SMU opens -10.5 versus UNT

Grant.UNT · August 10, 2016

I'm all for playing SMU, and any other regional opponents. I say keep 'em on the schedule every year. Create a silver boot, golden bluebonnet, etc.

Ryan Munthe · August 10, 2016

5 minutes ago, Mean_Green09 said:

75 compared to 102 is a difference in talent. I never said they were a team with top 25 talent like Houston.If we faced Houston the line would be close to the 25-30 range.

Houston's class was ranked 35th last year with an avg player rating of 85.49. SMU 81.24 and UNT once Johnson and Hayes are removed checks in at about 77. So there is a pretty big difference in talent just acquired this year.

They beat us by 18 last year when they were bad and we were bad. Both teams are a little better this year.

The reason for a 10 point dog is what happened last year and the thought process that while NT has improved they haven't improved enough to justify a smaller opening line.

QB that hasnt played. Team with very questionable depth. OL is very shaky. A defense that was terrible last year. Minor talent additions.

Wouldn't say minor talent additions.

2 minutes ago, Grant.UNT said:

I'm all for playing SMU, and any other regional opponents. I say keep 'em on the schedule every year. Create a silver boot, golden bluebonnet, etc.

Unfortunately, as soon as SMU can get out of the series, they will. Mark it.

TreeFiddy · August 10, 2016

All things being equal, a line will change roughly 6 points when moving a game from an away game to a home game. We lost by 18 on the road last year so a 10-12 point line would be perfectly reasonable.

However, there is no way the oddsmakers have put in a lot of time analyzing this game due the likely low amount of money that will be wagered on it.

Ryan Munthe · August 10, 2016

1 minute ago, TreeFiddy said:

However, there is no way the oddsmakers have put in a lot of time analyzing this game due the likely low amount of money that will be wagered on it.

yep, exactly. It'll probably move down to 7 before the game, I would expect, which is reasonable.

Ben Gooding · August 10, 2016

14 minutes ago, Mean_Green09 said:

75 compared to 102 is a difference in talent. I never said they were a team with top 25 talent like Houston.If we faced Houston the line would be close to the 25-30 range.

Houston's class was ranked 35th last year with an avg player rating of 85.49. SMU 81.24 and UNT once Johnson and Hayes are removed checks in at about 77. So there is a pretty big difference in talent just acquired this year.

They beat us by 18 last year when they were bad and we were bad. Both teams are a little better this year.

The reason for a 10 point dog is what happened last year and the thought process that while NT has improved they haven't improved enough to justify a smaller opening line.

QB that hasnt played. Team with very questionable depth. OL is very shaky. A defense that was terrible last year. Minor talent additions.

That is an understatement. Our QB addition is a HUGE talent addition in comparison to the past.

Ryan Munthe · August 10, 2016

Just now, Ben Gooding said:

That is an understatement. Our QB addition is a HUGE talent addition in comparison to the past.

People are missing just how good Alec Morris really is. From every account, he's head and shoulders the best QB UNT has had in a very, very, very long time.

Mean_Green09 · August 10, 2016

4 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

That is an understatement. Our QB addition is a HUGE talent addition in comparison to the past.

3 minutes ago, Ryan Munthe said:

People are missing just how good Alec Morris really is. From every account, he's head and shoulders the best QB UNT has had in a very, very, very long time.

I'm not disagreeing with you guys about Morris (bc I really like him and think he can put up tremendous numbers), but outsiders looking at our program would view our additions this past off-season as minor. Your looking at the 10pt line as a NT fan with big time optimism. Vegas isnt looking at it that way.

Ben Gooding · August 10, 2016

3 minutes ago, Mean_Green09 said:

I'm not disagreeing with you guys about Morris (bc I really like him and think he can put up tremendous numbers), but outsiders looking at our program would view our additions this past off-season as minor. Your looking at the 10pt line as a NT fan with big time optimism. Vegas isnt looking at it that way.

Vegas is looking to make money. smug fans will probably bet more heavily than UNT fans on smug. Casual betters in general will bet more heavily on smug bc of ignorance. I am not arguing the line, I am just laying down a rebuttal. And, hell, smug might come to Denton and blow us out. But I doubt it.

MGNation92 · August 10, 2016

I wouldn't be surprised to see a final score of 42-32 and having it go either way

Morris has had one more year on Littrell in terms of system and secruiting so his team, on paper, should be better. But we almost always show up in Denton, especially against smut

Should be a fun game to watch. Key to stopping smut will be to spy the shit out of Davis and not let him get 10+ yards a carry

UNT90 · August 10, 2016

2 hours ago, Mean_Green09 said:

Vegas knows what they are doing. I'd say its a fair opening line considering the talent & depth gap between the two teams.

Yep.

19 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Vegas is looking to make money. smug fans will probably bet more heavily than UNT fans on smug. Casual betters in general will bet more heavily on smug bc of ignorance. I am not arguing the line, I am just laying down a rebuttal. And, hell, smug might come to Denton and blow us out. But I doubt it.

That's not how Vegas "makes money" at all.

32 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

That is an understatement. Our QB addition is a HUGE talent addition in comparison to the past.

The Spring game suggests otherwise.

TBD.

MeanGreenTexan · August 10, 2016

10 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see a final score of 42-32 and having it go either way

Morris has had one more year on Littrell in terms of system and secruiting so his team, on paper, should be better. But we almost always show up in Denton, especially against smut

Should be a fun game to watch. Key to stopping smut will be to spy the shit out of Davis and not let him get 10+ yards a carry

Hopefully we'll have the LB/Secondary to do this now. Davis ran around Bean and Wallace like they were statues last year. I don't think he'll be able to get around Ekeler's 3-3-5 scheme as easily, unless he gets through a heavy blitz.

DeepGreen · August 10, 2016

Guys, lets be realistic on this first game and the Vegas line. We lost to FCS Portland State by more points than we care to remember. Yes, we have a new coach, new assistants, new optimism, new hope, and a new AD(Yessss!!!!). Fact is, we haven't done schit up to this point except refurbish the locker room. The spread should be more than what it is at this point.

UNT90 · August 10, 2016

1 hour ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

I don't understand the disdain for this series. All we have talked about all off season (and the past two offseasons) is the game with SMU. It allows us a home game every over year against a team our fans and students recognize and have disdain for. It allows us a road game every other year that is an easy road game to travel too.

Only older, extremely hard core fans have misplaced disdain for SMU.

Others just see them as another regional OOC game.

Aldo · August 10, 2016

6 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

Only older, extremely hard core fans have misplaced disdain for SMU.

Others just see them as another regional OOC game.

For real though, never heard of SMU till after I moved to Denton.

It's a small school.

MGNation92 · August 10, 2016

8 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

Only older, extremely hard core fans have misplaced disdain for SMU.

Others just see them as another regional OOC game.

Hell I'm 23 and I hate everything about that school. Smug, Pompous, rich, daddy's boys that have never worked a day in their life. SMU and anything related to SMU can choke on a fat one as far as I'm concerned

UNT90 · August 10, 2016

2 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

Hell I'm 23 and I hate everything about that school. Smug, Pompous, rich, daddy's boys that have never worked a day in their life. SMU and anything related to SMU can choke on a fat one as far as I'm concerned

Lolz. Hardly, but whatever it takes to pretend to have a rivalry, right?

I work with several SMU grads who are smart, hardworking peeps.

But again, that doesn't jive with your football rivalry generalizations.

So according to your view, all UNT students must be poor, stupid working class people who couldn't get into a better school, right? Because isn't that the way this foolish game works?

GrandGreen · August 10, 2016

1 hour ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

I don't understand the disdain for this series. All we have talked about all off season (and the past two offseasons) is the game with SMU. It allows us a home game every over year against a team our fans and students recognize and have disdain for. It allows us a road game every other year that is an easy road game to travel too.

The disdain is that it doesn't fit the popular narrative that anything scheduled by RV must be awful and it takes up a schedule spot that some seem to think can be filled by UT, Ohio State or the like in a home and away series.

The reality is it a very good series for both programs at this time. Both get an opponent that they match up with that their fans can easily make an away game. NT gets a very marketable game on their schedule that they should be able to compete with. SMU get an oc opponent that brings a lot of fans into Ford that they actually have some advantages over.

MeanGreenTexan · August 10, 2016

16 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

Only older, extremely hard core fans have misplaced disdain for SMU.

Others just see them as another regional OOC game.

It's the stereotypical class warfare rivalry. It's good stuff and I hope we keep it going.
The stereotypes are that SMU alumni are wealthy people who have everything in life handed to them because they came from wealth. While UNT alumni are blue-collar people making music, teaching, or other jobs to make a living.
Of course, not everyone fits into these stereotypes. I know a few SMU kids that did not come from wealth and are down-to-earth people. I know some UNT alumni who came from wealth and spoiled rotten.

MGNation92 · August 10, 2016

7 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

Lolz. Hardly, but whatever it takes to pretend to have a rivalry, right?

I work with several SMU grads who are smart, hardworking peeps.

But again, that doesn't jive with your football rivalry generalizations.

So according to your view, all UNT students must be poor, stupid working class people who couldn't get into a better school, right? Because isn't that the way this foolish game works?

How about I put it this way.

I hate SMU. Why?

UNTLifer · August 10, 2016

22 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

Lolz. Hardly, but whatever it takes to pretend to have a rivalry, right?

I work with several SMU grads who are smart, hardworking peeps.

But again, that doesn't jive with your football rivalry generalizations.

So according to your view, all UNT students must be poor, stupid working class people who couldn't get into a better school, right? Because isn't that the way this foolish game works?

I have hired two in my past. Never again. They didn't know how to work or think without someone holding their hand.

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · August 10, 2016

Oklahoma now double digit roadie over Houston as well. Gee...didn't see that one coming. Guess as the season draws nearer, the Vegas folk comb the two-deeps a little closer.

3 hours ago, Grant.UNT said:

I'll have to get with someone to go over this. I understand that we're expected to lose by 10+ but I just can't read/understand the point lines on the graph. I've never bet on anything, and i'm not going to start now. However, I would like to understand how to read the spreads.

http://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting

Cr1028 · August 10, 2016

27 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

How about I put it this way.

I hate SMU. Why?

My feelings too.

NTXCoog · August 10, 2016

18 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Oklahoma now double digit roadie over Houston as well. Gee...didn't see that one coming. Guess as the season draws nearer, the Vegas folk comb the two-deeps a little closer.

http://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting

Technically it's a neutral site game, not a roadie.

UNTLifer · August 10, 2016

14 minutes ago, NTXCoog said:

Technically it's a neutral site game, not a roadie.

Is it in Houston? It is a roadie.

All About UNT · August 10, 2016

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

It's the stereotypical class warfare rivalry. It's good stuff and I hope we keep it going.
The stereotypes are that SMU alumni are wealthy people who have everything in life handed to them because they came from wealth. While UNT alumni are blue-collar people making music, teaching, or other jobs to make a living.
Of course, not everyone fits into these stereotypes. I know a few SMU kids that did not come from wealth and are down-to-earth people. I know some UNT alumni who came from wealth and spoiled rotten.