MGB: Dave Campbell's Texas Football projects UNT's record

[Brett Vito]

MGB: Here is the first of many projections to come

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2016/02/and-the-first-2016-season-prediction-is-in-dctf-goes-with-3-9.html/

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

Too low, by half.  With the OOC schedule and C-USun Belt Conference, we'll go 6-6.  The only thing that would derail a 6-6 season is an injury to Alec Morris. 

[greenminer]

Take away the 2013 season, and we have averaged 2.7 wins since our final NO Bowl appearance.

I think some people are going to say "I'll believe it when I see it."

[EagleMBA]

10 minutes ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Too low, by half.  With the OOC schedule and C-USun Belt Conference, we'll go 6-6.  The only thing that would derail a 6-6 season is an injury to Alec Morris. 

Whoa!! Pass the pipe! For THIS season with so many changes and adaptations, 3 -5 wins would be a great performance by this team and this coaching staff. I'm looking for more competitive games...that alone would be a big improvement THIS year. My expectations don't rise to your level until the following season. JMO.

[Aldo]

For us to beat 3 programs next year, would mean that we beat 3 programs that are currently better than us (might be a stretch to include BC).

It's a step in the right direction, but baby football yeezy I want to win more than 3 games.

[GOMG2013]

 

1 hour ago, Aldo said:

For us to beat 3 programs next year, would mean that we beat 3 programs that are currently better than us (might be a stretch to include BC).

It's a step in the right direction, but baby football yeezy I want to win more than 3 games.

UTEP was not better than us.  Chico gave that game away for some reason. 

Even if you start Mcnulty because it's senior day or whatever, it still does not explain greer coming in and throwing the pick 6.  And coach mac was nowhere to be around to blame.  CHICO started mcnulty and left him in there a whole half and we were only up 3-0 at the half.

Then we were up 10-6 after a punt return for a TD, then CHICO puts greer in to put us in the hole again with a pick 6.  Drive started in UTEP territory and we should have at least gotten a field goal out of it.

Defense and special teams scored 14.  Offense (without Mac around)...3.  

And how is UTSA better than us?  I guess you mean for us to win 6 games, we have to beat 3 teams that are currently better.

[Aldo]

5 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

 I guess you mean for us to win 6 games, we have to beat 3 teams that are currently better.

For us to win 6 games, we need to beat 6 teams better than us.

We are the 2nd worst football team only ahead of UCF. That puts everyone (again, idk about BC) on our schedule as better.

[GreenTexan13]

It's Seth's first year, this is understandable. I hope he understands the importance of a win against SMU and UTSA. Dan McCarney sure didn't...

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

Guys, be realistic, please.  We don't play in the SEC.  We play in the Sunbelt 2.0, okay?

Out Of Conference:
SMU, Bethune-Cookman, Army, Florida.

I don't care how bad the team was in 2015, in 2016 we will have a quarterback, Morris, who can complete a five yard pass - which is the major skill needed in this type of offense.  Just having that alone will cure 99% of the offensive ills from last year. 

I'm also making the huge leap of faith that Morris, after four years with Saban, is probably a bit more tuned in to what it takes off the field for a QB to be successful, and continues to do that here.  He will be the hero of 2016...if he isn't injured.

Do not be wholly shocked if we are 3-1 out of conference, then.  At worst, we'll be 2-2.

C-USunBelt
Winning four of eight conference games in a conference this pitiful really isn't asking much.  Again, had we a quarterback in 2015 who could simply put the ball into the hands of a receiver five yard within the line of scrimmage last year, many ills would have been cured.

If we don't win six this year, 2017 is a real problem because we start at square one again at QB.  (Sorry, I'm not sold on the little Oklahoma kid being the answer...I do hope he fits in somewhere along the way, but not at QB).

 

A successful 2016 - which, to me, mean getting bowl eligible - makes us more attractive to higher up QB recruits, both prep and JUCO, so that 2017 is in the hands of another newcomer, but a newcomer with much better upside than any back up QB on the 2016 roster.

#HITSIX


 

[greenjoe]

Name 'em.  Name the 3-6 teams we beat this season. 

 

GO MEAN GREEN

[UTSA Fan]

25 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

 

UTEP was not better than us.  Chico gave that game away for some reason. 

Even if you start Mcnulty because it's senior day or whatever, it still does not explain greer coming in and throwing the pick 6.  And coach mac was nowhere to be around to blame.  CHICO started mcnulty and left him in there a whole half and we were only up 3-0 at the half.

Then we were up 10-6 after a punt return for a TD, then CHICO puts greer in to put us in the hole again with a pick 6.  Drive started in UTEP territory and we should have at least gotten a field goal out of it.

Defense and special teams scored 14.  Offense (without Mac around)...3.  

And how is UTSA better than us?  I guess you mean for us to win 6 games, we have to beat 3 teams that are currently better.

Their  improvement will be they wouldn't all be freshmen and sophmores and have a year of college strength, conditioning and experience, they'll have a scholarship QB vs a walk-on. The Coaching staff is an upgrade (several SEC and an NFL coach as OC and QB coach) without a major scheme change and dropped the killer OOC games that caused them to start the year hurt.

[medpilot21]

DTCF again with blah blah blah..The truth is (and not exactly a shock to anyone) that we are starting over from scratch. New system, new coaching staff, new offensive system, new QB, Goodbye TE's, JUCO's on D must adapt to a defensive scheme that bends and wont break, and 0 all conference players. We know it's time to be realists and simply HOPE for 3 wins, but that is not a bad thing right now? We may only win a few games this year but we will show more aggressive play calling and score more points. That will be exciting football to watch, even in the games we lose. It takes time and a real financial investment to make a football team better, and this season we have committed to both.The future is where are looking now, and I'm good with it.

Of course anything is possible. My personal request of coach Litrell.. please at least beat SMUsed AND the Highway Chickens this season. 50 -14 in each game would be nice, but I'll take a win by 3 if that seems greedy. 

GMG

[GOMG2013]

5 minutes ago, UTSA Fan said:

Their  improvement will be they wouldn't all be freshmen and sophmores and have a year of college strength, conditioning and experience, they'll have a scholarship QB vs a walk-on. The Coaching staff is an upgrade (several SEC and an NFL coach as OC and QB coach) without a major scheme change and dropped the killer OOC games that caused them to start the year hurt.

Are you really doing this?  Pumping up UTSA...no comment.  I guess silence is better than people posting on this forum till spring practice comes around...

[NTAlum09]

Alec Morris will ignite this offense

Don't forget to buy your popcorn and soda pop.

[VideoEagle]

Personally, I'll be happy with 3 wins this season. We were awful last year - did you know we only won one game? I'm hoping to compete for a bowl in '17 and for a conference championship in '19, but next year anything over 3 wins is a bonus. 

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

1 hour ago, greenjoe said:

Name 'em.  Name the 3-6 teams we beat this season. 

 

GO MEAN GREEN

SMU, Army, Bethune-Cookman, UTSA, UTEP, Rice...throw in Western Kentucky and La Tech breaking in a new QBs as well.

Three of the four OOCs are winnable.  So are UTSA, UTEP, and Rice.  Pick off WKU or La Tech as well, and there is your six.

Believe in the Mean Green...because the schedule and conference are favorable. 

[UTSA Fan]

2 hours ago, GOMG2013 said:

Are you really doing this?  Pumping up UTSA...no comment.  I guess silence is better than people posting on this forum till spring practice comes around...

God the insecurity. I answered a damn question-thanks for not commenting. I will say it AGAIN ...I root for both teams, I'm here to get connected to UNT, as someone who knows very little about UNT I come on here- not to bash, troll, etc. I never said UTSA was x, would do x, etc. People come on here asking questions and I answered one. Good grief.

Edited February 26, 2016 by UTSA Fan

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

Remember, too, that we've got an Okie for Muskogee leading us now, and I suspect he'll bring this attitude:

 

[GrandGreen]

2 hours ago, Aldo said:

For us to win 6 games, we need to beat 6 teams better than us.

We are the 2nd worst football team only ahead of UCF. That puts everyone (again, idk about BC) on our schedule as better.

That was last year.  NT or nobody else is going to beat 6 teams better than they are.  Football is not stagnate, NT will be a totally different team next year in terms of coaching, schemes, experience and motivation.   No, there is no way that the talent level has been overhauled; but hopefully a few key pieces have been upgraded.   

I don't expect miracles, and frankly wouldn't be surprised at anything below 7 wins.  However, CUSA is not a powerhouse conference and it doesn't take a long time to change a teams position.  

[UTSA Fan]

1 hour ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

SMU, Army, Bethune-Cookman, UTSA, UTEP, Rice...throw in Western Kentucky and La Tech breaking in a new QBs as well.

Three of the four OOCs are winnable.  So are UTSA, UTEP, and Rice.  Pick off WKU or La Tech as well, and there is your six.

Believe in the Mean Green...because the schedule and conference are favorable. 

I'm am shocked at how Rice has cratered.  I think even their recuiting class was ranked last in CUSA.

Edited February 27, 2016 by UTSA Fan

[Ben Gooding]

I can see anything from 0-12 to 11-1 (we aren't beating Florida). I want to see Alec Morris in the Spring game throw the football around with some confidence and I will state an opinion then. 

[UTSA Fan]

Assuming an average offense and defense, how much of a difference (in wins) would a very good qb make?

[Eagleisland]

Dave Campbell's Texas Football is fun to read, but they predicted North Texas to finish ahead of Southern Miss. last year in the CUSA, Rice to finish 2nd in the West, and UTSA to finish in the middle of the pack. I wouldn't worry too much either way about their pre-season selections. Phil Steele on the other hand, picked UTSA last in the West and Marshall, WKU, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech to be the top teams last year. I much prefer to see what Steele has to say.

[Ben Gooding]

35 minutes ago, UTSA Fan said:

Assuming an average offense and defense, how much of a difference (in wins) would a very good qb make?

A good QB hides a lot of flaws. For starters, offensive line and defensive efficiency will both see drastic improvement with a better QB. Yes, our defense very well may still be subpar, but having a QB that can put points on the board puts pressure on opposing offenses and takes them out of their game plan and comfort zone. Therefore, possibly playing into the hands of a bad defense rather than toying with them while sitting on a comfortable lead. Offensive line improves because there is competence at QB by being able to get the ball out on time and on target. That moves the chains and that puts D's on their heels. It gets them reeling and then RB's start to find gaping holes. A what you called, "very good QB", can make a World of difference. Granted, I am not sure if Alec Morris will provide that for us. We can only hope. 

[GOMG2013]

7 hours ago, Eagleisland said:

Phil Steele on the other hand, picked UTSA last in the West and Marshall, WKU, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech to be the top teams last year. I much prefer to see what Steele has to say.

I agree.  Steele does an actual analysis on the teams and considers returning starters and player movement.  His business is betting, so he has to have a reputation to make predictions based on unknowns.  

Steele puts more weight on returning starters.  He had a listing of all the teams recently.  Of course UNT is among the top in CUSA.  If I had to guess, he would have UNT at 4-8, 5-7.