SMU opens -10.5 versus UNT

[Harry]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

Really? Know this will be posted in the locker rooms. I guess I expect to be underdog - but 10.5 at home?

Edited August 10, 2016 by ChristopherRyanWilkes

[Ryan Munthe]

Pretty funny.

[EagleMBA]

On the bright side, Biff and Muffy might be more likely to journey to Denton to witness a rare SMUt win.  I'm sure we'll have a little something for them (nudge, nudge, wink, wink).

[southsideguy]

i might take that bet

 

[oldguystudent]

Prediction:  We lose this year because we have like 16 guys on the roster.  SMU raises its smug nose, points to the 2-1 record against, and walks away from the series.  Hopefully, that leaves us with an open game for the next 10 years that won't be Buttman Nicholls of Incarnate Sisters of the Who Cares.

Edited August 10, 2016 by oldguystudent

[Mean_Green09]

Vegas knows what they are doing. I'd say its a fair opening line considering the talent & depth gap between the two teams.

[UNTexas]

32 minutes ago, oldguystudent said:

Prediction:  We lose this year because we have like 16 guys on the roster.  SMU raises its smug nose, points to the 2-1 record against, and walks away from the series.  Hopefully, that leaves us with an open game for the next 10 years that won't be Buttman Nicholls of Incarnate Sisters of the Who Cares.

Lol. Good post. RV scheduling is like herpes, it won't go away.

After last season, a new coaching staff, and a depleted roster 10.5 is fair.

Edited August 10, 2016 by UNTexas

[Army of Dad]

17 minutes ago, oldguystudent said:

Prediction:  We lose this year because we have like 16 guys on the roster.  SMU raises its smug nose, points to the 2-1 record against, and walks away from the series.  Hopefully, that leaves us with an open game for the next 10 years that won't be Buttman Nicholls of Incarnate Sisters of the Who Cares.

I'm pretty sure they have to play us again next year, then they could break off the series.

[Grant.UNT]

I'll have to get with someone to go over this. I understand that we're expected to lose by 10+ but I just can't read/understand the point lines on the graph. I've never bet on anything, and i'm not going to start now. However, I would like to understand how to read the spreads.

[Ben Gooding]

30 minutes ago, Mean_Green09 said:

Vegas knows what they are doing. I'd say its a fair opening line considering the talent & depth gap between the two teams.

I can't say I agree with this. They are 2-22 over the last 2 seasons. Yes, they beat us last year. Yes, we were really bad last year. Yes, there has been a lot of turnover on our roster, Yes, that is a good thing. -10.5 for a home opener/season opener vs a rival should be a massive slap in the face to this team. This needs to be printed, laminated, and posted on every wall in the athletic complex. I cannot wait for this game to get here. 

[oldguystudent]

And people do understand that even if the wisest of wise guys in Vegas actually sees this as a 2 point spread, that the line is set by public perception and movement of dollars, right?  If the general public believes that SMU is 10 points better, then that's where the line gets set.  The house wants 50% of bets on each side. 

[outoftown]

As always, Vegas is not priimarily onerned with getting the odds realistic as to the result, but with getting people to bet equally on the over and under. Last season has most non-UNT fans think that this team is in a big hole -since they don't follow this closely- , plus depleted roster plus SMU playing in a better conference, plus evrybody expecting the refs to be bribed, makes SMU the autofavorit for Vegas, as most people will not look further than those things (if they do look that far). That said, I have not yet seen so much from SMU in the last season, that I am convinced Morris really is gonna be their guy long term.

Edited August 10, 2016 by outoftown

[Ben Gooding]

UNT were -3 favs in 2014. We saw how well the wise guys picked that one. Js. 

[GreenN'walinsVet]

I don't understand the disdain for this series.  All we have talked about all off season (and the past two offseasons) is the game with SMU.  It allows us a home game every over year against a team our fans and students recognize and have disdain for.  It allows us a road game every other year that is an easy road game to travel too.  

[Mean_Green09]

35 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

I can't say I agree with this. They are 2-22 over the last 2 seasons. Yes, they beat us last year. Yes, we were really bad last year. Yes, there has been a lot of turnover on our roster, Yes, that is a good thing. -10.5 for a home opener/season opener vs a rival should be a massive slap in the face to this team. This needs to be printed, laminated, and posted on every wall in the athletic complex. I cannot wait for this game to get here. 

Just going by 247 SMU has had a recruiting class ranking 81st in 2015 and 75th in 2016.

Compared to 102 and 95 for NT, and those rankings for NT are favorable considering two of our top guys didn't qualify and 5 of our 9 3 stars from 15 are no longer on the team. 

Their depth is better than ours. They've got 16 returning starters and 94% of their yard gainers back.

We have so far to go. 

10 points is a fair starting point. A TD and a FG in a shootout game. 

NT shouldnt need a Vegas line to inspire them to work harder for a rivalry game.

[MeanGreen_MBA]

20 minutes ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

I don't understand the disdain for this series.  All we have talked about all off season (and the past two offseasons) is the game with SMU.  It allows us a home game every over year against a team our fans and students recognize and have disdain for.  It allows us a road game every other year that is an easy road game to travel too.  

I agree with this.  I would love to keep SMU on the schedule permanently.  It makes sense for both school.  easy away game....recognition, recruiting....

[oldguystudent]

21 minutes ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

I don't understand the disdain for this series.  All we have talked about all off season (and the past two offseasons) is the game with SMU.  It allows us a home game every over year against a team our fans and students recognize and have disdain for.  It allows us a road game every other year that is an easy road game to travel too.  

I didn't mind it until I went to Ford last year.  I have no history or bias prejudice against SMU.  They pretty much proved everything everybody has ever said about them to be correct.  I'd really rather have nothing to do with them.  Ever.

[Ryan Munthe]

5 minutes ago, Mean_Green09 said:

Just going by 247 SMU has had a recruiting class ranking 81st in 2015 and 75th in 2016.

Compared to 102 and 95 for NT, and those rankings for NT are favorable considering two of our top guys didn't qualify and 5 of our 9 3 stars from 15 are no longer on the team. 

Their depth is better than ours. They've got 16 returning starters and 94% of their yard gainers back.

We have so far to go. 

10 points is a fair starting point. A TD and a FG in a shootout game. 

NT shouldnt need a Vegas line to inspire them to work harder for a rivalry game.

I'm sorry, but if you're going to pull recruiting rankings, 75th is nothing to write home about. It's not like they're UH. Definitely not a reason for a 10 point home dog. The line will even out at around 7, I'd expect.

Much like Mac's first year, this team will be better than anyone expected. As long as we keep Morris upright and our defense isn't bottom of the barrel, we will surprise.

Edited August 10, 2016 by Ryan Munthe

[TreeFiddy]

19 minutes ago, GreenN'walinsVet said:

I don't understand the disdain for this series.  All we have talked about all off season (and the past two offseasons) is the game with SMU.  It allows us a home game every over year against a team our fans and students recognize and have disdain for.  It allows us a road game every other year that is an easy road game to travel too.  

Agree.  It's going to be better when we replace them Balls Tate?  Troys Tate? Etc...?  

Seems mostly motivated by trying to continue to discredit the prior AD. That horse is dead.  Let it go.

 

[Ryan Munthe]

24 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

Agree.  It's going to be better when we replace them Balls Tate?  Troys Tate? Etc...?  

Seems mostly motivated by trying to continue to discredit the prior AD. That horse is dead.  Let it go.

 

It's a great series, even if SMU doesn't bring many fans.

[forevereagle]

28 minutes ago, Ryan Munthe said:

I'm sorry, but if you're going to pull recruiting rankings, 75th is nothing to write home about. It's not like they're UH. Definitely not a reason for a 10 point home dog. The line will even out at around 7, I'd expect.

Much like Mac's first year, this team will be better than anyone expected. As long as we keep Morris upright and our defense isn't bottom of the barrel, we will surprise.

Correct, 75th is not anything special, but when you compare it to what we have done, it sure looks good for them, no?

[Ryan Munthe]

Just now, forevereagle said:

Correct, 75th is not anything special, but when you compare it to what we have done, it sure looks good for them, no?

Not 10-point-favorites-coming-off-a-2-and-10-season good.

[Mean_Green09]

13 minutes ago, Ryan Munthe said:

I'm sorry, but if you're going to pull recruiting rankings, 75th is nothing to write home about. It's not like they're UH. Definitely not a reason for a 10 point home dog. The line will even out at around 7, I'd expect.

Much like Mac's first year, this team will be better than anyone expected. As long as we keep Morris upright and our defense isn't bottom of the barrel, we will surprise.

75 compared to 102 is a difference in talent. I never said they were a team with top 25 talent like Houston.If we faced Houston the line would be close to the 25-30 range.

Houston's class was ranked 35th last year with an avg player rating of 85.49. SMU 81.24 and UNT once Johnson and Hayes are removed checks in at about 77. So there is a pretty big difference in talent just acquired this year.

They beat us by 18 last year when they were bad and we were bad. Both teams are a little better this year. 

The reason for a 10 point dog is what happened last year and the thought process that while NT has improved they haven't improved enough to justify a smaller opening line. 

QB that hasnt played. Team with very questionable depth. OL is very shaky. A defense that was terrible last year. Minor talent additions. 

[forevereagle]

1 minute ago, Ryan Munthe said:

Not 10-point-favorites-coming-off-a-2-and-10-season good.

Is 10 points really that much? A TD and a FG doesn't seem like that big a gap to me. They beat us by 18 last year, so 10 seems reasonable. It's not like this assessment matters at all since, as has been pointed out, they are just setting a line so they can get even betting. This "prediction" will have no impact on anything.