MGB: Dave Campbell's Texas Football projects UNT's record

[UTSA Fan]

7 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

A good QB hides a lot of flaws. For starters, offensive line and defensive efficiency will both see drastic improvement with a better QB. Yes, our defense very well may still be subpar, but having a QB that can put points on the board puts pressure on opposing offenses and takes them out of their game plan and comfort zone. Therefore, possibly playing into the hands of a bad defense rather than toying with them while sitting on a comfortable lead. Offensive line improves because there is competence at QB by being able to get the ball out on time and on target. That moves the chains and that puts D's on their heels. It gets them reeling and then RB's start to find gaping holes. A what you called, "very good QB", can make a World of difference. Granted, I am not sure if Alec Morris will provide that for us. We can only hope. 

Thanks! That's encouraging. It helps me when I can conceptualize the change and know what to look for on the field.

[RBP79]

I don't think you can pick the number of wins right now. Between nearly all new coaches and a lot of incoming juco and transfers no way you can accurately predict next year. Wait for spring practice...that will give some insight....

[UTSA Fan]

18 minutes ago, RBP79 said:

I don't think you can pick the number of wins right now. Between nearly all new coaches and a lot of incoming juco and transfers no way you can accurately predict next year. Wait for spring practice...that will give some insight....

Primarily due to qb play and scheme change? To your point, what would the typical transition time be for a JUCO, spring, 1\2 season, etc.? I can certainly understand a scheme change and new qb having a transition period. 

Edited February 27, 2016 by UTSA Fan

[Ben Gooding]

55 minutes ago, UTSA Fan said:

Primarily due to qb play and scheme change? To your point, what would the typical transition time be for a JUCO, spring, 1\2 season, etc.? I can certainly understand a scheme change and new qb having a transition period. 

A lot of people think JUCO transfers don't grow into the speed of the game until their 2nd year at the FBS level. I think that is just something that people around here say. There are JUCO's all around the country that come in and have immediate impacts, but those may be outliers and the folks around here are probably right when they say year 2. 

Edited February 27, 2016 by Ben Gooding

[TIgreen01]

I expect the offense to be dramatically improved, but that defense we fielded last year isn't going to be as quick to respond.  After all the quit that was on display last year it is going to take more than one offseason to complete the requisite house cleaning.  Hate to say that about our players, but they've got a lot to prove after last season's embarrassment.

[wardly]

So why is having a lot of returning starters from the worst team in D1a  a good thing? They were terrible  starting last year. How much better can they get?[ 3 to 5 wins, but no more than that.]

[GOMG2013]

8 minutes ago, wardly said:

So why is having a lot of returning starters from the worst team in D1a  a good thing? They were terrible  starting last year. How much better can they get?[ 3 to 5 wins, but no more than that.]

Because in a lot of cases it was their first time ever starting for a full season.  Some of them, it was their first time ever playing D1 football. 

Now most of them have a full season of playing D1 football under their belt.  

[Ben Gooding]

13 minutes ago, wardly said:

So why is having a lot of returning starters from the worst team in D1a  a good thing? They were terrible  starting last year. How much better can they get?[ 3 to 5 wins, but no more than that.]

I get your agenda to minimize expectations, but, uh, experience is kind of a big deal. Nice try, Rick. 

[Got5onIt]

23 hours ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Too low, by half.  With the OOC schedule and C-USun Belt Conference, we'll go 6-6.  The only thing that would derail a 6-6 season is an injury to Alec Morris. 

Morris hasnt played a lick in 5 years. i don't think he'll be the sure starter after spring ball.

3-9 or 2-10 is a fair prediction 

Edited February 27, 2016 by Got5onIt

[Matt from A700]

19 hours ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

SMU, Army, Bethune-Cookman, UTSA, UTEP, Rice...throw in Western Kentucky and La Tech breaking in a new QBs as well.

Three of the four OOCs are winnable.  So are UTSA, UTEP, and Rice.  Pick off WKU or La Tech as well, and there is your six.

Believe in the Mean Green...because the schedule and conference are favorable. 

 

21 hours ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Guys, be realistic, please.  We don't play in the SEC.  We play in the Sunbelt 2.0, okay?

Out Of Conference:
SMU, Bethune-Cookman, Army, Florida.

I don't care how bad the team was in 2015, in 2016 we will have a quarterback, Morris, who can complete a five yard pass - which is the major skill needed in this type of offense.  Just having that alone will cure 99% of the offensive ills from last year. 

I'm also making the huge leap of faith that Morris, after four years with Saban, is probably a bit more tuned in to what it takes off the field for a QB to be successful, and continues to do that here.  He will be the hero of 2016...if he isn't injured.

Do not be wholly shocked if we are 3-1 out of conference, then.  At worst, we'll be 2-2.

C-USunBelt
Winning four of eight conference games in a conference this pitiful really isn't asking much.  Again, had we a quarterback in 2015 who could simply put the ball into the hands of a receiver five yard within the line of scrimmage last year, many ills would have been cured.

If we don't win six this year, 2017 is a real problem because we start at square one again at QB.  (Sorry, I'm not sold on the little Oklahoma kid being the answer...I do hope he fits in somewhere along the way, but not at QB).

 

A successful 2016 - which, to me, mean getting bowl eligible - makes us more attractive to higher up QB recruits, both prep and JUCO, so that 2017 is in the hands of another newcomer, but a newcomer with much better upside than any back up QB on the 2016 roster.

#HITSIX


 

Count me in for hopping on the bowl season bandwagon.

 

I'd be happy with one, just one bowl game before I graduate...

[UNT90]

On February 26, 2016 at 0:44 PM, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Too low, by half.  With the OOC schedule and C-USun Belt Conference, we'll go 6-6.  The only thing that would derail a 6-6 season is an injury to Alec Morris. 

Lol. 

Green Kool Aid much?

UNT will have significant issues on defense this year. There isn't a proven QB on the roster. Three wins is about right, and may be a little high.

 

Edited February 27, 2016 by UNT90

[mgfan]

100 years of football and 6-6 is a "good season". 

[EagleMBA]

One of the things near the top of my list is STOP THE MAJOR ASS-WHIPPINGS!! Play COMPETITIVE football and win some games would be a reachable goal for this season, IMO. Do that and attendance/revenues will pick up too.

Edited February 27, 2016 by EagleMBA

[wardly]

Dick,experience is only good if you had a good experience, but you just keep dreaming. For example, I have had several bad experiences with you, and it hasn't gotten better.Rick.

Edited February 27, 2016 by wardly

[Ben Gooding]

14 minutes ago, wardly said:

Dick,experience is only good if you had a good experience, but you just keep dreaming. For example, I have had several bad experiences with you, and it hasn't gotten better.Rick.

Experiences vary. Settle down on the name calling. 

I am not dreaming. I just can't call 3 wins a "good" season like some folks. 

[flyonthewall]

Welcome back ward, welcome back.  

[wardly]

Coming from some one who posted for me OGFO, you seem a little sensitive when referred to by your nickname, but perhaps we both need to grow up.I am not saying 3 wins is a "good " season, but in business goals and objectives must be reasonable and obtainable with a little pie in the sky.RBP79 is the smartest guy in the room, or in this case the board. We really do need to wait until spring training is over to have some sort of educated idea as to what our realistic expectations should be.  

[GMG24]

It'll be Morris or Shanbour 

[Mike Jackson]

On February 26, 2016 at 3:28 PM, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Guys, be realistic, please.  We don't play in the SEC.  We play in the Sunbelt 2.0, okay?

Out Of Conference:
SMU, Bethune-Cookman, Army, Florida.

I don't care how bad the team was in 2015, in 2016 we will have a quarterback, Morris, who can complete a five yard pass - which is the major skill needed in this type of offense.  Just having that alone will cure 99% of the offensive ills from last year. 

I'm also making the huge leap of faith that Morris, after four years with Saban, is probably a bit more tuned in to what it takes off the field for a QB to be successful, and continues to do that here.  He will be the hero of 2016...if he isn't injured.

Do not be wholly shocked if we are 3-1 out of conference, then.  At worst, we'll be 2-2.

C-USunBelt
Winning four of eight conference games in a conference this pitiful really isn't asking much.  Again, had we a quarterback in 2015 who could simply put the ball into the hands of a receiver five yard within the line of scrimmage last year, many ills would have been cured.

If we don't win six this year, 2017 is a real problem because we start at square one again at QB.  (Sorry, I'm not sold on the little Oklahoma kid being the answer...I do hope he fits in somewhere along the way, but not at QB).

 

A successful 2016 - which, to me, mean getting bowl eligible - makes us more attractive to higher up QB recruits, both prep and JUCO, so that 2017 is in the hands of another newcomer, but a newcomer with much better upside than any back up QB on the 2016 roster.

#HITSIX


 

The OOC that should be a lock is Bethune Cookman.  Remember Alec Morris can only throw the ball accurately.  He can't play defense, play special teams, make receivers run the right routes or catch the ball.   I will be very surprised if UNT beats Army.  SMU looks like the only game that can go either way.

CUSA: I only see 2 wins max.  We don't see the first "winnable" CUSA game till Oct 29 at Rice.  All the rest of the winnable CUSA games come late in the year.   Also of those winnable games UTEP and UTSA are on the road.   Please correct me if I am wrong but I don't believe we have won in San Antonio yet.    I see 4 games for this team maximum.  But anything is possible but it going to take a lot of breaks for this team to get to 5 or 6  wins.   And if we don't beat SMU 6 wins are virtually impossible.

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

On 2/27/2016 at 2:14 PM, UNT90 said:

Lol. 

Green Kool Aid much?

UNT will have significant issues on defense this year. There isn't a proven QB on the roster. Three wins is about right, and may be a little high.

 

Weak OOC and C-USunbelt.  It isn't rocket science.  Besides, I've already posted that if we can't win over the next four years, we need to give up and drop down because fail for four more years will be indicative of where our talent level is no matter what kind of coach we've hired.

[UNT90]

2 minutes ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Weak OOC and C-USunbelt.  It isn't rocket science.  Besides, I've already posted that if we can't win over the next four years, we need to give up and drop down because fail for four more years will be indicative of where our talent level is no matter what kind of coach we've hired.

Don't give up until we have a new AD. Once that cancer is gone, things might take off.

Might.

[GOMG2013]

On 2/27/2016 at 4:15 PM, wardly said:

experience is only good if you had a good experience, 

This is wrong on many levels.  There's lots of situations where things are learned by making mistakes and going through a tough time.

If we just keep it to sports, this is still an incorrect statement.  In most cases, a young player is going to learn by getting their butt handed to him at some point in his or her career.  Either in games, in practice, or by playing better competition to get better.

[untjim1995]

If we win 3 games this year, I'll fully believe we are ahead of schedule by a full year. Southern Miss went 1-11 in the first year of Todd Monken's tenure, which followed an 0-12 season. The following year saw USM go 3-9. Then, last season, they won CUSA West and went to the HoD Bowl. That's our path. SMU goes 1-11 in June Jones/interim coach's last season, changes coaches, and Chad Morris sees them win 2 games. This year, they should get to the 4-5 win plateau. That's what I pray we are following.

As HFS mentioned, if we are firing Seth Littrell in four years because we still cannot win anything of major note and cannot fix recruiting, the program's FBS future really needs to be considered. Because it will be all too obvious that this level of play just isn't one we can compete at if we are looking back in 2019 and saying we had 1 winning season in the last 15 years and a total of 4 winning seasons in nearly 25 years of FBS play.

[GOMG2013]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

If we win 3 games this year, I'll fully believe we are ahead of schedule by a full year. Southern Miss went 1-11 in the first year of Todd Monken's tenure, which followed an 0-12 season. The following year saw USM go 3-9. Then, last season, they won CUSA West and went to the HoD Bowl. That's our path. SMU goes 1-11 in June Jones/interim coach's last season, changes coaches, and Chad Morris sees them win 2 games. This year, they should get to the 4-5 win plateau. That's what I pray we are following.

So Miss has been referenced several times on this board as if that's the only way we can turn this thing around in one season.  There's several examples over the years where one of the worst teams in the league made the jump to 6 wins or more.  Is not impossible like some are claiming...And this is only G5.

2013: UNLV 2 wins to 6...Tulane 2 wins to 7...S alabama 2 wins to 6...

2014: Temple 2 wins to 6...UTEP 2 wins to 7...W Michigan 1 win to 8...memphis 3 wins to 10

2015: Tulsa 2 to 6...UCONN 2 to 6...ga state 1 to 6

So based on this trend over the last 3 seasons, 3 G5 teams will make the jump from being bottom of the NCAA to bowl eligible.  Whether Littrell and staff can coach and get UNT to be one of those teams is the question.

[NM Green]

Exactly.  Last year was the worst team I had seen since following for 29 years.  We will not be that bad and will be knocking on door for bowl game.   Get there not sure but 4-5 wins yes 6 with some creativity.  I personally feel we will look like tech where we score and can't stop a feather.  So outscore them boys.

gmg