Proof of Turn-arounds

MeanGreen_MBA · July 6, 2016

I am excited, like many of you for this season to start... Last year was.....disappointing at the least.

BUT.....there is recent proof that a turn-around can happen fairly quickly. Temple University....similar to UNT

2013 2-10

2014 6-6

2015 10-4

I would be more than happy with these same results!!!!

SilverEagle · July 6, 2016

North Texas provides a better example.

1972 (Rod Rust's last year) 1-10

1973 (Hayden Fry's first year) 5-5-1 MVC champions.

GOMG2013 · July 6, 2016

The last 3 years, 3 G5 teams have made the jump to one of the worst teams in the country, to bowl eligible. Based on this trend, 3 G5 teams will go from horrible to bowling in 2016. I see no reason why UNT can't be in the mix.

2013: UNLV 2 wins to 6...Tulane 2 wins to 7...S alabama 2 wins to 6...

2014: Temple 2 wins to 6...UTEP 2 wins to 7...W Michigan 1 win to 8...memphis 3 wins to 10

2015: Tulsa 2 to 6...UCONN 2 to 6...ga state 1 to 6

foutsrouts · July 6, 2016

2 hours ago, GOMG2013 said:

The last 3 years, 3 G5 teams have made the jump to one of the worst teams in the country, to bowl eligible. Based on this trend, 3 G5 teams will go from horrible to bowling in 2016. I see no reason why UNT can't be in the mix.

2013: UNLV 2 wins to 6...Tulane 2 wins to 7...S alabama 2 wins to 6...

2014: Temple 2 wins to 6...UTEP 2 wins to 7...W Michigan 1 win to 8...memphis 3 wins to 10

2015: Tulsa 2 to 6...UCONN 2 to 6...ga state 1 to 6, S.Miss 3 to 9

Just added So Miss.

Edited July 6, 2016 by foutsrouts

GOMG2013 · July 6, 2016

1 minute ago, foutsrouts said:

Just added So Miss.

I was going to include 3 win teams, but you know UNT fans...they would act like a 3 win team is light years better than a 1 win team. There's actually more if you include a few 3 win teams.

Army of Dad · July 6, 2016

5 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

I was going to include 3 win teams, but you know UNT fans...they would act like a 3 win team is light years better than a 1 win team. There's actually more if you include a few 3 win teams.

Probably too deep of a dive into the data, but

1: Were anyone of those teams in year one of a new coach?

2: Transitioned to completely new offensive and/or defensive schemes?

NTXCoog · July 6, 2016

20 minutes ago, Army of Dad said:

Probably too deep of a dive into the data, but

1: Were anyone of those teams in year one of a new coach?

2: Transitioned to completely new offensive and/or defensive schemes?

Tulsa 2015.

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · July 6, 2016

44 minutes ago, MeanGreen_MBA said:

I am excited, like many of you for this season to start... Last year was.....disappointing at the least.

BUT.....there is recent proof that a turn-around can happen fairly quickly. Temple University....similar to UNT

2013   2-10

2014   6-6

2015   10-4

I would be more than happy with these same results!!!!

It's a good sentiment. However, Temple's history since 2005 has been much better than ours, In fact, they've had winning seasons in five of their last seven years:

2005: 0-12, Bobby Wallace fired. Wallace had been 84-36-2 at North Alabama, winning three consecutive D II national championships. This is the kind of hire people sometimes think we should make. However, Wallace never won after making the jump at Temple, going an incredible 19-71 in eight seasons - yes, eight! He went back to the D II level once Temple cut him loose, and he's winning again.

2006: 1-11, Al Golden hired from Virginia where he had been defensive coordinator for five years
2007: 4-8, Al Golden
2008: 5-7, Al Golden
2009: 9-4, Al Golden
2010: 8-4, Al Golden, hired at this point by The U: Miami, FL
2011: 9-4, Steve Addazio, hired after The U took Golden; he had be Assistant head coach, offensive coordinatior, offensive line, and tight ends coach at Florida for six season prior.
2012: 4-7, Steve Addazio, leaves to become head coach at Boston College, a position he still holds.
2013: 2-10, Matt Rhule, hired. At the time, he had just spent on season with the New York Giants. Before he was offensive coordinator, QB coach, TE coach, and even DL coach under Al Golden at Temple and Steve Addazio's first year at Temple.

2014: 6-6, Matt Rhule
2015: 10-4, Matt Rhule

I understand what you are saying/getting at. But, the situations between us and Temple have been totally different.

Temple's rebuild was under Golden in the mid to late 00s. Their current coach, Matt Rhule, was there for the rebuilding. And, he had even recruited many of the players still on the roster when he came back after a one year stint with the Giants.

So, it's not as though the Temple program was turned totally upside down when Rhule arrived. He had helped craft the offense already being run and had recruited many players to fit it. The Temple/Rhule situation was180 degrees different than what McCarney and Littrell inherited.

We were in disarray when both McCarney and Littrell were hired. Temple had head coaches hired away by programs higher up the food chain, then turned to a coach who had helped rebuild it. That's obviously not our history since 2005. By a long shot.

letsgiveacheer · July 6, 2016

I hope we do indeed have a turn-around and the examples seen here are encouraging. However, the odds are not in our favor. In 2012, a comprehensive study showed "that if you are a bad team, changing your coach didn’t make a difference".

http://freakonomics.com/2012/12/21/is-changing-the-coach-really-the-answer/

TreeFiddy · July 6, 2016

It ain't like we play in the SEC. The majority of our opponents are predicted to be in the bottom 1/3 of FBS. It will take hitting on a few key positions (QB is an obvious one) and having a motivated team that is playing together.

While 5-6 wins may not be likely, it is certainly within reach based on our schedule. We get a few of our tougher CUSA teams at home so we should at least have a puncher's chance at them. If we get out of September with 2 wins we have a realistic shot at 5-6 wins. If not, it could be a little rough.

UNTexas · July 6, 2016

1 hour ago, SilverEagle said:

North Texas provides a better example.

1972 (Rod Rust's last year) 1-10

1973 (Hayden Fry's first year) 5-5-1 MVC champions.

Come on man, we have done better than that with a lot at stake. (Not saying 1974 was bad either.)

1993 (Parker's last year) 4-7

1994 (Simon's first year) 7-4-1 Southland Conference Championship, a trip to the D1aa playoffs, Mitch Maher became UNT's All-Time Passer (which still stands), and most importantly UNT earned the right the be D1 again.

MeanGreen_MBA · July 6, 2016

1 hour ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

It's a good sentiment. However, Temple's history since 2005 has been much better than ours, In fact, they've had winning seasons in five of their last seven years:

2005: 0-12, Bobby Wallace fired. Wallace had been 84-36-2 at North Alabama, winning three consecutive D II national championships. This is the kind of hire people sometimes think we should make. However, Wallace never won after making the jump at Temple, going an incredible 19-71 in eight seasons - yes, eight! He went back to the D II level once Temple cut him loose, and he's winning again.

2006: 1-11, Al Golden hired from Virginia where he had been defensive coordinator for five years
2007: 4-8, Al Golden
2008: 5-7, Al Golden
2009: 9-4, Al Golden
2010: 8-4, Al Golden, hired at this point by The U: Miami, FL
2011: 9-4, Steve Addazio, hired after The U took Golden; he had be Assistant head coach, offensive coordinatior, offensive line, and tight ends coach at Florida for six season prior.
2012: 4-7, Steve Addazio, leaves to become head coach at Boston College, a position he still holds.
2013: 2-10, Matt Rhule, hired. At the time, he had just spent on season with the New York Giants. Before he was offensive coordinator, QB coach, TE coach, and even DL coach under Al Golden at Temple and Steve Addazio's first year at Temple.

2014: 6-6, Matt Rhule
2015: 10-4, Matt Rhule

I understand what you are saying/getting at. But, the situations between us and Temple have been totally different.

Temple's rebuild was under Golden in the mid to late 00s. Their current coach, Matt Rhule, was there for the rebuilding. And, he had even recruited many of the players still on the roster when he came back after a one year stint with the Giants.

So, it's not as though the Temple program was turned totally upside down when Rhule arrived. He had helped craft the offense already being run and had recruited many players to fit it. The Temple/Rhule situation was180 degrees different than what McCarney and Littrell inherited.

We were in disarray when both McCarney and Littrell were hired. Temple had head coaches hired away by programs higher up the food chain, then turned to a coach who had helped rebuild it. That's obviously not our history since 2005. By a long shot.

buzz kill!!!

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · July 6, 2016

29 minutes ago, MeanGreen_MBA said:

buzz kill!!!

Not a buzz kill. I said, I understand what you are saying/getting at. It's just that Temple isn't the best example. I dream of being in a position where two of our head coaches in a row are so highly thought of that P5 programs hire them away.

We're just not there yet. Temple has been since about 2010. My guess is, if Matt Rhule does well again there this season, he'll be Temple's third consecutive head coach hired away by a bigger program.

Tyler Maryak · July 6, 2016

1 hour ago, letsgiveacheer said:

I hope we do indeed have a turn-around and the examples seen here are encouraging. However, the odds are not in our favor. In 2012, a comprehensive study showed "that if you are a bad team, changing your coach didn’t make a difference".

http://freakonomics.com/2012/12/21/is-changing-the-coach-really-the-answer/

The article linked largely just borrows excerpts from studies, so I can't know what the extended studies say without delving into them. However, the term "coach" in the article seems to have a fairly broad definition. The author compares coaches to "principle clerks" in An Inquiry into the Nature of Causes of the Wealth of Nations and argues that, like principle clerks, the similarity of training received, experience, and information available makes them interchangeable.

I would argue that the functions of a coach, if broken down, would re-frame the situation, especially for us. For one, many will state that Mac did not recruit well. If that is true (and Littrell proves himself a superior recruiter), there will be asymmetry between the human resources he had and those that Coach Litty will have. Similarly, the supports around the team (in our situation particularly) ~~will~~ could be vastly improved. Better assistant coaches, better system, better equipment...all things that (theoretically) came with the new coach but is not the coach himself.

Maybe they accounted for these factors in the studies that the author references, in which case the results may hold true. However, I think our new coach(es) brings more than just a different style of coaching and I think those are the things that set us up for a considerable turn-around where many teams are not. I don't buy the comparison of coaches to principle clerks and think that, in this case, the empirical evidence isn't relevant to our situation and therefore shouldn't stifle our optimism. I think we'll be an outlier of the data-set to at least a small degree.

greenminer · July 6, 2016

Did any of these teams have a shortage of scholarship players on the roster?

UNTexas · July 6, 2016

2 hours ago, greenminer said:

Did any of these teams have a shortage of scholarship players on the roster?

I know the 94 team did. In addition to already having limited scholarships as a D1aa. We had a QB in Mitch Maher and receivers like Troy Redwing. Plus, a lot of guys who wanted to seriously play football.

I'm not sure what this team has or is made of. We'll see in 2 months...

DallasGreen · July 9, 2016

On ‎7‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 5:56 PM, UNTexas said:

I know the 94 team did. In addition to already having limited scholarships as a D1aa. We had a QB in Mitch Maher and receivers like Troy Redwing. Plus, a lot of guys who wanted to seriously play football.

I'm not sure what this team has or is made of. We'll see in 2 months...

Redwine not Redwing

UNT90 · July 9, 2016

On July 6, 2016 at 11:37 AM, GOMG2013 said:

I was going to include 3 win teams, but you know UNT fans...they would act like a 3 win team is light years better than a 1 win team. There's actually more if you include a few 3 win teams.

Because a 3 win team is 300 percent better than a one win team.

How about you refine your search technique and find a one (ok, I'll even give you two) win team that fired a coach in the midst of a one win season and became bowl eligible in the new coach's first year.

Compare apples to apples, for pete's sake.

All this rah rah crap leads to unrealistic expectations and huge let downs. This year will be tough. Look for the young bright spots.

UNT90 · July 9, 2016

19 minutes ago, greenminer said:

You know fan is short for fanatical, so why not let them be?

Just providing the logical counterpoint.

Look, I hope we win 4 or 5 ganes this year, but we have 68 players on scholarship and are relying on a s ton of fall qualifying JUCOS to provide depth. Even Littrell said it wasn't a good situation (as judiciously as he could).

Nothing wrong with being a fan, but try and be at least moderately realistic.

letsgiveacheer · July 9, 2016

Since Hayden Fry left in 1978, we have not had a coach who left with a winning record (Jerry Moore was .500). In fact, with the exception of Moore, all of them were fired. I'm not sure why we think this regime will be any different.

But I certainly hope they are!

NTXCoog · July 9, 2016

2 hours ago, UNT90 said:

How about you refine your search technique and find a one (ok, I'll even give you two) win team that fired a coach in the midst of a one win season and became bowl eligible in the new coach's first year.

Blankenship wasn't fired mid-season, but Tulsa did go from a 2 win season to going to a bowl the next season under a new coach

UNT90 · July 9, 2016

9 minutes ago, NTXCoog said:

Blankenship wasn't fired mid-season, but Tulsa did go from a 2 win season to going to a bowl the next season under a new coach

There is one. Are there 2 unicorns?

NTXCoog · July 9, 2016

35 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

There is one. Are there 2 unicorns?

You asked for 1 and I gave you 1. In 2014, there were only 8 teams in college football that had 2 wins or less. Not all fired their coach, but 3 of those 8 went to a bowl the next year (UConn and GA St with same coach) . But thats a rather small data set. I'll let you look up how many of those other 5 teams had new coaches, but about 20%-25% of teams with 2 wins or less with new coaches the next year went to a bowl the next year

UNT90 · July 9, 2016

57 minutes ago, NTXCoog said:

You asked for 1 and I gave you 1. In 2014, there were only 8 teams in college football that had 2 wins or less. Not all fired their coach, but 3 of those 8 went to a bowl the next year (UConn and GA St with same coach) . But thats a rather small data set. I'll let you look up how many of those other 5 teams had new coaches, but about 20%-25% of teams with 2 wins or less with new coaches the next year went to a bowl the next year

Well then, hope.

We shall see.

Edited July 9, 2016 by UNT90