If Big 12 expansion raids AAC, Mike Aresco says his league will be OK

Harry · July 29, 2016

If I were the commissioner of the American Athletic Conference, I would be nervous right now.

I would be nervous because when the Big 12 announced last week that it was going to jump back into the expansion waters, the list of likely candidates to join included Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Connecticut, UCF, BYU and maybe Colorado State. Five of those schools are members of the 12-team AAC.

What if the Big 12 gets really frisky and takes four of those schools? Can the AAC, which has been the strongest conference outside of the Power Five, survive such a blow? That’s why I would be nervous.

If I were the commissioner of the American Athletic Conference, I would be nervous right now.

I would be nervous because when the Big 12 announced last week that it was going to jump back into the expansion waters, the list of likely candidates to join included Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Connecticut, UCF, BYU and maybe Colorado State. Five of those schools are members of the 12-team AAC.

What if the Big 12 gets really frisky and takes four of those schools? Can the AAC, which has been the strongest conference outside of the Power Five, survive such a blow? That’s why I would be nervous.

But when I talked to AAC commissioner Mike Aresco this week, he was anything but nervous. He is doing what all good leaders do. He’s working the issue with his eyes wide open, his ego in the desk drawer and with the best information possible.

“In these situations, communication is critical,” said Aresco, who was a long-time television executive before getting into college administration. “I’ve been talking to the (athletic directors) and the president of the schools that might leave, and it looks like some of them will. We’re talking to each other and trying to figure out the future. We expect everyone who leaves will leave on good terms.”

read more: http://gridironnow.com/big-12-expansion-aac-mike-aresco/

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · July 29, 2016

Hard to say what will happen. The realities are this:

(1) No matter who the Big 12 adds, it doesn't make them stronger. In fact, in short time, it will drop them below the current lowest of the P5s, the Pac-12.

(2) Texas, and probably Oklahoma, will leave the Big 12 at some point. People can talk about losing broadcasting rights to lesser sports. But, the truth is, both have enough money to buy out any time they choose. I've predicted it will be when ESPN comes to Texas and says, there's not going to be as much in the till as we thought when we made the LHN deal, let's look at something different so that it doesn't totally collapse financially.

(3) There will be a metric sh*t ton of paper wasted in lawsuits by those, like Baylor, who will be left out. Unlike when the Big East collapsed, the remaining members of the Big 12 don't have basketball to fall back on as a strength to keep the conference legitimate for TV purposed the way the Big East did. It just shed football and went back to its traditional strength. Big 12 Leftovers will have nothing.

(4) I don't really know what the American equivalent of a metric sh*t ton is, but I'll bet it's pretty big.

Edited July 29, 2016 by MeanGreenMailbox

VideoEagle · July 29, 2016

3 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

(4) I don't really know what the American equivalent of a metric sh*t ton is, but I'll bet it's pretty big.

1 metric ton = 2204.62 pounds

Office paper has a volume of 3.52 cubic yards per ton.

Edited July 29, 2016 by VideoEagle

wardly · July 29, 2016

BYU and Houston go to Big 12, Rice goes to AAC, Ark. State goes to CUSA.

UTSA Fan · July 29, 2016

Why Rice? Other revenue sports, tradition, academics, keeping a presence in the Houston market?

wardly · July 29, 2016

It's all about the Houston Market, and Rice is the last man standing.

Arkstfan · July 30, 2016

If AAC loses two and one of the two is Houston, Cincinnati, UConn or Temple ESPN can cancel the TV deal though in reality they will cut the money and the number of guaranteed appearances.

We are moving into a new era where when it comes to TV money and you aren't P5 it just isn't going to matter which of the G5 leagues you are in.

MWC talking expansion beyond 12 a few months after rejecting expansion makes me think they are looking to roll the dice to try to shake up their TV position in anticipation of being flat or losing money.

Edited July 30, 2016 by Arkstfan

wardly · July 30, 2016

Remember when the WAC went to 16 schools? It gave birth to the MWC, and the WAC died later.

VideoEagle · July 30, 2016

16 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

MWC talking expansion beyond 12 a few months after rejecting expansion makes me think they are looking to roll the dice to try to shake up their TV position in anticipation of being flat or losing money.

I missed they were seriously talking expansion. Since I'd last heard they rejected expansion, I was thinking the Mountain West core group was sticking to the "we want to play the same core group every year." If they are now talking expansion, they might be changing that.

Wag Tag · July 30, 2016

On July 29, 2016 at 10:07 AM, Harry said:

If I were the commissioner of the American Athletic Conference, I would be nervous right now.

I would be nervous because when the Big 12 announced last week that it was going to jump back into the expansion waters, the list of likely candidates to join included Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Connecticut, UCF, BYU and maybe Colorado State. Five of those schools are members of the 12-team AAC.

What if the Big 12 gets really frisky and takes four of those schools? Can the AAC, which has been the strongest conference outside of the Power Five, survive such a blow? That’s why I would be nervous.

If I were the commissioner of the American Athletic Conference, I would be nervous right now.
I would be nervous because when the Big 12 announced last week that it was going to jump back into the expansion waters, the list of likely candidates to join included Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, Connecticut, UCF, BYU and maybe Colorado State. Five of those schools are members of the 12-team AAC.

What if the Big 12 gets really frisky and takes four of those schools? Can the AAC, which has been the strongest conference outside of the Power Five, survive such a blow? That’s why I would be nervous.

But when I talked to AAC commissioner Mike Aresco this week, he was anything but nervous. He is doing what all good leaders do. He’s working the issue with his eyes wide open, his ego in the desk drawer and with the best information possible.

“In these situations, communication is critical,” said Aresco, who was a long-time television executive before getting into college administration. “I’ve been talking to the (athletic directors) and the president of the schools that might leave, and it looks like some of them will. We’re talking to each other and trying to figure out the future. We expect everyone who leaves will leave on good terms.”

read more: http://gridironnow.com/big-12-expansion-aac-mike-aresco/

With the contract they add 2 teams that will be $46m into the conf 4 teams $92m The teams you add will not get the $23m distribution. You could probably negotiate down to $7m which AAC gets now. That would be $28m and leave $68m to devide among the the existing members! Hell SMU would probably pay to be in the conference!

outoftown · July 30, 2016

21 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

If AAC loses two and one of the two is Houston, Cincinnati, UConn or Temple ESPN can cancel the TV deal though in reality they will cut the money and the number of guaranteed appearances.

We are moving into a new era where when it comes to TV money and you aren't P5 it just isn't going to matter which of the G5 leagues you are in.

MWC talking expansion beyond 12 a few months after rejecting expansion makes me think they are looking to roll the dice to try to shake up their TV position in anticipation of being flat or losing money.

Now that will be scary for the AAC. It has become clear that the tv market is not what it was, particularly for G5s. There is a solid chance ESPN would cancel the deal if they could, just so they can renegotiate really tough. That said, with the C-USA deal now being almost worse than the Belt deal, I feel the AAC may still be picking whoever they want from those two conferences. That said, as the TV money shrinks, leaving for a conference where one is a geographic outlier becomes less and less interesting.

Ben Gooding · July 30, 2016

UNT must get together with regional universities and see if they'd be willing to break away from their respective conference and create a conference people want to see. A good example...

East:

La Tech, So Miss, A-State, ULL, UAB, Memphis, MTSU

West:

UNT, Tulsa, Tulane, smug, nutsack, Texas St, Rice

It would suck to rid Marshall but they just don't make geographical sense. Until we or whoever decides to form a conference into a regional one, we G5's will just be chasing our tails.

Rudy · July 31, 2016

Baylor needs help if they don't want to get left out. Maybe they can have miss Cleo raise the ghost of Ann Richards.

VideoEagle · July 31, 2016

9 hours ago, Rudy said:

Baylor needs help if they don't want to get left out. Maybe they can have miss Cleo raise the ghost of Ann Richards.

Bob Bullock had a lot more to do with that than Ann Richards. A governor in Texas has very little actual, direct power and mostly works through appointments. Bob Bullock as Lt Governor sets the legislative agenda and can decide which committees handle what bills. Bullock threatened UT and A&M with dividing their budgets threw a bunch of different extra committees and pushing them to the end of the 180 schedule. He was doing that already for Tech where he got his bachelors and asked Baylor where he got his JD if they wanted to be included in his push.

If you want to accomplish anything with the Texas legislature, never EVER make the Lt. Governor mad. While the Governor has a veto, the Lt. Gov can make certain a bill never passes in the first place!

TreeFiddy · July 31, 2016

10 hours ago, Rudy said:

Baylor needs help if they don't want to get left out. Maybe they can have miss Cleo raise the ghost of Ann Richards.

Umm...you may have to get someone to raise Miss Cleo first.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Cleo

Ryan Munthe · July 31, 2016

I really don't want to see us in the AAC, which I don't think will be around in two years. I would like to see us in the MWC, even though travel and game time kickoffs would suck. I wasn't a big fan of the MWC, and still aren't, but CUSA is about to go full Belt on us. AAC is not going to survive another round or two of poaching. MWC is stable and overall good quality. Having Boise here wouldn't hurt either.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Ryan Munthe