Summer Sunshine Sunny UNT 2016 FB Prediction

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

The bar - CUSunBelt level competition - isn't that high.

As posted before, we could win as many as six games.  Many here highly overrate SMU Jesus' progress at SMU.  With a very crappy team, we hung with them at their stadium until the fourth quarter.  They are bad, and will spend 2016 getting their heads kicking in again.  We're 50/50 here

Bethune-Cookman is a very good FCS squad, but, still FCS.  I do know that we played Portland State last year and were drummed.  However, the 2015 squad lacked pride, had essentially zero inside leadership, and quit that game.  I border on saying that they threw the game.  I hate even thinking that.  But....  The intensity should be better with the new coaching staff.  I'd put our odds at 90/10 to win this one.

Florida - Loss

Rice is breaking  in a new starting QB and some new OLs.  Defense is experienced.  Roadies.  I'd give us 30/70 odds on that one due to their experience on defense.

A QUARTER OF THE SEASON COMPLETED:  2-2 wouldn't be surprising to me, splitting the Rice and SMU games.  I'll go ahead and say that 1-3 wouldn't kill me at this point if the SMU and Rice games are competitive to the wire...which they should be.

Middle Tennessee returns only four starters on defense.  All LBs will be new, as well as 3/4th of the secondary.  They will be tough on offense, even though 2/3rds of the starting WR corp will be new.  We're at home, and I give us 50/50 here.

Marshall.  Everyone wets the bed because of Marshall.  However, Marshall lost their two leading receivers, their leading rusher, and six defensive starters - both interior linemen, the outside backers, and half of their secondary.  Again, we play this one here.  Marshall, despite the losses does bring back a good OL and what looks to be a great QB.  I'd put us at 40/60 here.

Army at West Point.  You know what you are getting with Army - option running from a smallish team.  They went 2-10 last year, defeating only Eastern Michigan and FCS Bucknell, and the Bucknell score was 21-14.  This is a test of the new defensive coaches, for sure:  how disciplined is the run defense.  Army had only one player with double digit receptions last year, 16.  Where Army is loaded is defense where they return nine starters.  I give us 60/40 odds here.

UTSA in San Antonio.  I don't think very highly of UTSA.  They are bad.  They return only five on defense, losing half their secondary and starting DL as well as 2/3rds of the LB corp.  OLs is replacing two starters and thin.  Their QB situation isn't much better than ours.  As with Army, even though on the road, I give us 60/40 odds of winning this one.

TWO-THIRDS OF THE SEASON COMPLETED:  I see us, at worse sitting a 3-5 going into the final month of the season, with a punchers chance of being 4-4.  Outside of Florida, the competition isn't overwhelming...or, shouldn't be with a properly coached and motivated squad.  Surprising either MTSU or Marshall would go a long way toward bolstering the players' belief in what the new coaching staff is doing.

Louisiana Tech at home.  Here is another, like Marshall where many people wet the bad.  However, the Bulldogs return only three starters on defense.  The right side of their OL must be replaced, as well as the starting QB, tight end, and Kenneth Dixon. Let's face facts, Dixon was, perhaps, the best player they've ever produced outside of Terry Bradshaw.  He left school with nearly every rushing record in the books.  He's gone, defense is rebuilding, and we're at home.  I give us a 50/50 here...even though you chuckle.  We should be coming home on a two game win streak going into this one.

Western Kentucky, there.  Outside of Florida, I think this is our toughest game even though the Hilltoppers are breaking in a new QB.  They do so with the luxury of what will probably be the best OL in the conference, as well as the two of the three leading receivers, who combined for 149 catches, over 2400 yards, and 23 TDs.  They also return a 1,000 rusher who contributed 27 receptions as well.  Five starters return on defense.  However, I think what they have on offense will be enough to keep us from having a shot here.  I give us 20/80 here.

Southern Miss in Denton.  Guys, this is what I think will be the key game for us.  Southern Miss will be replacing both OTs and one of their two 1,000 rushers, plus their top two WRs, who combined for 151 receptions, 2300+ yards, and 21 TDs.  They have a heck of a QB, though, who is battle tested.  They return 3/4sths of their secondary, half the LBs, but lose two DL starters from their 3-4 defense.  Also, they have a new head coach whom they hired from Alcorn State - the first white coach at the TBC - Jay Hopson.  He had been on Jeff Bowers' coaching staff back in the day.  I give us only a 40/60 here; just have a bad feeling about it at this point.

UTEP in El Paso.  UTEP returns nine on offense and six on defense.  We laugh at them, but at 5-7, they were a ball hair from being bowl eligible in 2015.  It is likely that this game determines bowl eligibility for us or them.  I really like their coach,Sean Kugler.  He's got some question marks at QB,and loses 3/5ths of the secondary in the 4-2-5 TCU-like scheme they run.  However, I don't see them as a push over.  I see us as a 40/60 here.

SEASON COMPLETE:  We should be at least 5-7.  Laugh now.  It will only take one "upset" to get us bowl eligible.  But, look...I'm not crazy either.  To get to 5-7, this squad must bring the A game every game, every week.  They must.  There are a sh*t ton of questions about this the talent on this roster, especially breaking in a new OL and QB.  DL is still perilously think and small. 

The 2016 thing is simply this, as it always seems to be for us:  this group has to commit to one another to play above themselves.  There can't be non-starting players shirking workouts, disregarding the playbooks, avoiding the film room, then yelling at coaches about not starting.  That type of sh*t has got be 139% absent from the 2016 locker room...especially at the Leader position, QB.  If the locker room lacks leadership again in 2016 and is in disarray, disregard everything I've predicted and mark us down at 1-11 or 0-12.

The players have new coaching leadership.  It's time for the experienced players on this team to put up or shut up, and start setting an example for the underclassmen.

They need this on their t-shirts this year:

[southsideguy]

3 wins i say

 

[foutsrouts]

I agree with most of the above. I think the whole season hinges on our getting off to a good start (2-1 going to Rice), and if we could somehow pull off that game, i could see us building momentum and having a pretty decent season. Of course I have always been partial to green Koolaid.

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

2 minutes ago, southsideguy said:

3 wins i say

 

I can see three at well.  Nothing between three and six would surprise me.  I'll be as disappointed at less than three, though, as I would be surprised at more than six.  This version of the C-USA just isn't that tough. 

If we can't plug out at least two C-USA wins, we're in a deeper hole than any coach can dig us out of.  I also think the program is cooked if we tank 2016,  It just is.  We are already far behind in recruiting talent, and we do not exist in a bubble.  Everyone is recruiting, not just us.  We simply can't afford a season with less than three wins. 

As much as I like Coach Littrell, he doesn't have the personality to outsell a zero, one, or two wins season with our history being what it is.  He's starting off behind the eight ball.  And, although that's not his fault, it is what he signed up for!  Nobody goes into this thing blind.

[southsideguy]

i hope they prove me wrong and win a bunch more games, we are not in a super conference so anything can happen.  The bowl year everything went right for us on the field but last year what could go wrong went wrong.  So hopefully will have some luck this year. 

Edited June 3, 2016 by southsideguy

[foutsrouts]

Just now, southsideguy said:

i hope they prove me wrong and win a bunch more games, we are not in a super conference so anything can happen.  The bowl year everything went right for us on the field but last year what could go wrong went wrong.  So hopefully will have some luck this year.

Hopefully our special teams turn out special and help us pull off a close game or two.

[Harry]

22 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Army at West Point.  You know what you are getting with Army - option running from a smallish team.  They went 2-10 last year, defeating only Eastern Michigan and FCS Bucknell, and the Bucknell score was 21-14.  This is a test of the new defensive coaches, for sure:  how disciplined is the run defense.  Army had only one player with double digit receptions last year, 16.  Where Army is loaded is defense where they return nine starters.  I give us 60/40 odds here.

I agree with a lot of what you say, with the exception of this one.  Army is big, physical and will pound us.  I think 60/40 is overly optimistic.  Maybe 40/60.  We will really need some big plays to keep this one close. 

[MeanGreen13]

7 minutes ago, Harry said:

I agree with a lot of what you say, with the exception of this one.  Army is big, physical and will pound us.  I think 60/40 is overly optimistic.  Maybe 40/60.  We will really need some big plays to keep this one close. 

Army is physical, yes, but big, NO! They have 2 kids that are 300 pounds or more, and their biggest DL player is a whopping 272. I think we can match their physicality, just maybe not their scheme.

[Ben Gooding]

14 minutes ago, Harry said:

I agree with a lot of what you say, with the exception of this one.  Army is big, physical and will pound us.  I think 60/40 is overly optimistic.  Maybe 40/60.  We will really need some big plays to keep this one close. 

They are not big, Harry. They may be physical, but only because of the type of player they are pretty much forced to recruit as well as the style of play they play. Army is not a good team and has not been a good team for some time now. 

 

I agree with the prognosticator. I think 3-9 is a possibility. But I also think 6-6 is a possibility. We will have new personnel in a new, better suited scheme. I will start to genuinely get surprised if we get to 7 or 8 wins.  

Edited June 3, 2016 by Ben Gooding

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, MeanGreen13 said:

Army is physical, yes, but big, NO! They have 2 kids that are 300 pounds or more, and their biggest DL player is a whopping 272. I think we can match their physicality, just maybe not their scheme.

I was not going over their roster but just from my memory on us playing them from before.  You are probably right, it is more the system they employ and it just seems like they beat you to death with their running game.  We had some very disappointing losses against them in the Dodge years as I recall.  They did struggle the last few years so it may be a more winnable game than when we played them before.

[southsideguy]

24 minutes ago, foutsrouts said:

Hopefully our special teams turn out special and help us pull off a close game or two.

i hope we can find another Brelan.  Every time he touched the ball you knew something special could happen.  

[Aldo]

Some of these games can go either way, depending on how the football fumbles.

[MeanGreenHoops]

Interesting post. One point on Army. They return a lot of players, and if you look at their results, they lost most games by single digits. Losses by 2, 5, 3, 6, 41, 7, 17, 3, 10, 4. They only were blown out in one by Duke. They lost by 7 at Rice. They got much better as the year went on. That game will be one of the toughest on the road this year.

[Ben Gooding]

14 minutes ago, MeanGreenHoops said:

Interesting post. One point on Army. They return a lot of players, and if you look at their results, they lost most games by single digits. Losses by 2, 5, 3, 6, 41, 7, 17, 3, 10, 4. They only were blown out in one by Duke. They lost by 7 at Rice. They got much better as the year went on. That game will be one of the toughest on the road this year.

Very true, but they weren't playing a bunch of World beaters or anything. 

Their 2015 schedule consisted of Fordham (which they lost to), UCONN, Wake Forest, E. Michigan, Penn State (good loss if there ever was one - 20-14), Bucknell (won 21-14), Rice, Air Force, Tulane, Rutgers, and Navy. 

Credit to Army and its fans, they typically hold steady in attendance regardless of opponent or results. 

[MeanGreen22]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Florida - Loss

This is my favorite breakdown.  Straight to the point.

[MeanGreenHoops]

Also, not trying to blow holes in your sunshine as it's fun to read and hope, but a lot of the reasons why you say we should hang with these teams are down to they lost this many people on offense and 1/2 their offense yada yada.

But the same could be said for us. We basically lost 4-5 on the O-Line with the 1 changing positions. Starting QB, best WR plus Kidsey, We lost 3 (ish) starters on defense.

Of course we know a lot about those guys and figure our losses aren't that big of deal but I'm sure the LA. Tech guys would say well they've got better players to fill in the holes than we do, and a reasonable person would probably agree.

Again, not trying to be negative, because I think you're prediction is less crazy than it might seam, but as I pointed out with Army, just the record and who they lost points you make isn't enough to convince me.

[MeanGreenTexan]

2 minutes ago, MeanGreenHoops said:

Also, not trying to blow holes in your sunshine as it's fun to read and hope, but a lot of the reasons why you say we should hang with these teams are down to they lost this many people on offense and 1/2 their offense yada yada.

But the same could be said for us. We basically lost 4-5 on the O-Line with the 1 changing positions. Starting QB, best WR plus Kidsey, We lost 3 (ish) starters on defense.

Of course we know a lot about those guys and figure our losses aren't that big of deal but I'm sure the LA. Tech guys would say well they've got better players to fill in the holes than we do, and a reasonable person would probably agree.

Again, not trying to be negative, because I think you're prediction is less crazy than it might seam, but as I pointed out with Army, just the record and who they lost points you make isn't enough to convince me.

My only hope for optimism is that we're replacing a cattywampus offense with a proven system.   The results should be there offensively.

We're also bringing in a new DC in Ekeler, although his defenses were beat like a drum while at Indiana... including by our old cattywampus offense... but he can't be any worse than Cosh.

[Ben Gooding]

Just now, MeanGreenTexan said:

My only hope for optimism is that we're replacing a cattywampus offense with a proven system.   The results should be there offensively.

We're also bringing in a new DC in Ekeler, although his defenses were beat like a drum while at Indiana... including by our old cattywampus offense... but he can't be any worse than Cosh.

I also think the defensive philosophy will help in containing CUSA offenses and what they try to do. 3-3 stack or 4-2-5 is much more preferred in this league than a 4-3 soft base. Also, there will be 5+ new faces on D getting meaningful reps that are big, physical guys.  

Of course the offense will be 180. We are literally going to be doing the exact opposite of what we have been doing. 

[baberuthbomber8]

28 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Very true, but they weren't playing a bunch of World beaters or anything. 

Their 2015 schedule consisted of Fordham (which they lost to), UCONN, Wake Forest, E. Michigan, Penn State (good loss if there ever was one - 20-14), Bucknell (won 21-14), Rice, Air Force, Tulane, Rutgers, and Navy. 

Credit to Army and its fans, they typically hold steady in attendance regardless of opponent or results. 

They hold steady in attendance because the Cadets attend the games, since it is one of the few times during the year they get to wear non-military dress clothing along with it being a requirement, I believe for them as well. I know this because I went up to West Point 2 years ago for the Army, to talk to the cadets. Also, where West Point is, they get a lot of the people in the community to come to games as well. 

The defense I think should be better, and the offense should get better with Morris being able to throw the ball instead of teams packing the box non-stop with our QB's that barely could complete a pass..

[foutsrouts]

34 minutes ago, MeanGreenHoops said:

Also, not trying to blow holes in your sunshine as it's fun to read and hope, but a lot of the reasons why you say we should hang with these teams are down to they lost this many people on offense and 1/2 their offense yada yada.

But the same could be said for us. We basically lost 4-5 on the O-Line with the 1 changing positions. Starting QB, best WR plus Kidsey, We lost 3 (ish) starters on defense.

Of course we know a lot about those guys and figure our losses aren't that big of deal but I'm sure the LA. Tech guys would say well they've got better players to fill in the holes than we do, and a reasonable person would probably agree.

Again, not trying to be negative, because I think you're prediction is less crazy than it might seam, but as I pointed out with Army, just the record and who they lost points you make isn't enough to convince me.

Speaking of the OL, has anyone heard anything about Kirby maybe getting back on the horse? He originally said he was taking a leave of absence, and if he returned ready to go in 2 months, I would feel much better about the core of our OL. I certainly sympathize with him, but his return could possibly move our major OL concerns to the tackle positions.

[Harry]

1 minute ago, foutsrouts said:

Speaking of the OL, has anyone heard anything about Kirby maybe getting back on the horse? He originally said he was taking a leave of absence, and if he returned ready to go in 2 months, I would feel much better about the core of our OL. I certainly sympathize with him, but his return could possibly move our major OL concerns to the tackle positions.

Would love to see it happen but given the fact they took our best lineman (Rice) to replace him it looks doubtful.

[Greenrex]

MeanGreenMailbox is the new BillySee58.

[GrandGreen]

NT should be substantially better than last year.  How, that translates to wins and loses is impossible to predict.  The schedule is not that tough and I think NT will do much better than the awful prognostications by most of the medium.  

NT's talent level was lacking last year, but it was not as bad as the record.  Emotions play an enormous part in college football, last years team was at an emotional zero.  A new regime and some early success could make this team much better than expected.  

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenHoops said:

Also, not trying to blow holes in your sunshine as it's fun to read and hope, but a lot of the reasons why you say we should hang with these teams are down to they lost this many people on offense and 1/2 their offense yada yada.

But the same could be said for us. We basically lost 4-5 on the O-Line with the 1 changing positions. Starting QB, best WR plus Kidsey, We lost 3 (ish) starters on defense.

Of course we know a lot about those guys and figure our losses aren't that big of deal but I'm sure the LA. Tech guys would say well they've got better players to fill in the holes than we do, and a reasonable person would probably agree.

Again, not trying to be negative, because I think you're prediction is less crazy than it might seam, but as I pointed out with Army, just the record and who they lost points you make isn't enough to convince me.

I totally agree.  But, we're not the only ones with losses.  And, I guess my overarching point is, we're not in a conference where teams who lose a bunch of players just reload. 

When you start looking at the returning starters for each schools, we really aren't in as bad a shape as some.  I think our two main advantages are possibly having a P5 talent at QB, and having a fresh start with a new coaching staff.

As far as admitting that we have a talent gap, I would say moreso than that, the 2015 team just plain quit.  Unless something goes very wrong - and, it can - I don't see players quitting on a brand new coach.  Even in 2011, the players pushed to 5 wins under McCarney after years of one, two, and three win seasons. 

Littrell & Co, in theory, having more energy and relating better to the players because they are younger (again, just a theory at this point that people seem to buy/hope), I expect the players will respond. 

The X factor to me is the health of Morris.  Unlike others, I really don't think we have another legitimate FBS-talent QB, even G5 FBS, on the roster. Sorry, Shanbour folks. 

If Shanbour really had it, I think he'd have shown it by now.  At some point, you are what you are.  He hasn't been that Baker Mayfield-type of "hey, can't believe they overlooked this guy!"  That's needle-in-the-haystack proposition at best anyway. 

 

[Wag Tag]

7 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

I totally agree.  But, we're not the only ones with losses.  And, I guess my overarching point is, we're not in a conference where teams who lose a bunch of players just reload. 

When you start looking at the returning starters for each schools, we really aren't in as bad a shape as some.  I think our two main advantages are possibly having a P5 talent at QB, and having a fresh start with a new coaching staff.

As far as admitting that we have a talent gap, I would say moreso than that, the 2015 team just plain quit.  Unless something goes very wrong - and, it can - I don't see players quitting on a brand new coach.  Even in 2011, the players pushed to 5 wins under McCarney after years of one, two, and three win seasons. 

Littrell & Co, in theory, having more energy and relating better to the players because they are younger (again, just a theory at this point that people seem to buy/hope), I expect the players will respond. 

The X factor to me is the health of Morris.  Unlike others, I really don't think we have another legitimate FBS-talent QB, even G5 FBS, on the roster. Sorry, Shanbour folks. 

If Shanbour really had it, I think he'd have shown it by now.  At some point, you are what you are.  He hasn't been that Baker Mayfield-type of "hey, can't believe they overlooked this guy!"  That's needle-in-the-haystack proposition at best anyway. 

 

Agree with a lot of your points. Is there any position group on the field that will not be better than last year? Maybe OL because of the new alignment ? Just give me above average C-USA QB play and I could easily see 5 wins, but also just as important to me is be COMPETITIVE in every game! GMG