Matt from A700 Memorial Chances to Beat UTSA Poll

TheTastyGreek · October 25, 2016

14 hours ago, Cerebus said:

Matt from A700 is now is that great big club level in the sky* and because he loved these percentage polls so much, please tell us (in your opinion) how likely is it that NT beats UTSA this Saturday?

*As far as I know he is still alive, but please just play along.

Matt's greatest legacy is and will forever remain as a shining beacon of percentile ranges and their value in envisioning a brighter future.

What lessons can we learn from his passing? The obvious one is that man's endless yearning for exploring new frontiers, when paired with his natural lustful passions, can find a fatal limit when faced with the ultimate threshold of the body's natural elasticity.

Still, in the end (no pun intended, nor any offense to Matt's grieving friends and family, who have my deepest sympathies)... We mustn't stop believing in the seemingly impossible.

So, in Matt's honor, I will throw caution and self preservation to the wind and predict a 90%+ probability of not just a win against UTSA, but for the ultimate race for CUSA West!

And let Matt's untimely and unsanitary passing not discourage us from following our own dreams. Let it inspire us instead to savor each moment as though it could be our last.

Go out and live, my friends. Truly live a life of passion and reckless thrills. Open your hearts to adventure, even if it means potentially closing your caskets so that no one has to make any unpleasant excuses to a confused and heartbroken Granny from A700.

Let it start with a 90%+ chance of victory on Saturday.

Go Mean Green. And never forget Mike from the A-Team. He was the greatest of us all.

golfingomez · October 25, 2016

32 minutes ago, TheTastyGreek said:

Matt's greatest legacy is and will forever remain as a shining beacon of percentile ranges and their value in envisioning a brighter future.

What lessons can we learn from his passing? The obvious one is that man's endless yearning for exploring new frontiers, when paired with his natural lustful passions, can find a fatal limit when faced with the ultimate threshold of the body's natural elasticity.

Still, in the end (no pun intended, nor any offense to Matt's grieving friends and family, who have my deepest sympathies)... We mustn't stop believing in the seemingly impossible.

So, in Matt's honor, I will throw caution and self preservation to the wind and predict a 90%+ probability of not just a win against UTSA, but for the ultimate race for CUSA West!

And let Matt's untimely and unsanitary passing not discourage us from following our own dreams. Let it inspire us instead to savor each moment as though it could be our last.

Go out and live, my friends. Truly live a life of passion and reckless thrills. Open your hearts to adventure, even if it means potentially closing your caskets so that no one has to make any unpleasant excuses to a confused and heartbroken Granny from A700.

Let it start with a 90%+ chance of victory on Saturday.

Go Mean Green. And never forget Mike from the A-Team. He was the greatest of us all.

Rudy · October 25, 2016

15 hours ago, Cerebus said:

Not one single word for the dearly departed? Cold.

Win one for the Mattster.

chrisfisher · October 25, 2016

15 hours ago, golfingomez said:

really though... can you blame the oddsmakers? If you asked anyone here, what makes UNT great, it would be tough to figure out why... at this point of the season it is truly a feast or famine team... and the stats represent a pretty 'meh' team (thankfully, only one stat matters at the end of the game):

UNT Total offense: 346ypg, ranking 115*

UNT Total defense: 415.6ypg, ranking 73*

UNT Penalties yards per game: 73.57ypg, ranking 118*

UNT 3rd down defense: Opposing teams convert on .434 tries, ranking 93*

Before the Army game, UNT was at even for turnover margin.

Top this all off with a True freshman QB and a team that had gone 1-11 last year... it is REALLY tough to figure out how this team is actually winning games...

I think if you take out the Florida and MTSU games it may make a bit more sense...

whatever the formula is, keep doing it Littrell, because it is working!

*All rankings are out of 128 FBS teams.

The one stat you are missing... I recall seeing our defense specific to the red zone a week or so ago... it was in the Top 30... may have even dropped into Top 25 after the Army game.... THAT is how we are winning...red zone defense, the defense that matters! ..... Our defense keeps us in the game long enough for our inconsistent (to say it nicely) offense figures out how to score.

LongJim · October 25, 2016

60%.

Tyler Maryak · October 25, 2016

The fact that we're only four point underdogs has me feeling like this one is in the bag. However, I tempered my expectations and went with 60%. If you look at the Army game, we had 7 (SEVEN!) turnovers and, as incredible as our defense has been, at least a few of those were screw-ups by Army. Also, Army outpaced us in a ton of categories. Really, we won that game because of turnovers.

HOWEVER, if Fine is really clicking and the defense keeps forcing turnovers, this should be a gimme. The fact that UTSA's run game and defense doesn't rank anywhere near Army's tilts the odds pretty heavily in our favor too.

MeanGreenTexan · October 25, 2016

4 minutes ago, Tyler Maryak said:

The fact that we're only four point underdogs has me feeling like this one is in the bag. However, I tempered my expectations and went with 60%. If you look at the Army game, we had 7 (SEVEN!) turnovers and, as incredible as our defense has been, at least a few of those were screw-ups by Army. Also, Army outpaced us in a ton of categories. Really, we won that game because of turnovers.

HOWEVER, if Fine is really clicking and the defense keeps forcing turnovers, this should be a gimme. The fact that UTSA's run game and defense doesn't rank anywhere near Army's tilts the odds pretty heavily in our favor too.

The botched punt is the only one I can recall that was on Army. The rest were hard hits that jarred the ball lose, INTs, or straight strips. Those are all on our defense.

Christopher Walker · October 25, 2016

20 hours ago, Matt from A700 said:

I know UTSA is riled up to play us and this game is in the Alamo City, but this is a Seth Littrell-coached team. This is a crucial game that he doesn't let his men lose. 80%.

By the way guys, I'm more than fine. In fact, y'all should hurry up here too! The WiFi is much faster in heaven, and the Mean Green always get off the field after third down here too!!

But I mean, are we talking like All Dogs Go To Heaven™ Heaven? Or like Supernatural™ Heaven?

GreenTexan13 · October 25, 2016

11 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

The botched punt is the only one I can recall that was on Army. The rest were hard hits that jarred the ball lose, INTs, or straight strips. Those are all on our defense.

Well said! Every time Army fumbled the ball, that was on our defense completely. When I was watching the game on the computer, and listening/watching the Army home town commentators did instant replays of fumbles (2 of which were reversed) you could very well see our defensive players actively strip the ball out of their arm. It wasn't like they dropped the ball on their own. There might have been 1 fumble, that they just bobbled the ball out of their own carelessness.

The pick 6 early in the game, is a prime example as to why we have a huge possibility in winning out. That was a well executed defensive play and it took advantage of the receivers bad touch. Our defense was on the field like 65-70% of the game it seemed like, and made army turn the ball over 7 times. They are beasts in the secondary.

Army of Dad · October 25, 2016

8 minutes ago, GreenTexan13 said:

Well said! Every time Army fumbled the ball, that was on our defense completely. When I was watching the game on the computer, and listening/watching the Army home town commentators did instant replays of fumbles (2 of which were reversed) you could very well see our defensive players actively strip the ball out of their arm. It wasn't like they dropped the ball on their own. There might have been 1 fumble, that they just bobbled the ball out of their own carelessness.

The pick 6 early in the game, is a prime example as to why we have a huge possibility in winning out. That was a well executed defensive play and it took advantage of the receivers bad touch. Our defense was on the field like 65-70% of the game it seemed like, and made army turn the ball over 7 times. They are beasts in the secondary.

There was the fumbled snap and that appeared to be solely on Army.

Wilson nearly lost a ball and we had another player who I don't recall almost lose a ball too. I'm sure our D played a big role in the turnovers but the weather conditions may have also played a significant role as well.

GMG_Dallas · October 25, 2016

18 minutes ago, Army of Dad said:

There was the fumbled snap and that appeared to be solely on Army.

Wilson nearly lost a ball and we had another player who I don't recall almost lose a ball too. I'm sure our D played a big role in the turnovers but the weather conditions may have also played a significant role as well.

I was also going to bring up the fumbled snap. Also, the pick 6, although a great play by Jenkins, is more so just a lucky play. The receiver is 6 foot 5 so for the qb to throw the ball that high on a short pass like that is crazy. Even if the wr had come down with it, chances are it would have been a short gain. The Gray interception was clearly overthrown. Regardless, they made plays and even though two fumbles were overturned, their hard play was rewarded with Army making mistakes.

Gotta give credit to the offense though. Everybody here knew if we could force Army into passing, we could force some turnovers. That's exactly what happened and three of their interceptions were because they were trying to play catch-up. The offense made some plays when needed although don't discount luck there either. The long throw to Willie Robinson could easily have been picked off and there was another that's I'm blanking on where the DB tried jumping the route and just didn't get to it. Could have easily been a pick 6.

I worry that had this game not been played in the rain, the outcome may have been different...

Edited October 25, 2016 by GMG_Dallas

GreenTexan13 · October 25, 2016

21 minutes ago, Army of Dad said:

There was the fumbled snap and that appeared to be solely on Army.

Wilson nearly lost a ball and we had another player who I don't recall almost lose a ball too. I'm sure our D played a big role in the turnovers but the weather conditions may have also played a significant role as well.

I do recall when Wilson bobbled the ball now that you mention it. One thing is for sure, we won't have the weather playing a factor going into next week playing indoors. I think the weather conditions might have messed with Fine a bit too.

Edited October 25, 2016 by GreenTexan13

MeanGreenTexan · October 25, 2016

Wilson bobbled the ball, but didn't fumble it.

The 1st Jenkins INT could have been an incompletion because the ball was thrown too high, but it wasnt. It was a pick6.
The 2nd Jenkins INT could have been an incompletion because the ball was overthrown, but it wasnt. It was an INT in the end zone.
etc...
Those are plays our defense made. They took advantage of the opportunities they were given... Not just mistakes by Army.

Good call on the fumbled snap, but that's still a heads up play by the defense to get to the ball before their Center or QB fell on it. How many times do you see fumbled snaps recovered by the defense?

GreenFlag · October 25, 2016

About the weather at the Army game since I was there and why we won...

I saw the weather as playing favor to Army because it really wasn't too wet. It was a light drizzle in the first half that subsided in the second half. You didn't see the slipping and sliding on the field. The real factor was the wind which plays to Army's strength until they got behind. It was that crazy cold whipping wind that could go anywhere. The long passes were flying way off target for both teams.

We won because we at least have the threat of a passing game which opens running options. We won because we didn't give up the big play and forced mistakes. We won because Army has a terrible kicking game. Most of all we won because of superior athletic skill combined with a great defensive game plan. Army is a one trick pony that was exposed

Army had some nice LB's but that was about it. We "out athleted" them at every other position. Army may have been the slowest FBS team I have ever seen.

I don't care what the stat sheets showed, we beat their ass.

GMG_Dallas · October 25, 2016

9 minutes ago, GreenFlag said:

About the weather at the Army game since I was there and why we won...

I saw the weather as playing favor to Army because it really wasn't too wet. It was a light drizzle in the first half that subsided in the second half. You didn't see the slipping and sliding on the field. The real factor was the wind which plays to Army's strength until they got behind. It was that crazy cold whipping wind that could go anywhere. The long passes were flying way off target for both teams.

We won because we at least have the threat of a passing game which opens running options. We won because we didn't give up the big play and forced mistakes. We won because Army has a terrible kicking game. Most of all we won because of superior athletic skill combined with a great defensive game plan. Army is a one trick pony that was exposed

Army had some nice LB's but that was about it. We "out athleted" them at every other position. Army may have been the slowest FBS team I have ever seen.

I don't care what the stat sheets showed, we beat their ass.

Thanks for your post. There's obviously certain elements, such as how severe the weather might actually be during a game, that is lost through TV.