MGB: UNT and the body bag/opportunity game -- A look back

UNT90 · September 13, 2016

Just now, UNTLifer said:

#letitgo #summerseve

Like it or not, many G5s play P5s. Can't beat them if you don't play them.

#higherexpectations

Was I talking to you?

UNTLifer · September 13, 2016

1 hour ago, UNT90 said:

Was I talking to you?

Did you post it on a public message board?

TreeFiddy · September 13, 2016

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

no thanks. I'll take the FCS game VS 5 games every time.
That only speaks to the bolded above. Has nothing to do with RV's lack of scheduling prowess, which we can all agree, was pitiful.
If you buy out one of the FCS games, you'd better have a plan on how to replace that game, at home, or there will be anarchy.

Exactly. The last thing we need to do right now is make our schedule more difficult by playing more road games.

wardly · September 14, 2016

I'm sure Florida fans feel the same way about UNT as we do about last week's opponent. Why schedule a team that no one gives a shit about? I have no experience at scheduling games, and don't really know how hard it is to do in order to balance the budget and satisfy fans. Personally, I have no problem with an annual home game against a 1AA opponent. My preference would be the Southland Conference .Closer,probably cheaper, and might bring some fans.

Mike Jackson · September 14, 2016

I think the economic argument is a valid one paying 40% of your whore game pay to bring in a FCS opponent is stupid. Recruits that want to go to P5 school but got passed over want to at least play against P5 teams whenever possible. How much income are you generating by playing Incarnate Word? I know I am not coming unless I have season tickets. And that is not encouraging me to buy season tickets either. Scheduling regional FBS teams with name recognition gets people interested. Winning some of those games keeps people instead. You don't have to go 9-3 or better every year to keep fans coming back. But if you insist on playing the "Sisters of the Poor" every year then you must go 8-4 or better every year to keep fans coming back. I am an alumni in the desired 30-45 year old demographic and disposal income is tight for most of us. Watching the Mean Green beat lower level FCS is not enjoyable enough for me to fork over $125 for a season ticket.

GrandGreen · September 14, 2016

On 9/12/2016 at 3:25 PM, UNT90 said:

Can you not say Whore games in the DRC?

Because that's what it is, a lazy, fired AD who whored out our young football players due to his laziness.

I pray to God WB can find some way to change up this aged awful, lazy, man whorin' schedule left for him by the last terrible AD.

Lot of lazy AD's in G5 land, who nearly all schedule these games to help financially as well as aid in gaining recognition and recruiting. It seems that you if anyone should know that RV is no longer here.

wardly · September 14, 2016

I assume you understand that at this point in time we are the "Sisters of the Poor".Great programs have fans that come to see their team play.That's one reason why Texas,LSU,Alabama,Clemson Arkansas, and Florida schedule UNT. Lessor programs have fans that come out to see who their team plays. Big difference.

Army of Dad · September 14, 2016

1 hour ago, wardly said:

I'm sure Florida fans feel the same way about UNT as we do about last week's opponent. Why schedule a team that no one gives a shit about? I have no experience at scheduling games, and don't really know how hard it is to do in order to balance the budget and satisfy fans. Personally, I have no problem with an annual home game against a 1AA opponent. My preference would be the Southland Conference .Closer,probably cheaper, and might bring some fans.

Gator fans don't mind a theoretically overmatched opponent since they get lots of marquee matchups in SEC play and also play FSU every year and I think they are rekindling the Miami series.

FCS games are supposed to be an easier win for us and can help get bowl eligibility so they have their place for G5 programs...

Cr1028 · September 14, 2016

2 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

Recruits that want to go to P5 school but got passed over want to at least play against P5 teams whenever possible.

This is a good point. Many of them look at it as their best way to catch the eye of NFL scouts and I can promise you none, unless Mean Joe is still scouting, watched our win over B-C.

mad dog · September 14, 2016

I think the body bag game vs. home game payout is an interesting one. I don't have exact numbers on number of seats per price point, promotions and discounts, or average purchase rates per price point. However, you can always bar napkin the thing using the most conservative numbers possible and nudging them with some assumptions.

Apogee's capacity is 30,850. The highest ticket tier (face value) is $30. So, assume a sellout with no promotional discounts, all at the highest price point of $30 per ticket. In that case, the gate would be $925,500. I don't count MGC donations because I think those are going to be the same regardless of how many home games there are (they may prorate them down if there are fewer home games, but I don't think it's going to be much). When you assume a more realistic attendance, maybe the highwater average attendance of 21,030 in 2013, that number drops to $630,900. If you use our average attendance from last year, it's $495,570. And, let's just say that half the tickets sold are at the lower $10 price point, a realistic number is probably pretty close to $330,380.

If you buy my logic there (and it may not be worth buying), unless your expenses are a half-million dollars, you're probably coming out way ahead in a million dollar bodybag game scenario. Financially speaking, anyway.

I don't work in an athletic office, but I assume there's a very good reason why they schedule them. The AD and coaches might not like it any more than we do, but until we get a saudi oil baron to sponsor the team, it may be necessary to make ends meet.

Harry · September 14, 2016

41 minutes ago, mad dog said:

I think the body bag game vs. home game payout is an interesting one. I don't have exact numbers on number of seats per price point, promotions and discounts, or average purchase rates per price point. However, you can always bar napkin the thing using the most conservative numbers possible and nudging them with some assumptions.

Apogee's capacity is 30,850. The highest ticket tier (face value) is $30. So, assume a sellout with no promotional discounts, all at the highest price point of $30 per ticket. In that case, the gate would be $925,500. I don't count MGC donations because I think those are going to be the same regardless of how many home games there are (they may prorate them down if there are fewer home games, but I don't think it's going to be much). When you assume a more realistic attendance, maybe the highwater average attendance of 21,030 in 2013, that number drops to $630,900. If you use our average attendance from last year, it's $495,570. And, let's just say that half the tickets sold are at the lower $10 price point, a realistic number is probably pretty close to $330,380.

If you buy my logic there (and it may not be worth buying), unless your expenses are a half-million dollars, you're probably coming out way ahead in a million dollar bodybag game scenario. Financially speaking, anyway.

I don't work in an athletic office, but I assume there's a very good reason why they schedule them. The AD and coaches might not like it any more than we do, but until we get a saudi oil baron to sponsor the team, it may be necessary to make ends meet.

I will add to this, that Georgia game a couple of years back may have been one of the most exciting games we have had in awhile. Even a good performance in a loss in this type of game can be helpful to the morale of the fanbase. The ever elusive "signature" win is still something we mathematically should have in our favor since in my opinion it has not happened in the modern era. Think what the impact of something like that would have on this program!

GMG81 · September 14, 2016

1 hour ago, mad dog said:

I think the body bag game vs. home game payout is an interesting one. I don't have exact numbers on number of seats per price point, promotions and discounts, or average purchase rates per price point. However, you can always bar napkin the thing using the most conservative numbers possible and nudging them with some assumptions.

Apogee's capacity is 30,850. The highest ticket tier (face value) is $30. So, assume a sellout with no promotional discounts, all at the highest price point of $30 per ticket. In that case, the gate would be $925,500. I don't count MGC donations because I think those are going to be the same regardless of how many home games there are (they may prorate them down if there are fewer home games, but I don't think it's going to be much). When you assume a more realistic attendance, maybe the highwater average attendance of 21,030 in 2013, that number drops to $630,900. If you use our average attendance from last year, it's $495,570. And, let's just say that half the tickets sold are at the lower $10 price point, a realistic number is probably pretty close to $330,380.

If you buy my logic there (and it may not be worth buying), unless your expenses are a half-million dollars, you're probably coming out way ahead in a million dollar bodybag game scenario. Financially speaking, anyway.

I don't work in an athletic office, but I assume there's a very good reason why they schedule them. The AD and coaches might not like it any more than we do, but until we get a saudi oil baron to sponsor the team, it may be necessary to make ends meet.

I can buy the logic. I would consider that if we brought in a regional name school for a 1 and 1 series, G5 or P5, attendance would be far closer to the 21k+ than last years average of 13k. Now another variable that has to be accounted for is the student turnout. For a regional game, like most games, they churn out 4 to 8k on any given game. For a regional game you have to imagine it is closer to 8k+ than 4k. Do we accout them as potential profit off ticket sales since their admission goes off of the athletic fee embedded into their tuition? If so that's almost 100k off of your 600k+ figure. Now on the flip side of that, we have to consider expenses for these P5 road games. What is lodging for close to 100 people in Florida? Travel expenses to and from, food, equipment haul, etc. Like you said, we must stay in the black because we keep doing them. But how far and is it finanically worth drowning the programs perception a little deeper each and every year? I like to think that it's not. I like to think that our new AD will start to make these an every other year occurrence. Needless to say, it will take winning to rewrite the equation.

Army of Dad · September 14, 2016

45 minutes ago, Harry said:

I will add to this, that Georgia game a couple of years back may have been one of the most exciting games we have had in awhile. Even a good performance in a loss in this type of game can be helpful to the morale of the fanbase. The ever elusive "signature" win is still something we mathematically should have in our favor since in my opinion it has not happened in the modern era. Think what the impact of something like that would have on this program!

That signature win is significantly more likely to occur at home than on the road in 'insert P5 juggernaut home stadium'...

untjim1995 · September 14, 2016

1 hour ago, mad dog said:

I think the body bag game vs. home game payout is an interesting one. I don't have exact numbers on number of seats per price point, promotions and discounts, or average purchase rates per price point. However, you can always bar napkin the thing using the most conservative numbers possible and nudging them with some assumptions.

Apogee's capacity is 30,850. The highest ticket tier (face value) is $30. So, assume a sellout with no promotional discounts, all at the highest price point of $30 per ticket. In that case, the gate would be $925,500. I don't count MGC donations because I think those are going to be the same regardless of how many home games there are (they may prorate them down if there are fewer home games, but I don't think it's going to be much). When you assume a more realistic attendance, maybe the highwater average attendance of 21,030 in 2013, that number drops to $630,900. If you use our average attendance from last year, it's $495,570. And, let's just say that half the tickets sold are at the lower $10 price point, a realistic number is probably pretty close to $330,380.

If you buy my logic there (and it may not be worth buying), unless your expenses are a half-million dollars, you're probably coming out way ahead in a million dollar bodybag game scenario. Financially speaking, anyway.

I don't work in an athletic office, but I assume there's a very good reason why they schedule them. The AD and coaches might not like it any more than we do, but until we get a saudi oil baron to sponsor the team, it may be necessary to make ends meet.

I agree on the need for the body bag game to pay the bills, as its a necessity for most lower level G5s. But the FCS home game is what I hate. I just think its a colossal waste of time and money.

I still go back to this, but if--and its a huge if at this point--SMU stays on the schedule, they provide us with the absolute best outlet to take advantage of the schedule. Sign BYU to a home-and-home, as well as our game with Army. When you play OOC games, you play SMU at home, at bodybag, @Army, and a home game with BYU. Next year, you play at bodybag, at BYU, home against Army, and what is basically a neutral site game in Dallas against SMU.

Just seems like a pretty good use of location on many levels to get a great OOC opponent here to play us.

GrandGreen · September 14, 2016

20 hours ago, Army of Dad said:

Gator fans don't mind a theoretically overmatched opponent since they get lots of marquee matchups in SEC play and also play FSU every year and I think they are rekindling the Miami series.

FCS games are supposed to be an easier win for us and can help get bowl eligibility so they have their place for G5 programs...

I doubt many Gator fans are in love with an oc schedule of UMass, NT and Presbyterian. But it doesn't matter to a school that is going to sell a ton of season tickets no matter what the oc schedule is.

Mike Jackson · September 15, 2016

10 hours ago, GMG81 said:

I can buy the logic. I would consider that if we brought in a regional name school for a 1 and 1 series, G5 or P5, attendance would be far closer to the 21k+ than last years average of 13k. Now another variable that has to be accounted for is the student turnout. For a regional game, like most games, they churn out 4 to 8k on any given game. For a regional game you have to imagine it is closer to 8k+ than 4k. Do we accout them as potential profit off ticket sales since their admission goes off of the athletic fee embedded into their tuition? If so that's almost 100k off of your 600k+ figure. Now on the flip side of that, we have to consider expenses for these P5 road games. What is lodging for close to 100 people in Florida? Travel expenses to and from, food, equipment haul, etc. Like you said, we must stay in the black because we keep doing them. But how far and is it finanically worth drowning the programs perception a little deeper each and every year? I like to think that it's not. I like to think that our new AD will start to make these an every other year occurrence. Needless to say, it will take winning to rewrite the equation.

1 hour ago, GrandGreen said:

I doubt many Gator fans are in love with an oc schedule of UMass, NT and Presbyterian. But it doesn't matter to a school that is going to sell a ton of season tickets no matter what the oc schedule is.

Two great quotes here. This issue is very connected to our conference affiliation. If we started winning consistently in CUSA it might be financially better for the football program independent a couple of years. Only an undefeated team at our level has a shot at a New Year's 6 bowl game. The CUSA champion title does little, what is more important in a win over a rank P5 team just like Houston has done the past 2 years. The scheduling would be hard but on the flip side it could be very rewarding financially and image transformative. If BYU stays independent we have 3 1/2 scheduling options. I say 1/2 because the best we could hope for with Norte Dame is a game at their place every 2 to 3 years. However that is 100 times better financially than a game against a FCS opponent students won't walk across a bridge to see for free. I know independence even for short time frame is pie in the sky. But we are in a desperate state right now. If the football relevance of our football conference partners don't improve drastically I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel without getting transformative coach. There are very few of those guys out there and we don't know if Seth is one of them yet. The AD has a very tough job on his hands and if I were him and just wanted to be great AD and hope to move on to being an AD at powerhouse I would swing for the fences. And going independent is something I would flesh out the feasibility of the details and consider. Winning will rewrite the equation but we have to win HUGE here to dig out of where we are now. You need 3 consecutive seasons with 4 losses or less. Also you need to throw in 2 victories of P5 opponents and a decent bowl game win over a program with substantial bowl history (15+). That is a very tall order and I am not sure CUSA scheduling requirements will help you get there. What do you guys think? With an independent schedule how would rank the attractiveness of against G5 (& Army) opponents listed below. (Let me explain the logic of the list. The SEC and ACC has the football interest east of Texas locked down there are few good G5 programs out there that don't have marketability in DFW. Therefore I left programs like Western Kentucky, UAB, and all of CUSA East out of the list. The list not coincidently has most of MWC conference in it besides Hawaii, and San Jose State. The Mountain West market is more sparsely populated but the market is less crowded. Boise State and BYU have national recognition in part because they dominated this region of the country especially before the PAC 12 reached east to grab Utah and Colorado. A good litmus test is a non football fan knowing generally where a school is located by its name. The less a program has of that and football history the more people are inclined to skip the game)

SMU
Tulane
Army
La Tech
Colorado State
San Diego State
Air Force
UTSA
UTEP
RIce
Houston* may not be G5 for long
Air Force
Tulsa
Memphis
Southern Miss
Arkansas State
Boise State
Texas State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Utah State
Fresno State
UNLV
Nevada

Thank you for taking the time to read my mental exercise. And if you read all this you might be interested in my conclusion. Going independent is even more attractive to me than when I started writing this. It could allow us to build and maintain in Texas rivalries, get into the MWC viewing market, open up financially prestigiously rewarding scheduling opportunities with P5 opponents. With that flexibility and some luck a great AD could work miracles. How does 4 year home and home series with BYU sound, 1 home 2 away series with OSU, home and home with Arizona or Arizona State, Colorado, or hell even a home and home (or 1 for 2) with Nebraska? 1. Get a marginal floundering P5 program with history & name recognition into Apogee. 2. Beat them 3. Watch the program transform. (But you have to win leading up to that game and follow it with a overall wining season.)

CMJ · September 15, 2016

3 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

Two great quotes here. This issue is very connected to our conference affiliation. If we started winning consistently in CUSA it might be financially better for the football program independent a couple of years. Only an undefeated team at our level has a shot at a New Year's 6 bowl game. The CUSA champion title does little, what is more important in a win over a rank P5 team just like Houston has done the past 2 years. The scheduling would be hard but on the flip side it could be very rewarding financially and image transformative. If BYU stays independent we have 3 1/2 scheduling options. I say 1/2 because the best we could hope for with Norte Dame is a game at their place every 2 to 3 years. However that is 100 times better financially than a game against a FCS opponent students won't walk across a bridge to see for free. I know independence even for short time frame is pie in the sky. But we are in a desperate state right now. If the football relevance of our football conference partners don't improve drastically I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel without getting transformative coach. There are very few of those guys out there and we don't know if Seth is one of them yet. The AD has a very tough job on his hands and if I were him and just wanted to be great AD and hope to move on to being an AD at powerhouse I would swing for the fences. And going independent is something I would flesh out the feasibility of the details and consider. Winning will rewrite the equation but we have to win HUGE here to dig out of where we are now. You need 3 consecutive seasons with 4 losses or less. Also you need to throw in 2 victories of P5 opponents and a decent bowl game win over a program with substantial bowl history (15+). That is a very tall order and I am not sure CUSA scheduling requirements will help you get there. What do you guys think? With an independent schedule how would rank the attractiveness of against G5 (& Army) opponents listed below. (Let me explain the logic of the list. The SEC and ACC has the football interest east of Texas locked down there are few good G5 programs out there that don't have marketability in DFW. Therefore I left programs like Western Kentucky, UAB, and all of CUSA East out of the list. The list not coincidently has most of MWC conference in it besides Hawaii, and San Jose State. The Mountain West market is more sparsely populated but the market is less crowded. Boise State and BYU have national recognition in part because they dominated this region of the country especially before the PAC 12 reached east to grab Utah and Colorado. A good litmus test is a non football fan knowing generally where a school is located by its name. The less a program has of that and football history the more people are inclined to skip the game)

SMU

Tulane

Army

La Tech

Colorado State

San Diego State

Air Force

UTSA

UTEP

RIce

Houston* may not be G5 for long

Air Force

Tulsa

Memphis

Southern Miss

Arkansas State

Boise State

Texas State

New Mexico

New Mexico State

Utah State

Fresno State

UNLV

Nevada

Thank you for taking the time to read my mental exercise. And if you read all this you might be interested in my conclusion. Going independent is even more attractive to me than when I started writing this. It could allow us to build and maintain in Texas rivalries, get into the MWC viewing market, open up financially prestigiously rewarding scheduling opportunities with P5 opponents. With that flexibility and some luck a great AD could work miracles. How does 4 year home and home series with BYU sound, 1 home 2 away series with OSU, home and home with Arizona or Arizona State, Colorado, or hell even a home and home (or 1 for 2) with Nebraska? 1. Get a marginal floundering P5 program with history & name recognition into Apogee. 2. Beat them 3. Watch the program transform. (But you have to win leading up to that game and follow it with a overall wining season.)

greenminer · September 15, 2016

Going independent is consistently the most ridiculous recommendation I read here. It seems to come up about once a year.

it didn't work. It won't work. We would flop. You lose conference money. We have zero leverage in scheduling. We don't have the national brand name of Notre Dame, BYU, etc.

we would have to win against elite opponents immediately to establish relevance, which we are not in a position to do.

we would disappear off the media radar and fall into a rabbit hole that would doom our AD.

Edited September 15, 2016 by greenminer

untjim1995 · September 15, 2016

15 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

I doubt many Gator fans are in love with an oc schedule of UMass, NT and Presbyterian. But it doesn't matter to a school that is going to sell a ton of season tickets no matter what the oc schedule is.

That's true--but they do get their SEC schools and host FSU every other year to balance it out.

My Aggie buddies basically say the same thing--yes, they hate playing Prairie View A&M, and other G5s, but they know that they will play Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and another SEC East team to come to College Station every other year.

My Texas buddies are the ones who aren't real happy with their home schedules--1 big power conference team, 2 G5 opponents, then the Big XII teams sans OU. This year, for example, they got Notre Dame, but follow it up with UTEP, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia,and TCU (day after Thanksgiving). If it weren't for Notre Dame, they aren't playing anyone that their fans really care a ton about.

Cerebus · September 15, 2016

1 hour ago, greenminer said:

Going independent is consistently the most ridiculous recommendation I read here. It seems to come up about once a year.

It's an incredibly good plan if your goal is to get us back to 1AA/FCS.

untjim1995 · September 15, 2016

10 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

It's an incredibly good plan if your goal is to get us back to 1AA/FCS.

Or for the program to get killed altogether. Worst idea ever...hell, Penn State, Miami, Florida State, and Pitt all realized how important a conference relationship is versus being independent.

Mike Jackson · September 16, 2016

On September 15, 2016 at 10:16 AM, untjim1995 said:

Or for the program to get killed altogether. Worst idea ever...hell, Penn State, Miami, Florida State, and Pitt all realized how important a conference relationship is versus being independent.

I had a clearly stated plan and if the details are in place I am in 100% agreement that going independent is bad idea. But if you do the scheduling prep work and have your scheduled covered for a 5 year period before you announce the move officially I believe it would work. The comments critiqued my suggestion without looking at the details of the plan. If you make the phone calls, work your professional/person network and feel you don't have possibility of building a schedule that sufficiently balance financial responsibility and competitive rewards you don't do it clearly. But let's get real this is a Seth better succeed or else this program could be financially unsupportable. And FCS may be in this program's future if it doesn't start winning big in CUSA. The Mean Green ran rough shot over the Sun Belt for 4 years. And Fouts never got more than maybe 28, 000 during that time. And even that figure is fudged because I was there for most of those games and you could play catch in the end zone stand not disturb anyone. I am familiar with all the excuses: No rivalries, Sun Belt opponents too far away, OOC opponents with little football history or regional relevance. Other than SMU what team is a causal fan or student board on a Saturday night is going to show up to see? The home schedule is garbage till 2021 unless our conference changes. Until Apogee starts averaging 25,000 per game UNT will be ignored by better conferences so independent or not the outlook is the same. Win huge or else this program is in more trouble than we would like to acknowledge. What is $425,000 CUSA per team payout vs unlimited opportunities?

Edited September 17, 2016 by Mike Jackson