Opening In The Sun Belt

Greenrex · March 1, 2016

Idaho and New Mexico State to leave Sun Belt after 2017
http://footballscoop.com/news/source-idaho-and-new-mexico-state-to-leave-sun-belt-after-2017/

Harry · March 1, 2016

4 minutes ago, Greenrex said:

Idaho and New Mexico State to leave Sun Belt after 2017
http://footballscoop.com/news/source-idaho-and-new-mexico-state-to-leave-sun-belt-after-2017/

Paging @Arkstfan

I would guess Idaho goes back to Big Sky league for football. No clue on NMSU or who the Belt will replace them with... maybe Liberty?

Stix · March 1, 2016

Cue the groundless speculation about UTEP leaving for MWC, with NMSU replacing them in CUSA...

THOR · March 1, 2016

27 minutes ago, Harry said:

Paging @Arkstfan

I would guess Idaho goes back to Big Sky league for football. No clue on NMSU or who the Belt will replace them with... maybe Liberty?

coastal carolina is coming aboard...sucks for nmsu...at least idaho kinda had an idea or plan to drop down...this has to be a surprise for nmsu

18 minutes ago, Stix said:

Cue the groundless speculation about UTEP leaving for MWC, with NMSU replacing them in CUSA...

at least, we wouldn't have to play all 3 texas school on the road or at home in the same year anymore...

oldguystudent · March 2, 2016

Quote

“This 10-team football league will maximize the Sun Belt’s on-field performance, push us to the top ranking of our four peer conferences, and will give us the best opportunity to soon place a team in one of the College Football Playoff’s New Year’s Day bowl games,” said Sun Belt Commissioner Karl Benson.

A: Top ranking of the P5 conferences. Laugh...out...loud

B: A Sun Belt team in a New Year's Day Bowl (with the word "playoff" subtly included). Guffaw...out...loud

C: Karl Benson. KARL BENSON! is kicking football teams out of his conference? Wait for it. He'll be crawling back to Las Cruces and Moscow in about five years after half the Sun Belt has fled for the newly depleted CUSA.

Nobody kills football like Karl Benson kills football. F that guy.

Arkstfan · March 2, 2016

The interesting thing that came out of this is that the G5 formula has changed. It's no longer $1 million per team up to $12 million plus performance pool money, plus money for an Access appearance. The formula has changed to $10 million per conference, money saved from that added to the performance pool, plus the money for an Access appearance.

The economics reward a 10 team league. With the Sun Belt being the only G5 how on earth would that change have been approved? Simple. Putting more in performance pool makes it more profitable to #1 or #2 in the performance pool than to have the larger guaranteed payment. In other words, in most years, AAC and MWC are better off with a smaller guaranteed payment in return for the bigger performance payout. The Sun Belt at 10 (with Coastal coming in) is better off getting $1 million per school guaranteed from the $10 million payment and seeing a larger performance payout even if the league finishes 5th. MAC at 12 is always worse off unless they finish 1 or 2. CUSA at 14 is always worse off unless they finish first.

How bad have Idaho and NMSU been? In 2014 Georgia State went 0-8 in the Sun Belt. Georgia State over 2014-2015 combined won more conference games than either Idaho or NMSU did over those two years (also bested ULM). The Sun Belt eliminated two of the three worst performing schools over the past two years which should improve the odds of moving up in the performance pool.

As to making Access, it is no more laughable than to think CUSA can make Access. Marshall undefeated spent one week as the Access front-runner trying to hold off a multiple loss Boise State. Using the Massey composite, only one CUSA (WKU) was rated ahead of the top TWO Sun Belt in last year's final numbers, same was true of the BCS composite of six ratings which is provided to the selection committee and is used to distribute the performance money. Whether it is Sun Belt, MAC or CUSA, the path to Access is always going to require that the champion of AAC and champion of MWC have more losses.

As to the fate of the two schools.

Idaho is already Big Sky for all other sports, they were 1400 miles from the nearest Sun Belt school (NMSU), there are only two independents within 1400 miles (NMSU and BYU) so the likely outcome is Idaho will reclassify FCS for the 2018 season. We will have a clearer idea by May 4th since the Big Sky commissioner has said Idaho needs to notify the league by that date if they intend to play in the Big Sky.

NMSU is a tougher call. They have the luxury of home and home deals with New Mexico and UTEP but the reality is they have historically been bad when affiliated with leagues to their east and worse when affiliated with leagues to their west in football. They might survive as an independent long enough to see if there is some realignment breakthrough in the next few years but with the economics changing to favor 10 team leagues CUSA can lose four and likely not feel compelled to replace. MWC can lose two and not feel any urgency. Based on media reports, MWC turned down overtures from UTEP and Rice so if MWC were to be in a position where they felt the need to expand, you have to think MWC calls those two before NMSU.

If Big XII adds two AAC, the AAC can sit at 10 or take two CUSA or UMass plus a CUSA or even Army plus UMass. If they take two CUSA its improbable that CUSA would expand, if they took one I suspect with the CFP funding situation and claimed drop in TV revenue that CUSA would tough it out at 13 and privately cross their fingers hope that falling revenue means the UAB situation resolves to get CUSA to 12.

So hanging around for realignment is a very very long shot proposition for NMSU. Their AD says an FCS league has called to assess their interest. Rumor mill says Summit has offered membership as well. The WAC is such a cluster now that I would think they are actively seeking to leave. Summit in all sports MVFC for football might not be a horrible option (4 of 10 members are Summit) and they would probably gladly join the Valley all sports were that an option.

5 hours ago, oldguystudent said:

A: Top ranking of the P5 conferences. Laugh...out...loud

B: A Sun Belt team in a New Year's Day Bowl (with the word "playoff" subtly included). Guffaw...out...loud

C: Karl Benson. KARL BENSON! is kicking football teams out of his conference? Wait for it. He'll be crawling back to Las Cruces and Moscow in about five years after half the Sun Belt has fled for the newly depleted CUSA.

Nobody kills football like Karl Benson kills football. F that guy.

Seriously? 1994-2012 the WAC lost 17 members on his watch. 2002-2015 Bankowsky lost 15. Let's not rewrite history.

WAC pulled apart in large part because the rules favored 12 team leagues. Pac-12 raiding MWC and Big East raiding MWC cost the MWC TCU and Utah and caused BYU to go independent. MWC's desire to get to 12 cost the WAC members. CUSA being raided repeatedly cost the WAC members as CUSA desired to get to 12 (and later to 14). That left Idaho and NMSU without homes.

The economics changing to favor 10 (better CFP money, still can do title game) made it so that there was no financial benefit to extending Idaho and NMSU's contract past the 2017 expiration.