Updated Football Power Index (Pre-Season Rankings)

Ben Gooding · May 8, 2016

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/fpi?ex_cid=espntw

128 (Last) - North Texas

Chances of going 12-0 - 0%

Chances of winning conference - 0%

SOS Rank - 112

Projected W/L - 2.6 - 9.4

YAY!! Go Mean Green!!!

Ben Gooding · May 8, 2016

51 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/fpi?ex_cid=espntw

128 (Last) - North Texas

Chances of going 12-0 - 0%

Chances of winning conference - 0%

SOS Rank - 112

Projected W/L - 2.6 - 9.4

YAY!! Go Mean Green!!!

Ahh, yes, a -1 for stating facts. I guess the truth does hurt.

MeanGreen13 · May 8, 2016

BOLD PREDICTION: We end up in the top 100 at season's end. No one over react to this, just wait until December and then be liberal with the virtual high fives.

Mean Green 93-98 · May 8, 2016

I'm not sure how they predict us to win 2.6 games if they have us as the #128 team. The worst team is typically lucky to win 1.

UNT90 · May 8, 2016

2 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

I'm not sure how they predict us to win 2.6 games if they have us as the #128 team. The worst team is typically lucky to win 1.

I think they feel strength of schedule matters.

Thats 2.6 wins against the 112 ranked schedule...

Kinda depressing.

Finding wins on this schedule isn't easy. And that includes Butt Cookman.

Edited May 8, 2016 by UNT90

NTXCoog · May 9, 2016

7 hours ago, UNT90 said:

I think they feel strength of schedule matters.

Thats 2.6 wins against the 112 ranked schedule...

Kinda depressing.

Finding wins on this schedule isn't easy. And that includes Butt Cookman.

Nope... that 2.6 wins is the worst projected record. Someone will have less wins than that.

And i dont buy houston as #40 either. But then again they had houston #34 at the end of 2015 after easily beating their #13 three loss FSU. Garbage calculations

oldguystudent · May 9, 2016

Army of Dad · May 9, 2016

8 hours ago, NTXCoog said:

Nope... that 2.6 wins is the worst projected record. Someone will have less wins than that.

And i dont buy houston as #40 either. But then again they had houston #34 at the end of 2015 after easily beating their #13 three loss FSU. Garbage calculations

34 beating 13 on a neutral field doesn't necessarily show the ranking system to be garbage.

NTXCoog · May 9, 2016

1 hour ago, Army of Dad said:

34 beating 13 on a neutral field doesn't necessarily show the ranking system to be garbage.

True, but you factor in UH finished #8 in the AP and coaches poll, 13-1 record, and beat 4 teams that were ranked during the season including 2 teams ranked at the end of the season, I'd say that #34 looks like a major outlier and indicates a problem in their formula.

Edited May 9, 2016 by NTXCoog
typo

untjim1995 · May 9, 2016

This is dead-on...we were the worst team in America last year. We won a game because of the football gods allowing us to play an awful team at home and have them go down to their 5th string QB for us to squeeze out a win by a TD. We don't get the luxury of playing a bad team at home this season, like we did last year with UTSA.

The reality here is that Butt Cookman represents our only chance to be a favorite this season. And it should be the only game we should be disappointed in greatly if we lose, just from a competitive standpoint. Losing to SMU or the CUSA West teams sucks, but they are all better than us, whether by a little bit (UTSA) or by miles (La Tech and USM). Losing to any of those teams will not be surprising, while losing to Butt Cookman would be awfully deflating. Last year, I said that if we lost at SMU, there wouldn't be one other FBS team we would beat, all things being equal. Well, the Portland State prison-raping made that point even worse, but UTSA's 5th string QB made them a FCS-caliber level team to compete with and eventually sneak out a miraculous win. This year, its all on the Butt Cookman game. If we cannot beat them, we will probably be 0-12.

But even if we do go 1-11 or 0-12, it still doesn't mean that all is lost. We don't have Division 2 level QBs playing all season long anymore, with gameplans that Texas HS kids won't play in. We won't have a coach who is so far behind the times that the modern game makes him look lost and going crazy. Littrell and company get a full year to take advantage of just implementing a new mindset in the locker room and on the field, running off spares and bad characters. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that 2017 and beyond will be much better because of what 2016 will bring, even if its a winless season. Portland State, Dan McCarney's offense, and McNulty/Greer as your QB are the low point of the entire program and we have moved forward from there. Even going winless this season is still better than where we were in the 4th quarter of Homecoming last year, as the team looked up and saw a bought FCS opponent that nobody has ever heard of ahead by 59 points. It won't get worse than this, unless we lose to Butt Cookman by 60 points at home this year or any other FCS opponent in the coming seasons by 60 or more. Lean on this when times get tough this season--plus, it will help you get over the complete depression of knowing the same AD who watched over this catastrophe is still completely in charge for years to follow.

Army of Dad · May 9, 2016

1 hour ago, NTXCoog said:

True, but you factor in UH finished #8 in the AP and coaches poll, 13-1 record, and beat 4 teams that were ranked during the season including 2 teams ranked at the end of the season, I'd say that #34 looks like a major outlier and indicates a problem in their formula.

Meh, the number 1 RPI team isn't always a 1 seed in basketball and rarely wins the tournament.

Human polls have their problems too. Every ranking system does, and it's a good thing too. Gives fans something to talk about.

NTXCoog · May 9, 2016

49 minutes ago, Army of Dad said:

Meh, the number 1 RPI team isn't always a 1 seed in basketball and rarely wins the tournament.

Human polls have their problems too. Every ranking system does, and it's a good thing too. Gives fans something to talk about.

How often is the #1 seed (or any of the 1 or 2 seeds) in basketball ranked in the 30s in the RPI?

foutsrouts · May 9, 2016

I just don't believe that we're going to be that bad. We didn't lose a lot, and we're bringing in a bunch of new stuff both in personnel and philosophy. The fact is that no one flipping knows, and if our defense somehow shows up, we may not be so bad at all..

untjim1995 · May 9, 2016

Just now, foutsrouts said:

I just don't believe that we're going to be that bad. We didn't lose a lot, and we're bringing in a bunch of new stuff both in personnel and philosophy. The fact is that no one flipping knows, and if our defense somehow shows up, we may not be so bad at all..

Just a bit of advice here, but I would recommend preparing yourself for the worst and seeing if we can do anything better. Our schedule is brutal for our current program. We have one team, Butt Cookman, on our schedule that we should win. If we played Army, UTSA, or UTEP here, maybe we could figure on winning two or three of them, since they are probably our closest competition on the schedule right now. But they are all on the road, so maybe winning one game is reasonable to guess with this roster and brand new staff. SMU, Marshall, La Tech, USM, and MUTS are all home games, but they are all better than us to varying degrees, just like road opponents in Rice and WKU currently are as well. Florida pays the bills, obviously, so that one doesn't really count from a competitive standpoint right now.

I'd take 2 wins, with only a blowout to Florida and maybe one other opponent and feel like we have made SIGNIFICANT progress from where we were when Littrell took over. We have earned this ranking, I'm sad to admit. Its pretty obvious that we are almost completely void of developed talent on offense, no size or speed on defense, and a brand new coaching staff led by a head coach and OC that have never been in these positions before. If you judge this season solely on wins and losses, this year will be brutal to you. but if you can look past this and see the recruiting pick up and see the offense get better as it gets used to the Air Raid, as well as development on the defense and ST, this year will be very entertaining to see how the seeds of growth for the future get planted.

foutsrouts · May 9, 2016

6 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Just a bit of advice here, but I would recommend preparing yourself for the worst and seeing if we can do anything better. Our schedule is brutal for our current program. We have one team, Butt Cookman, on our schedule that we should win. If we played Army, UTSA, or UTEP here, maybe we could figure on winning two or three of them, since they are probably our closest competition on the schedule right now. But they are all on the road, so maybe winning one game is reasonable to guess with this roster and brand new staff. SMU, Marshall, La Tech, USM, and MUTS are all home games, but they are all better than us to varying degrees, just like road opponents in Rice and WKU currently are as well. Florida pays the bills, obviously, so that one doesn't really count from a competitive standpoint right now.

I'd take 2 wins, with only a blowout to Florida and maybe one other opponent and feel like we have made SIGNIFICANT progress from where we were when Littrell took over. We have earned this ranking, I'm sad to admit. Its pretty obvious that we are almost completely void of developed talent on offense, no size or speed on defense, and a brand new coaching staff led by a head coach and OC that have never been in these positions before. If you judge this season solely on wins and losses, this year will be brutal to you. but if you can look past this and see the recruiting pick up and see the offense get better as it gets used to the Air Raid, as well as development on the defense and ST, this year will be very entertaining to see how the seeds of growth for the future get planted.

Well, disagreement is a part of life. I can easily see us at 2-0 when Butt Cookman gets on the bus headed out of town. After that it might not be so pretty, but 3-1 coming home to face Middle is not out of the question for me. We shall see, but I do admit to just having a green margarita with my luncheon fajitas.

Aldo · May 9, 2016

Being an optimist, I see us improving to maybe #110 in the country by season's end at worst. That's a huge swing, statistically.

If Pedro makes my wildest dreams come true, we would be ranked 95.

Ben Gooding · May 9, 2016

1 hour ago, foutsrouts said:

I just don't believe that we're going to be that bad. We didn't lose a lot, and we're bringing in a bunch of new stuff both in personnel and philosophy. The fact is that no one flipping knows, and if our defense somehow shows up, we may not be so bad at all..

I agree with this. No one knows anything and these type rankings have shown to be far from 100% accurate over the years.

oldguystudent · May 9, 2016

A couple things to actually look forward to:

1) A sober head coach on the sidelines

2) A coach who appears to have watched a game since 1971

3) Hopefully, fewer than 80 players who have checked out and and prefer taking selfies on twitter during games over bothering with getting involved with the play on the field.

4) Green dresses and cowboy boots never, ever, under any circumstances get old

5) The giant fans standing outside the stadium surely will keep us cool in the hot months

Numbers 1-3 might not add up to much with current talent levels, but it's GOT to be better. Recall that we were the worst of the worst of the worst under Teflon Todd up to and through 2010. A new coach took us from 3 wins (2 under Chico) up to 5. Intangibles do matter. Keep fingers crossed and butt cheeks clenched. We just might take three this year.

Aldo · May 9, 2016

I expect to see an increase in our offense, so we'll be watching more fun games, but expecting Littrell to win more than 3 games this season is setting him up for failure.

Yes we have a lot of the same folks coming back, but a lot of the same folks performed poorly.

I would love for him to turn this ship around ASAP, but realistically we need to give him time.

I would also love to be wrong.

MGNation92 · May 9, 2016

1)The Alec Morris experiment fails miserably by game 4

2)Quinn Shanbour leads us to a bowl year 1 of the Littrell tenure,

3)Mason Fine comes in and gives him one hell of a run for his money to start(Shanbour being a senior and Fine a RS Freshman)

4)North Texas becomes safe haven for midget quarterbacks with D1 talent

5)????

6)Profit

UNT90 · May 9, 2016

18 hours ago, NTXCoog said:

Nope... that 2.6 wins is the worst projected record. Someone will have less wins than that.

And there is every possibility that somebody is UNT.

4 hours ago, MGNation92 said:

1)The Alec Morris experiment fails miserably by game 4

2)Quinn Shanbour leads us to a bowl year 1 of the Littrell tenure,

3)Mason Fine comes in and gives him one hell of a run for his money to start(Shanbour being a senior and Fine a RS Freshman)

4)North Texas becomes safe haven for midget quarterbacks with D1 talent

5)????

6)Profit

Congrats. You just came up with a more comprehensive plan than the Hattiesburg Hustler has in 15 years...

6 hours ago, foutsrouts said:

Well, disagreement is a part of life. I can easily see us at 2-0 when Butt Cookman gets on the bus headed out of town. After that it might not be so pretty, but 3-1 coming home to face Middle is not out of the question for me. We shall see, but I do admit to just having a green margarita with my luncheon fajitas.

Much greater chance of being 0-4 than 3-1.

I think UNT losses to SMU by 20. Butt Cookman will be a dog fight. This team won't win on the road. I'd kill for 1-3.

GrandGreen · May 9, 2016

I doubt this team is going to be good, but they will be a lot better. Look for NT to beat the double digits rating by mid-season.

pastorgrant · May 10, 2016

I believe there's a shot that we make a major improvement this year if we can get decent QB play. Major improvement could be anywhere from 3-6 wins. If that happens, we are going to have a lot of fun over the next few years.

BUT, I will be just fine with a 1-2 win team that fights, doesn't give up, and shows improvement from the start of the year to the finish. That will tell me that we have a good coach.

So, I've got my green colored glasses and my lime kool-aid, but I'm OK if my wing-tipped mother ship never comes.

oldguystudent · May 10, 2016

12 hours ago, pastorgrant said:

BUT, I will be just fine with a 1-2 win team that fights, doesn't give up, and shows improvement from the start of the year to the finish. That will tell me that we have a good coach.

It is understandable that players get frustrated going in at 0-9. At this point I'll do with players not sending out tweets during games berating the fifteen fans who came to see them play, only to watch them wooing their girlfriends on the sidelines during games, not giving one iota of a shit that the score is 66-7 against.