Scheduling - Opportunities and Challenges

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

In reviewing P5s scheduling road games against G5s, there were some trend that were what you'd expect, and some surprises.

The most common trend is that when it comes to P5s scheduling G5s, they tend to stay within their geographic regions.  That makes sense because you do want your fans to be able to travel in good numbers to support your team.

The other trend is, it just doesn't happen very often, in any conference.  The ACC has the most schools playing at G5s.  But, it really drops down after them.  It's just not something P5s see as a necessity to their program. 

P5s are trying to get more home games, not less, with their OOC scheduling.  And, it especially has become an issue in the Big 12 where only three OOC slots are available each season for its schools.

The two biggest surprises to me were these: (1) the lack of G5 roadies by Big 12 schools against Texas G5s, and (2) Texas A&M with no Texas G5 roadies scheduled at all.

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

So, let's discuss why some issues and challenges about the Big 12 scheduling, because it is the nearest conference.

First, the Big 12 schools are already playing games in Texas each season.  They have TCU, Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech to visit every other year.  So, they are getting exposure in Texas for their recruiting already. 

In addition, the Big 12 has bowl ties to the Cotton Bowl (Arlington/DFW), Alamo Bowl (San Antonio/Central Texas), Sun Bowl (El Paso), and Texas Bowl (Houston).  Thus, four Big 12 schools are in Texas for an additional game during bowl season.

As far as Dallas goes, everyone plays TCU every other year.  In addition, Texas and Oklahoma play each other annually in Dallas.  And, Baylor and Texas Tech play each other annually in Arlington. 

Some keep bringing up SMU's past series with Baylor and Texas A&M.  That's all good an well, but those series are over, and they have not been renewed.  Baylor, after they had begun their now completed SMU series, then signed to play Texas Tech in Arlington. No more need for a series with SMU to give their DFW area alumni a chance to see the team near their homes.

It's the same story with Texas A&M, though now in the SEC, they are in a series with Arkansas through 2020 to play their games against the Razorbacks in Arlington. 

 

 

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

What about the next nearest P5, the SEC?

Here is where I was surprised.  But, let's look at the most likely candidates geographically:  Texas A&M, LSU, and Arkansas.

Texas A&M, for all intents and purposes, already owns the Houston market.  Texas-leaning people can argue that they hold as much media sway there, and they may.  But, either way, it doesn't help us. 

Texas A&M is shored up in the DFW market with its Arkansas series in Arlington, as we've already mentioned.  If I were a betting man, I'd wager that Jerry Jones, an Arkansas grad, Texas A&M and Arkansas are probably discussing extending the series beyond 2020. 

With Arkansas, again, it's the Texas A&M game.  Why would they give up an OOC game slots to come the the DFW area again to play a G5 whose stadium holds less than $40k?  it doesn't make sense for them to do it.

The same can be said for LSU.  Along with Texas and Texas A&M, LSU gets the type of press in Houston that Oklahoma gets in Dallas - the most right after A&M and UT.

LSU does come to Texas, but not to any old stadium.  In the future, they have games scheduled in Houston and the DFW area:

2017:  at Houston's NRG for the Advocare Kickoff...versus BYU.  Yes, they are playing G5 BYU in Texas at the Houston Texan's home field.
2018:  at Jerry World in Arlington for the Cowboy Kickoff Classic against Miami (FL), The U.  In the DFW are, but not against a G5
2019:  at Texas as part of a home-and-home scheduled with the Longhorns for 2019 and 2020.
2020:  at Houston's NRG against Rice.  Finally, LSU in Texas against a G5...but, not at the G5's home stadium.

As for the SEC as a whole, because Texas A&M is in the conference, the Western Division schools (Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss) are already in the state every other year to play the Aggies.  The Eastern Division schools rotate in as well.

 

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

Part of the problem is that, once you dice down the 21 games that P5s are playing against Texas G5s, you will find that only four of them are going to be played in a stadium that holds fewer than 50,000 fans.

Two of those are TCU's Skillet games at SMU.  The other two are the Baylor (2022) and Arizona State (2024) games scheduled at Texas State. 

Our stadium, which is nice and new, isn't as enticing to P5s as we imagine it is.  Their priorities are money and money.  We don't offer as many seat, and the games are not going to be prime time television either.

 

[MEANGREENCOACH2]

[NTXCoog]

22 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

LSU does come to Texas, but not to any old stadium.  In the future, they have games scheduled in Houston and the DFW area:

2017:  at Houston's NRG for the Advocare Kickoff...versus BYU.  Yes, they are playing G5 BYU in Texas at the Houston Texan's home field.

 

 

BYU isn't G5.  Non-P5 or Independent is more accurate.

[TreeFiddy]

BYU is considered P5 for scheduling by most of the P5.  So is Army.  I mean unless you are some sort of closet anti American commie ISIS lover how could having Army on your schedule be considered a bad thing?

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

Okay, so where are the opportunities?

I think the answer lies partially in the new athletic director's ties and those of Coach Littrell as well.  I'll rank them in the order I think as the most possible.

(1) Kentucky
Currently, the Wildcats are coached by a Stoops brother, for whom Littrell has both played and coached.  Kentucky has scheduled G5 away games at Southern Miss for 2017 Eastern Michigan for 2019.  Although they are now in the SEC, the are in the Eastern Division and their rotation at Texas A&M is in 2018.

We both have a lot of OOC spaces to fill past 2021.  This would be a good sell to get Kentucky into Texas, if they have any interest in recruiting here.  Currently, the Wildcats have zero Texas players on their roster.  

The only problem could be if they fire Mark Stoops, the connection back to Littrell is gone.

(2) and (3) The Arizona schools
Both Arizona and Arizona State show the propensity to go into Texas and schedule what look to be winnable games.  Littrell spent three years in Tucson as Mike Stoops' RB coach and OC.  Arizona AD Greg Byrne was the the AD there for the last two years Littrell was there with Stoops. 

Both schools recruit Texas, particularly Arizona State which as 15 Texas players on its roster, most of those from the DFW area, including one from Denton.  Many of their coaches have Texas ties, not just with Todd Graham, but former ACU head coach Chris Thomsen, RC Slocum's son Shawn, former Texas and OU assitant Jay Norvell, and longtime A&M administrator Tim Cassidy.

(4) Indiana
Already been there and done that, you way?  Well, it is a Big Ten school.  And, Littrell did work for the head coach.  The 2011 win was great.  Would be an interesting matchup between the former student and the teacher...if both last until 2022.  If not, just get it on the schedule because the Hoosiers are about the only Big Ten school that will go on the road to G5s.

(5) And (6) The Kansas schools
In the past, both Kansas and Kansas State have come to play us.  Granted, the Kansas game was at old Texas Stadium, but....

These are schools that have a dearth of high school talent, and have in the past mined Texas for its stars, both at the JUCO and prep levels.  They will need to continue to do so because Nebraska and Oklahoma still often raid Kansas when it does turn out the rare national recruit.

FINALLY
To create other opportunities, I think we'd have to do what Rice and Houston do - sacrifice an on campus home game to the alter of the nearest NFL or Bowl venue.

Close to us, we have Jerry World.  And, we have the old, refurbished Cotton Bowl. 

It's not likely that the old Cotton Bowl would entice many.  But, perhaps Jerry World would.  I look at the LSU "visit" to Rice in 2020 as the example.  I think to hook the big, big fish like an LSU, you have to offer something over and above.  Without NRG, LSU doesn't go to Rice. 

Oklahoma doesn't go to Houston's new on campus stadium, it goes to NRG.

Are Rice and Houston likely to win against LSU and Oklahoma?  No.  Both will be pummeled.  But, they are pummeled on "closer to home" turf, instead of traveling to LSU or OU for the pleasure.  You host the game, you get the recruits visits, technically.  And, more seats than LSU or OU would give you for your fans.  

Plus, the television exposure is going to be bigger than you have with your normal C-USA outlets.

 

 

Edited August 12, 2016 by MeanGreenMailbox

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

14 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

BYU is considered P5 for scheduling by most of the P5.  So is Army.  I mean unless you are some sort of closet anti American commie ISIS lover how could having Army on your schedule be considered a bad thing?

Well, since this is the case, that's even fewer G5s than before.  BYU made up quite a bit of the G5 equation.  Thanks for the catch.  Not the best of news for us or other G5s hoping to get P5s on campus. 

[TreeFiddy]

2 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Well, since this is the case, that's even fewer G5s than before.  BYU made up quite a bit of the G5 equation.  Thanks for the catch.  Not the best of news for us or other G5s hoping to get P5s on campus. 

I should have included Navy as well.  Army/Navy/BYU are looked at differently by the P5.

[Aldo]

5 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

I should have included Navy as well.  Army/Navy/BYU are looked at differently by the P5.

Navy is now AAC

[TripleGrad]

I wonder, though, what the value is to being "pummeled closer to home."  I don't recall what year NT played A&M at the old Texas Stadium, but that was effectively a home game for the Aggies.  The handful of green in the stands was almost meaningless. How does that help, other than padding attendance stats?

 

Edited August 12, 2016 by TripleGrad

[Quoner]

7 minutes ago, TripleGrad said:

I wonder, though, what the value is to being "pummeled closer to home."  I don't recall what year NT played A&M at the old Texas Stadium, but that was effectively a home game for the Aggies.  The handful of green in the stands was almost meaningless. How does that help, other than padding attendance stats?

 

It was 10-10 at halftime. If that had happened anywhere near DFW recently, most of this board would still be talking about a random bad call in the 3rd quarter as a conspiracy and screen printing t-shirts for the next game.

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

15 minutes ago, TripleGrad said:

I wonder, though, what the value is to being "pummeled closer to home."  I don't recall what year NT played A&M at the old Texas Stadium, but that was effectively a home game for the Aggies.  The handful of green in the stands was almost meaningless. How does that help, other than padding attendance stats?

 

That's a great question.  But, one that Rice answers by going ahead and letting it happen.  Surely, it must come close enough to equaling or surpassing what gate they'd gets at old Rice Stadium or they wouldn't move it.

[UNT90]

5 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

In reviewing P5s scheduling road games against G5s, there were some trend that were what you'd expect, and some surprises.

The most common trend is that when it comes to P5s scheduling G5s, they tend to stay within their geographic regions.  That makes sense because you do want your fans to be able to travel in good numbers to support your team.

The other trend is, it just doesn't happen very often, in any conference.  The ACC has the most schools playing at G5s.  But, it really drops down after them.  It's just not something P5s see as a necessity to their program. 

P5s are trying to get more home games, not less, with their OOC scheduling.  And, it especially has become an issue in the Big 12 where only three OOC slots are available each season for its schools.

The two biggest surprises to me were these: (1) the lack of G5 roadies by Big 12 schools against Texas G5s, and (2) Texas A&M with no Texas G5 roadies scheduled at all.

Right. Just 25 times by Big 12 teams alone with G5s by your own count. Zero with UNT. 

You have now started 2 threads in an attempt to spin your way to bring right ro defend the indefensible RV scheduling which you have consistently defended.

When I warned that a loss to an FCS at home could cause unbelievable damage to this fragile program, you poo pooed it away.

Then it happened.

Every other CUSA mate but one has a P5 at home on future schedules. You ignore this.

All to defend the indefensible. 

Its ok to admit when you are wrong. Really 

[UTSA Fan]

17 hours ago, UNT90 said:

Right. Just 25 times by Big 12 teams alone with G5s by your own count. Zero with UNT. 

You have now started 2 threads in an attempt to spin your way to bring right ro defend the indefensible RV scheduling which you have consistently defended.

When I warned that a loss to an FCS at home could cause unbelievable damage to this fragile program, you poo pooed it away.

Then it happened.

Every other CUSA mate but one has a P5 at home on future schedules. You ignore this.

All to defend the indefensible. 

Its ok to admit when you are wrong. Really 

What are the ideal qualities of the P5 you want at home?

[TreeFiddy]

19 hours ago, Aldo said:

Navy is now AAC

Ya, I get that they moved, but they are still Navy and teams look at them differently than they do the other AAC teams.  Talk about having the same OOC schedule every year, Navy plays Notre Dame, Army, and Air Force for the next 10 years.  They have 1 open slot each year (unless they choose to play Hawaii).

[NTXCoog]

On Friday, August 12, 2016 at 1:20 PM, TreeFiddy said:

BYU is considered P5 for scheduling by most of the P5.  So is Army.  I mean unless you are some sort of closet anti American commie ISIS lover how could having Army on your schedule be considered a bad thing?

Temple and other AAC schools were also considered P5s for scheduling purposes last year. Doesn't make them P5

[TreeFiddy]

I will have to take your word for it. I don't recall seeing statements from conferences stating teams like Temple were considered P5 opponents for scheduling purposes but I did see that for BYU/Navy/Army. 

[UNT90]

Let's recap what has happened. TFLF set out to do research to prove his point that P5s schedules were as locked up as UNTs for the foreseeable future.

TFLF found his hypothesis to be untrue.

So instead of just saying "hey, I was wrong. They aren't scheduled as far out as UNT," TFLF shifted gears and narratives to explain, according to his own wild assed opinions, why P5s wouldn't schedule a home game with UNT. 

And he started 2 seperate threads to do so. 

With the first 5 posts in this thread  being his "explanations." 

Seems to me admitting you were wrong would have been a whole lot easier.

[Ben Gooding]

22 hours ago, UTSA Fan said:

What are the ideal qualities of the P5 you want at home?

Beatable. Nothing else matters. BC to Miami, to USC to Seattle. Just  beatable. Last thing I want is for a P5 team to come in and beat the dogshit out of us at home. We currently have to worry about FCS programs doing that to us let alone P5's. 

[UNT90]

34 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Beatable. Nothing else matters. BC to Miami, to USC to Seattle. Just  beatable. Last thing I want is for a P5 team to come in and beat the dogshit out of us at home. We currently have to worry about FCS programs doing that to us let alone P5's. 

No.

Beating 1-11 Indiana did nothing for UNT.

Recognizable P5 locally (preferably a Big 12 P5) that is at least mid pack in their conference. Beating Kansas at Apogee doesn't do much more for UNT than beating SMU.

Ok St., Texas Tech, K St., Iowa St. are all good options.

From the SEC, Miss. St., Ole Miss would be good. 

This should be the mindset. Challenge your program to get competitive. Losing by 40 sucks, be it at home or on the road. There is a far greater chance of keeping games closer at home and potentially winning against P5s than there is on the road.

And Good God does this program need a defining win against a team that matters.

Edited August 14, 2016 by UNT90

[Ben Gooding]

27 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

No.

Beating 1-11 Indiana did nothing for UNT.

Recognizable P5 locally (preferably a Big 12 P5) that is at least mid pack in their conference. Beating Kansas at Apogee doesn't do much more for UNT than beating SMU.

Ok St., Texas Tech, K St., Iowa St. are all good options.

From the SEC, Miss. St., Ole Miss would be good. 

This should be the mindset. Challenge your program to get competitive. Losing by 40 sucks, be it at home or on the road. There is a far greater chance of keeping games closer at home and potentially winning against P5s than there is on the road.

And Good God does this program need a defining win against a team that matters.

There is no such thing as A defining win. Ask Monroe, they'll tell you all about it. We neee to win in the leauge we're in while getting a P5 at home that is beatable. If we can ever get good then I'm not opposed to any of the teams you mentioned. If we're garbage then I'm opposed to all if them bc all it will do is get casual alum eyes on us to watch us get pummeled. Then it just solidifies what all the casuals thought of us, a joke of an athletic program. It's a slippery slope to get on, but a slope we need to get on eventually...when the timing is right. A 2018 or 2019 scheduled home game with one of the aforementioned, I'm good. If we have to do an emergency backfill of our schedule for whatever reason, pleae keep them away for the time being. 

[NTXCoog]

1 hour ago, TreeFiddy said:

I will have to take your word for it. I don't recall seeing statements from conferences stating teams like Temple were considered P5 opponents for scheduling purposes but I did see that for BYU/Navy/Army.

I'll correct myself.  I thought Temple was, and they may be, but according to this article, UConn and Cincy definitely were. 

The funniest quote: " Rudner added the league would evaluate any other non-Power 5 schools -- programs in the AAC, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt leagues -- brought up by a Big Ten school and decide whether they would count as Power 5 opponents based on their RPI rankings in recent years and other factors. "  Considering UConn hadn't won more than 5 games in a season in 5 years, I highly doubt their RPI in recent years were P5 worthy.  The "other factors" were probably that they were already on a Big 10 schedule, and the B1G didn't want that team to have to buy out those games or other OOC games.

[UNT90]

1 hour ago, Ben Gooding said:

There is no such thing as A defining win. Ask Monroe, they'll tell you all about it. We neee to win in the leauge we're in while getting a P5 at home that is beatable. If we can ever get good then I'm not opposed to any of the teams you mentioned. If we're garbage then I'm opposed to all if them bc all it will do is get casual alum eyes on us to watch us get pummeled. Then it just solidifies what all the casuals thought of us, a joke of an athletic program. It's a slippery slope to get on, but a slope we need to get on eventually...when the timing is right. A 2018 or 2019 scheduled home game with one of the aforementioned, I'm good. If we have to do an emergency backfill of our schedule for whatever reason, pleae keep them away for the time being. 

Ask TCU. They will tell you about it. Ask Boise St. They will tell you about it. 

Small time thinking will keep this program small time. Stop leading the charge. 

Of course I'm not talking about this year. I am talking about 3 or 4 years out. Always have been. If you believe in Littrell, you shouldn't have a problem with this.

So why are you arguing when you agree with me?

Edited August 14, 2016 by UNT90