incoming recruits?

Has it really been slow though? With Sanders from Tyler Lee comitting tonight we have 11 recruits. More Then UTEP, LaTech, and Marshall. The same as UAB and ODU. Charlotte has 12 and Rice and MTSU have 14 each. UTSA has 21, the most in our conference with WKU second at 19. Most teams in our conference have between 11 and 14 right now with southern miss and FIU at 17 each to give you a full count of commits throughout our conference. People on this board have made it sound slow because we're trying to compare ourselves to UTSA because of a few basic similarities (new first time head coach and texas school). We are right there with the rest of conference usa in terms of numbers. We just need to get some more quality guys comitted.

BTG_Fan1 · November 10, 2016

Just now, GMG_Dallas said:

Has it really been slow though? With Sanders from Tyler Lee comitting tonight we have 11 recruits. More Then UTEP, LaTech, and Marshall. The same as UAB and ODU. Charlotte has 12 and Rice and MTSU have 14 each. UTSA has 21, the most in our conference with WKU second at 19. Most teams in our conference have between 11 and 14 right now with southern miss and FIU at 17 each to give you a full count of commits throughout our conference. People on this board have made it sound slow because we're trying to compare ourselves to UTSA because of a few basic similarities (new first time head coach and texas school). We are right there with the rest of conference usa in terms of numbers. We just need to get some more quality guys comitted.

I need to go back and look, didn't feel like we are at 11.. If thats correct, then i take it back.. I'll be impressed, but its funny how different it seems now after the Donovan thing that has happened recently

GMG_Dallas · November 10, 2016

13 minutes ago, BTG_Fan1 said:

I need to go back and look, didn't feel like we are at 11.. If thats correct, then i take it back.. I'll be impressed, but its funny how different it seems now after the Donovan thing that has happened recently

Per 247, we are at 10 but like I said, just got a commitment tonight.

I agree things seemed odd due to Donovan. I think the reason why is we get sucked in by star ratings, even though people say they don't matter as much as the number of offers a kid has, so we see our highest 247 rated recruit decommit for uncertain reasons and it makes us question the staff and if they're doing a good job. I think the staff pushed him away, although just my opinion, so I'm not too worried.

Really things can change so dramatically as teams around the country get desperate to sign full classes and as recruits realize their offer list is as good as it'll get for them so they need to hurry up and find a home that we really should wait until NSD before judging classes. Hopefully ours turns out better than expected!

Edited November 10, 2016 by GMG_Dallas

TheReal_jayD · November 10, 2016

7 hours ago, MGNation92 said:

Littrell and staff must be doing some serious ninja recruiting for you to flip your tone like that

2 commits tonight!!!!

BTG_Fan1 · November 10, 2016

Where do these kids rank in the class?

TheReal_jayD · November 10, 2016

3 minutes ago, BTG_Fan1 said:

Where do these kids rank in the class?

247 has them both near the bottom. But i would class Kody as under the radar. and makyle as solid safety recruit

Withers940 · November 10, 2016

Honestly Stars don't mean Crap but it's about what you do with the talent.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Withers940

GrandGreen · November 10, 2016

2 minutes ago, Withers940 said:

Honestly Stars don't mean Crap but it's about what you do with the talent.

See you are joining the chorus of a string of unsuccessful NT coaches.

GMG24 · November 10, 2016

19 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

See you are joining the chorus of a string of unsuccessful NT coaches.

Stars no, offer lists yes.

Withers940 · November 10, 2016

10 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

See you are joining the chorus of a string of unsuccessful NT coaches.

Let me introduce to you a list of NFL stars that were lowly rated coming out of high school. Stars are just a bullshit rating system. Texas cant seem to figure out what to do with 4 & 5 stars.

Tony Romo QB- ZERO - Second-team All-Pro (2014), 4x Pro Bowl

Victor Cruz WR- TWO Stars- Second-team All-Pro (2011), Pro Bowl (2012)

Jordy Nelson WR- TWO Stars- Second-team All-Pro (2014), Pro Bowl (2014)

Chris Johnson RB- TWO Stars- All-Pro (2009), 3x Pro Bowl

Alfred Morris RB- TWO Stars - Second-team All-Pro (2012), 2x Pro Bowl

Julius Thomas TE- ZERO - 2x Pro Bowler

Joe Staley OL- TWO Stars - First-team All-Pro (2013), 2x second-team All-Pro, 4x Pro Bowl

Ryan Clady OL- TWO Stars - 2x first-team All-Pro, second-team All-Pro (2008), 4x Pro Bowl

DeMarcus Ware DE- ZERO - NFC Defensive Player of the Year (2008), 4x first team All-Pro, 3x second team All-Pro, 8x Pro Bowler

JJ WATT DE- TWO Stars- 2x NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 3x first team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowler

Bobby Wagner LB -TWO Stars- First team All-Pro (2014), Pro Bowler (2014)

ED REED S- ZERO - 2004 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 8x All-Pro, 9x Pro Bowler

WOW, thats a pretty good list. How about our very own that are in the NFL right now so we can bring it closer to home?

Lance Dunbar- Dallas Cowboys- ZERO

Zach Orr- Ravens-Two Star

Craig Robertson- Saints- Two Stars

Jamize Olawale- Raiders- Two Stars

GrandGreen · November 10, 2016

2 minutes ago, Withers940 said:

Let me introduce to you a list of NFL stars that were lowly rated coming out of high school. Stars are just a bullshit rating system. Texas cant seem to figure out what to do with 4 & 5 stars.

Tony Romo QB- ZERO - Second-team All-Pro (2014), 4x Pro Bowl

Victor Cruz WR- TWO Stars- Second-team All-Pro (2011), Pro Bowl (2012)

Jordy Nelson WR- TWO Stars- Second-team All-Pro (2014), Pro Bowl (2014)

Chris Johnson RB- TWO Stars- All-Pro (2009), 3x Pro Bowl

Alfred Morris RB- TWO Stars - Second-team All-Pro (2012), 2x Pro Bowl

Julius Thomas TE- ZERO - 2x Pro Bowler

Joe Staley OL- TWO Stars - First-team All-Pro (2013), 2x second-team All-Pro, 4x Pro Bowl

Ryan Clady OL- TWO Stars - 2x first-team All-Pro, second-team All-Pro (2008), 4x Pro Bowl

DeMarcus Ware DE- ZERO - NFC Defensive Player of the Year (2008), 4x first team All-Pro, 3x second team All-Pro, 8x Pro Bowler

JJ WATT DE- TWO Stars- 2x NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 3x first team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowler

Bobby Wagner LB -TWO Stars- First team All-Pro (2014), Pro Bowler (2014)

ED REED S- ZERO - 2004 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 8x All-Pro, 9x Pro Bowler

WOW, thats a pretty good list. How about our very own that are in the NFL right now so we can bring it closer to home?

Lance Dunbar- Dallas Cowboys- ZERO

Zach Orr- Ravens-Two Star

Craig Robertson- Saints- Two Stars

Jamize Olawale- Raiders- Two Stars

Not sure what your point is. Ratings are about probability not certainty. Anyone can make a very long list of great players who were under-recruited, as well as highly rated players who were flops. This proves absolutely nothing, the undeniable fact is there is a strong correlation between recruiting rankings and success on the field.

You can have success with veteran teams such as McCarney's one winning NT season. Good players that have played together that can have a good year without any highly rated classes, but that is almost impossible to maintain on a long term basis. Dickeys string of Belt championships was actually spawned out of "one" great for NT recruiting class.

Ignore the obvious if it makes you feel better. Poor rated recruiting almost always leads to losing seasons.

Withers940 · November 10, 2016

32 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

Not sure what your point is. Ratings are about probability not certainty. Anyone can make a very long list of great players who were under-recruited, as well as highly rated players who were flops. This proves absolutely nothing, the undeniable fact is there is a strong correlation between recruiting rankings and success on the field.

You can have success with veteran teams such as McCarney's one winning NT season. Good players that have played together that can have a good year without any highly rated classes, but that is almost impossible to maintain on a long term basis. Dickeys string of Belt championships was actually spawned out of "one" great for NT recruiting class.

Ignore the obvious if it makes you feel better. Poor rated recruiting almost always leads to losing seasons.

Your right, one good year can be played without several Highly rated classes. My argument is that star for individual players dont mean a hill of beans but I believe the right coaches can drain every little bit of talent of a kid. If a coach, that can actually coach sticks around he can make several par classes into .500 football or better. Look at what Rod Marinelli. He doesnt have shit to work with but he has one of the best defenses in the league this year because he can coach.

A stud class doesnt always lead to the field. I mentioned it earlier that Texas is the Cadillac of recruiting but they cant turn it into wins lately.

Year National Rank Conf Rank Record

2010 2 1

2011 4 1 8-5

2012 2 1 9-4

2013 17 2 8-5

2014 16 2 6-7

2015 10 1 5-7

2016 7 1 Currently 5-4

GrandGreen · November 10, 2016

2 hours ago, Withers940 said:

Your right, one good year can be played without several Highly rated classes. My argument is that star for individual players dont mean a hill of beans but I believe the right coaches can drain every little bit of talent of a kid. If a coach, that can actually coach sticks around he can make several par classes into .500 football or better. Look at what Rod Marinelli. He doesnt have shit to work with but he has one of the best defenses in the league this year because he can coach.

A stud class doesnt always lead to the field. I mentioned it earlier that Texas is the Cadillac of recruiting but they cant turn it into wins lately.

Year           National Rank                Conf Rank                 Record

2010                 2                                      1

2011                 4                                      1                           8-5

2012                 2                                      1                           9-4

2013                 17                                    2                           8-5

2014                 16                                   2                           6-7

2015                 10                                   1                           5-7

2016                 7                                    1                         Currently 5-4

I think it is a lot easier for questionable coaches to lose with good talent than the reverse.

Withers940 · November 10, 2016

1 hour ago, GrandGreen said:

I think it is a lot easier for questionable coaches to lose with good talent than the reverse.

I think its easier to look at a glass thats 50% full and say "This glass is half empty" than saying " This glass is half full"

Graddean · November 10, 2016

What about Mack Brown? He won and lost with highly rated talent

Cerebus · November 11, 2016

11 hours ago, Withers940 said:

Let me introduce to you a list of NFL stars that were lowly rated coming out of high school.

I would counter your argument by posting all the names of the lowly rated recruits who never even cracked a G5 two deep, but I don't have the spare time to copy and past 20 or 30 thousands names.

It's a numbers game. Statistically, higher rated recruits pan out at a much better rate. You can have exceptions to that, but mathematically you have a much better chance at winning if you recruit higher rated recruits. They will simply pan out at a better rate.

Ben Gooding · November 11, 2016

11 hours ago, Withers940 said:

Let me introduce to you a list of NFL stars that were lowly rated coming out of high school. Stars are just a bullshit rating system. Texas cant seem to figure out what to do with 4 & 5 stars.

Tony Romo QB- ZERO - Second-team All-Pro (2014), 4x Pro Bowl

Victor Cruz WR- TWO Stars- Second-team All-Pro (2011), Pro Bowl (2012)

Jordy Nelson WR- TWO Stars- Second-team All-Pro (2014), Pro Bowl (2014)

Chris Johnson RB- TWO Stars- All-Pro (2009), 3x Pro Bowl

Alfred Morris RB- TWO Stars - Second-team All-Pro (2012), 2x Pro Bowl

Julius Thomas TE- ZERO - 2x Pro Bowler

Joe Staley OL- TWO Stars - First-team All-Pro (2013), 2x second-team All-Pro, 4x Pro Bowl

Ryan Clady OL- TWO Stars - 2x first-team All-Pro, second-team All-Pro (2008), 4x Pro Bowl

DeMarcus Ware DE- ZERO - NFC Defensive Player of the Year (2008), 4x first team All-Pro, 3x second team All-Pro, 8x Pro Bowler

JJ WATT DE- TWO Stars- 2x NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 3x first team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowler

Bobby Wagner LB -TWO Stars- First team All-Pro (2014), Pro Bowler (2014)

ED REED S- ZERO - 2004 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 8x All-Pro, 9x Pro Bowler

WOW, thats a pretty good list. How about our very own that are in the NFL right now so we can bring it closer to home?

Lance Dunbar- Dallas Cowboys- ZERO

Zach Orr- Ravens-Two Star

Craig Robertson- Saints- Two Stars

Jamize Olawale- Raiders- Two Stars

You introduced us to abunch of exceptions. For every one of those, there are 100 3+ star HS recruits in the NFL.

Withers940 · November 11, 2016

13 hours ago, Cerebus said:

I would counter your argument by posting all the names of the lowly rated recruits who never even cracked a G5 two deep, but I don't have the spare time to copy and past 20 or 30 thousands names.

It's a numbers game. Statistically, higher rated recruits pan out at a much better rate. You can have exceptions to that, but mathematically you have a much better chance at winning if you recruit higher rated recruits. They will simply pan out at a better rate.

12 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

You introduced us to abunch of exceptions. For every one of those, there are 100 3+ star HS recruits in the NFL.

My whole argument was that Stars dont always mean they are going to be a great player.

GMG_Dallas · November 11, 2016

10 minutes ago, Withers940 said:

My whole argument was that Stars dont always mean they are going to be a great player.

We have had several 3 star players (per ESPN) in the past few years not pan out, several of which are not even on the team anymore. Fonzale Davis and Jalen Adams both come to mind who have left the team. Connor Means was also a 3 star per ESPN. All class of 2014 .

Withers940 · November 11, 2016

48 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

We have had several 3 star players (per ESPN) in the past few years not pan out, several of which are not even on the team anymore. Fonzale Davis and Jalen Adams both come to mind who have left the team. Connor Means was also a 3 star per ESPN. All class of 2014 .

I know, thats part of the argument. Just like Bama, Texas and Ohio State has had 4 & 5 star players not work out. Of course they hit more times than not but you know where Im getting at?

GMG_Dallas · November 11, 2016

1 hour ago, Withers940 said:

I know, thats part of the argument. Just like Bama, Texas and Ohio State has had 4 & 5 star players not work out. Of course they hit more times than not but you know where Im getting at?

Yes I agree with you.