Bowl and APR Situation

[Cerebus]

11/20/2016 Update

First a few definitions.

• A bowl eligible team is one that has six wins, with no more than one of them being against an FCS level team.
• An APR eligible team is one that has five wins, and can file for an APR exemption to a bowl game because of their academic score. 

There are currently 64 bowl eligible teams:

• American (7): Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Temple, Tulsa
• ACC (9): Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
• Big Ten (7): Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
• Big 12 (5): Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
• Conference USA (4): Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky
• Independent (1): BYU
• MAC (5): Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
• Mountain West (6): Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Wyoming
• Pac-12 (6): Colorado, Stanford, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State
• SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
• Sun Belt (4): Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Idaho, Troy

 

There are currently 18 teams who are one win away from bowl eligibility:

• American (1): SMU,  
• ACC (2): NC State, Boston College
• Big Ten (3): Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern
• Big 12 (2): TCU*, Texas
• Conference USA (3): UTSA, North Texas, USM
• Independent (1): Army
• MAC (2): Miami (OH), Akron 
• Mountain West (0): 
• Pac-12 (1): Arizona St. 
• SEC (2): Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
• Sun Belt (1): USA*

* TCU and USA have two games left to get to 6 wins.

So the number of bowl eligible teams will be:

(64 currently bowl eligible teams) + ( Whichever of the above 18 teams can get to 6 wins)

Depending on whose projections you believe, that could leave as few as 71 or as many as 75 bowl eligible teams.   Looking at the schedule I think TCU, UTSA, (North Texas), Miami OH, Arizona St, Ole Miss, and South Alabama get there.  That would mean, counting a win at UTEP, there would be 9 APR slots.  

Imagine, instead that we lost @UTEP, and someone else won.  We would be sitting at 5-7, and ranked fourth in APR among schools without 6 wins, but there would be 9 slots for APR teams.   That means even if Duke wins and NW, and Army win and Vandy loses there will still be enough APR slots for us.   In other words barring some major insanity next weekend we are RIGHT NOW assured of a bowl slot. 

I of course would prefer to beat UTEP and get in the old fashioned way, but this is still a big accomplishment.  

 

As far as where we end up, it's more than likely that we end up in one of the CUSA contracted bowls.  We have six slots and there is very little chance we get to 7 bowl eligible teams.  That would require USM beating LaTech.    

In the past CUSA has traded the Hawaii bowl slot to a team in the western half of the country in order to get one of its eastern teams a closer bowl slot.   I don't see that happening this year.  

I don't think the B10 will be able to send a team to the Heart of Dallas bowl, and the B12 will not be able to either.  The SEC has 10 bowl slots, but will put Alabama in the CFP at least.  If Vandy and Ole Miss can become bowl eligible, and Alabama is the only SEC team in the CFP they will have one extra team to place.  Maybe the Heart of Dallas bowl can lure them?  The only real hope I see of the conference having a P5 opponent in that game is if we can convince an ACC team.   That game will go to WKU or LaTech either way.  

Most likely destinations for us then are:

1. New Mexico
2. Hawaii
3. Bahamas 

CUSA champ will want the HoD, New Orleans is a great place to visit, Boca gets you in front of Florida recruits.   

 

[UNT 90 Grad]

Not sure where the definitions above came from.  For the NCAA explanation, see pages 6-7 in this document:  http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2016-17DIFB_Postseason_Bowl_HandbookDocument_20161026.pdf

Pretty close to the same.  

[Cerebus]

3 minutes ago, UNT 90 Grad said:

Not sure where the definitions above came from.

They are my own simplified terms, used for my example.   It was already a long, complex post.  For example I also didn't point out that Army couldn't count the game against Lafayette because Lafayette hadn't met the 90% FCS scholarship grant over a two year rolling period metric because they beat Morgan State, and they did.

I also didn't point out that Hawaii could win it's last game, get to 6-7, and then file for an exception because the APR exception takes precedent over the 13 game 6-7 exception, and they are not above us in APR.  So they can't take a bowl slot away from us.  

[rws69]

Army is a 6-5, but I believe they do not want to count game against Lafayette (FCS) nor fall back on APR; so they need to beat Navy to get in. Looking at top APR teams on the bubble, that leaves Northwestern (remaining game against Illinois, 3-8), Vanderbilt (against Tennessee, 8-3), and UNT (at UTEP, 3-8). I agree that UNT is very likely to get in. 

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

I am hoping for/anticipating the New Mexico Bowl against either New Mexico or Colorado State. Obviously, more than likely would be New Mexico out of those two. That's a tough team this year. I'm all for it, if so. I'll make a trip out of it and hit Sante Fe/Taos and see some of the family while I'm over there. Either way, things are looking good! Just hoping it is not Hawaii or Bahamas. Fun for the players, but both will likely be out of our budget for holiday travel. 

Edited November 20, 2016 by ChristopherRyanWilkes

[Cerebus]

15 hours ago, rws69 said:

Army is a 6-5, but I believe they do not want to count game against Lafayette (FCS) nor fall back on APR; so they need to beat Navy to get in. 

They couldn't use the Lafayette win, they didn't give out enough scholarships.   They got the 5th win they could count when they beat Morgan State.

Vito reported that Army will use the APR exemption.  

 

14 hours ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

 Just hoping it is not Hawaii or Bahamas. Fun for the players, but both will likely be out of our budget for holiday travel. 

The bowl games usually package airfare/hotel deals for the games.  

[vpackrats]

But can we all agree at least that there are too many damn bowl games?  When you have 5-7 teams going (no matter the APR) it really is pretty embarrassing.  There needs to be about 3-4 less bowl games IMO.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

5 minutes ago, vpackrats said:

But can we all agree at least that there are too many damn bowl games?  When you have 5-7 teams going (no matter the APR) it really is pretty embarrassing.  There needs to be about 3-4 less bowl games IMO.

It had decent TV numbers, but the Bahamas bowl had 13k attendance last year... They can start with novelty bowl games like that.

[Mean Green Matt]

On one hand I think there are too many bowls. On the other hand I like all 6-6 teams getting an extra game to try and finish with a winning record and at the same time a couple teams getting rewarded for good academics. 

[Cerebus]

3 hours ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

It had decent TV numbers, but the Bahamas bowl had 13k attendance last year... They can start with novelty bowl games like that.

The Bahamas bowl is owned by ESPN.  It only exists to create something to watch on TV.  If it has decent ratings then it is doing exactly what ESPN created it for.

 

[Cerebus]

Based on FPI, here are the chances of the top APR teams to win their next game:

• Duke: 4-7, 11% chance to beat Miami.  
• Northwestern: 5-6, 87% chance to beat Illinois.
• Vanderbilt: 5-6, 26% chance to beat Tennessee.
• Army: (5)*-5, 27% chance to beat Navy.
• North Texas: 5-6, 59% chance to beat UTEP.

If we lose, the most likely outcome is that Duke has only 4 wins, NW becomes a 6 win team, and Vandy and Army become the first two APR teams.  We would be the third.  

 

[outoftown]

So this all starts already tomorrow with

Akron (5-6) @Ohio (7-4) and Ball State (4-7) @ Miami (OH) (5-6) both at 7pm EST.

 

Friday - forseably - has more games relevant to UNTs bowl situation:

NC State (5-6) @ UNC (8-3), 12pm EST

TCU (5-5) @ Texas (5-6), 3:30 EST.

La Tech (8-3) @ Southern Miss (5-6), 4:00 pm EST.

Zona State (5-6) @ Arizona (2-9), 9:30 pm EST.

 

There is a decent chance we know for sure that UNT will be 100% in before saturday even starts. In any case, its fun to watch other teams play and have stakes on it this late in the season.

Edited November 22, 2016 by outoftown

[Cerebus]

1 hour ago, outoftown said:

There is a decent chance we know for sure that UNT will be 100% in before saturday even starts. In any case, its fun to watch other teams play and have stakes on it this late in the season.

I don't think we'll know for certain where we'll be until the first of next week.  The conference is going to have to talk with all the bowl teams and try to get as many of them to the game they want as possible.   

But yes mathematically we may be close to knowing if we are in for sure or not before out kick off.  Thought to be truthful I put our chances at about 98% right now, without a UTEP win.  

[keith]

13 hours ago, Cerebus said:

I don't think we'll know for certain where we'll be until the first of next week.  The conference is going to have to talk with all the bowl teams and try to get as many of them to the game they want as possible.   

But yes mathematically we may be close to knowing if we are in for sure or not before out kick off.  Thought to be truthful I put our chances at about 98% right now, without a UTEP win.  

So you're saying there is between a 98% and 100% (we win we're in) chance of something good happening to us and a 0% to 2% chance of something bad happening to us.  As a long-time follower of all things North Texas, I'm not sure I like those odds ;-).  

Edited November 22, 2016 by keith

[greeneagle1]

4 hours ago, keith said:

So you're saying there is between a 98% and 100% (we win we're in) chance of something good happening to us and a 0% to 2% chance of something bad happening to us.  As a long-time follower of all things North Texas, I'm not sure I like those odds ;-).  

Hey now! So far things are going well. We got a good hire on Littrell, Rick V got ousted, and we got a good hire in Baker. We also won 4 games when we were not favored to win!

[Cerebus]

It was pointed out to me that the conference had modified the bowl selection rules this year.  

Quote

NOTE: Per conference regulations, all teams with seven or more wins shall be placed into conference bowls prior to any other bowl eligible teams without a winning record (i.e. 6-6 record).

The process, as I understand it now is:

1. Winner of conference championship picks their bowl.
2. Loser of conference championship picks their bowl.
3. Conference works with remaining teams and bowl, giving more weight to those teams with more wins.

In other words the best we can finish this year is 6-6.  That means LaTech, WKU, MTSU and ODU will all pick there bowls before we do.

I think this means the most likely bowl for us is either Bahamas or Hawaii, since the other 4 teams before us will probably not want take either of those.  The team costs will be covered no matter where they go, but not many fans will go to either.  

[Mean Green Matt]

Kind of seems like we get a better bowl if we go in at 5-7 with an APR exemption that way we aren't doomed to the CUSA tie-ins?

[Cerebus]

16 minutes ago, Mean Green Matt said:

Kind of seems like we get a better bowl if we go in at 5-7 with an APR exemption that way we aren't doomed to the CUSA tie-ins?

CUSA will barely have enough teams to fill the bowl slots they have if even if we get in with an APR exception.  They'll want us to fulfill a conference bowl obligation.  

[Mean Green Matt]

29 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

CUSA will barely have enough teams to fill the bowl slots they have if even if we get in with an APR exception.  They'll want us to fulfill a conference bowl obligation.  

But don't slots get filled first with any 6-6 teams and then the spots that are left get allocated to 5-7 teams. Does CUSA control who fills what when it only has a 5-7 team left? 

[Cerebus]

3 minutes ago, Mean Green Matt said:

But don't slots get filled first with any 6-6 teams and then the spots that are left get allocated to 5-7 teams. Does CUSA control who fills what when it only has a 5-7 team left? 

That's actually a good point.   6-6 teams have to go first.  

[Cerebus]

OK let's play a mental exercise.  

• Assume NT and UTSA win this weekend, while USM loses to LaTech.
• Assume LaTech beats WKU in the CUSA champ game.
• CUSA Bowls are:  Boca Raton, Hawaii, New Mexico, Bahamas, New Orleans, HoD.  
• LaTech picks first.
• WKU picks seconds.
• ODU and MTSU pick next, but ODU will probably have one more win.
• North Texas and UTSA pick next, I am not 100% sure head to head plays into selection order.

Then I imagine the picks are:

• LaTech takes HoD.   Only bowl with a shot of a P5 opponent,  plenty of alumni in the area.
• WKU takes Boca, they want to recruit Florida heavily.
• ODU take New Orleans since it is a good destination their fans can travel to, they won't have a historical hangup against playing an SBC school like many CUSA schools will.
• MTSU takes the Hawaii bowl since it will give Stockstill the most time to heal before the game.
• That leaves UTSA and North Texas for New Mexico and Bahamas.
• I am not sure UTSA's head to head win against us will come into play, but I am going to assume it does.
• UTSA takes New Mexico so their fanbase can travel easily.
• North Texas takes Bahamas Bowl.

Thoughts?

 

[tmjerm]

I reeeeeally don't want Bahamas or Hawaii....in fact I wish Bahamas at least was dropped.  It's just not the bowl game experience I feel like we would want.  Crappy attendance and little fanfare.  We are very lucky to have several bowls within decent travel distance and hopefully we get to capitalize on that cause our fanbase could really use the shot in the arm that would provide.  I know there's a pecking order and that it's very likely, but it's not my preference 

[UNT 90 Grad]

33 minutes ago, tmjerm said:

I reeeeeally don't want Bahamas or Hawaii....in fact I wish Bahamas at least was dropped.  It's just not the bowl game experience I feel like we would want.  Crappy attendance and little fanfare.  We are very lucky to have several bowls within decent travel distance and hopefully we get to capitalize on that cause our fanbase could really use the shot in the arm that would provide.  I know there's a pecking order and that it's very likely, but it's not my preference 

Charter a cruise ship?

[shaft]

Teams don't really "pick" their bowls.  The conference, bowl, and network have a big say in the selection/invitation process.  There is a reason the bowl reps visit different teams throughout the season.  Conferences change up their bowl slots all the time to create better match ups and prevent bowl burnout of the same team going to the same bowl year after year. 

Also the question was asked is it better to go 5-7 to go to a non-CUSA bowl.  No, the bowls and conference will trade bowl slots with each other base on input of the teams, bowls, and networks.

 

 

[Cerebus]

45 minutes ago, shaft said:

Teams don't really "pick" their bowls.  The conference, bowl, and network have a big say in the selection/invitation process. 

From what I have been told that is not really how CUSA handles it, especially for the upper teams.  Not saying they don't have a say in it, but the champ isn't going to be sent someplace they don't want to be, especially if they have a strong desire to be one place or another.

Now the bowls do have some pull, but remember that CUSA plays in The Cotton Bowl the stadium, not in The Cotton Bowl the bowl game.