Could local schools like Tech, Baylor and TCU be casualties of college football's next big realignment?

Harry · May 18, 2016

There has been a lot of talk about Big 12 expansion of late, with many debating which would be the best candidates to join the conference to keep it from falling too far behind the other Power Five conferences.

But what if talk of expansion misses the point? What if the next big move in college football realignment is actually consolidation?

That's the question that Fox Sports analyst Stewart Mandel posed in a recent column.

"The playoff will inevitably expand to at least eight teams, if not more, when the current deal ends, and it will separate completely from the bowl system. Early-round games will be played on campus, just like in the NFL. In turn, our national focus will narrow almost entirely to teams perceived as playoff contenders, which, if we're being honest, comprise fewer than half of the 65 Power 5 schools, and certainly none of the other 63 FBS schools," Mandel wrote. "Sorry, but Wake Forest is no threat to pull a Leicester City anytime soon. Which brings us to consolidation."

This would leave local Big 12 schools Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU out in the cold. Baylor and TCU as small, private schools simply do not have the size of fan base to make themselves attractive to this theoretical conference while Tech's on-field success has been well below the expectations.

read more: http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2016/05/16/national-writer-local-schools-like-tech-baylor-tcu-casualties-college-footballs-next-big-realignment

Cerebus · May 18, 2016

I have been saying this for a while. The P5 will shrink.

Wag Tag · May 18, 2016

20 minutes ago, Harry said:

There has been a lot of talk about Big 12 expansion of late, with many debating which would be the best candidates to join the conference to keep it from falling too far behind the other Power Five conferences.

But what if talk of expansion misses the point? What if the next big move in college football realignment is actually consolidation?

That's the question that Fox Sports analyst Stewart Mandel posed in a recent column.

"The playoff will inevitably expand to at least eight teams, if not more, when the current deal ends, and it will separate completely from the bowl system. Early-round games will be played on campus, just like in the NFL. In turn, our national focus will narrow almost entirely to teams perceived as playoff contenders, which, if we're being honest, comprise fewer than half of the 65 Power 5 schools, and certainly none of the other 63 FBS schools," Mandel wrote. "Sorry, but Wake Forest is no threat to pull a Leicester City anytime soon. Which brings us to consolidation."

This would leave local Big 12 schools Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU out in the cold. Baylor and TCU as small, private schools simply do not have the size of fan base to make themselves attractive to this theoretical conference while Tech's on-field success has been well below the expectations.

read more: http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2016/05/16/national-writer-local-schools-like-tech-baylor-tcu-casualties-college-footballs-next-big-realignment

As mentioned before. You try to expand and UT and OU will be gone. Bay, tt, TCU need to pray this doesn't happen. Another point he brings up is bowl games disappearing for a playoff system which could lead to huge bucks. This is where C-USA, MAC,MWC need to be pro- active and stop any bowl games that don't create positive cash and start a playoff system. Having sold out stadiums is going to be the cash cow for these conf.

Ben Gooding · May 18, 2016

I'd say be proactive with regional schools, including ones currently in the big12. Get in front before you get left way behind. Have a 16 team regional conference. Try and persuade Tech, Baylor, Tulsa, TCU, nutsack, Rice, SMU, OkSt, NMSU, Iowa St, La Tech, utep, Texas St, Colorado St, Memphis and UNT to come together. That could create a profitable and competitive conference that leans heavily on being regional and makes for a lot of natural rivalries. To me, it makes great sense.

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · May 18, 2016

Everyone knows the Big 12 is dying. Would love to be a fly on the wall at the BOR meetings for Texas and Oklahoma to know which conferences are currently wooing them.

Although SEC makes the most geographic sense, my bet is Texas to the Pac-12 or ACC. OU to either the SEC or Big Ten. KU to ACC or Big Ten.

Everyone else in the Big 12 is left sucking hind tit.

Prediction:
Biggest meltdown comes from Baylor fans, first, then Oklahoma State fans.

untcampbell · May 18, 2016

The lawsuits this will generate will be delicious. Fun times approaching.

GMG

GangGreen · May 18, 2016

If this is what it turns into, I won't watch a single game. It's already bad enough as it is.

foutsrouts · May 18, 2016

54 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Everyone knows the Big 12 is dying. Would love to be a fly on the wall at the BOR meetings for Texas and Oklahoma to know which conferences are currently wooing them.

Although SEC makes the most geographic sense, my bet is Texas to the Pac-12 or ACC. OU to either the SEC or Big Ten. KU to ACC or Big Ten.

Everyone else in the Big 12 is left sucking hind tit.

Prediction:
Biggest meltdown comes from Baylor fans, first, then Oklahoma State fans.

Texas likely goes west for the academics and more beatable teams, while the rest of the destinations are a mystery to me. Hopefully the implosion waits until we can somehow start winning consistently in multiple sports.

Wag Tag · May 18, 2016

2 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Everyone knows the Big 12 is dying. Would love to be a fly on the wall at the BOR meetings for Texas and Oklahoma to know which conferences are currently wooing them.

Although SEC makes the most geographic sense, my bet is Texas to the Pac-12 or ACC. OU to either the SEC or Big Ten. KU to ACC or Big Ten.

Everyone else in the Big 12 is left sucking hind tit.

Prediction:
Biggest meltdown comes from Baylor fans, first, then Oklahoma State fans.

OSU will try to piggyback with OU and the politicians will make sure this happens. Okie politics!

untjim1995 · May 18, 2016

2 hours ago, untcampbell said:

The lawsuits this will generate will be delicious. Fun times approaching.

GMG

This is exactly why this scenario will never happen as long as the school's belong to the NCAA. Lawsuits from lower G5 and FCS schools will go nowhere--they have zero pull within legislatures and in the media. Networks won't pay anything of major note for lower G5 games, but they will for leagues higher up the food chain. Legislatures are full of grads from schools outside of those 24 listed in Mandel's article, as well as fan bases that are very loud and vocal. That's where your real legislative threat would come from--and the Top 24 schools listed aren't stupid. They need that next 40-60 schools to play with and beat regularly--they will never fall into a setup like Mandel gives in the article.

Schools like Baylor, TCU, Wake Forest, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, etc.. are in the situations they are in because they are either small or provide no TV market to go along with athletic or academic success. That's why they will end up in the MWC or AAC when it's all said and done, still able to play the Power Conferences, but left out of the playoff.

Ben Gooding · May 18, 2016

22 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

OSU will try to piggyback with OU and the politicians will make sure this happens. Okie politics!

Meh. They will have minimal say in it. It's going to be a conference affiliation that has no ties to the big12 or to the state of Oklahoma. They will get into a new conference because that new conferences wants them in it OR OU demands them to be in it. Otherwise, they are stuck in nowhere land. My above scenario a few posts ago would be ideal for everyone and could in time become a conference to deal with it on a national level.

Wag Tag · May 18, 2016

11 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Meh. They will have minimal say in it. It's going to be a conference affiliation that has no ties to the big12 or to the state of Oklahoma. They will get into a new conference because that new conferences wants them in it OR OU demands them to be in it. Otherwise, they are stuck in nowhere land. My above scenario a few posts ago would be ideal for everyone and could in time become a conference to deal with it on a national level.

1/2 the politicians are OU and the other OSU they control a lot of purse strings. You could be right I never thought A&M and UT would ever separate. A&M got the SEC and UT got the longbore network.

FirefightnRick · May 19, 2016

In turn, our national focus will narrow almost entirely to teams perceived as playoff contenders, which, if we're being honest, comprise fewer than half of the 65 Power 5 schools

Uh...kind of like the annual preseason AP/Coaches/CNN/ESPN Top 25 Polls maybe?

Rick

Ben Gooding · May 19, 2016

20 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Uh...kind of like the annual preseason AP/Coaches/CNN/ESPN Top 25 Polls maybe?

Rick

That quote is so much garbage.

Aquila_Viridis · May 19, 2016

It doesn't matter to us anyway. We won't be moving up to the level of those schools this century no matter where they are. Realistically the best I can hope for is that we are always playing other schools that are comparable in fundamental ways and have a similar low level of commitment. Maybe after a while we can help build a conference that UCF and USF and maybe some others would WANT to join. It does not make sense for them to be playing East Carolina for example. Besides there really is no such place. I don't know what goals to expect anymore. Our administration clearly is not on board with finding how to come up with the kind of money that TT, etc. can come up with. Plus it is so much money now I don't think I can say spending it would make sense. But then let's find a rational set of opponents at this rational level of spending. I think that means schools in metro over 1 million people. There is not reason to be playing LT, USM or privates like Rice. Yes those are the better historical programs in our current conference but what's the point? That it MEANS something? No really it doesn't. I am more excited about beating San Antonio for example.

MeanGreen_MBA · May 19, 2016

14 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

I'd say be proactive with regional schools, including ones currently in the big12. Get in front before you get left way behind. Have a 16 team regional conference. Try and persuade Tech, Baylor, Tulsa, TCU, nutsack, Rice, SMU, OkSt, NMSU, Iowa St, La Tech, utep, Texas St, Colorado St, Memphis and UNT to come together. That could create a profitable and competitive conference that leans heavily on being regional and makes for a lot of natural rivalries. To me, it makes great sense.

The New Southwest Conference....I'm in!!!!

untjim1995 · May 19, 2016

9 hours ago, Aquila_Viridis said:

It doesn't matter to us anyway. We won't be moving up to the level of those schools this century no matter where they are. Realistically the best I can hope for is that we are always playing other schools that are comparable in fundamental ways and have a similar low level of commitment. Maybe after a while we can help build a conference that UCF and USF and maybe some others would WANT to join. It does not make sense for them to be playing East Carolina for example. Besides there really is no such place. I don't know what goals to expect anymore. Our administration clearly is not on board with finding how to come up with the kind of money that TT, etc. can come up with. Plus it is so much money now I don't think I can say spending it would make sense. But then let's find a rational set of opponents at this rational level of spending. I think that means schools in metro over 1 million people. There is not reason to be playing LT, USM or privates like Rice. Yes those are the better historical programs in our current conference but what's the point? That it MEANS something? No really it doesn't. I am more excited about beating San Antonio for example.

I think the biggest unknown in all of this is what kind of fan support will we get when the next relegation occurs. Before, in the 80s, we played a bunch of no-name, podunk schools in a conference, while the SWC and Big Eight were at the top of the college football world. Today, and looking forward, the lower G5s in the SBC, MAC, and CUSA, as well the Top FCS schools will get realigned into the new 1-aa. Will UNT's attendance still be around 13k in football then or will it drop even further? The AAC and MWC will stay above us, but they will add the leftovers from the Big XII to get more Texas exposure, so it very well could mean that even schools like Rice and UTEP won't be going anywhere higher anytime, as well. If we play at the new I-aa level, with a conference made up of UNT, UTEP, UTSA, Texas State, Rice, La Tech, Arky State, ULL, ULM, SHSU, SFA, and McNeese State, would you continue to follow the team? Would you still attend games? Would you still buy season tickets and remain in the MGC? Those are the questions that nobody knows the answers to right now, especially if Baylor, Tech, UH, SMU and TCU are still playing in leagues that are a cut above ours, which isn't even counting Texas, A&M, and OU being in the power conferences that get almost all of the media's attention already.

Ben Gooding · May 19, 2016

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

I think the biggest unknown in all of this is what kind of fan support will we get when the next relegation occurs. Before, in the 80s, we played a bunch of no-name, podunk schools in a conference, while the SWC and Big Eight were at the top of the college football world. Today, and looking forward, the lower G5s in the SBC, MAC, and CUSA, as well the Top FCS schools will get realigned into the new 1-aa. Will UNT's attendance still be around 13k in football then or will it drop even further? The AAC and MWC will stay above us, but they will add the leftovers from the Big XII to get more Texas exposure, so it very well could mean that even schools like Rice and UTEP won't be going anywhere higher anytime, as well. If we play at the new I-aa level, with a conference made up of UNT, UTEP, UTSA, Texas State, Rice, La Tech, Arky State, ULL, ULM, SHSU, SFA, and McNeese State, would you continue to follow the team? Would you still attend games? Would you still buy season tickets and remain in the MGC? Those are the questions that nobody knows the answers to right now, especially if Baylor, Tech, UH, SMU and TCU are still playing in leagues that are a cut above ours, which isn't even counting Texas, A&M, and OU being in the power conferences that get almost all of the media's attention already.

WHY ARE YOU SO ADAMANT ON YOUR 2 BS OPINIONS OF 1) UNT IS ART & MUSIC ONLY SCHOOL AND 2) AAC AND MWC WILL BE THEIR OWN LITTLE ENTITY. STOOOOOOPPPPPP!!!!! YOU SOUND LIKE 90 GOING ON ABOUT RV.

Since this is the football forum, MCW has Bosie and that's a bout a wrap. SDSU is sometimes pretty good and Colorado St makes some headway every so often. The league is typically dominated by 1 team and that does not mean it is a strong conference, it just means no one can raise their bar to Boise's. The MWC is not that great of a football conference. Be realistic.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Ben Gooding

MeanGreenTexan · May 19, 2016

27 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

WHY ARE YOU SO ADAMANT ON YOUR 2 BS OPINIONS OF 1) UNT IS ART & MUSIC ONLY SCHOOL AND 2) AAC AND MWC WILL BE THEIR OWN LITTLE ENTITY. STOOOOOOPPPPPP!!!!! YOU SOUND LIKE 90 GOING ON ABOUT RV.

Since this is the football forum, MCW has Bosie and that's a bout a wrap. SDSU is sometimes pretty good and Colorado St makes some headway every so often. The league is typically dominated by 1 team and that does not mean it is a strong conference, it just means no one can raise their bar to Boise's. The MWC is not that great of a football conference. Be realistic.

As opposed to the SEC? Yeah, you're right.
As opposed to C-USA? It's clearly superior.

Ben Gooding · May 19, 2016

19 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

As opposed to the SEC? Yeah, you're right.
As opposed to C-USA? It's clearly superior.

Clearly is an overstatement.

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · May 19, 2016

One thing is certain in all of this: we will someday share a conference with Abilene Christian. Mark my words. It will be the ultimate thrill for them, and the ultimate defeat for us.

MeanGreenTexan · May 19, 2016

13 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Clearly is an overstatement.

untjim1995 · May 19, 2016

1 hour ago, Ben Gooding said:

WHY ARE YOU SO ADAMANT ON YOUR 2 BS OPINIONS OF 1) UNT IS ART & MUSIC ONLY SCHOOL AND 2) AAC AND MWC WILL BE THEIR OWN LITTLE ENTITY. STOOOOOOPPPPPP!!!!! YOU SOUND LIKE 90 GOING ON ABOUT RV.

Since this is the football forum, MCW has Bosie and that's a bout a wrap. SDSU is sometimes pretty good and Colorado St makes some headway every so often. The league is typically dominated by 1 team and that does not mean it is a strong conference, it just means no one can raise their bar to Boise's. The MWC is not that great of a football conference. Be realistic.

okay?

Ben Gooding · May 19, 2016

15 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

One thing is certain in all of this: we will someday share a conference with Abilene Christian. Mark my words. It will be the ultimate thrill for them, and the ultimate defeat for us.

:unamused:

And this being even a remote possibility is even more fuel to the fire RV fire. It's his job to put this athletic department in a better position. And in 15 years, I cannot say he has done that.

MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF · May 19, 2016

<sigh>

I'd insert Billy Joel's "We Didn't Start The Fire" video in honor of RV, if I thought it would help, but...lord have mercy. I f*cking sat in dilapidated Fouts Field as a UNT student from 1990-1995 watching us play the likes of Southwest Missouri State year in and year out, and I'm supposed to now sit in Apogee and pretend nothing has changed in 15 years.