Big 12 Realignment Thoughts Pertaining to UNT

[Harry]

So the AAC commish was quoted in an article I just posted as stating he KNOWS that some of his AAC schools will leave:

“I’ve been talking to the (athletic directors) and the president of the schools that might leave, and it looks like some of them will."

So, whether the AAC loses 2 or 3 (assuming BYU is one of the 4)... you do have scenarios that could play into UNT being involved.

I think most agree Houston will get in.  If that happens, you leave SMU on an island in Texas.  I just do not think SMU wants that and they wield a LOT of power in the AAC.  If they went with that it would be used against them in recruiting.

C-USA for all its faults still can boast that we have 4 schools in Texas (UNT, UTEP, UTSA and Rice). 

So assuming AAC would not leave SMU on an island, who would they take?  They have two UT system schools, one in a good market (San Antonio) and another with good basketball in the hinterlands.  Neither bring AAC level budgets.  Rice is a great academic school which would immediately replace the Houston market but is not the most attractive from a TV contract standpoint.  Rice also has a billion dollar endowment but won't spend it on sports so their budget is not AAC level either.  And then you have poor  ole UNT who is in the same market as SMU and on the other side of the tracks.

My thinking is, with the past relationships Rice has with SMU, Tulsa and Tulane, they would have to be the favorite choice as a travel partner for SMU in Texas.

[GMG24]

3 minutes ago, Harry said:

So the AAC commish was quoted in an article I just posted as stating he KNOWS that some of his AAC schools will leave:

“I’ve been talking to the (athletic directors) and the president of the schools that might leave, and it looks like some of them will."

So, whether the AAC loses 2 or 3 (assuming BYU is one of the 4)... you do have scenarios that could play into UNT being involved.

I think most agree Houston will get in.  If that happens, you leave SMU on an island in Texas.  I just do not think SMU wants that and they wield a LOT of power in the AAC.  If they went with that it would be used against them in recruiting.

C-USA for all its faults still can boast that we have 4 schools in Texas (UNT, UTEP, UTSA and Rice). 

So assuming AAC would not leave SMU on an island, who would they take?  They have two UT system schools, one in a good market (San Antonio) and another with good basketball in the hinterlands.  Neither bring AAC level budgets.  Rice is a great academic school which would immediately replace the Houston market but is not the most attractive from a TV contract standpoint.  Rice also has a billion dollar endowment but won't spend it on sports so their budget is not AAC level either.  And then you have poor  ole UNT who is in the same market as SMU and on the other side of the tracks.

My thinking is, with the past relationships Rice has with SMU, Tulsa and Tulane, they would have to be the favorite choice as a travel partner for SMU in Texas.

My thoughts, get the new AD here NOW and get him working.  Lets see if he is worth his weight in salt real quick! 

[MeanGreen13]

I think SMU will find a way into the big 12 and both they and Houston will join the conference and bring it to 12 members. the Big 12 will not pick up anyone else and they will last a few years before Texas and Oklahoma find their way into the PAC 14. that is just my opinion based on nothing at all outside what I would do as commissioner. 

[Green Mean]

No chance SMU gets into the Big 12 or any P5 unless they have a miraculous 5-10 year run that TCU began in the early 2000's.  Maybe then, another P5 conference could look at them if they want a Dallas/TX presence but I don't see that ever happening.

[meangreenbob]

I believe the Big 12 is currently the weakest of the P5 conferences. With the exception of maybe adding Houston and possibly Brigham Young any other invites will only weaken the conference and its image even more. If for instance adding any of these schools, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, UCF, South Florida or any other schools out there will only erode the quality and image even further. I really can't see Texas and OU accepting such an affiliation. So, Houston and maybe Brigham Young. Even then its not a very attractive conference for a so called P5. I see one available spot in the AAC opening up and as Harry suggested I see that being Rice.

Edited July 29, 2016 by meangreenbob

[HoustonEagle]

I really hate this thread.

[Harry]

Michael L. Aresco, Commissioner of the American Athletic Conference: "This is a spectacular hire. Having known and worked with Wren while he was at Memphis, he is an extremely experienced, personable and capable executive and will do a great job for North Texas. The college sports landscape has never been more challenging, and Wren's intelligence and vision will be enormously important to North Texas and Conference USA."

[Wag Tag]

5 hours ago, MeanGreen13 said:

I think SMU will find a way into the big 12 and both they and Houston will join the conference and bring it to 12 members. the Big 12 will not pick up anyone else and they will last a few years before Texas and Oklahoma find their way into the PAC 14. that is just my opinion based on nothing at all outside what I would do as commissioner. 

Options? Merge with Sun! If BYU and CSU go shoot for the MWC....We need to start filling up our stadium! "F" potential!

Edited July 29, 2016 by Wag Tag

[DeepGreen]

SMU will never make it to the Big 12.  Too much baggage from the "pay off gate".  UT, OU and the other big programs will never let smut in.

[VideoEagle]

16 minutes ago, DeepGreen said:

SMU will never make it to the Big 12.  Too much baggage from the "pay off gate".  UT, OU and the other big programs will never let smut in.

I wouldn't think TCU would want them in either as Big XII membership is one of TCU big advantages over SMU. And that's not just in recruiting athletes but general students as well!

[cdizzle86]

53 minutes ago, Harry said:

Michael L. Aresco, Commissioner of the American Athletic Conference: "This is a spectacular hire. Having known and worked with Wren while he was at Memphis, he is an extremely experienced, personable and capable executive and will do a great job for North Texas. The college sports landscape has never been more challenging, and Wren's intelligence and vision will be enormously important to North Texas and Conference USA."

That is a very interesting quote coming at a very interesting time.

[wardly]

Big Twelve schools most likely to be added to another P5 conference adjacent to its existing footprint should it dissolve would probably be Texas,T.T.,TCU, Baylor,Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. I don't see SMU or Houston moving up, but UFC and USF should.The AAC would be a good landing spot for "those left behind", but I don't how these changes improve UNT position.

[Mean Green Matt]

The Big 12 no longer has an incentive to expand because the NCAA gave them a waiver to have a championship game with only 10 teams. Unfortunately for Houston that means they are pretty much stuck on the outside for good with the rest of us. 

[Harry]

^^^^^^^^*

he’s right HOWEVER it is very possible that due to the Longhorn Network and the fact UT is not going to give it up, you could see a split once the TV contract comes back up... so the best case scenario is UT OU etc bail and we have a shot to join up with the leftovers ie Baylor Tech Iowa State etc.  Just my 5 cents.  @Arkstfan is the real expert.

[Mike Jackson]

On 7/29/2016 at 4:26 PM, VideoEagle said:

I wouldn't think TCU would want them in either as Big XII membership is one of TCU big advantages over SMU. And that's not just in recruiting athletes but general students as well!

Bingo some of the same reasons SMU doesn’t want to share a conference with us.  Also I think UT and OU don’t want to more conference rivals based in the DFW area.   Houston as long as they have good coaching will be a thorn it their sides whether in the Big 12 or out.  And Houston when you compare pay to pressure ratio (and opportunity for advancement) it is one the best jobs in the country.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

Why was this thread resurrected? They played Houston a year ago and had no intention of expanding. I've seen nothing about them expanding, dissolving, or losing a team since. 

[GTWT]

On ‎7‎/‎29‎/‎2016 at 4:02 PM, Wag Tag said:

Options? Merge with Sun! If BYU and CSU go shoot for the MWC....We need to start filling up our stadium! "F" potential!

That sounds like something WB would do.  We'll have Troy & Monroe as conference mates again & I fully expect to have Liberty in the mix.

[Wag Tag]

Everybody says the new ESPN contracts are going to dramatically cut! The new players in this arena will be Amazon and google, maybe Netflix so we will see. The G5 have got to fill their stadiums with regional competition. A playoff system with games played at team stadiums with a G5 National game! SWC will come back! GMG 

[GrayEagle]

Let's see...  We're spending millions to upgrade facilities and increase salaries.  We're adding coaches to get on par with AAC and MWC.    We've hired an Athletic Director who is liked and respected by others in higher conferences.  We have implied that we would like to be athletically with Tier 1 universities.  We're turning a sow's ear campus into a silk purse.  

Does that sound like we want to go back to where we came from?  For crying out loud, give a little respect to the administration that has us turning the corner to respectability.  If we don't succeed it will be because of our apathetic alumni and students but I believe that we will overcome that in time.  We are so used to being the red-headed stepchild that we have virtually no faith in anyone's ability to change our lot.  You know, WB may not succeed in his endeavor but I believe that he'll bust a gut trying.  You saw the quote from Commissioner Aresco.  Does that sound as if he is saying "don't bother".  

Seth pitched for this job because he saw the potential that North Texas offered and it appears he's on his way to proving that he was right.  Teams are improving.  I believe that recruiting will improve also which will begat even more improved teams.  I believe that he will leave for one of the best paying jobs in college coaching in due time but he may need another two or three years for the right job to open.  His/our ride may not always be smooth but progress isn't always straight ahead.  I hope that none of us get discouraged at an occasional setback.

No disrespect for any Sun Belt teams but I don't see us going back as that league now stands.  There are three or four teams that I would not mind being in a conference with but they are in Texas or an adjoining state.  But, I would want them to move up rather than our going back to the SBC.  

So cheer up and try to improve your lot.  Keep talking about North Texas in a positive manner.  Support in whatever manner you can afford.  Heads up!  There's an old saying that I believe to be true.  "If you don't think that you can you're probably right!"

[Ken14]

Hate me if you will....but I really like this conference as it is.......especially this year, close games,lots of scoring........

 

[shaft]

I thought conference realignment and uniform talk was confined to off season.

 

[Mike Jackson]

I think the elephant in the room is the LHN which is a money loser for Disney/ESPN.   The death or restructuring of the LHN is going spur conference realignment more than anything else.  If the Big 12 was smart they would drop West Virginia and go after BYU, Boise State and Colorado State.    Get OU and Texas in seperate divisions keeping the red river rivalary  at the Cotton Bowl.  

 

[NorthTexan95]

37 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

I think the elephant in the room is the LHN which is a money loser for Disney/ESPN.   The death or restructuring of the LHN is going spur conference realignment more than anything else.  If the Big 12 was smart they would drop West Virginia and go after BYU, Boise State and Colorado State.    Get OU and Texas in seperate divisions keeping the red river rivalary  at the Cotton Bowl.  

 

At this point I don't believe it's the LHN that's holding things up.  I believe it's the granting of television right until 2025.  No one can leave the B12 until this without huge penalties or concessions.  Right now it looks like things will stay "as is" until then.  That also gives the conferences plenty of time to judge the changing landscape of college football.  We have until then ... or really until about 2023 ... to make our best case.  It will be here sooner than you think. 

[Hunter Green]

14 hours ago, GrayEagle said:

Let's see...  We're spending millions to upgrade facilities and increase salaries.  We're adding coaches to get on par with AAC and MWC.    We've hired an Athletic Director who is liked and respected by others in higher conferences.  We have implied that we would like to be athletically with Tier 1 universities.  We're turning a sow's ear campus into a silk purse.  

Does that sound like we want to go back to where we came from?  For crying out loud, give a little respect to the administration that has us turning the corner to respectability.  If we don't succeed it will be because of our apathetic alumni and students but I believe that we will overcome that in time.  We are so used to being the red-headed stepchild that we have virtually no faith in anyone's ability to change our lot.  You know, WB may not succeed in his endeavor but I believe that he'll bust a gut trying.  You saw the quote from Commissioner Aresco.  Does that sound as if he is saying "don't bother".  

Seth pitched for this job because he saw the potential that North Texas offered and it appears he's on his way to proving that he was right.  Teams are improving.  I believe that recruiting will improve also which will begat even more improved teams.  I believe that he will leave for one of the best paying jobs in college coaching in due time but he may need another two or three years for the right job to open.  His/our ride may not always be smooth but progress isn't always straight ahead.  I hope that none of us get discouraged at an occasional setback.

No disrespect for any Sun Belt teams but I don't see us going back as that league now stands.  There are three or four teams that I would not mind being in a conference with but they are in Texas or an adjoining state.  But, I would want them to move up rather than our going back to the SBC.  

So cheer up and try to improve your lot.  Keep talking about North Texas in a positive manner.  Support in whatever manner you can afford.  Heads up!  There's an old saying that I believe to be true.  "If you don't think that you can you're probably right!"

This is the best post I've read in a long time. Thanks!

GO MEAN GREEN!

[Arkstfan]

I think it is unlikely you see the P5 rights fees cut.

ESPN is profitable as is. A lot of the subscriber loss isn't real. If you switch from Comcast to Sling, you are still paying a subscription fee to ESPN. Bear that in mind when you see X number of people cord cut.

ESPN has a phenomenal online infrastructure and can easily pivot to selling direct to consumer.

Want 100% of all ESPN content for a week or a month or a year? There will be a package for that.

Want 100% of all ESPN college football? There will be a package.

Just want Big XII content? There will be a package.

ESPN is going to slice dice and repackage and sell direct to consumer in the future and remember, live sports is about the only thing left that the bulk of the audience does not record and then skip commercials.