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Bowl and APR Situation

Cerebus

By Cerebus
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Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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With Duke failing to reach 5 wins, and with NW and Vandy winning... that leaves us in an interesting spot.

The top five APR teams right now are:

  • Army - 989
  • North Texas - 984
  • Texas - 971
  • Mississippi State - 971
  • Hawaii - 971

There is a very convoluted series of step that could happen in which we could be matched up in a non CUSA bowl vs another 5-7 APR team... such as Texas or Miss St.  I won't go into the details since it isn't super likely.

It also looks like the Armed Forced Bowl won't be filled automatically.  So we could end up there.    With six CUSA bowl eligible teams (the normal way) and with the Indy Bowl not looking to be available to CUSA now, it doesn't look like we end up in a CUSA bowl.  An outside bowl like the Arizona is most likely.

There is a lot in the air right now.  

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MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF
MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF

SIDENOTE:  That's a really nice list of institutions of higher learning; and, we're right up there with them.

shaft
shaft

I like how Rick keeps making weaker and weaker arguments...more time to research recruits.  Next thing you know he'll be trying to sell us on "stealth recruiting." Bowl game > staying home

FirefightnRick
FirefightnRick

Today should put to bed the notion this team should go bowling should they finish 5-7.   Rick

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BTG_Fan1 Newbie

BTG_Fan1

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

With Duke failing to reach 5 wins, and with NW and Vandy winning... that leaves us in an interesting spot.

The top five APR teams right now are:

  • Army - 989
  • North Texas - 984
  • Texas - 971
  • Mississippi State - 971
  • Hawaii - 971

There is a very convoluted series of step that could happen in which we could be matched up in a non CUSA bowl vs another 5-7 APR team... such as Texas or Miss St.  I won't go into the details since it isn't super likely.

It also looks like the Armed Forced Bowl won't be filled automatically.  So we could end up there.    With six CUSA bowl eligible teams (the normal way) and with the Indy Bowl not looking to be available to CUSA now, it doesn't look like we end up in a CUSA bowl.  An outside bowl like the Arizona is most likely.

There is a lot in the air right now.  

I'm assuming that it will be tweeted out tonite if UNT was to select a bowl.. but should we be looking to hear something tomorrow or any idea when?

Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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1 hour ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

 I'm not sure how being an "alternate" vs a n actual bowl eligible team and all our conference bowls being filled up works. 

Bowl eligibility order is:

  • Teams with 6 or more wins against FBS opponents.
  • Teams that get to 6-6 with one FCS win.
  • Teams that get to 6-6 with two FCS wins.
  • Teams that get to 6-7.
  • Teams that get to 5-7 based on APR order.

USA has two FCS wins and has already applied for and received a waiver.  However they still need their last game to get to 6-6.

Army has two FCS wins but Lafayette did not give out 90% of their scholarships over a two year rolling period so Army can't get the waiver USA did.

Hawaii can get to 6-7 if they win their last game.

 

2 minutes ago, BTG_Fan1 said:

I'm assuming that it will be tweeted out tonite if UNT was to select a bowl.. but should we be looking to hear something tomorrow or any idea when?

There won't be an official invite until the teams that can get selected ahead of us either win or lose.

  • USA can still get to six wins with two FCS wins,
  • Hawaii can get to 6-7,
  • Army can get to 6 wins (5 FBS + 1 FCS win)

Once that is worked out and they get invited then we can.

We WILL get a bowl game.  If you count up all the other possible ways to get into a bowl game (6, 6+fcs, 6+2fcs, 6-7) you only get to 68 possible teams.  There WILL be at least two APR teams.  We are the #2 APR team.  If Hawaii loses there will be 3 APR teams, if USA loses there will be 4 APR teams, if Army loses there will be 5 APR teams.

However by the time we pick, we could be taking the last APR slot.  Or we could be taking the 2nd of 5 APR slots.

JesseMartin Explorer

JesseMartin

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Cerebus said:

So... what exactly is there to do in Tuscon?

vLlruTx.gif

I go every month or two to promote my art. Not many major sightseeing opportunities, but hang out on 4th and there's lots of good food and beer.

ChristopherRyanWilkes Enthusiast

ChristopherRyanWilkes

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Cerebus said:

Bowl eligibility order is:

  • Teams with 6 or more wins against FBS opponents.
  • Teams that get to 6-6 with one FCS win.
  • Teams that get to 6-6 with two FCS wins.
  • Teams that get to 6-7.
  • Teams that get to 5-7 based on APR order.

USA has two FCS wins and has already applied for and received a waiver.  However they still need their last game to get to 6-6.

Army has two FCS wins but Lafayette did not give out 90% of their scholarships over a two year rolling period so Army can't get the waiver USA did.

Hawaii can get to 6-7 if they win their last game.

 

There won't be an official invite until the teams that can get selected ahead of us either win or lose.

  • USA can still get to six wins with two FCS wins,
  • Hawaii can get to 6-7,
  • Army can get to 6 wins (5 FBS + 1 FCS win)

Once that is worked out and they get invited then we can.

We WILL get a bowl game.  If you count up all the other possible ways to get into a bowl game (6, 6+fcs, 6+2fcs, 6-7) you only get to 68 possible teams.  There WILL be at least two APR teams.  We are the #2 APR team.  If Hawaii loses there will be 3 APR teams, if USA loses there will be 4 APR teams, if Army loses there will be 5 APR teams.

However by the time we pick, we could be taking the last APR slot.  Or we could be taking the 2nd of 5 APR slots.

I may get flack for this, but it almost appears to me based on the situation you outlined and what I've read up on that we ended up in a better situation than if we had 6 wins. At 6 wins we were staring down Bahamas or Hawaii--but now we are looking at getting top preference out of the 5-7 teams to fill in for perhaps even a P5 conference at a really decent bowl. 

ETA: example: one recent projection has us filling in for Big 12 in Armed Forces bowl here in Fort Worth. 

  • Upvote 2
Andrew Grand Master

Andrew

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

I may get flack for this, but it almost appears to me based on the situation you outlined and what I've read up on that we ended up in a better situation than if we had 6 wins. At 6 wins we were staring down Bahamas or Hawaii--but now we are looking at getting top preference out of the 5-7 teams to fill in for perhaps even a P5 conference at a really decent bowl. 

ETA: example: one recent projection has us filling in for Big 12 in Armed Forces bowl here in Fort Worth. 

I hope so but I believe CUSA has 7 bowl game slots to fill and only six 6 win teams. Wouldn't they just put us in to fill in our own conference bowl? Don't get me wrong I want to play in a better bowl game than the Hawaii bowl and I would love to stay local!

ChristopherRyanWilkes Enthusiast

ChristopherRyanWilkes

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Andrew said:

I hope so but I believe CUSA has 7 bowl game slots to fill and only six 6 win teams. Wouldn't they just put us in to fill in our own conference bowl? Don't get me wrong I want to play in a better bowl game than the Hawaii bowl and I would love to stay local!

No, we have 6 bowl games. Indy bowl is a secondary contract if other conferences can't fulfill, but it's look like they can. So 6 bowl games gets filled by 6 bowl eligible CUSA teams. We are a 5-7 alternate likely filling in for whatever conference can't fill whatever bowl. Right now it looks like for sure Armed Forces and Las Vegas bowl will need to be filled in and maybe Arizona. Not sure about the rest. 

ETA: I think Arizona gets filled by SBC and Mountain West unless ULL loses or Boise State gets a New Years 6 bowl. Keep in mind Las Vegas bowl is against MWC #1 so they'd be pissed. But Armed Forces is against Navy and so would they. Like I said we may end up in better bowl because of this but end up being a body bag for someone. 

  • Upvote 1
TheRiojas_AD Newbie

TheRiojas_AD

Posted
Posted

While we're all looking at APR, interest rates and all that crap, let us also pause to reflect that nUTSAck has six wins. I was enraged last night when I saw they won. I hate that stupid little team.

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Andrew Grand Master

Andrew

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Posted
41 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

No, we have 6 bowl games. Indy bowl is a secondary contract if other conferences can't fulfill, but it's look like they can. So 6 bowl games gets filled by 6 bowl eligible CUSA teams. We are a 5-7 alternate likely filling in for whatever conference can't fill whatever bowl. Right now it looks like for sure Armed Forces and Las Vegas bowl will need to be filled in and maybe Arizona. Not sure about the rest. 

ETA: I think Arizona gets filled by SBC and Mountain West unless ULL loses or Boise State gets a New Years 6 bowl. Keep in mind Las Vegas bowl is against MWC #1 so they'd be pissed. But Armed Forces is against Navy and so would they. Like I said we may end up in better bowl because of this but end up being a body bag for someone. 

I would love to play in the armed focres bowl. 

  • Upvote 1
shaft Community Regular

shaft

Posted
Posted

Hawaii won last night.  The APR picks will go past UNT. 

Texas may even decline, because of the coaching situation, and push it down one more APR slot.

#GoodGradesMatter

 

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Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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8 hours ago, shaft said:

Texas may even decline, because of the coaching situation, and push it down one more APR slot.

I think Herman would love to get a couple weeks of extra practices in.  It's like getting an extra spring ball.  

VideoEagle Mentor

VideoEagle

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cerebus said:

I think Herman would love to get a couple weeks of extra practices in.  It's like getting an extra spring ball.  

Yes, this is a "no lose" situation for them. Win and it obviously was purely a coaching problem. Lose and, well, the new coaches didn't have time to install their systems. 

Graddean Community Regular

Graddean

Posted
Posted

According to USA Today, UNT and Mississippi State are guaranteed in based on APR.. Two teams playing this Saturday have a chance to get to six wins.  If one of them loses, Texas is next up.  I think Herman would like a chance to see what he has.  If both teams lose Northrtn Illinois is next up.

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TheWestie Rookie

TheWestie

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Posted
On 11/26/2016 at 7:47 PM, Cerebus said:

Advanced scout?

Moved to Scottsdale (right next to Phoenix). But have been in Tucson a lot lately.


Eat amazing tamales, drive to the top of Mt Lemmon to watch the sun set over the city from 8,000+ ft up, go to beautiful Saguaro National Park, take the tour through the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base boneyard, drive bout an hour away to Tombstone for the gun fight at the OK Corral...

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Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

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MTSU AD told a local radio station that CUSA has received a lot of interest in trading bowls with other conferences.  So after all my careful calculations:

d6pwleb.gif

I am still very sure of:

  • WKU -> Boca
  • USM -> New Orleans

LaTech may be trying to find a bowl, any bowl, vs a P5.

TreeFiddy Proficient

TreeFiddy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

MTSU AD told a local radio station that CUSA has received a lot of interest in trading bowls with other conferences.  So after all my careful calculations:

d6pwleb.gif

I am still very sure of:

  • WKU -> Boca
  • USM -> New Orleans

LaTech may be trying to find a bowl, any bowl, vs a P5.

Thinking there is a decent chance LaTech ends up in the Independence bowl versus Miss St. 

ChristopherRyanWilkes Enthusiast

ChristopherRyanWilkes

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Cerebus said:

MTSU AD told a local radio station that CUSA has received a lot of interest in trading bowls with other conferences.  So after all my careful calculations:

d6pwleb.gif

I am still very sure of:

  • WKU -> Boca
  • USM -> New Orleans

LaTech may be trying to find a bowl, any bowl, vs a P5.

Which bowl do we trade? So far we have ODU to Bahamas, WKU likely to Boca, USM likely to NOLA. I doubt any conference wants Hawaii bowl and see MTSU there. Wonder if there's a scenario we could trade to get LaTech a decent opponent and have us play South Alabama or ULL in the HoD bowl as a Big 10 fill-in. I forgot how much fun speculating about bowl games is, btw.

  • Upvote 2
EagleMBA Newbie

EagleMBA

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, TheWestie said:

Moved to Scottsdale (right next to Phoenix). But have been in Tucson a lot lately.


Eat amazing tamales, drive to the top of Mt Lemmon to watch the sun set over the city from 8,000+ ft up, go to beautiful Saguaro National Park, take the tour through the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base boneyard, drive bout an hour away to Tombstone for the gun fight at the OK Corral...

I forgot about that "boneyard" when I mentioned Ft. Huachuca and Tombstone. I have had the pleasure to see it once and it is awesome.

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