Bowl and APR Situation

[EagleGreen]

Top UNT Brass reports we are IN a bowl game.  Today will just help determine which one.  

[JesseMartin]

20 hours ago, Cerebus said:

Missed a game earlier. 

• Arizona St (5-6) plays at Arizona (2-9), game will be on ESPN at 8:30.

 

Where we stand:

• There are now 68 bowl eligible teams.
• There are 12 teams one win away from bowl eligibility. 
• However many of the above 12 teams lose, that is how many APR slots there are.

The 12 teams are:

• SMU 
• Boston College 
• Indiana vs Purdue
• Maryland 
• Northwestern
• North Texas
• UTSA
• Army
• Hawaii 
• Arizona State
• Ole Miss
• Vanderbilt

The bolded teams are above us in APR and will take a bowl slot even if they lose, so in effect there are now 9 open APR slots, that will close as each non APR wins.

In addition, if Duke wins tomorrow, they will also take an APR slot before us, leaving 8.  

Worse case scenario is Duke wins, and ALL of the 8 the non bolded teams win.  That is the only scenario that would leave us out.  

ETA: If Arizona State loses tonight we'll be in a bowl game.

 

Stop the presses.  @shaft reminded me that ULL has only played 10 games and can still get to 6.   We need two out of BC, Indiana, Maryland, UTSA, Hawaii, Arizona St, Ole Miss and ULL to lose.  

So with the ASU loss...we need 2 more of these (and USA) to lose, yes?

[THOR]

What about smu to lose?

[JesseMartin]

27 minutes ago, THOR said:

What about smu to lose?

I was just looking at that on the ESPN scoreboard and realized when you said that that they weren't on this list.

[THOR]

56-24 navy....3rd quarter

[Cerebus]

Looks like CUSA might get the I-Bowl after all.

[Mean Green Matt]

Looks like this is going to be tight on the APR exemption. Almost all of the 5 win teams have won. SMU and Ole Miss look like they will lose. 

[Harry]

Ugh.  I was ok with going to bowl with 5 wins but I didn't imagine we would end the season like this.  This felt eerily Portland Stateish.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

12 minutes ago, Mean Green Matt said:

Looks like this is going to be tight on the APR exemption. Almost all of the 5 win teams have won. SMU and Ole Miss look like they will lose. 

Nah, we are basically in. AZ State lost and Ole Miss about to lose along with SMU. Sucks I can't even get excited about that fact though. 

This is a moot point though because everyone is delusional if they think we are turning down a bowl game under any circumstances. We got one every, what, 15 years? 

[97and03]

Barf

[EagleGreen]

That was ugly.  But, it's not like we were going to the college playoffs.  It's a bowl game and we get to drink beer and watch the Mean Green.  I really do not see the problem.  

[@UNTSportsFan]

Vanderbilt has clinched due to APR

[Mean Green Matt]

10 minutes ago, @UNTSportsFan said:

Vanderbilt has clinched due to APR

So do we need one more team to lose? I did a quick count and it looks like we would be in even if Hawaii, Army, and South Alabama were to get in. 

[Mickey]

Hopefully Fine and Wilson can be full speed by bowl game.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

Haven't confirmed it but some in the know already saying only 78 max teams if everyone else wins out. Us and Vandy in. @Cerebus can maybe confirm when he gets time. 

[THOR]

10 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Haven't confirmed it but some in the know already saying only 78 max teams if everyone else wins out. Us and Vandy in. @Cerebus can maybe confirm when he gets time. 

saw the same on the csnbbs board

 

[TreeFiddy]

Based on the earlier count provided by @Cerebus that showed that 68 teams have qualified and 12 possible teams that either have 5 wins or are ahead of us in the APR ranking (really there were 15 when you count dook, USA, and ULL), there have been 4 more teams that won and secured a spot (BC, Indiana, Maryland, and Northwestern) which takes the total qualified teams to 72.  

However 4 teams have lost (smoo, dook, ASU, and Ole Miss).  That leaves 4 teams from the list above (utsa, Army, Hawaii, and Vanderbilt) that can win to get to 6 or they are ahead of us in APR.  If all 4 teams win/qualify ahead of us, that puts us a 76 teams.  If you assume USA (south alabama) and ULL both win their final game to get to 6 that is still only 78 teams.

At that point, I think we are the next highest rated 5-7 team based on APR.  I am pretty sure we are in.

[Cerebus]

We're in.  UTEP game was terrible, but we have a chance to redeem ourselves in a bowl game.

It looks like CUSA might be able to snag the Indy Bowl.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

Verifying from multiple sources now that we are in. For those curious enough there's a reddit thread of someone keeping up with every game. Vandy,Army, and UNT in on APR, but Army can still do it the old fashion way (though unlikely). 

[3XNTGRAD]

2 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

We're in.  UTEP game was terrible, but we have a chance to redeem ourselves in a bowl game.

It looks like CUSA might be able to snag the Indy Bowl.

Great news.

Now - anything but Dec. 17th bowls since I have to be at UNT commencement that day.

[Mean Green Matt]

2 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

We're in.  UTEP game was terrible, but we have a chance to redeem ourselves in a bowl game.

It looks like CUSA might be able to snag the Indy Bowl.

MTSU thinks they're headed to Shreveport. Since we are going in at 5-7 if UTSA wins we cannot go to either Hawaii or Bahamas right? 

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

2 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

We're in.  UTEP game was terrible, but we have a chance to redeem ourselves in a bowl game.

It looks like CUSA might be able to snag the Indy Bowl.

Folks are saying that is likely going to MTSU unfortunately. If UTSA wins, I'm betting Hawaii or Bahamas. If they lose, New Mexico. 

1 minute ago, Mean Green Matt said:

MTSU thinks they're headed to Shreveport. Since we are going in at 5-7 if UTSA wins we cannot go to either Hawaii or Bahamas right? 

We can and likely will. UTSA will want New Mexico and has a way better argument at 6-6. Bahamas and Hawaii are not desirable for anyone but the players/coaches and ADs know that. 

[Mean Green Matt]

6 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Folks are saying that is likely going to MTSU unfortunately. If UTSA wins, I'm betting Hawaii or Bahamas. If they lose, New Mexico. 

We can and likely will. UTSA will want New Mexico and has a way better argument at 6-6. Bahamas and Hawaii are not desirable for anyone but the players/coaches and ADs know that. 

If UTSA wins that's six 6-win teams for CUSA to fill the 6 spots. We are a fill in going somewhere else. 

[TreeFiddy]

TheWren was talking on the radio broadcast and was discussing how the teams and the conference might influence the process by maybe 20%, but TV runs the show and has last say.  Essentially, we will go where TV wants us to go based on the matchup.  

 

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

2 minutes ago, Mean Green Matt said:

If UTSA wins that's six 6-win teams for CUSA to fill the 6 spots. We are a fill in going somewhere else. 

Indy bowl is more desirable and likely going to be open. Therefore a team like MTSU will argue hard for it and the conference/bowl committee will likely oblige. They don't fill the bowls based on rank of teams outside conference champion getting first pick. The other games, including secondary fill-ins such as Indy bowl, are just a pool all teams can fill. 

Edited November 27, 2016 by ChristopherRyanWilkes