Absolutely Baseless Prediction for the Big 12

[El Paso Eagle]

Someone will swoop in and add Houston to gain access to the Houston/Texas recruiting – my guess ACC

Texas will head to the PAC-12 (IMO they have wanted this for a long time)

OU would love to join Nebraska in the BIG10

Kansas might back in to the ACC with its basketball

 The rest ….. Good luck

[NM Green]

Time to position ourselves now to tie up with Baylor, Tech, Kansas State and TCU.

Just keep winning and growing Mean Green!

GMG 

[Got5onIt]

Does OU have the academics to make it into the B10?

[untjim1995]

33 minutes ago, Got5onIt said:

Does OU have the academics to make it into the B10?

Not by themselves, they don't. The B1G is all about the AAU membership that brings in research dollars. Only Nebraska in the B1G is not AAU, and they lost that accreditation just AFTER gaining membership. Currently, in the Big XII, UT, ISU, and KU are your AAU members. 

Kansas may suck fiercely at football, but they bring the academics, basketball revenue and pedigree, and the KC market. They will find a home when the final reshuffling occurs. I still think the most likely scenario is the Texoma 4 go west, KU goes to the B1G, along with another AAU school, probably Mizzou, who wanted B1G membership and fits more closely with the B1G than the SEC culturally. That gets you to 16 in the PAC, and 16 in the B1G. The SEC probably just replaces Missouri with Kansas State, West Virginia, and a school in a new market like East Carolina, which gets them into the North Carolina TV markets. I think the ACC will invite cincy to be their 16th member, which includes notre dame staying affiliated with them.

Thats your Power Four. 

I believe the power four will allow the next level of schools to still play them, even throwing them the bone of being able to have access to a non-playoff big bowl like they do now. I believe that the teams that will be allowed to fit in this category will be in two main conferences--a western based league and an eastern based league, each with 16 members, as well. If the AAC loses East carolina and Cincy, and if UConn goes independent in football but joins the Big east in hoops, which i believe will happen, the AAC will be down to 9 teams. The MWC has 12. BYU and Army will get included in this group, which gives you 23 teams. That leaves 13 spots to fill from the ranks of the MAC, CUSA, and SBC. The belief is now that we appear to be getting the right leadership in place, we can get into this collection of non-power FBS teams. 

[MeanGreen_MBA]

3 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

Not by themselves, they don't. The B1G is all about the AAU membership that brings in research dollars. Only Nebraska in the B1G is not AAU, and they lost that accreditation just AFTER gaining membership. Currently, in the Big XII, UT, ISU, and KU are your AAU members. 

Kansas may suck fiercely at football, but they bring the academics, basketball revenue and pedigree, and the KC market. They will find a home when the final reshuffling occurs. I still think the most likely scenario is the Texoma 4 go west, KU goes to the B1G, along with another AAU school, probably Mizzou, who wanted B1G membership and fits more closely with the B1G than the SEC culturally. That gets you to 16 in the PAC, and 16 in the B1G. The SEC probably just replaces Missouri with Kansas State, West Virginia, and a school in a new market like East Carolina, which gets them into the North Carolina TV markets. I think the ACC will invite cincy to be their 16th member, which includes notre dame staying affiliated with them.

Thats your Power Four. 

I believe the power four will allow the next level of schools to still play them, even throwing them the bone of being able to have access to a non-playoff big bowl like they do now. I believe that the teams that will be allowed to fit in this category will be in two main conferences--a western based league and an eastern based league, each with 16 members, as well. If the AAC loses East carolina and Cincy, and if UConn goes independent in football but joins the Big east in hoops, which i believe will happen, the AAC will be down to 9 teams. The MWC has 12. BYU and Army will get included in this group, which gives you 23 teams. That leaves 13 spots to fill from the ranks of the MAC, CUSA, and SBC. The belief is now that we appear to be getting the right leadership in place, we can get into this collection of non-power FBS teams. 

that is an interesting analysis....well thought out

[Wag Tag]

7 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Someone will swoop in and add Houston to gain access to the Houston/Texas recruiting – my guess ACC

Texas will head to the PAC-12 (IMO they have wanted this for a long time)

OU would love to join Nebraska in the BIG10

Kansas might back in to the ACC with its basketball

 The rest ….. Good luck

Agree .. I could c ACC adding both Cincy and Houston! Houston market would be a real nice get with no overlapping of markets!

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

Kansas to Big 10 or ACC due to academics and basketball.
Texas and Oklahoma to anyone who wants them due to athletic reputation and academics. 

Oklahoma State possibly thrown a life line by Oklahoma if Oklahoma and Texas don't pal up and join another conference together. 

Everyone else is poops their pants and becomes G5/6, either being absorbed by the AAC and MWC,or by staying together and inviting a few more in to get back the ten schools that make them the Big 12 now.

The world has already seen a sh*tty Big East without Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College.  It won't put up with it again.  So, Big 12 will not survive in P5-land without its flagships schools. 

At that point G5/6 has to decide whether to keep playing ball.  Even though the horse is out of the barn as to who really controls the NCAA, G5/6 still plays along like a good little brother tagging along, hoping someday to be included with the big boys in the neighborhood.

But, just remember this:  when the ice cream truck arrives jiggling down the street, it sells to all who have the currency and willingness to participate!

 

2 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

Agree .. I could c ACC adding both Cincy and Houston! Houston market would be a real nice get with no overlapping of markets!

Why does the ACC need to be in Texas?  They are already competitive in football and basketball without being in Texas. 

It's not schools that recruit Texas heavily that are winning national championships in either football or basketball.

Edited September 29, 2016 by MeanGreenMailbox

[Wag Tag]

43 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Kansas to Big 10 or ACC due to academics and basketball.
Texas and Oklahoma to anyone who wants them due to athletic reputation and academics. 

Oklahoma State possibly thrown a life line by Oklahoma if Oklahoma and Texas don't pal up and join another conference together. 

Everyone else is poops their pants and becomes G5/6, either being absorbed by the AAC and MWC,or by staying together and inviting a few more in to get back the ten schools that make them the Big 12 now.

The world has already seen a sh*tty Big East without Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College.  It won't put up with it again.  So, Big 12 will not survive in P5-land without its flagships schools. 

At that point G5/6 has to decide whether to keep playing ball.  Even though the horse is out of the barn as to who really controls the NCAA, G5/6 still plays along like a good little brother tagging along, hoping someday to be included with the big boys in the neighborhood.

But, just remember this:  when the ice cream truck arrives jiggling down the street, it sells to all who have the currency and willingness to participate!

 

Why does the ACC need to be in Texas?  They are already competitive in football and basketball without being in Texas. 

It's not schools that recruit Texas heavily that are winning national championships in either football or basketball.

MEDIA MKT EXPOSURE!

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

29 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

MEDIA MKT EXPOSURE!

Really?  Big 12 doesn't already have Houston as a market?  Please.  Texas and Oklahoma are both bigger market draws in Houston than Houston, and have been for decades. 

OK writer hits the nail on the head re: expansion for the Big 12 -
http://newsok.com/article/5520007

“From Day One, expanding was OK if we replaced the teams we lost with teams of equal stature,” said an OU administrator Tuesday. “They are not out there.”

Brigham Young. Houston. Cincinnati. Connecticut. All have pluses and minuses. We can debate which candidates offer the best portfolios. We cannot debate that all have minuses.

Nebraska didn't have minuses. Texas A&M didn't have minuses. Colorado and Missouri didn't have minuses. All flagship universities in their states. All deep roots with fellow conference schools. All a decent (or better) amount of football tradition. All academically stout (all four members of the prestigious Association of American Universities).

“The teams we need have left,” another Big 12 administrator said Tuesday. “Whoever you add out there really devalues the whole conference. They don't add anything. Just to get 12? What's sacred about a number? Does that make you stable?”

 

It seems clearer to me every day that the Bob Bowlsby/Boren announcement in July that the Big 12 would investigate expansion was a poker play. Scare the television networks —which by contract would owe the Big 12 an extra $25 million per added school per year if the league expanded — into renegotiating the media deals. In effect, pay the Big 12 not to expand.

...

The Big 12 could have played this poker hand in secret, not made such a public spectacle and kept the business relationship damage to a minimum. Or maybe the Big 12 did that, got nowhere and decided to double down.

The Big 12 held out hope into July that it might eventually entice Florida State and Clemson to leave the ACC. Then came word that the ACC was forming a conference network, leaving the Big 12 as the only Power-5 league without such a marketing force, and that the ACC schools were signing away their media rights to the conference into 2037."

 

[Wag Tag]

3 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Really?  Big 12 doesn't already have Houston as a market?  Please.  Texas and Oklahoma are both bigger market draws in Houston than Houston, and have been for decades. 

OK writer hits the nail on the head re: expansion for the Big 12 -
http://newsok.com/article/5520007

“From Day One, expanding was OK if we replaced the teams we lost with teams of equal stature,” said an OU administrator Tuesday. “They are not out there.”

Brigham Young. Houston. Cincinnati. Connecticut. All have pluses and minuses. We can debate which candidates offer the best portfolios. We cannot debate that all have minuses.

Nebraska didn't have minuses. Texas A&M didn't have minuses. Colorado and Missouri didn't have minuses. All flagship universities in their states. All deep roots with fellow conference schools. All a decent (or better) amount of football tradition. All academically stout (all four members of the prestigious Association of American Universities).

“The teams we need have left,” another Big 12 administrator said Tuesday. “Whoever you add out there really devalues the whole conference. They don't add anything. Just to get 12? What's sacred about a number? Does that make you stable?”

 

It seems clearer to me every day that the Bob Bowlsby/Boren announcement in July that the Big 12 would investigate expansion was a poker play. Scare the television networks —which by contract would owe the Big 12 an extra $25 million per added school per year if the league expanded — into renegotiating the media deals. In effect, pay the Big 12 not to expand.

...

The Big 12 could have played this poker hand in secret, not made such a public spectacle and kept the business relationship damage to a minimum. Or maybe the Big 12 did that, got nowhere and decided to double down.

The Big 12 held out hope into July that it might eventually entice Florida State and Clemson to leave the ACC. Then came word that the ACC was forming a conference network, leaving the Big 12 as the only Power-5 league without such a marketing force, and that the ACC schools were signing away their media rights to the conference into 2037."

 

Mkt exposure for the ACC!! Mainly media!

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

Here's the deal: C-USA/Banowsky was the poster child for expanding just for the sake of expanding.  The Big 12 isn't going to do that.

Banowsky added a bunch of crappy teams, causing the best of what was the C-USA to abandon ship and reform itself under a new name.

We bought in hook, line, and sinker.  But, by the time all was said and done, we were back in the same boat with Sun Belt mates.  Having thoroughly f*cked up the conference, Banowsky then took the last parachute and jumped. 

All in all, it shows how far behind, though, the Big 12 is than the other P5s.  The ACC was challenging them for the bottom until the got their new TV deal and locked everyone in until 2037. 

The Big 12 is screwed because of the Longhorn Network.  But, by the time the Longhorns leave, it won't matter.  No network will be clamoring to pour millions into a Big 12 network without Texas and Oklahoma. 

It's money.  None of the "candidates" for Big 12 expansion adds any money to the Big 12.  Oklahoma and Texas know this; they are the only programs that can bring money.  In reality, they all know this.  What they hope for, though, is that the Big 12 has a stupid enough commissioner to expand just to expand. 

No way Texas and Oklahoma allow it...while they are there.  After they leave, they'll likely care less who the "Big 12" at that point adds.

4 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

Mkt exposure for the ACC!! Mainly media!

ACC is on the East Coast; they already have bigger national media. 

The Big 12 doesn't need Houston, and neither does the ACC.  No P5 conference needs any of the G5 schools, for market, money, or anything else. 

[wardly]

I don't see what either Cincy or Houston bring to the table in terms of t.v. sets and new recruiting markets ,which is what expansion should do. The old Big 8 schools do not want another Texas school,and  both Baylor and TCU don't want to recruit in Houston against an established Big 12 member. I personally think Texas is positioning themselves by supporting Houston in public so that when they fail to get in they can say that they tried, thereby easing opposition to their new Houston campus . It would not surprise  me if expansion comes,and its not a given , that they add UCF and USF  which gets them into Florida, a gold mind for recruiting and t.v. sets.But I doubt expansion happens.