Bowl and APR Situation

Cerebus · November 2, 2016

11/20/2016 Update

First a few definitions.

A bowl eligible team is one that has six wins, with no more than one of them being against an FCS level team.
An APR eligible team is one that has five wins, and can file for an APR exemption to a bowl game because of their academic score.

There are currently 64 bowl eligible teams:

American (7): Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Temple, Tulsa
ACC (9): Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big Ten (7): Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Conference USA (4): Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky
Independent (1): BYU
MAC (5): Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West (6): Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Wyoming
Pac-12 (6): Colorado, Stanford, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State
SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Sun Belt (4): Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Idaho, Troy

There are currently 18 teams who are one win away from bowl eligibility:

American (1): SMU,
ACC (2): NC State, Boston College
Big Ten (3): Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern
Big 12 (2): TCU*, Texas
Conference USA (3): UTSA, North Texas, USM
Independent (1): Army
MAC (2): Miami (OH), Akron
Mountain West (0):
Pac-12 (1): Arizona St.
SEC (2): Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
Sun Belt (1): USA*

* TCU and USA have two games left to get to 6 wins.

So the number of bowl eligible teams will be:

(64 currently bowl eligible teams) + ( Whichever of the above 18 teams can get to 6 wins)

Depending on whose projections you believe, that could leave as few as 71 or as many as 75 bowl eligible teams. Looking at the schedule I think TCU, UTSA, (North Texas), Miami OH, Arizona St, Ole Miss, and South Alabama get there. That would mean, counting a win at UTEP, there would be 9 APR slots.

Imagine, instead that we lost @UTEP, and someone else won. We would be sitting at 5-7, and ranked fourth in APR among schools without 6 wins, but there would be 9 slots for APR teams. That means even if Duke wins and NW, and Army win and Vandy loses there will still be enough APR slots for us. In other words barring some major insanity next weekend we are RIGHT NOW assured of a bowl slot.

I of course would prefer to beat UTEP and get in the old fashioned way, but this is still a big accomplishment.

As far as where we end up, it's more than likely that we end up in one of the CUSA contracted bowls. We have six slots and there is very little chance we get to 7 bowl eligible teams. That would require USM beating LaTech.

In the past CUSA has traded the Hawaii bowl slot to a team in the western half of the country in order to get one of its eastern teams a closer bowl slot. I don't see that happening this year.

I don't think the B10 will be able to send a team to the Heart of Dallas bowl, and the B12 will not be able to either. The SEC has 10 bowl slots, but will put Alabama in the CFP at least. If Vandy and Ole Miss can become bowl eligible, and Alabama is the only SEC team in the CFP they will have one extra team to place. Maybe the Heart of Dallas bowl can lure them? The only real hope I see of the conference having a P5 opponent in that game is if we can convince an ACC team. That game will go to WKU or LaTech either way.

Most likely destinations for us then are:

New Mexico
Hawaii
Bahamas

CUSA champ will want the HoD, New Orleans is a great place to visit, Boca gets you in front of Florida recruits.

------------------------------------

Original post:

There are 80 bowl slots.
There will not be 80 six win teams this season, most likely 3 or 4 empty slots.
NCAA ruled a few years ago that teams will be eligible to go at 5-7, ordered by their APR score.
The latest APR report completed is the 2014-15 report.

Per that ranking the top APR scores in FBS were:

Duke - 995
Wisconsin - 992
Northwestern - 992
Vanderbilt - 990
Michigan - 989
Army - 989
Air Force - 987
Georgia Tech - 984
North Texas - 984

Wisconsin and Michigan already are at/above 6 wins. Air Force is at 5 and is likely to get 6. Georgia Tech at 5 and I think they will win 1 more. Army is at 5 wins but has two games against FCS teams this year. They will need to win 2 out of AF, ND and Navy to go to a bowl per their leadership. Doesn't look likely.

Duke is at 3 wins and would need to win 2 out of VT, UNC, Pitt, and Miami. Unlikely IMHO.

So to get 5 wins:

Northwestern will need to win 1 out of: Wisc, Purdue, Minn, Ill.
Vanderbilt will need to win 1 out of: Aub, Mizzou, Ole Miss, Tenn.
NT will need to win 1 out of: LaTech, WKU, USM, UTEP

Long story short, IF we can get one more win I think we will be in a bowl per APR.

Moobs · November 2, 2016

I like it!

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · November 2, 2016

SIDENOTE: That's a really nice list of institutions of higher learning; and, we're right up there with them.

Wag Tag · November 2, 2016

25 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

There are 80 bowl slots.

There will not be 80 six win teams this season, most likely 3 or 4 empty slots.

NCAA ruled a few years ago that teams will be eligible to go at 5-7, ordered by their APR score.

The latest APR report completed is the 2014-15 report.

Per that ranking the top APR scores in FBS were:

Duke - 995

Wisconsin - 992

Northwestern - 992

Vanderbilt - 990

Michigan - 989

Army - 989

Air Force - 987

Georgia Tech - 984

North Texas - 984

Wisconsin and Michigan already are at/above 6 wins. Air Force is at 5 and is likely to get 6. Georgia Tech at 5 and I think they will win 1 more. Army is at 5 wins but has two games against FCS teams this year. They will need to win 2 out of AF, ND and Navy to go to a bowl per their leadership. Doesn't look likely.

Duke is at 3 wins and would need to win 2 out of VT, UNC, Pitt, and Miami. Unlikely IMHO.

So to get 5 wins:

Northwestern will need to win 1 out of: Wisc, Purdue, Minn, Ill.
Vanderbilt will need to win 1 out of: Aub, Mizzou, Ole Miss, Tenn.
NT will need to win 1 out of: LaTech, WKU, USM, UTEP

Long story short, IF we can get one more win I think we will be in a bowl per APR.

Thanks to you and all the individuals that work on the APR

Would be great pub to get in a bowl game because of our APR

Nice to be ranked 9th in a National Poll.

MeanGreen_MBA · November 2, 2016

27 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

SIDENOTE: That's a really nice list of institutions of higher learning; and, we're right up there with them.

here, here!!!!

Boca_Nasty_96 · November 2, 2016

I think we can beat USM, and UTEP the Mean Green will be Bowl-Eligible

GMG

VideoEagle · November 3, 2016

15 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

Thanks to you and all the individuals that work on the APR

Would be great pub to get in a bowl game because of our APR

Nice to be ranked 9th in a National Poll.

It's not a poll but the actual rankings. There are no judgement calls but just simple math.

I agree with TFLF, it is great to be on an academic list with Georgia Tech, Duke, two service academies and the rest!

Wag Tag · November 3, 2016

1 hour ago, VideoEagle said:

It's not a poll but the actual rankings. There are no judgement calls but just simple math.

I agree with TFLF, it is great to be on an academic list with Georgia Tech, Duke, two service academies and the rest!

Thanks really impressive! You need to recruit the parents show them this ranking. It takes care of competitors coaches talk! GMG

Edited November 3, 2016 by Wag Tag

Cerebus · November 10, 2016

Bump. Just a reminder that our bowl chances are still very much alive.

FirefightnRick · November 13, 2016

Today should put to bed the notion this team should go bowling should they finish 5-7.

Rick

UNT86 · November 13, 2016

Not true. You should try drinking the cool aid sometime.

Duke has 4 wins and has to beat Pitt or Miami to get to 5

Northwestern has 5 wins and needs to beat Minn or Ill to get to 6

Vanderbilt has 4 wins and needs to beat Ole Miss or Tenn to get to 5

Army has 5 wins and must beat Navy to get to 6

If we can win either of our last two, we have a REALLY good chance.

After 1-11, I'll take any bowl for any reason. No shame here.

UNT 90 Grad · November 13, 2016

Top 5 APR rankings of teams currently with less than 6 wins:

Duke - 995 4-6
Northwestern - 992 5-5
Vanderbilt - 990 4-6
Army - 989 5-5
North Texas - 984 4-6

Cerebus · November 13, 2016

2 hours ago, UNT 90 Grad said:

Top 5 APR rankings of teams currently with less than 6 wins:

Duke - 995 4-6

Northwestern - 992 5-5

Vanderbilt - 990 4-6

Army - 989 5-5

North Texas - 984 4-6

You can take Army out. Commandant has already said they won't count either of their two FCS wins.

So even if they beat Navy they will only consider it their 4th FBS win. No bowl for them.

I don't see Duke or Vandy as likely to win one more. IF we get to five our chances are great.

UTEP picked up their 7th loss, they won't be very motivated when we roll into El Paso.

Cerebus · November 14, 2016

Back on topic...

11/14 Update

Based on whose projections you believe, there are going to be somewhere between 75-77 six win teams with no more than one FCS win. So somewhere between 3-5 bowl slots for 5 win APR teams.

Lets look at that list again:

Duke - 995
Wisconsin - 992
Northwestern - 992
Vanderbilt - 990
Michigan - 989
Army - 989
Air Force - 987
Georgia Tech - 984
North Texas - 984

Wisconsin, Michigan, Air Force, and Georgia Tech are already at 6 wins or more. That leaves:

Duke - 995
Northwestern - 992
Vanderbilt - 990
Army - 989
North Texas - 984

Duke is at 4-6, but would have to win one out of Pittsburgh or Miami. Unlikely.
Northwestern is at 4-6, but will have to beat Minnesota or Illinois. 50/50 against Illinoize.
Vanderbilt is at 4-6, but would have to beat either Ole Miss or Tennessee. Unlikely.
Army is at 5-5, but is has one win against an FCS team and plays another this week. Their commandant has already said they will not count any wins against FCS teams. In effect to get thier 5th win they would need to beat Navy, and even then the Army forums seem to think the commandant would turn down a 5 win bowl bid. Unlikely.
North Texas has to beat USM or UTEP to get to five wins.

If we get to five wins our chances of bowling are very, very high. Everyone ahead of us in APR would have to win, and a bunch of other teams would have to go against the odds for their to only be 3 APR bowl slots open.

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · November 14, 2016

On 11/13/2016 at 8:52 AM, UNT86 said:

Not true. You should try drinking the cool aid sometime.

Duke has 4 wins and has to beat Pitt or Miami to get to 5

Northwestern has 5 wins and needs to beat Minn or Ill to get to 6

Vanderbilt has 4 wins and needs to beat Ole Miss or Tenn to get to 5

Army has 5 wins and must beat Navy to get to 6

If we can win either of our last two, we have a REALLY good chance.

After 1-11, I'll take any bowl for any reason. No shame here.

Agree!

Hey, Nebraska - NEBRASKA...stacks of national titles and Heisman winners and all - accepted a bowl invitation last season after finishing 5-7: http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/active/n/nebraska/2015-2019_yearly_results.php

So, if a "traditional power" school does it, give me a good reason as to why we should not do it.

Any bowl game means extra practice time for the coaches and players. You think the coaches, constantly under NCAA scrutiny for practice time, don't value the opportunity to get more practices in? They absolutely do, and we'd be nuts not to accept a bowl invite at 5-7.

To me, it's a reward to players, and unseen academic staff as well, for taking care of business off the field. These are student-athletes after all...remember?

Edited November 14, 2016 by MeanGreenMailbox

FirefightnRick · November 14, 2016

On November 13, 2016 at 8:52 AM, UNT86 said:

Not true. You should try drinking the cool aid sometime.

Duke has 4 wins and has to beat Pitt or Miami to get to 5

Northwestern has 5 wins and needs to beat Minn or Ill to get to 6

Vanderbilt has 4 wins and needs to beat Ole Miss or Tenn to get to 5

Army has 5 wins and must beat Navy to get to 6

If we can win either of our last two, we have a REALLY good chance.

After 1-11, I'll take any bowl for any reason. No shame here.

So if NT beats an even weaker team than any of those you list above we deserve just as much if not better?

While we're at lowering our standards why don't we just demand we go at 4-8?

smh

Rick

Harry · November 14, 2016

21 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

So if NT beats an even weaker team than any of those you list above we deserve just as much if not better?

While we're at lowering our standards why don't we just demand we go at 4-8?

smh

Rick

Honestly Rick I get your point but we could use the additional practice time.

FirefightnRick · November 14, 2016

1 hour ago, Harry said:

Honestly Rick I get your point but we could use the additional practice time.

.....or the additional recruiting time.

Rick

GMG24 · November 15, 2016

8 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Agree!

Hey, Nebraska - NEBRASKA...stacks of national titles and Heisman winners and all - accepted a bowl invitation last season after finishing 5-7: http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/active/n/nebraska/2015-2019_yearly_results.php

So, if a "traditional power" school does it, give me a good reason as to why we should not do it.

Any bowl game means extra practice time for the coaches and players. You think the coaches, constantly under NCAA scrutiny for practice time, don't value the opportunity to get more practices in? They absolutely do, and we'd be nuts not to accept a bowl invite at 5-7.

To me, it's a reward to players, and unseen academic staff as well, for taking care of business off the field. These are student-athletes after all...remember?

You take ANY bowl, it's extra practice time for your players especially the young guys!

NM Green · November 15, 2016

Well we just lost 3 so let's just win 3 to finish the year. Take'em on strong and finish the year with a bang!

GMG

forevereagle · November 15, 2016

16 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

.....or the additional recruiting time.

Rick

I believe that the bowl season is during the recruiting quiet period, so being at home doesn't do much for recruiting.

Edited November 15, 2016 by forevereagle

Cerebus · November 15, 2016

7 minutes ago, forevereagle said:

I believe that the bowl season is during the recruiting quiet period, so being at home doesn't do much for recruiting.

It is, but being in a bowl game is one more thing to sell to a recruit. SL walking into someones living room and telling them he took a 1-11 team to a bowl game in one year is a great selling point.

Even if some of the shine is knocked off if we have less than 6 wins, the PARENTS will really like that we got in via an academics waiver.

VideoEagle · November 15, 2016

Why not let the players decide if they accept an invitation to go with a 5-7 record? It's obviously not a cut and dry situation - there's lots of gray. For seniors, there isn't a "next year" and the APR results have a lot to do with their efforts.

Aldo · November 15, 2016

27 minutes ago, VideoEagle said:

Why not let the players decide if they accept an invitation to go with a 5-7 record?

This. It's about the players (and coaches). I dare anyone tell a player they don't deserve to go to a bowl.

Bowl games aren't participation trophies or a generous gesture towards college players, they're money generators.

AutoNation or Popeyes or Advocare couldn't care less about the legitimacy of bowl games so long as they're getting money. (and the bubble bursting bc of these practices is another good discussion altogether)

forevereagle · November 15, 2016

2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

It is, but being in a bowl game is one more thing to sell to a recruit. SL walking into someones living room and telling them he took a 1-11 team to a bowl game in one year is a great selling point.

Even if some of the shine is knocked off if we have less than 6 wins, the PARENTS will really like that we got in via an academics waiver.

Exactly. The argument that we should stay home and recruit is out because you can't recruit. Another thing to sell, added practice time, and no ability to recruit during that time either means we should take an invite should one present itself. Turning it down does nothing to help build the program for the future, regardless of whether we feel it is "earned" or not.