Guess: Big 12 Will Not Expand After All

[Travis]

Don't be surprised if the Big 12 will drastically change in the next few years. It seems that they are playing our their current TV deal.  I expect Texas and OU to bolt to another conference leaving the rest to create a new Big 12.  If they happen to take another school or two with them, then the Big 12 could be really different.   Houston would seem  like an obvious replacement as another AAC school or two.  They could always look at Boise State or BYU.  But, we really need to put our best foot forward in the next few seasons as a complete AD to make ourselves more viable for the next step up.  

This all assumes that the P5 doesn't become a whole new league of themselves which is always up for discussion. 

[Cerebus]

17 hours ago, Got5onIt said:

UT & OU are going to leave anyway in a few years.

Depends on what you mean by "a few years."

Nothing is going to change until the B12 grant of rights (GOR) expires in 2025.  Not only does the contract mean that if anyone left the conference their football/basketball tv money would stay with the conference, B12 rules say that anyone breaking the GOR also gives up any future NCAA basketball tournament credits.   March Madness teams get paid for each game they make, but also get a percentage of payout for the next five tournaments. 

So leaving the B12 early would mean giving up $100M+ in revenue.  

 

That being said I am 90% certain UT bolts when the GOR expires.  OU won't want to be left behind.  Kansas will have many suitors.  The remainder will no longer be a P5.  
 

 

ETA:  This means the BOR and The Wren™ have about nine years to get us into shape for the next big round of conference realignment.  

[Wag Tag]

20 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

That's just my guess.  Anyone else hear, see anything that would make them believe Big 12 would expand?  Therefore, I think we're pretty much staying in the C-USun Belt for another few seasons.  

Overarching reason:  None of the candidates really adds anything the Big 12 needs/doesn't already have.  Plus, I don't think Texas or Oklahoma can agree on whom to invite, anyway, if anyone. 

Question:  How depressed will Cougar fans be if Tulsa beats them this weekend and Big 12 announces no expansion on Monday?  And, will Tom Herman still be Cougar God then?  He's already in backtrack mode after one loss: 

"Our goal was not to go undefeated, our goal was not just to beat Oklahoma, (and) our goal wasn't to be ranked in the top 10 or five," Herman said. "Our goal was to win our conference, and that goal is still out there."

I think maybe the truth is:  those were all goals, but only one goal is still out there:  win the AAC.  With another loss or two, we'll see what Cougar God is made of.  We're discovering now what SMU Jesus is made of.  

Other coaches to watch - Hairgel Hands up at Texas Tech. How many more losses does Tech take before the Sand Aggie faithful decide $3 million+ is a lot to pay for a coach who can't even put together a winning record in conference year after year.  The easy part of their slate is gone, and they're only 3-2 to show for it, 1-1 in conference.  Remaining sked for Hairgel:

This weekend: home against his philosophical doppelganger, Dana Holgorsen and West Virginia
Next weekend: home against Oklahoma
October 29:  at TCU
November 5:  home against Texas
November 12: at Oklahoma State
November 19: at Iowa State, a school who has already come close to pissing in Baylor's and Oklahoma State's corn flakes this season.  They'll hit the cereal bowl against someone.
November 25: at JerryWorld versus Baylor

Hard to see even three more wins there Tech and Hairgel to get bowl eligible.  If they can't beat WVU this weekend, I think their season's fully in the crapper.  It's then just a matter of how long the turd circles before going down the pipe.

Give us 2 years then blow up the <12. Texas and OU will be gone even though there is a large exit fee. Will OU be able to leave without OSU? This is a political question.

The conf gets backfilled with AAC which will open opportunities for NT. GMG

[Felozano]

4 hours ago, oldguystudent said:

It's just fantasy, but a boy can dream, right?

 

Rice

Tech

TCU

Baylor

UNT

Houston

Tulane

Tulsa

Southern Miss

LaTech

UTEP

Memphis

That gives a nice regional mix of seven publics and five privates, most of the schools with good academics (I think of the list, only UTEP would be suspect). 

Yes, I know, there are about two hundred responses coming to tell me how unrealistic this is and how it would never happen because X school hates Y school and ESPN can't pleasure itself enough with Z school.  Whatevs.  I would love this conference, and it's nothing more than bye week dreaming.

Also, Leave SMU out in the cold, because screw those guys. 

Hahahahah!  

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

18 hours ago, Cougar King said:

History shows if MeanGreenMailbox guesses one way then the opposite comes true. 

For your sake, there's hope, then!

All kidding aside, I call the Tulsa-Houston games the "Grandparent Bowl" because, growing up, I had one set of grandparents, aunts, and uncles in Tulsa, and the other set in Houston (Bellaire and Sugar Land, technically).  So, I spent most of many childhood holidays and summer in one city or the other.   This game is bragging rights for one side of the family or the other.  

To raise the stakes a little, my grad degree is from TU, and I've got a cousin who is now a grad student at UH.  So, they are our secondary schools of choice for college football.  I actually think TU's defense is too dicey to keep up with UH this year.  But, the former Baylor OC they have a head coach and their senior QB might be able to keep them in the game for a half or so...

...just be thankful TU doesn't run the wishbone!

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

Another thing to add is, will the P5 make a move to totally remove itself from NCAA control before Big 12's grant of rights expires?  Or, will they move to twist everything to the degree that G5 becomes more like FCS? 

The final pieces to the P5 puzzle really are Texas and Oklahoma...and, they know it. 

To that end, I think they are trying to squeeze more money and concessions out of FOX and ESPN while they can.  But, with cable subscribership (is that a word, 'subscribership'?) down overall and projected to go further down, the window to squeeze more concessions is tight and closing fast.

You know that Texas and Oklahoma, who laughed at A&M and Nebraska when they left, cannot be laughing now when they look up see the Big 10 and SEC ahead of them competitively and monetarily.

Texas gambled on the LHN just before cable's decline began.  You might argue that LHN was a wake up call for many cablers because so many outlets refused to carry it at the outset due to the cost.  That should have been a huge red flag to the conferences and networks.

My prediction remains:  OU and Texas go wherever they choose, and especially Texas.  Kansas is Big Ten or ACC bound. 

Oklahoma State might be thrown a lifeline...if OU and Texas don't go somewhere as a package.  T. Boone is 88, and in the middle of a lawsuit that could easily score him hundreds of millions more in net worth...but, will he still be alive once all the appeals play out?  And, when he dies, will his heirs give a damn about Oklahoma State the way he did? 

After seeing Texas and A&M really kiss goodbye, I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that Tech, TCU, or Baylor - either individually or as a group - have the political clout to keep Texas from doing whatever it wants.

It's dirty and I hate it.  But...the reality is that the schools do care more about the money than the fanbases.  If you can't clear that hurdle in your mind, you will be perpetually flabbergasted by any and all of these comings and goings. 

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

4 hours ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

I remember reading a Mickey Spagnola article in the now defunct Dallas Times-Herald how (then) Arkansas AD Frank Broyles listed "too many Texas schools in one conference" as one of the reasons they vaulted for the SEC. I still think UT & OU go PAC 12 or SEC & will use that as one of their reasons.  

Is the PAC 12 too far for UT & OU to change their conference footprint?   Well, with their athletic budgets for football alone it isn't.  I think the SEC would be their 2'nd choice if the Aggies didn't go political & blackball them.

GMG!

 

Agree with much of this.  I think the Pac-12 deal that fell apart under Texas and OU in 2011 was because Pac-12 didn't also want to take in Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, the two others that were supposed to be part of the deal.

The problem for the Pac-12 now, is that it's like the Big 12 - not getting as much money in TV and the competitiveness is down.  Look at the way Oregon gets pushed around these days.  USC and UCLA?  I mean, the conference really is in 137% suckfart mode when compared to the other P5s.

I can't imagine the mea culpa of OU to the Big 10 after they waved goodbye to long time, and fallen, rival Nebraska, then having to rejoin them because of the undoing of the conference they and Texas worked so hard to job for every nickel they could.

The delay is simply this:  OU was accustomed to controlling the Big 8, Texas was accustomed to controlling the SWC and, for the most part, the Big 12.  They don't want to see it slipping away.  Both may finally be forced to join conferences where every schools gets a square split of the TV and bowl money.  In other words, conferences where they can't bully the other schools around, as they've both been accustomed to doing for decades.

 

[untjim1995]

The Big XII has three pieces that other Power Conferences would like to add: UT, OU, and KU. You have revenue sports powers (UT and OU in football, KU in basketball), academic prestige at UT and KU (both AAU) and OU has the whole National Merit Scholar thing to trumpet, and they provide footholds into good to great markets--DFW, Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Tulsa, Wichita, and Kansas City.

What I could see happen for Texas is contingent on how they want to keep the LHN. It runs out after 2031, or 6 years after the GOR expires. Don't underestimate the Texas hubris here--they can easily convince themselves to go independent until the LHN runs out, just to keep getting the extra cash for it. But that said, they are a Pac school in waiting--their academic leadership and liberal slant fit comfortably with the West Coast teams and are really only dealing with USC as the premier football brand out west (similar to what it was like when the Big XII formed and Nebraska was the top brand). To me, the Pac would score big time by going against the grain and making themselves into an 18 team league. Take UT, Tech, OU, OSU, KU, and KSU and make them a division. You play five teams every year in that division, two more in the Southern Division of Utah, CU, Arizona, ASU, USC, and UCLA, and two more in the North Division of Stanford, Cal, Oregon, OSU, Washington, and Wazzu. That's 9 conference games and then have a conference championship that features the top two teams in the league. That gets the Pac network some serious markets and time zones to work with, which it needs badly. And if Texas leaves, but takes Tech, they will have cut out the political issues that the privates in the state cannot beat by themselves, but could if Tech isn't moving up, too.

When its all said and done, the real question is what the Power Leagues will do with the leftovers? Will they keep the situation as the status quo, where the G5s will be able to continue to play games in OOC play and bowl games? Or will they cull that down to just two main leagues outside of the Power Leagues, like the AAC and MWC? Or will they just cut them all out? Any of those possibilities are legitmate outcomes. Spare me the legislative bit, too--they control those networks, media, legislatures, and courthouses with their grads and their money. But I can see the least resistance for them being the idea of the AAC and MWC being the certified leagues to play OOC games against the power leagues. The problem is that the MWC and AAC are ging to get some solid schools to add them to their leagues, like TCU, Baylor, and Iowa State, as well as other schools in the Big XII that aren't guaranteed spots anywhere, like KSU, OSU, Tech, and WVU.

 

[Boca_Nasty_96]

9 hours ago, oldguystudent said:

It's just fantasy, but a boy can dream, right?

 

Rice

Tech

TCU

Baylor

UNT

Houston

Tulane

Tulsa

Southern Miss

LaTech

UTEP

Memphis

That gives a nice regional mix of seven publics and five privates, most of the schools with good academics (I think of the list, only UTEP would be suspect). 

Yes, I know, there are about two hundred responses coming to tell me how unrealistic this is and how it would never happen because X school hates Y school and ESPN can't pleasure itself enough with Z school.  Whatevs.  I would love this conference, and it's nothing more than bye week dreaming.

Also, Leave SMU out in the cold, because screw those guys. 

That would be one bad ass conference I like this idea,but we can only dream about it. Screw SMU 

GMG

[JesseMartin]

8 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Another thing to add is, will the P5 make a move to totally remove itself from NCAA control before Big 12's grant of rights expires?  Or, will they move to twist everything to the degree that G5 becomes more like FCS? 

The final pieces to the P5 puzzle really are Texas and Oklahoma...and, they know it. 

To that end, I think they are trying to squeeze more money and concessions out of FOX and ESPN while they can.  But, with cable subscribership (is that a word, 'subscribership'?) down overall and projected to go further down, the window to squeeze more concessions is tight and closing fast.

You know that Texas and Oklahoma, who laughed at A&M and Nebraska when they left, cannot be laughing now when they look up see the Big 10 and SEC ahead of them competitively and monetarily.

Texas gambled on the LHN just before cable's decline began.  You might argue that LHN was a wake up call for many cablers because so many outlets refused to carry it at the outset due to the cost.  That should have been a huge red flag to the conferences and networks.

My prediction remains:  OU and Texas go wherever they choose, and especially Texas.  Kansas is Big Ten or ACC bound. 

Oklahoma State might be thrown a lifeline...if OU and Texas don't go somewhere as a package.  T. Boone is 88, and in the middle of a lawsuit that could easily score him hundreds of millions more in net worth...but, will he still be alive once all the appeals play out?  And, when he dies, will his heirs give a damn about Oklahoma State the way he did? 

After seeing Texas and A&M really kiss goodbye, I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that Tech, TCU, or Baylor - either individually or as a group - have the political clout to keep Texas from doing whatever it wants.

It's dirty and I hate it.  But...the reality is that the schools do care more about the money than the fanbases.  If you can't clear that hurdle in your mind, you will be perpetually flabbergasted by any and all of these comings and goings. 

I have a couple of questions about this.  First, are the contractual agreements regarding conferences contingent upon their being a part of the NCAA?  By this, I mean, if they leave the NCAA, do all of the contracts and the GOR and other stuff get tossed out and they start fresh?  If so, wouldn't this mean that if the P5 leave the NCAA, that Texas and OU don't have to stick around after all?

Also, I think it was you who mentioned something about which conferences have the most money...just checking, you did mean them as a conglomerate and not their member schools, right?  Because the last study I saw had Texas was ahead of anyone else in overall annual revenue, but that was a couple of years or so ago and could be different now.