Campus Insiders: North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction and Game Preview

[Cerebus]

North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction and Game Preview

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Advantages

Offense: UTSA. Both offenses are fairly balanced, but the Roadrunners have a little more firepower.

Defense: Even. Both units leave a lot to be desired.

Special Teams: Even. UTSA’s Falcon had been perfect on field goals and extra points this year until last week, but he hit just two of his five field goal attempts in the loss to UTEP. Meanwhile, Mean Green kicker Trevor Moore is just 3-of-6 on field goals this year.

Coaching: Even. Littrell and Wilson were two good C-USA hires this past offseason.

Intangibles: North Texas. Last week was a huge road win for the Mean Green, so they have the momentum. Meanwhile, UTSA is coming off of a crushing setback.

Matchup To Watch

Mason Fine vs. UTSA secondary

The Mean Green signal-caller was offered a spot at Oklahoma as a preferred walk-on but decided to honor his commitment to North Texas. While he has had an up-and-down debut campaign, Fine has a bright future. He’ll be going up against a pass defense that is allowing 231.6 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 73 in the country. Fine has not overwhelmed, but he has taken care of the football for the most part, tossing only two interceptions. Wilson is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and will be a focal point for this UTSA defensive front, so Fine will need to make some plays through the air—especially on third down—to keep the Roadrunners defense honest.

I would be happy to walk out of San Antonio with that score prediction.  

[Army of Dad]

47 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction and Game Preview

I would be happy to walk out of San Antonio with that score prediction.  

Barefoot all the way back to campus?

 

 

If not Johnny Jones should be fired and made to do it for you.

[UNTFan23]

We're two of those FG misses last weekend with very poor weather conditions?

[THOR]

5 minutes ago, UNTFan23 said:

We're two of those FG misses last weekend with very poor weather conditions?

yep

[UNTFan23]

1 minute ago, THOR said:

yep

I always take previews like this with a grain of salt because they tend to focus solely on the stats and not dive further into those stats to understand the why Trevor Moore is 3-6 so far this season. If I remember correctly, he kicked both field goal attempts into a stiff wind from 48 and 44 yards out.

[El Paso Eagle]

I will take the prediction but the guys an idiot about our defense

Edited October 27, 2016 by El Paso Eagle

[Cerebus]

9 minutes ago, UNTFan23 said:

I always take previews like this with a grain of salt because they tend to focus solely on the stats and not dive further 

Agree with you on that.  I mainly posted this to stir discussion.  

They also just look at the most basic stats.  If you want a real stat to look at in this game, look at sacks.  UTSA is rankd #105 with just 10 on the year, and the majority of those against Alabama (State).  

That is good news for us, since we are ranked #127 in the nation in sacks allowed, at 29 allowed.  

 

As usual, I think this game comes down to who wins the LOS.  If our OL can give Fine enough time to complete about 4 passes down field that will back the DBs up enough that Wilson will find lanes and we will win.  

 

[Ben Gooding]

Looking into this game a little more...I'm very comfortable with the outcome of this game. The 2 concerns I have with  utsa is their QB's legs and his deepball accuracy. We have to take one of those away. They run a boring style of offense but their success on offense is solely predicated on the big play. 

[greenminer]

@Ben Gooding isn't the UTSA offense similar to what Mac tried to do? Maybe our upperclassmen have some insight into defending it.

[Green Lantern]

1 hour ago, Army of Dad said:

Barefoot all the way back to campus?

Hell, at 5-3 I'd do the walk back on glass Die Hard style!

[NorthTexan95]

4 minutes ago, greenminer said:

@Ben Gooding isn't the UTSA offense similar to what Mac tried to do? Maybe our upperclassmen have some insight into defending it.

They will give you flashbacks to Canales' offense ... or nightmares.  

[Ben Gooding]

11 minutes ago, greenminer said:

@Ben Gooding isn't the UTSA offense similar to what Mac tried to do? Maybe our upperclassmen have some insight into defending it.

Similar, sure. But they have a decent QB though and he knows how and will pull the ball down and take off on any given play. 

[Withers940]

This Guys a Dip Stick......... I will take any kind of win but i feel as though our Defense is much better than theirs. I feel like UTSA has burnt out and our boys have gotten better and better each week.

Hypothetically speaking, If our team from week 1 played our current weeks team, Week 1 team would get their asses whooped.

[Ben Gooding]

2 minutes ago, Withers940 said:

This Guys a Dip Stick......... I will take any kind of win but i feel as though our Defense is much better than theirs. I feel like UTSA has burnt out and our boys have gotten better and better each week.

Hypothetically speaking, If our team from week 1 played our current weeks team, Week 1 team would get their asses whooped.

Our defense is actually only 8 total points on the year better than theirs. We have given up 190 points (27ppg) through 7 games while they have given up 198 points (28ppg) through 7 games. We are sitting at 1 and 2 in CUSA as far as scoring defense goes (the number 1 defensive statistic). 

*It could be argued they have played a stronger schedule than us up to this point. They most certainly have played higher octane offenses than us up to this point in Arizona State, ODU, Southern Miss, and Colorado State. Utsa can get up for games at home and that may be a little worrisome. I think from an overall vantage point we are the more talented team. We are also trending upward whereas they just lost to a pretty bad team at home. Remember, that bad team they lost to just a few days ago lost to Army 66-14. Sixty-six. 6.6. I like our chances here. We will need to dictate their offense with our defense and play our game on offense (which is confusing because I am not entirely sure what they will be THIS week). Feed the ball to Wilson and give Fine quick read, high percentage throws and we will be golden. But if we consistently do some stupid 3 and 4 progression reads like I have sporadically seen from the O while limiting Wilson to 2 first half touches in this game don't be surprised to see us in a dog fight. 

[Aldo]

UTSA hasn't faced a pass defense quite like ours.

[Ben Gooding]

6 minutes ago, Aldo said:

UTSA hasn't faced a pass defense quite like ours.

Not to have you stop drinking the green kool-aid. But we have played 1 above average quarterback this year in Stockstill. His numbers weren't great vs us, but he did throw for 295 and 2 td. The pro of that game was that he only completed 53% of his passes and he threw a pick. He has only threw 5 picks on the year and his 53% completion percentage vs UNT is his low on the year. I am like you, I think we do have a good pass defense. We just haven't really been tested. La Tech and WKU will test it just like Stockstill did. Sturn from nutsack isn't great, but due to our high flying offensive conference he's definitely getting overlooked by most. 

[Aldo]

9 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Not to have you stop drinking the green kool-aid. But we have played 1 above average quarterback this year in Stockstill. His numbers weren't great vs us, but he did throw for 295 and 2 td. The pro of that game was that he only completed 53% of his passes and he threw a pick. He has only threw 5 picks on the year and his 53% completion percentage vs UNT is his low on the year. I am like you, I think we do have a good pass defense. We just haven't really been tested. La Tech and WKU will test it just like Stockstill did. Sturn from nutsack isn't great, but due to our high flying offensive conference he's definitely getting overlooked by most. 

We lead the league in passes defended, INTs, opponent QB rating, passing TDs allowed, %comp allowed, #2 for y/attempt allowed, #2 y/game allowed.

Stockstill is one of the best/most productive in the nation. 

Richie James is one of the best/most productive receivers in the nation.

I'Tavius Mathers is one of the best/most productive running backs in the nation.

We've been tested.

[GMG_Dallas]

Per a member of the UTSA fan board, we've sold out our ticket allotment for the game. Anybody know what that allotment number is?

[Ben Gooding]

57 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Per a member of the UTSA fan board, we've sold out our ticket allotment for the game. Anybody know what that allotment number is?

Allotment for a home game in a 70k seat stadium? Hmmm

2 hours ago, Aldo said:

We lead the league in passes defended, INTs, opponent QB rating, passing TDs allowed, %comp allowed, #2 for y/attempt allowed, #2 y/game allowed.

Stockstill is one of the best/most productive in the nation. 

Richie James is one of the best/most productive receivers in the nation.

I'Tavius Mathers is one of the best/most productive running backs in the nation.

We've been tested.

All 3 of those players are 1 team. We were tested in that 1 game. We lost. As far as QBR and efficiency we haven't, other than Middle, played a potent offense. We've done well playing average to below average offenses. The stats are there. I could look them up for you if you'd like. But we were tested by Middle, you're right. But we lost. 

[TreeFiddy]

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Per a member of the UTSA fan board, we've sold out our ticket allotment for the game. Anybody know what that allotment number is?

Excerpt from CUSA football regulations (I am guessing the numbers represent minimums so actual number may be different):

Complimentary Tickets To Visiting Teams. The host institution shall provide the visiting institution with 400 complimentary tickets using its best efforts to provide the best seats available, and shall make 1600 tickets available for sale by the visiting institution. 

 

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/c-usa/genrel/auto_pdf/2015-16/misc_non_event/football-regulations-2015.pdf

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, TreeFiddy said:

The host institution shall provide the visiting institution with 400 complimentary tickets using its best efforts to provide the best seats available, and shall make 1600 tickets available for sale by the visiting institution.

Their board says they're expect 25 to 30 recruits. How great will it be If those 25 to 30 recruits show up to see 2 to 3 thousand in green plus the band. 

[KRAM1]

9 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Their board says they're expect 25 to 30 recruits. How great will it be If those 25 to 30 recruits show up to see 2 to 3 thousand in green plus the band. 

Buses are being arranged to transport students to and from the game. 

[Ben Gooding]

4 minutes ago, KRAM1 said:

Buses are being arranged to transport students to and from the game. 

THIS! 

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, KRAM1 said:

Buses are being arranged to transport students to and from the game. 

How many students are expected to go? It would be nice to know about many total UNT fans will be there

[KingDL1]

This guy never saw the mean green defense, just briefed some stats.

Our defense is the real deal and getting better each and every week, scary good, damn good, mean green good. I am simply amazed.