Time of Possession

[StealthEagle84]

I started to dig into the offenses that Seth Littrell has headed up since becoming an offensive coordinator.  As I started to look at the numbers, which he's led some pretty impressive units, one thing really jumped off the page at me, and that is the time of possession.  Here's the breakdown of the last four seasons: 2015 @ UNC 126th in the nation w/ 25:16 per game / 2014 @ UNC 125th in the nation w/ 25:28 per game / 2013 @ Indiana 120th in the nation w/ 25:48 per game / 2012 @ Indiana 118th w/ 26:31 per game.  While his offenses have put up good numbers all around and scored plenty of points, this concerns me given the state our team on the other side of the ball.  I suppose this is less concerning if we're scoring points when we have the ball.  But if we're not doing that, or moving the chains and flipping field position, I could easily see us getting into trouble quickly.  This makes me wonder if Littrell and Harrell will try to slow things down, which I highly doubt, to attempt to manage the game better.  

[Aldo]

Efficiency.

We have been terribly inefficient on offense. That can change with a better QB (which also hinges on OL), and playcalling to suit your players.

We shall see.

[MEANGREENCOACH2]

i think they understand the importance of playing to their strengths.  Right now that would be Jeffrey Wilson

[southsideguy]

i watched the USC and UNC replay on television and the offense we say in the spring game looked pretty close to the same offense i saw on tv

[TreeFiddy]

Chico tried to run a very similar offense at the beginning of last year. Lots of folks started complaining almost immediately about time of possession. Eventually Mac joined in with the others.

I doubt TOP will get better with Littrell. What I do hope gets better is scoring more points due to a better QB that can spread it around and on target. 

It seems like we have been adding a lot of defensive players, I assume in an attempt to add depth in anticipation of the defense being on the field quite a bit. 

Chico tried it, but he did not have the players to make it work. Let's hope Littrell and company can get the players to make it work. 

[UNT Mean Green]

5 hours ago, StealthEagle84 said:

I started to dig into the offenses that Seth Littrell has headed up since becoming an offensive coordinator.  As I started to look at the numbers, which he's led some pretty impressive units, one thing really jumped off the page at me, and that is the time of possession.  Here's the breakdown of the last four seasons: 2015 @ UNC 126th in the nation w/ 25:16 per game / 2014 @ UNC 125th in the nation w/ 25:28 per game / 2013 @ Indiana 120th in the nation w/ 25:48 per game / 2012 @ Indiana 118th w/ 26:31 per game.  While his offenses have put up good numbers all around and scored plenty of points, this concerns me given the state our team on the other side of the ball.  I suppose this is less concerning if we're scoring points when we have the ball.  But if we're not doing that, or moving the chains and flipping field position, I could easily see us getting into trouble quickly.  This makes me wonder if Littrell and Harrell will try to slow things down, which I highly doubt, to attempt to manage the game better.  

Very interesting observation here. It doesn't seem that this offense is too concerned with time of possession, and that may be an inherent cause as to why the defenses of these teams tend to give up more points / yards. 

 

Bottom line, at the end of the day, just win.

[akriesman]

I mentioned this in another thread.   With our offense philosophy, we are going to need to give coach Ekeler and his guys a break when calling them out for having poor stats.

Chip Kelly is a prime example and I have seen all of the Eagles games over the last 3 years with him as coach.   If your passing the ball a lot and resorting to quick snap counts, the defense gets absolutely winded if your offense has a lot of quick 3 and outs.    Sometimes Chip's defense can barely make it to the bench before they are back out on the field.

I personally love the spread in college and think it can be more of an equalizer for G5 schools against the P5's.   But, your offense has to be clicking on all cylinders for it not to be a liability to your defense.    My concern with 2016 is that the spread offense here at NT is going to take some time to gel.   In the meantime, our defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field, which is really going to wear them out.    Its just a matter of growing pains and we are going to have a lot of them this year IMO.

I am excited about this coaching staff and the future.   But, this season could be a little hard to watch at times.    Hopefully, the fans will understand this is going to be a work in progress.    

Could we be looking at another Hal Mumme situation when he was with New Mexico St in 2004 ?

" In December 2004 Mumme was named the head coach at Division I-A New Mexico State University, replacing Tony Samuel. Samuel had run an option offense at the school and the transition to Mumme's passing offense was difficult. New Mexico State finished 0–12 in Mumme's first season (2005). "

 

Edited July 7, 2016 by akriesman

[DT 90]

Look at Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU and Houston. They all run the same offence and pretty much in the bottom of the toilet when it comes to Time of Possession .  ToP is irrelevant in this offence.    

[TreeFiddy]

There are a lot of people that allow themselves to get fooled by the TOP stat.  They try to equate TOP to whether or not you are controlling the game. There is a reason why coaches think it is the most overrated stat that is kept.

If you run a play that takes 5 seconds to run than ends in an incomplete pass and then 35 seconds tick off the play clock (but not game clock), your defense was just off the field for 40 seconds.  TOP = 5 seconds.

If you run a running play that takes 5 seconds before being tackled and then 35 seconds tick off the play clock (and the game clock since the clock did not stop), your defense was just off the field for 40 seconds.  TOP = 40 seconds.

TOP can easily fluctuate and be manipulated by running the ball and making short passes that stay in bounds and eat up clock.  However, 3 and out is 3 and out.  Look at the total number of plays get a better indicator of who is controlling the game, but even that can be misleading if a team is scoring quickly and another team is marching up and down the field and not scoring.

[MeanGreen_MBA]

If we keep scoring, or at least score on 50% of our possessions, that puts a lot of pressure on the other team to match....  True or not, it does not seem to be as tiring when playing from the lead instead of behind.  No proof, just experience....from long ago....  IF, we can score early, and hopefully often, I don't think it matters for TOP and the defense....they will be flying all over the place with endless energy....

[StealthEagle84]

I agree with basically everything that has been said above.  When I say it's concerning, one thing to consider is depth.  We simply don't have (quality) depth on the defensive side of the ball right now and I think that has to play a huge role in the overall coaching philosophy.  With all that said, I think Littrell and Harrell only know one way to play the game, and that's to #LetItFly.  They're gonna put the pedal to the metal and try to get ahead and make the opposition play catch up.  In the most refreshing way, it will be the polar opposite to what we've witnessed under the previous regime.  Yes, at times it's going to get us into trouble, but I couldn't agree more with the philosophy of the current staff.  

[NTXCoog]

Depending on the type of offense and how many big plays a team has, TOP can be the most misleading stat in college football.

A UH example:  the 2011 season, UH went 13-1.  UH was either 1st or 2nd in fastest offense (with Oregon).  Led the nation in scoring at 49.3 PPG.

In 13 of those games, UH lost the TOP battle.  Yes, every game they lost the TOP battle, they won.  The 1 game they had more TOP, they not only lost, but got blown out.

[NTAlum09]

20 hours ago, StealthEagle84 said:

I started to dig into the offenses that Seth Littrell has headed up since becoming an offensive coordinator.  As I started to look at the numbers, which he's led some pretty impressive units, one thing really jumped off the page at me, and that is the time of possession.  Here's the breakdown of the last four seasons: 2015 @ UNC 126th in the nation w/ 25:16 per game / 2014 @ UNC 125th in the nation w/ 25:28 per game / 2013 @ Indiana 120th in the nation w/ 25:48 per game / 2012 @ Indiana 118th w/ 26:31 per game.  While his offenses have put up good numbers all around and scored plenty of points, this concerns me given the state our team on the other side of the ball.  I suppose this is less concerning if we're scoring points when we have the ball.  But if we're not doing that, or moving the chains and flipping field position, I could easily see us getting into trouble quickly.  This makes me wonder if Littrell and Harrell will try to slow things down, which I highly doubt, to attempt to manage the game better.  

Why didn't you apply for the Head Coaching job?

[untjim1995]

For those of you who weren't around for the Dodge years, his offense took no time off the clock, bogged down in the red zone, and saw our defense get clobbered.  The spread offense is great if you have superior athletes at QB, WR, and RB who can make things happen in open space. But it's only as useful as the defense that has to play 40 minutes of a 60 minute game because the ToP is so out of whack. Our defense is gonna have to get more speed and more size up front for this to work. Otherwise, the spread looks more Dodge-like or Hal Mumme @ NMSU-like without defensive playmakers to get them the ball again.

[StealthEagle84]

9 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

For those of you who weren't around for the Dodge years, his offense took no time off the clock, bogged down in the red zone, and saw our defense get clobbered.  The spread offense is great if you have superior athletes at QB, WR, and RB who can make things happen in open space. But it's only as useful as the defense that has to play 40 minutes of a 60 minute game because the ToP is so out of whack. Our defense is gonna have to get more speed and more size up front for this to work. Otherwise, the spread looks more Dodge-like or Hal Mumme @ NMSU-like without defensive playmakers to get them the ball again.

Thank you.  It's one thing when you're throwing up points every time you touch the ball.  But it goes the complete opposite direction when you don't do that and your defense can't play.  I anticipate our defense being being better this year but the fact of the matter is, things are likely not to change overnight.  Also, it appears there is a pretty solid correlation between TOP and W-L  and that the Baylors, Oregons, and UNCs of the world are the exception, not the norm.  

Edited July 8, 2016 by StealthEagle84