Stars matter: NFL draft edition

[BillySee58]

Obviously I like to maintain that offer lists are better indicators for our recruits because of how unevenly and infrequently our commits are evaluated across the sites. Still, it gets proven every year that despite the inevitable exceptions across hundreds of D1 signees, the higher rated recruits just pan out at a higher rate.

[HoustonEagle]

I think the real debate about the efficacy of stars is in regards to 2-3 star players.  The 4-5 star players have been analyzed and scrutinized to no end. Their success is not a foregone conclusion but it's a high probability.   Often times we see players with 2 stars that have had very little objective analyst work done but instead they get their rating due to recruiting visits and offers.  To say that stars don't matter is idiotic but in the same breath we have to say that being on the bubble between 2-3 stars does not really matter. 

[FirefightnRick]

We will never be in the discussion for the higher rated recruits...therefore I never waste my time worrying about them.

 

Rick

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

2 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

We will never be in the discussion for the higher rated recruits...therefore I never waste my time worrying about them.

 

Rick

Agree. 

Schools like ours have to find a coach who can install a system and continually find the right players for it.  As examples, I use these three:  TCU, Kansas State, and Texas Tech.

TCU
TCU was never going to get the best recruits.  It stumbled into Coach Gary Patterson when Dennis Franchione brought him along.  After Franchione left, Patterson doggedly pursued the best athletes to move onto the defensive side of the ball.  His goal was "defense first" and he succeeded in getting playing, mostly under-recruited who bought into it.

Kansas State 
Kansas State, while obviously helped by a multi-million dollar donation from a farmer who won the lottery, also cashed in by getting a coach in Bill Snyder whose stubborn willingness to the "run first" offense, "stop the run first" defense put perennial college joke Kansas State on the map for the better part of the last three decades.

On Snyder's offense you can be sure on one thing - there will usually be a big-bodied quarterback, who has an average arm, but has the ability to run 20 times a game to wear out most opposing defenses.

And, Snyder's defenses will always be hard-hitting and ball-hawking.  They will gamble and lose because of this.  But, they have won much more than they've lost with their gambling, hard-hitting defenses. 

Another thing Snyder always has is almost impeccable special teams.  Great kickers, dangerous returners, swarming cover teams. 

And Snyder does it in the most unconventional way - unheralded Kansas school boys mixed with loads of JUCOs. 

Texas Tech
It is well-known that Spike Dykes made Texas Tech consistently competitive with an annually stellar run game, and a hard-nosed defense lit by blue-collar overachievers like Zach Thomas.  Dykes was to the SWC what Snyder was to the Big 8 - a constant thorn in the flesh to the traditional powers who used to clobber their respective schools.

However, Mike Leach turned it up a notch by also winning consistently, but by passing...and passing and passing...and passing some more.  Like Patterson finding the right guys on defense, and Snyder finding the big running QBs and hard hitting defenders, Leach found relatively unheralded QBs and WRs and built Tech's fortune upon them.

Leach's only sin was virtually ignoring all other phases of the game - defense and special teams.  Going to fourth down when it would leave the special teams on the sideline or leave the defense defending much less real estate was Leach's calling card.  His ego also eventually got the better of him.   

What UNT Needs From Littrell
Because he will never compete for the best, or even second or third best players, Littrell has got to do what Patterson and Snyder did - find hard hitting defenders from either side of the high school ball - and find QBs and WRs as effective as Leach found for his version of the spread.

It is a tall order.

Our talent may not bear much NFL fruit at first.  However, eventually many of those outlier preps and JUCOs from Patterson, Snyder, and Leach's reigns did find their way into the NFL. 

The only variable now is time:  will it be kind to us or will it use us like a kitty litter box?
 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2016 by MeanGreenMailbox

[casual fan]

The 2nd player taken in this years NFL draft (Carson Wentz) had no FBS offers when he commited to North Dakota State.  

Central Michigan might have offered late, but Wentz was stuck on NDSU at that point.

The UNTs of the world have a near impossible task battling Big 5 conference schools for highly rated players.

There are some gems that are overlooked.  Finding them and then recognizing their talent is the real trick.

 

[3XL]

watching the draft highlights....I kept thinking

"I just wish we could be more Memphis-ish..."

[UNT90]

17 hours ago, casual fan said:

The 2nd player taken in this years NFL draft (Carson Wentz) had no FBS offers when he commited to North Dakota State.  

Central Michigan might have offered late, but Wentz was stuck on NDSU at that point.

The UNTs of the world have a near impossible task battling Big 5 conference schools for highly rated players.

There are some gems that are overlooked.  Finding them and then recognizing their talent is the real trick.

 

http://m.bismarcktribune.com/sports/college/bison-qb-wentz-kept-growing-in-high-school/article_a9f0d1a8-6180-11e4-846e-63ce1bc183e9.html

This article explains why. He was 5'8" 125lbs as a freshman, 5'10" as a Sophmore. Grew to 6'3" as a junior, but a broken throwing hand (I'm guessing on the throwing hand part) relegated him to being a one handed receiver his junior year. There was no tape of him at QB entering his senior season and  I don't think the UTs and Oregon's are hosting camps in Bismark, North Dakota. 

Grew to 6'5" his season season, but because no one knew anything about him, he had luke warm interest from FCS schools, much less any FBS interest. W. Michigan came in last second which made ND St. sit up and take notice and they got off their ass to lock him down. 

He is the unicorn. There aren't thousands of him out there. Don't use the huge exception to try and apply some weird rule.

[casual fan]

13 hours ago, UNT90 said:

http://m.bismarcktribune.com/sports/college/bison-qb-wentz-kept-growing-in-high-school/article_a9f0d1a8-6180-11e4-846e-63ce1bc183e9.html

This article explains why. He was 5'8" 125lbs as a freshman, 5'10" as a Sophmore. Grew to 6'3" as a junior, but a broken throwing hand (I'm guessing on the throwing hand part) relegated him to being a one handed receiver his junior year. There was no tape of him at QB entering his senior season and  I don't think the UTs and Oregon's are hosting camps in Bismark, North Dakota. 

Grew to 6'5" his season season, but because no one knew anything about him, he had luke warm interest from FCS schools, much less any FBS interest. W. Michigan came in last second which made ND St. sit up and take notice and they got off their ass to lock him down. 

He is the unicorn. There aren't thousands of him out there. Don't use the huge exception to try and apply some weird rule.

Last year in 2015 there were 133 FCS players on the week one NFL 53 man rosters.  There were another 45 FCS players on the practice squads.

I'll stand by my point that a lot of good high school players get overlooked every year and end up playing for small schools.  Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, etc, etc. etc.

[casual fan]

Speaking of small school players that were overlooked coming out of high school......

The Cowboys have 6 NFL hall of famers from small colleges.

Larry Allen played at Sonoma State, Charles Haley at James Madison, Jackie Smith at Northwestern Louisiana, etc.

My question is why Cliff Harris from Ouchita Baptist isn't also in the NFL Hall of Fame?

He was a 6 time pro bowler with 2 Super Bowl wins, 5 NFC championships, and was a member of the 1970s all-decade team.

He is still being overlooked.

[untjim1995]

Anybody else see that UTSA had a player drafted this year, David Morgan?

[Dr. Seuss]

On 4/29/2016 at 9:04 AM, FirefightnRick said:

We will never be in the discussion for the higher rated recruits...therefore I never waste my time worrying about them.

 

Rick

 

That's pathic just like everyone on this board.  If you don't think you will get a 4/5 star player, you won't.  Who wants to live a life where you're capped of achieving your goals?  Y'all can b_tch and complain about every little detail, but y'alls attitude is disgusting.  

[forevereagle]

3 hours ago, Dr. Seuss said:

That's pathic just like everyone on this board.

Everyone? Maybe stay away from absolutes.

[Dr. Seuss]

15 minutes ago, forevereagle said:

Everyone? Maybe stay away from absolutes.

Valid point, thank you for correcting me

[FirefightnRick]

5 hours ago, Dr. Seuss said:

That's pathic just like everyone on this board.  If you don't think you will get a 4/5 star player, you won't.  Who wants to live a life where you're capped of achieving your goals?  Y'all can b_tch and complain about every little detail, but y'alls attitude is disgusting.  

Agree.  ...and our attitude starts at the top and it is disgusting.  

 

Rick

 

 

[UTSA Fan]

12 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

Anybody else see that UTSA had a player drafted this year, David Morgan?

If I remember correctly, I heard he was a 0 star. Is that possible?

[UNT90]

On May 1, 2016 at 7:38 PM, casual fan said:

Last year in 2015 there were 133 FCS players on the week one NFL 53 man rosters.  There were another 45 FCS players on the practice squads.

I'll stand by my point that a lot of good high school players get overlooked every year and end up playing for small schools.  Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, etc, etc. etc.

How many of the them QBs?

Edited May 3, 2016 by UNT90

[RaiderEagle]

If only 8% of recruits are 4/5 stars then the vast majority of the 128 FBS schools won't even land one in any given class. Also, I've always wondered how much (if at all) recruiting sites take into account WHO is offering a kid.

It seems often times if a kid has offers from say UNT, SMU, UH and Rice they are a 2 maybe 3 star. However if UT, A&M and OU make an offer the kid suddenly becomes a 4 star. Maybe it's a misconception on my end or maybe the recruiting sites don't know enough about every potential recruit in the country and partially rely on top programs to shine the light on a recruit.

So the question is do top programs simply attract better talent or do top programs better assess talent, especially for their specific system? Like most things it's probably some of both. 

If top programs (all of which are in power 5 conferences or indepenents in ND's case) attract better talent there isn't a lot mid-major schools can do to catch up. But if top programs attribute part of their recruiting success to assessment of talent then in that regard a school like UNT can somewhat level the playing field. 

I think this at least partially explains the Boise States of college football. They seem to do a great job of identifying talent that fits what they need and then getting the most out of them while on campus. UT on the other hand (lately) seems to do the opposite.  

I realize these are just two examples but I think it helps show the importance of evaluating talent for your system. You could also consider the importance of strength and conditioning and the overall ability of a program to develop talent but that would require a lot more discussion. 

 

 

 

[casual fan]

2 hours ago, UNT90 said:

How many of the them QBs?

Right now there are 12 QBs on NFL rosters that were FCS or lower.  

Two of them came from small Texas colleges.

[Dr. Seuss]

12 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Agree.  ...and our attitude starts at the top and it is disgusting.  

 

Rick

 

 

 

No Rick, your attitude starts with you.  No one controls your own thoughts beside yourself. Other people can attribute to it, but it starts with you. 

Quit trying to find ever excuse in the book.  Highly rated players produce more first round picks than others.  What they do with that opportunity is up to them but the facts are the facts.

[FirefightnRick]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Seuss said:

No Rick, your attitude starts with you.  No one controls your own thoughts beside yourself. Other people can attribute to it, but it starts with you. 

Quit trying to find ever excuse in the book.  Highly rated players produce more first round picks than others.  What they do with that opportunity is up to them but the facts are the facts.

LOL..I assure you I'm perfectly ok with myself...but my attitude about North Texas athletics ...with  30 years following it,.. is that of low expectations of the current leadership and that has nothing to do with recruits.

As for recruits...we're getting our asses handed to us by schools who never bring in 4/5 stars,  Stars beside a recruits name doesnt matter, never has,..therefore I never waste my time worrying about wether we are bringing them in or not.

 

Rick

Edited May 3, 2016 by FirefightnRick

[untjim1995]

8 hours ago, RaiderEagle said:

If only 8% of recruits are 4/5 stars then the vast majority of the 128 FBS schools won't even land one in any given class. Also, I've always wondered how much (if at all) recruiting sites take into account WHO is offering a kid.

It seems often times if a kid has offers from say UNT, SMU, UH and Rice they are a 2 maybe 3 star. However if UT, A&M and OU make an offer the kid suddenly becomes a 4 star. Maybe it's a misconception on my end or maybe the recruiting sites don't know enough about every potential recruit in the country and partially rely on top programs to shine the light on a recruit.

So the question is do top programs simply attract better talent or do top programs better assess talent, especially for their specific system? Like most things it's probably some of both. 

If top programs (all of which are in power 5 conferences or indepenents in ND's case) attract better talent there isn't a lot mid-major schools can do to catch up. But if top programs attribute part of their recruiting success to assessment of talent then in that regard a school like UNT can somewhat level the playing field. 

I think this at least partially explains the Boise States of college football. They seem to do a great job of identifying talent that fits what they need and then getting the most out of them while on campus. UT on the other hand (lately) seems to do the opposite.  

I realize these are just two examples but I think it helps show the importance of evaluating talent for your system. You could also consider the importance of strength and conditioning and the overall ability of a program to develop talent but that would require a lot more discussion. 

 

 

 

Those large Power Schools have thousands of alumni and t-shirt fans who pay for monthly subscriptions to hear about the "inside" of the program they are following. For just $10 a month, you can subscribe to Orangebloods.com or TexAgs.com, both of who rate classes of kids from within the state. In Orangebloods' case, their lead guy, Geoff Ketchum, is the Rivals guy for this state. Now, put this together...I pay $10 a month to hear about everything at UT, the guy who runs the site also runs a state 100 list, and they want to see UT look as good as possible. Voila, Tyrone Swoopes is a 5-star QB out of a 2A school that goes winless because he chose UT. Voila, Texas has class ranked in the top 15 every year. And, voila, because those ratings are obviously biased, what looks a team full of highly rated talent is actually overrated and that's how losing has crept into the program--overrated prima donnas that think a UT scholarship is their ticket to the NFL, except its proving to be the exact opposite on the field and scoreboard. Same thing happened to A&M after the Johnny Football craze and getting into the SEC. Overrating kids because they are going to the SEC doesn't change the fact that A&M's system isn't built to ever beat all of the SEC West powerhouses they play each year. What it boils down to is the money that these fanbases will throw out to people just to get some "great" news actually skews the ratings, causing higher expectations from these classes than there really should be. This is, of course, only a problem for power schools with large fanbases. Nothing compares at all for the G5s, who barely get any interest from media in the college football world to begin with. And those media members admit that they spend 85% of their time covering the power schools. And its why I will be so glad when the day comes that our G5 schools will no longer have to play the NFL-lite schools. Its a bought fight, from before the game is scheduled.

[casual fan]

I got to looking and counted 26 players from non FBS schools in Texas that are now on NFL teams.  

West Texas A&M has 9.

Consider less than 10% of the FBS players make it to the NFL

That means there were probably 250 players or so that were FBS quality playing for those Texas teams.

Talented high school players get overlooked every year.

No stars doesn't always mean no talent.

[Army of Dad]

1 minute ago, casual fan said:

I got to looking and counted 26 players from non FBS schools in Texas that are now on NFL teams.  

West Texas A&M has 9.

Consider less than 10% of the FBS players make it to the NFL

That means there were probably 250 players or so that were FBS quality playing for those Texas teams.

Talented high school players get overlooked every year.

No stars doesn't always mean no talent.

Yes, but were those players ineligible to play D1 because of grades?

[untjim1995]

I was real big on Chris Thomsen, who used to be the HC at ACU and was the OC at Arizona State, because he had sent kids from ACU to the NFL. If you can do that at ACU or WTAM, you can do it anywhere else in the state with better facilities and conference affiliation.

Still think Littrell has a fine pedigree, and Thomsen or anyone else we would have hired would still have the massive RV-as-the-AD problem, but at least Thomsen has experience as a college head coach before and won. Hopefully, Littrell can become a winner, too, even if the AD is a moron of the highest order. But for that to happen, Littrell has to bring in talent that will stay here and find players that can be developed into talent. If he does that, the NFL draft will eventually see some UNT players be included in the years ahead.

[casual fan]

On 5/5/2016 at 10:35 AM, Army of Dad said:

Yes, but were those players ineligible to play D1 because of grades?

All of them must have been ineligible because FBS schools never overlook talented players.

Oh, wait a minute.  Josh McCown started out at smu but transferred to Sam Houston State.

He passed for 3,481 yards and 32 TDs as a senior at Sam Houston and won the Walter Payton Award given to the top D 1-AA player.

Cooper Kupp won it last year and has moved past Jerry Rice's FCS total.  He will be a senior next year at Eastern Washington.

Interestingly enough both Kupp's father and grandfather were on different Dallas Cowboy rosters.